Falkirk Council

School Roll Projections:Ratios of pupils from new

build developments – a direct method

Jennifer Boag

Senior Research Officer

Falkirk Council

September 2008

Falkirk Council

Pupil ratios from new build

Features of the Scottish education system

Defined school catchments Placing requests Single annual P1 intake Denominational and non-denominational system Primary – aged 5-11; secondary aged 12+

Falkirk Council

Pupil ratios from new build

Falkirk school roll projections method

Project the number of P1s Roll forward existing rolls Add estimate of pupils from new build

Falkirk Council

Pupil ratios from new build

Why revise the pupil ratios?

Previous ratios based on 1987 study Concern about the number of pupils being

generated by new build developments Increasing amount of new build in area Complaint from developer about unilateral

change to ratio being used

Falkirk Council

Pupil ratios from new build

New method of calculating pupil ratios (1)

Identify all new build developments under construction or completed within the last 10 years

Match children on school rolls by address to new build

Calculate the ratio of children to new build on each development

Falkirk Council

Pupil ratios from new build

New method of calculating pupil ratios (2)

First carried out in 1999 Repeated 2002 and 2005 – with increasing

sophistication Planned repeat autumn 2008

Falkirk Council

Pupil ratios from new build

New method of calculating pupil ratios (3)

Outcome of 2005 exercise – current ratios per house

Primary Secondary Pupil ratios Non-

denominational Denominational (RC)

Non-denominational

Denominational (RC)

Houses 0.27 0.09 0.13 0.09 Flats 0.16 0.09 0.07 0.09

Falkirk Council

Pupil ratios from new build

New method of calculating pupil ratios (4)

In 1999 only sites of 10 or more houses considered

Extended to sites of four or more in 2002 Increased use of GIS to identify houses and flats

Site DeveloperHouse type Addresses House nos Postcode

No of units

Construction dates Completed

Drum Farm                

1A McTaggart & Meikle Houses Farmstead Way 1-29, 2-28 EH51 9RT 28 2001-2006 Yes

1B McTaggart & Meikle Houses Acre View 1-49, 2-38 EH51 9RQ 43 2001- No

1C McTaggart & Meikle Houses Muirhouses Avenue 15 EH51 9DJ 1 2001-2006 Yes

1D McTaggart & Meikle Flats Muirhouses Avenue 1-11 EH51 9DJ 6 2001-2006 Yes

1E McTaggart & Meikle Houses Drum Farm Lane 23-41, 6-44 EH51 9RJ 30 2001-2006 Yes

1F McTaggart & Meikle Flats Drum Farm Lane 1-21, 2-4 EH51 9RJ 12 2001-2006 Yes

1G McTaggart & Meikle Flats Hillside Grove 11, 15 EH51 9RL 2 2001-2006 Yes

1H McTaggart & Meikle Flats Hillside Grove 2-12 EH51 9RN 6 2001-2006 Yes

1I McTaggart & Meikle Houses Wheatfield Road 1-29, 2-22 EH51 9RU 25 2001- No

1J McTaggart & Meikle Houses Hillside Grove 1-9, 17-103 EH51 9RL 49 2001- No

1K McTaggart & Meikle Houses Hillside Grove 14-74 EH51 9RN 31 2001- No

2A Ogilvie Houses Carriden View 1-9, 2-26 EH51 9DQ 18 2002-2004 Yes

2B Ogilvie Houses Carriden Place 1-27, 2-16 EH51 9EU 21 2002-2004 Yes

2C Ogilvie Houses Muirhouses Crescent 1-21, 2-52 EH51 9DH 36 2002-2004 Yes

2D Ogilvie Houses Muirhouses Avenue 17-43, 2-16 EH51 9DJ 22 2002-2004 Yes

3A Stewart Milne Houses Maryfield Drive 1-7, 2-18 EH51 9DG 13 2003-2005 Yes

3B Stewart Milne Houses Muirhouses Square 1-5, 2-14 EH51 9DL 10 2003-2005 Yes

3C Stewart Milne Houses Muirhouses Avenue 45-53 EH51 9DJ 5 2003-2005 Yes

Example of housing sites information

Example of ratio tables

        

Primary Secondary Houses/ Construction No of ND 1y RC 1y ND S1-S6 RC S1-S6 Site Developer flats/plots dates Addresses Nos Postcode houses Pupils Ratio Pupils Ratio Pupils Ratio Pupils Ratio

Drum Farm 1 McTaggart & Meikle Flats 2001 Drum Farm Lane 1-21 EH51 9RJ 10 0 0 0 0

Houses 23-41 10 2 2 2 0 Flats 2-4 2 0 0 0 0 Houses 6-44 20 1 2 0 0 Flats Muirhouses Avenue 1-11 EH51 9DJ 6 0 0 0 0 Houses 15 1 2 0 0 0 Houses Hillside Grove 1-9 EH51 9RL 5 1 0 0 0 Flats 11,15 2 2 0 1 0 Houses 17-75 30 2 0 0 0 Flats 2-12 EH51 9RN 6 1 0 0 0 Houses 14-60 24 0 0 0 0 Houses Acre View 1-21 EH51 9RQ 10 0 0 0 0 Houses 2-26 13 1 0 0 0 Houses Farmstead Way 1-29 EH51 9RT 14 1 0 1 0 Houses 2-28 14 2 1 0 0

167 15 0.090 5 0.030 4 0.024 0 0.000

Drum Farm 2 Ogilvie Houses 2002-2004 Muirhouses Avenue 17-43 EH51 9DJ 14 4 0 0 0 2-16 8 0 0 0 0 Muirhouses Crescent 1-21 EH51 9DH 10 0 2 0 0 2-52 26 6 2 1 0 Carriden Place 1-27 EH51 9EU 13 2 0 0 0 2-16 8 0 0 1 0 Carriden View 1-9 EH51 9DQ 5 0 0 0 0 2-26 13 1 0 0 0

97 13 0.134 4 0.041 2 0.021 0 0.000

Drum Farm 3 Stewart Milne Houses 2003-2005 Muirhouses Avenue 45-53 EH51 9DJ 5 0 0 0 0 Muirhouses Square 1-5 EH51 9DL 3 0 0 0 0 2-14 7 0 0 0 0 Maryfield Drive 1-7 EH51 9DG 4 1 1 2 2 2-18 9 0 0 0 0

28 1 0.036 1 0.036 2 0.071 2 0.071

Falkirk Council

Pupil ratios from new build

New method of calculating pupil ratios (5)

Alternative methods of calculating ratios:

- Include all new build addresses

1. Dividing the total number of pupils in each category living in new build addresses by the total number of new houses.

2. Averaging all the individual site ratios for each category of pupil.

Falkirk Council

Pupil ratios from new build

New method of calculating pupil ratios (6)

- Only include those sites where there was at least one child attending a school of any type i.e. excluding all sites with no pupils.

1. Dividing the total number of pupils of each category by the total number of houses on sites with at least one child.

2. Averaging the site ratios of those sites with at least one child of any category

Falkirk Council

Pupil ratios from new build

New method of calculating pupil ratios (7)

- Excluding sites where there are no pupils of that category.

1. Dividing the total number of pupils of each category living in new build by the total number of houses on sites where there are pupils of that category.

2. Averaging the individual site ratios for each category of pupil where there were pupils of that category.

Falkirk Council

Pupil ratios from new build

Results – for different types of ratios

ND primary RC Primary ND Sec RC Sec Total children/total new build 0.216 0.046 0.110 0.020 Average of all sites 0.200 0.039 0.108 0.028 All sites with at least one pupil of any type Total children/total new build 0.234 0.050 0.119 0.021 Average of all sites 0.248 0.048 0.134 0.034 All sites of that type with at least one child Total children/total new build 0.238 0.068 0.127 0.039 Average of all sites 0.268 0.092 0.162 0.094

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Pupil ratios from new build

Results – change over time (1)

Non-denominational primary schools

1999 2002 2005 All pupils/total housing stock 0.17 0.16 0.15 Structure Plan allocations & sites before planning applications

0.25 0.27 0.27

Large sites of large family houses 0.40 0.42 0.42 Flatted developments 0.09 0.14 0.16 Plotted developments 0.44 0.42 0.34 Housing Associations n/a 0.22 0.20

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Pupil ratios from new build

Results – change over time (2)

Non-denominational primary schools

1999 2002 2005 Broomage Avenue, Larbert n/a 0.500 0.567 Kincardine Road, Carronshore 0.42 0.500 0.523 Carrongrange, Stenhousemuir n/a 0.434 0.437 West Muirfield, Dennyloanhead n/a 0.411 0.398 Inches, Larbert n/a 0.408 0.361 Wallacebrae, Reddingmuirhead n/a 0.411 0.359 Beaumont Drive, Carron 0.43 0.416 0.337

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Pupil ratios from new build

Results – differences by area 2002 ND

Primary RC Primary

ND Sec S1-S6

RC Sec S1-S6

Average of all non-zero ratios in sites with children of type

0.272 0.080 0.154 0.045

Falkirk 0.219 0.074 0.160 0.035 Grangemouth 0.250 0.076 0.132 0.049 Bo’ness 0.288 0.082 0.154 0.040 Larbert/ Stenhousemuir

0.316 0.067 0.145 0.032

Denny/ Bonnybridge

0.230 0.077 0.130 0.027

Braes 0.304 0.104 0.187 0.070

Falkirk Council

Pupil ratios from new build

Any questions?