School Year 2016-17 Membership Analysis and Trends · 2019-06-21 · School Year 2016-17 – Membership Analysis and Trends Current Membership Each year, as part of the preparation

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December 5, 2016 Work Session

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School Year 2016-17 – Membership Analysis and Trends

Current Membership

Each year, as part of the preparation to develop the Capital Improvement Program, enrollment

trends are reviewed. Changes in SY 2015-16 to SY 2016-17 membership were different from

those experienced between SY 2014-15 to SY 2015-16. This was primarily due to growth in the

birth to kindergarten ratio and a higher net migration increase. Although Fairfax County Public

Schools (FCPS) experienced larger membership growth this year as compared to last year,

growth rates are not expected to increase in the future.

The following chart displays the countywide membership changes between SY 2015-16 and

SY 2016-17.

All Students Comparison of September 30th Membership

Level

Membership Comparison

Actual Membership

SY15-16

Actual Membership

SY16-17

Membership Change

Membership Change %

Elementary 98,883 99,094 211 0%

Middle 28,345 28,800 455 2%

High 55,786 56,545 759 1%

Total FCPS Base 183,014 184,439 1,425 1%

Centers /Alt. Programs 2,820 2,763 -57 -2%

Total FCPS 185,834 187,202 1,368 1%

Other 880 821 -59 -7%

Total Membership 186,714 188,023 1,309 1% Based on September 30

th certified membership. Dates for official budget counts are: special education and special

education preschool (December 1st); alternative/non-traditional (January 31

st); and FECEP/Head Start (March 31

st). Other

refers to Adult HS, multi-agency, and private school special education.

Changing Membership Factors

FCPS experienced an increase in the overall membership of the system by only +246 students

between SY 2014-15 and SY 2015-16. This year, between SY 2015-16 and SY 2016-17, the

membership increase was more moderate at +1,425 students at base schools (elementary,

middle, and high). A decrease of -57 students was seen in centers and alternative programs

(special education, preschool, alternative centers, and ESOL Transitional High Schools). Lastly,

“other” levels experienced a decline of -59 students (adult high school, multi-agency, and private

school special education).

There are many different factors that can alter the overall membership from year to year.

Prominent factors are the birth to kindergarten ratio and net student migration. Individual school

membership is influenced by these two factors along with a third factor: student transfers due to

program access needs and the student transfer regulation.

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1) Birth to Kindergarten Ratio

The primary factor that influences the overall school system membership change from year to

year is the projection that predicts how many kindergarten students will materialize at each

school. This is based on how many births occurred in that school’s boundary five years ago.

Although FCPS projects the birth to kindergarten ratio on a school by school basis, it is helpful

to examine countywide trends.

The chart below shows some of the difficulty associated with estimating the number of

kindergartners due to the volatility of the ratio. Last year, FCPS witnessed an unanticipated

significant decline in the birth to kindergarten ratio. This led to an over projection of kindergarten

students. For the SY 2016-17 kindergarten projection, a slightly higher 82.25% birth to

kindergarten ratio was used. This fell short of the actual number of students, as the ratio

increased from 82% to 84%.

Based on September 30th certified membership.

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The actual quantity of births is also critical to the projection effort. One trend which has occurred

within FCPS, as related to births, is the fact that the total number has declined each year over

the past five years. The total reduction in the quantity of births is approximately -9%.

Based on September 30

th certified membership.

With the declining birth rate in FCPS, it is likely that future kindergarten cohorts will be smaller

than those in the past, unless the birth to kindergarten ratio returns to a very high level. The

birth figures for 2016 will be available in the next few months. These figures will provide an

indication as to whether the decline in the birth rates for FCPS persist.

2) Migration

Another important component when anticipating future membership is migration. Net migration

refers to the difference in the number of students who leave the school system (out-migration)

and the number of students who enter the school system (in-migration) on a yearly basis. Last

year, FCPS experienced a migration pattern that was vastly different from the previous year.

This year, FCPS experienced a reversal of this trend. In-migration was much higher between

SY 2015-16 to SY 2016-17, as compared to that experienced between SY 2014-15 to SY 2015-

16. The following chart contrasts the SY 2015-16 with SY 2016-17, as related to net migration

on a grade by grade basis across the system.

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As the chart indicates, the in-migration rate for this year was greater in all but two grades (7th

and 12th). The largest in-migration both last year and this year occurred at the 1st and 9th grade.

In-migration patterns at the 10th grade, 6th grade, and 3rd grade were also larger than that

experienced last year. Unlike last year’s decline in net migration in grades 4, 5, and 10, this year

FCPS experienced positive net migration in these grade levels.

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The total net migration for the system as a whole increased from +430 last year to +1,425 this

year. Although the net migration of students was higher this year as compared to last year, it is

well short of the near-term historical average experienced by FCPS prior to SY15-16 of +2,173

students. This has a major impact on overall student enrollment.

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Net migration by high school pyramid varies across the school system. More information will

determine whether patterns can be discerned by geographic area.

All Schools - Migration Summary by Pyramid

Region Pyramid

Migration Comparison

In Migration

Out Migration

Difference %

Change

2 Annandale 500 260 240 48%

4 Centreville 711 450 261 37%

5 Chantilly 558 380 178 32%

3 Edison 703 482 221 31%

5 Fairfax 862 623 239 28%

2 Falls Church 691 512 179 26%

3 Hayfield 520 399 121 23%

1 Herndon 678 540 138 20%

4 Lake Braddock 693 563 130 19%

1 Langley 564 474 90 16%

3 Lee 520 442 78 15%

1 Madison 652 568 84 13%

2 Marshall 591 529 62 10%

2 McLean 616 560 56 9%

3 Mt Vernon 667 641 26 4%

1 Oakton 528 526 2 0%

4 Robinson 618 622 -4 -1%

4 South County 682 708 -26 -4%

1 South Lakes 621 654 -33 -5%

2 Stuart 926 1028 -102 -11%

3 West Potomac 608 691 -83 -14%

4 West Springfield 745 863 -118 -16%

5 Westfield 673 787 -114 -17%

5 Woodson 488 589 -101 -21%

N/A Out of County 253 352 -99 -39%

Pyramid Totals 15,668 14,243 1,425

*Out of County refers to students who reside outside of Fairfax County and the City of Fairfax.

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Net migration is also influenced by housing. New residential development within the county is

different from the past. The chart below displays historical and planned housing units by type

within Fairfax County.

As the information indicates, the vast majority of new housing will be multifamily such as

apartments and condominiums. These units are planned around new metro stops and other

high density areas within Fairfax County.

Subsequently, the proposed new housing in traditional residential units such as single family

and townhomes is rising at a very low rate. It is difficult in the near term to project student yields

within these new developments as the housing type is relatively new to Fairfax County. The

student yield for the most recent similar developments is lower than anticipated.

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3) Student Transfers due to Program Access Needs and the Student Transfer Regulation

Student transfers due to program access needs and the student transfer regulation has a

significant impact on the year by year membership of an individual school. The simplest way to

view the impact of the programs and transfers is to compare the residing membership (students

who live in a school’s boundary) to the attending membership (students who attend a particular

school). The chart below compares the residing and attending by pyramid.

All Schools Residing/Attending by Pyramid

Region Pyramid Residing Attending Difference %

Change

2 Jefferson 0 1,789 1,789 100%

4 Lake Braddock 7,590 8,220 630 8%

5 Woodson 7,081 7,396 315 4%

2 Marshall 6,998 7,309 311 4%

1 South Lakes 7,272 7,545 273 4%

5 Chantilly 9,804 9,963 159 2%

1 Oakton 8,319 8,433 114 1%

2 Stuart 8,503 8,439 -64 -1%

2 McLean 7,052 6,987 -65 -1%

3 Edison 6,377 6,304 -73 -1%

3 West Potomac 9,492 9,381 -111 -1%

4 West Springfield 7,552 7,359 -193 -3%

4 Robinson 7,880 7,587 -293 -4%

1 Langley 7,411 7,128 -283 -4%

4 South County 6,553 6,263 -290 -4%

1 Madison 7,154 6,804 -350 -5%

2 Falls Church 7,422 7,041 -381 -5%

3 Hayfield 7,130 6,757 -373 -5%

1 Herndon 8,450 7,928 -522 -6%

3 Mt Vernon 8,233 7,711 -522 -6%

5 Westfield 9,564 8,939 -625 -7%

5 Fairfax 7,092 6,566 -526 -7%

4 Centreville 8,624 7,978 -646 -7%

2 Annandale 8,875 8,189 -686 -8%

3 Lee 6,972 6,356 -616 -9%



Only six of the twenty-four high school pyramids have a positive transfer rate: Lake Braddock

+8%, Woodson +4%, Marshall +4%, South Lakes +4%, Chantilly +2%, and Oakton +1%. The

primary reason for the positive transfer rate in the aforementioned pyramids is that each of

these pyramids has an AAP Center at both the elementary and middle school level. Conversely,

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there are ten pyramids which have a negative transfer rate greater than or equal to -5%:

Lee -9%, Annandale -8%, Centreville -7%, Fairfax -7%, Westfield -7%, Mt. Vernon -6%,

Herndon -6%, Hayfield -5%, Falls Church -5%, and Madison -5%.

The 11% transfer rate within FCPS poses the greatest challenge in accurately projecting

membership on a school by school basis each year. This impacts the student enrollment

projections of individual schools. The first factor to consider is the grade levels where transfers

occur.


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It is also essential to understand the reasons for transfers. The following chart displays the

student transfers by reason as of September 30th of this school year. These categories

represent a total of 20,704 students who do not attend the school where they reside in SY 2016-

17.


The primary reasons a student transfers from their residing school are: to access AAP Centers

(30.2%), the student transfer regulation (19.5%), special education (19.4%), Thomas Jefferson

High School for Science and Technology (8.6%), and World Language Immersion (7.6%).

These categories comprise more than 85% of the 20,704 transfers within FCPS.

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As previously noted, the student transfer regulation accounts for 19.5% of transfers in FCPS.

Within the regulation, the largest amount of transfers (32%) are due to high school curricular

reasons (AP, IB, World Language, Academy). The next highest reason is transfers by students

who are children of employees (23%). Elementary school students who transfer due to child-

care reasons make up 17% of the overall student transfer regulation; as students who transfer

as siblings of those transferring due to program and other reasons make up 15% of the

transfers. Senior status accounts for 11% of the transfers. Only a small number of students

transfer due to boundary adjustments and social/emotional needs.

FCPS Student Transfer Regulation Transfers by Assigned Reason


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Elementary School Membership Overview

Membership levels at the elementary level continue to rise, albeit at a low pace. The primary

cause of the increase in membership at our elementary schools was an increased birth to

kindergarten ratio as well as a higher in-migration of students from grades K to 6.

Elementary Schools

Region

Enrollment Comparison

Actual Enroll

SY15-16

Actual Enroll

SY16-17

Enroll Change

Enroll Change

%

Region 1 Totals 21,099 21,133 34 0%

Region 2 Totals 19,848 19,970 122 1%

Region 3 Totals 21,067 21,073 6 0%

Region 4 Totals 19,099 19,205 106 1%

Region 5 Totals 17,770 17,713 -57 0%

Total FCPS 98,883 99,094 211 0% Based on September 30


Like the previous year, only eleven of the twenty-four pyramids experienced growth at the

elementary level. Further, only four pyramids had elementary growth that exceeded +2%:

Marshall +4%, Edison +3%, West Springfield +3%, and Oakton +3%. Of these four pyramids,

only Marshall had growth the prior year of +2% or greater. Four pyramids saw growth of +1% or

less: South County, Mount Vernon, Herndon, and Madison.

The following pyramids experienced moderate declines in membership at the elementary level:

South Lakes -2%, Centreville -2%, Hayfield -2%, and Chantilly -2%. The vast majority of

pyramids saw either an increase or decrease of less than -1%.

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Elementary Schools Enrollment by Pyramid

Region Pyramid


Actual Enroll

SY15-16

Actual Enroll

SY16-17

Enroll Change

Enroll Change

%

2 Marshall 3,774 3,920 146 4%

3 Edison 3,171 3,276 105 3%

4 West Springfield 3,968 4,094 126 3%

1 Oakton 4,288 4,417 129 3%

5 Woodson 3,696 3,775 79 2%

4 Robinson 3,634 3,701 67 2%

2 Falls Church 3,594 3,649 55 2%

4 South County 2,970 2,992 22 1%

3 Mt Vernon 4,704 4,735 31 1%

1 Herndon 4,577 4,603 26 1%

1 Madison 3,695 3,714 19 1%

5 Westfield 5,599 5,581 -18 0%

3 Lee 3,793 3,778 -15 0%

2 Annandale 4,223 4,203 -20 0%

2 Stuart 4,642 4,610 -32 -1%

4 Lake Braddock 4,022 3,993 -29 -1%

2 McLean 3,615 3,588 -27 -1%

3 West Potomac 5,437 5,391 -46 -1%

5 Fairfax 3,317 3,287 -30 -1%

1 Langley 3,727 3,692 -35 -1%

5 Chantilly 5,158 5,070 -88 -2%

3 Hayfield 3,962 3,893 -69 -2%

4 Centreville 4,505 4,425 -80 -2%

1 South Lakes 4,812 4,707 -105 -2%

Pyramid Totals 98,883 99,094 211 Based on September 30


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Elementary School Migration Overview

One of the most important indicators of membership activity within a region is student migration.

This indicates how many students who were in the system the previous year have left (out-

migration) or those who newly entered the system the current school year (in-migration).

Elementary Schools Migration by Pyramid

Region Pyramid


In Migration

Out Migration Difference

% Change

5 Woodson 308 182 126 41%

4 West Springfield 449 269 180 40%

1 Langley 264 172 92 35%

2 McLean 473 317 156 33%

4 Robinson 311 209 102 33%

1 Oakton 377 271 106 28%

1 Madison 271 204 67 25%

3 Edison 391 308 83 21%

2 Marshall 452 365 87 19%

5 Chantilly 266 217 49 18%

4 Lake Braddock 286 239 47 16%

2 Annandale 285 242 43 15%

4 South County 277 236 41 15%

1 South Lakes 310 269 41 13%

2 Falls Church 342 311 31 9%

5 Fairfax 359 353 6 2%

1 Herndon 343 340 3 1%

2 Stuart 300 311 -11 -4%

3 Lee 239 248 -9 -4%

3 Mt Vernon 640 707 -67 -10%

3 Hayfield 328 369 -41 -13%

5 Westfield 466 533 -67 -14%

3 West Potomac 374 432 -58 -16%

4 Centreville 243 287 -44 -18%

N/A Out of County 4 12 -8 -200%

Pyramid Totals 8,358 7,403 955 *Out of County refers to students who reside outside of Fairfax County and the City of Fairfax. Based on September 30


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This year, FCPS experienced a significant increase with the in-migration rate at the elementary

level. Only seven of the twenty-four high school pyramids experienced a net out-migration at the

elementary level: Centreville -18%, West Potomac -16%, Westfield -14%, Hayfield -13%, Mt.

Vernon -10%, Lee -4%, and Stuart -4%. Conversely, FCPS saw significant in-migration rates

(+10% or more) in fourteen of the high school pyramids.

These increased rates do not necessarily coincide with a net increase in membership within

certain schools or pyramids which demonstrates the difficulty in projecting student membership.

These differences are typically due to a larger cohort leaving the elementary school and

progressing to middle school or transfers from one pyramid to another for programmatic

reasons.

Elementary School Transfers Overview

Although students who transfer within FCPS schools are captured in the overall projections, it is

very difficult to be precise about which schools they will ultimately attend. At the elementary

level, there are more opportunities for students to transfer than at higher levels. Access to AAP

Centers draws the most students from their base or residing school. One advantage of these

centers is that boundaries are established.

In addition, the world language immersion programs that accept out of boundary students and

magnet schools have a similar effect as the AAP Centers. These are oftentimes more difficult to

project and account for as they are open membership – meaning that students from across the

county can attend these schools for these programs.

Siblings of students who transfer to access programs such as AAP Centers, immersion, and

magnet schools also have the opportunity to transfer in order to be with their family. This

compounds the difficulty in projecting for transfers in order to achieve school by school

projection accuracy.

Lastly, at the elementary school level, the student transfer regulation allows for students to

transfer due to child care needs. This variable is extremely difficult to capture in a student

enrollment projection methodology.

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The following chart displays the difference at the elementary level for each pyramid of the

students who reside within a boundary and the actual number of students who attend those

schools.

Elementary Schools Residing/Attending by Pyramid


Change

5 Woodson 3,444 3,775 331 10%

1 South Lakes 3,726 4,045 319 9%

3 Lee 3,552 3,778 226 6%

1 Langley 4,171 4,354 183 4%

4 Lake Braddock 3,827 3,993 166 4%

2 Stuart 4,457 4,610 153 3%

2 McLean 3,513 3,588 75 2%

5 Chantilly 4,968 5,070 102 2%

4 West Springfield 4,060 4,094 34 1%

1 Oakton 4,433 4,417 -16 0%

3 West Potomac 5,414 5,391 -23 0%

5 Fairfax 3,359 3,287 -72 -2%

2 Marshall 4,012 3,920 -92 -2%

1 Herndon 4,716 4,603 -113 -2%

3 Edison 3,383 3,276 -107 -3%

3 Hayfield 4,045 3,893 -152 -4%

1 Madison 3,862 3,714 -148 -4%

3 Mt Vernon 4,926 4,735 -191 -4%

4 Robinson 3,867 3,701 -166 -4%

5 Westfield 5,839 5,581 -258 -4%

4 South County 3,163 2,992 -171 -5%

2 Annandale 4,489 4,203 -286 -6%

4 Centreville 4,760 4,425 -335 -7%

2 Falls Church 3,996 3,649 -347 -9%



The data indicates that thirteen of the twenty-four pyramids have a net negative transfer rate of

students greater than -1%: Falls Church -9%, Centreville -7%, Annandale -6%, South County

-5%, Westfield -4%, Robinson -4%, Mt. Vernon -4%, Madison -4%, Hayfield -4%, Edison -3%,

Herndon -2%, Marshall -2%, and Fairfax -2%. There were eight pyramids which had a positive

transfer rate of +2% or more: Woodson +10%, South Lakes +9%, Lee +6%, Langley +4%, Lake

Braddock +4%, Stuart +3%, McLean +2%, and Chantilly +2%. As previously referenced, this is

primarily due to AAP Centers as well immersion and magnet programs. In addition, many

students do not attend schools within their pyramid due to the location of special education

programs.

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Elementary School Birth to Kindergarten Overview

Another important factor in membership, particularly at the elementary level, is the birth to

kindergarten ratio. The ratio is derived by comparing the total number of births within a particular

boundary with the resulting quantity of kindergarten students five years later. The following chart

compares the birth to kindergarten ratio from last school year to the current school year by high

school pyramid.

Birth to Kindergarten Ratio SY 2015-16 vs SY 2016-17

Region Pyramid Birth to K

SY 2015-16 Birth to K

SY 2016-17 Difference

4 South County 101% 112% 11%

1 Herndon 57% 68% 10%

3 Edison 60% 70% 9%

4 Lake Braddock 109% 118% 9%

1 South Lakes 67% 74% 7%

1 Oakton 97% 103% 6%

4 West Springfield 114% 118% 5%

3 Lee 71% 75% 4%

5 Fairfax 70% 74% 4%

2 Annandale 70% 73% 3%

2 Falls Church 64% 67% 3%

2 Marshall 70% 73% 3%

3 West Potomac 90% 89% 0%

4 Robinson 121% 121% 0%

5 Westfield 76% 75% -1%

2 Stuart 67% 66% -2%

1 Madison 123% 121% -2%

4 Centreville 78% 76% -2%

5 Woodson 134% 131% -3%

5 Chantilly 83% 79% -4%

3 Hayfield 86% 82% -4%

2 McLean 125% 118% -6%

3 Mt Vernon 91% 84% -7%

1 Langley 154% 142% -12%



The data associated with birth to kindergarten is similar to other leading indicators such as

migration and membership; there is no distinctive historical regionalized pattern.

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Middle School Membership Overview

FCPS experienced a growth of +455 students at the middle school level. This is in line with the

projections. It is primarily attributed to the fact that the rising 6th grade cohort (7th graders) was

larger than last year’s 8th grade cohort (exiting 8th graders).

Middle Schools

Region


Actual Enroll

SY15-16

Actual Enroll

SY16-17

Enroll Change

Enroll Change

%

Region 1 Totals 5,107 5,262 155 3%

Region 2 Totals 7,479 7,639 160 2%

Region 3 Totals 5,104 5,056 -48 -1%

Region 4 Totals 5,695 5,769 74 1%

Region 5 Totals 4,960 5,074 114 2%

Total FCPS 28,345 28,800 455 2% Based on September 30


Although the projection accuracy rate for middle schools has improved, programming continues

to pose a challenge regarding school by school accuracy rate. This is primarily attributable to

AAP Center access.

The following chart displays membership changes at the middle school level by pyramid. There

were ten pyramids which experienced growth in excess of +2%: West Springfield +7%,

Woodson +6%, Chantilly +6%, South Lakes +5%, Madison +5%, Langley +5%, Oakton +4%,

Stuart +3%, Falls Church +3%, and Lake Braddock +3%. Many of these pyramids contain an

AAP Center which offers an explanation for the growth within the pyramid.

Conversely, there were four pyramids that experienced a decline of greater than -2% at the

middle school level: Fairfax -7%, Herndon -4%, Centreville -4%, and Westfield -3%. None of

these pyramids have a middle school AAP Center.

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Middle School Enrollment by Pyramid

Region Pyramid


Actual Enroll

SY15-16

Actual Enroll

SY16-17

Enroll

Change

Enroll Change

%

4 West Springfield 980 1,056 76 7%

5 Woodson 1,137 1,210 73 6%

5 Chantilly 2,028 2,152 124 6%

1 South Lakes 964 1,017 53 5%

1 Madison 856 902 46 5%

1 Langley 764 801 37 5%

1 Oakton 1,467 1,524 57 4%

2 Stuart 1,677 1,734 57 3%

2 Falls Church 1,389 1,436 47 3%

4 Lake Braddock 1,383 1,422 39 3%

2 Annandale 1,843 1,885 42 2%

4 South County 1,038 1,061 23 2%

2 Marshall 1,228 1,238 10 1%

3 Edison 977 984 7 1%

2 McLean 1,342 1,346 4 0%

3 Hayfield 892 888 -4 0%

3 Mt Vernon 980 968 -12 -1%

3 West Potomac 1,434 1,415 -19 -1%

4 Robinson 1,209 1,184 -25 -2%

3 Lee 821 801 -20 -2%

5 Westfield 800 780 -20 -3%

4 Centreville 1,085 1,046 -39 -4%

1 Herndon 1,056 1,018 -38 -4%

5 Fairfax 995 932 -63 -7%

Pyramid Totals 28,345 28,800 455 2% Based on September 30


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Middle School Migration Overview

Since middle schools have fewer grades, the magnitude of migration is smaller than ES and HS.

Middle Schools Migration by Pyramid

Region Pyramid


In Migration


% Change

5 Chantilly 75 49 26 35%

4 Robinson 90 59 31 34%


5 Woodson 85 59 26 31%

2 Annandale 149 114 35 23%

2 Marshall 117 92 25 21%

1 Oakton 78 62 16 21%

4 South County 71 60 11 15%

1 Madison 74 63 11 15%

2 Falls Church 86 75 11 13%

3 Edison 104 91 13 13%

3 Lee 65 60 5 8%

2 Stuart 151 142 9 6%

5 Fairfax 95 92 3 3%

4 Centreville 66 66 0 0%

N/A Out of County 0 0 0 0%

2 McLean 114 117 -3 -3%

3 West Potomac 93 97 -4 -4%

1 Langley 68 76 -8 -12%

4 West Springfield 97 110 -13 -13%

1 Herndon 75 88 -13 -17%

5 Westfield 103 126 -23 -22%

3 Hayfield 71 89 -18 -25%

1 South Lakes 63 80 -17 -27%

3 Mt Vernon 144 191 -47 -33%



Seven pyramids experienced significant positive net-migration of +21% or more: Chantilly

+35%, Robinson +34%, Lake Braddock +34%, Woodson +31%, Annandale +23%, Marshall

+21%, and Oakton +21%. Four pyramids saw a significant negative net-migration. They are:

Mt. Vernon -33%, South Lakes -27%, Hayfield -25%, and Westfield -22%. Like the elementary

school level, the in/out migration does not necessarily align with an increased or decreased

membership within the pyramid. This is due primarily to program access or student transfers.

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Middle School Transfers Overview

Similar to the elementary level, there is a significant amount of volatility related to the quantity of

middle school students who attend the schools in the boundary where they reside versus those

who attend another middle school.

Middle Schools Residing/Attending by Pyramid


Change

2 Marshall 899 1,238 339 38%

4 Lake Braddock 1,083 1,422 339 31%

1 Oakton 1,167 1,524 357 31%

2 Falls Church 1,205 1,436 231 19%

3 Edison 848 984 136 16%

5 Chantilly 1,988 2,152 164 8%

1 South Lakes 944 1,017 73 8%

2 McLean 1,252 1,346 94 8%

3 West Potomac 1,340 1,415 75 6%

5 Woodson 1,158 1,210 52 4%

2 Stuart 1,674 1,734 60 4%

4 South County 1,067 1,061 -6 -1%

4 Robinson 1,239 1,184 -55 -4%


2 Annandale 2,055 1,885 -170 -8%

1 Herndon 1,111 1,018 -93 -8%

4 Centreville 1,166 1,046 -120 -10%

1 Madison 1,019 902 -117 -11%

3 Mt Vernon 1,094 968 -126 -12%

5 Westfield 886 780 -106 -12%

3 Hayfield 1,011 888 -123 -12%

5 Fairfax 1,206 932 -274 -23%

1 Langley 1,063 801 -262 -25%

3 Lee 1,373 801 -572 -42%



Twelve of the twenty-four pyramids send out -4% or more of their students for various programs.

The middle school pyramids which are losing the greatest percentage of students are:

Lee -42%, Langley -25%, Fairfax -23%, Hayfield -12%, Westfield -12%, Mt. Vernon -12%,

Madison -11%, Centreville -10%, Herndon -8%, Annandale -8%, West Springfield -7%, and

Robinson -4%. In contrast, eleven of the twenty-four pyramids witnessed positive growth

attributable to transfers at the middle school level: Marshall +38%, Lake Braddock +31%,

Oakton +31%, Falls Church +19%, Edison +16%, Chantilly +8%, South Lakes +8%, McLean

+8%, West Potomac +6%, Woodson +4%, and Stuart +4%.

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High School Membership Overview

Like the previous two years, high schools experienced the largest growth within the system.

This year, the increase at the high school level is linked specifically to the typically large in-

migration of students at the entry level 9th grade.

High Schools

Region


Actual Enroll

SY15-16

Actual Enroll

SY16-17

Enroll Change

Enroll Change

%

Region 1 Totals 11,202 11,443 241 2%

Region 2 Totals 11,945 12,145 200 2%

Region 3 Totals 10,144 10,414 270 3%

Region 4 Totals 12,318 12,450 132 1%

Region 5 Totals 10,177 10,093 -84 -1%

Total FCPS 55,786 56,545 759 1%


High school membership variances are more complicated than other levels. A primary cause of

the changes to membership beyond simple migration, is the fact that students at the high school

level frequently transfer to other programs or facilities based upon their educational status. In

fact, there are multiple options for students at this level.

Of the twenty-four high schools, eighteen saw a net increase in membership. This is vastly

different than the previous year when only five of the high schools saw an increase in

membership. In spite of this change, overall high school membership only increased overall by

+1%.

Attachment A


23

There were seven schools with membership growth in excess of +2%: Stuart +6%, Edison +5%,

Marshall +5%, Falls Church +5%, West Potomac +4%, Madison +3%, and Oakton +3%. Only

two high schools experienced a decline of -2% or higher: Fairfax -3% and Annandale -3%.

The majority of membership changes at the high school level were anticipated; upcoming

cohorts are larger than exiting cohorts. Schools that witnessed a slight decline, such as

Woodson and West Springfield, are expected to see an increased membership over the next

few years due to larger cohorts moving through the school system. Other schools such as

Madison, Oakton, Herndon, Falls Church, and Stuart, also merit monitoring as the upcoming

cohorts are very large.

High School Enrollment by Pyramid

Region Pyramid


Actual Enroll

SY15-16

Actual Enroll

SY16-17

Enroll Change

Enroll Change

%

2 Stuart 1,973 2,095 122 6%

3 Edison 1,934 2,044 110 5%

2 Marshall 2,036 2,151 115 5%

2 Falls Church 1,866 1,956 90 5%

3 West Potomac 2,482 2,592 110 4%

1 Madison 2,123 2,188 65 3%

1 Oakton 2,412 2,492 80 3%

1 South Lakes 2,436 2,483 47 2%

1 Herndon 2,264 2,307 43 2%

3 Mt Vernon 1,989 2,025 36 2%

4 Robinson 2,670 2,719 49 2%

5 Chantilly 2,710 2,757 47 2%

4 Centreville 2,472 2,507 35 1%

4 Lake Braddock 2,772 2,805 33 1%

4 South County 2,186 2,210 24 1%

3 Lee 1,764 1,777 13 1%

1 Langley 1,967 1,973 6 0%

3 Hayfield 1,975 1,976 1 0%

4 West Springfield 2,218 2,209 -9 0%

5 Westfield 2,608 2,578 -30 -1%

5 Woodson 2,446 2,411 -35 -1%

2 McLean 2,089 2,053 -36 -2%

2 Jefferson 1,823 1,789 -34 -2%

2 Annandale 2,158 2,101 -57 -3%

5 Fairfax 2,413 2,347 -66 -3%

Pyramid Totals 55,786 56,545 759 1%


Attachment A


24

High School Migration Overview

The migration picture at the high school level is significantly different than the previous year.

Last year FCPS had a net out-migration of students, while this school year FCPS experienced a

net (+363) in-migration of students.

High Schools Migration by Pyramid

Region Pyramid


In Migration


% Change

N/A Out of County 117 29 88 75%

1 Oakton 172 122 50 29%

4 West Springfield 202 147 55 27%

1 Madison 145 106 39 27%

2 Stuart 402 300 102 25%


4 Robinson 171 133 38 22%

3 Edison 216 172 44 20%

5 Woodson 167 135 32 19%

2 Marshall 212 182 30 14%

5 Chantilly 130 112 18 14%

2 Falls Church 302 266 36 12%

3 Hayfield 163 151 12 7%

5 Fairfax 211 199 12 6%

2 Annandale 259 264 -5 -2%

4 Centreville 169 173 -4 -2%

4 South County 161 165 -4 -2%

1 Herndon 289 300 -11 -4%

3 Mt Vernon 314 330 -16 -5%

1 South Lakes 189 211 -22 -12%

3 Lee 205 234 -29 -14%

2 McLean 176 204 -28 -16%

3 West Potomac 228 266 -38 -17%

5 Westfield 182 222 -40 -22%

1 Langley 105 149 -44 -42%



Although the numbers associated with high school net migration do not appear large, they can

have a significant impact upon the schools that are receiving or losing students. It can be

difficult to ascertain the reasons for the in or out-migration.

Attachment A


25

Seven pyramids experienced significant positive net-migration of +20% or more: Oakton +29%,

West Springfield +27%, Madison +27%, Stuart +25%, Lake Braddock +24%, Robinson +22%,

and Edison +20%. Six pyramids saw a significant negative net-migration: Langley -42%,

Westfield -22%, West Potomac -17%, McLean -16%, Lee -14%, and South Lakes -12%.

High School Transfers Overview

As previously referenced, the mobility rate within FCPS at the high school level is more stable

than at the elementary or middle school levels. The primary reasons for transfers of high school

students are: access to Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology and access

to instructional programs located at various centers and other high schools.

High Schools Residing/Attending by Pyramid


Change

2 Jefferson 0 1,789 1,789 100%

4 Lake Braddock 2,680 2,805 125 5%

2 Marshall 2,087 2,151 64 3%

4 Robinson 2,774 2,702 -72 -3%

5 Woodson 2,479 2,411 -68 -3%

1 Madison 2,273 2,188 -85 -4%

5 Chantilly 2,848 2,741 -107 -4%

1 South Lakes 2,602 2,483 -119 -5%

3 Hayfield 2,074 1,976 -98 -5%

3 Edison 2,146 2,044 -102 -5%

4 South County 2,323 2,210 -113 -5%

3 West Potomac 2,738 2,575 -163 -6%


4 Centreville 2,698 2,507 -191 -7%

5 Fairfax 2,527 2,347 -180 -7%

1 Oakton 2,719 2,492 -227 -8%

5 Westfield 2,839 2,578 -261 -9%

3 Mt Vernon 2,213 2,008 -205 -9%

1 Langley 2,177 1,973 -204 -9%

2 Annandale 2,331 2,101 -230 -10%

2 McLean 2,287 2,053 -234 -10%

2 Stuart 2,372 2,095 -277 -12%

2 Falls Church 2,221 1,956 -265 -12%

1 Herndon 2,623 2,307 -316 -12%

3 Lee 2,047 1,777 -270 -13%


th certified membership. Numbers do not include FECEP/Head Start students in

Secondary Head Start Centers.

Attachment A


26

Six of the twenty-four pyramids send out -10% or more of their students for various programs:

Lee -13%, Herndon -12%, Falls Church -12%, Stuart -12%, McLean -10%, and

Annandale -10%. In contrast, only two pyramids witnessed positive growth attributed to

transfers at the high school level: Lake Braddock +5% and Marshall +3%.

Additional Information

Enrollment patterns of four groups of students also influence year to year membership and the

student enrollment projections: general education, ESOL, AAP Center, and Special Education.

For example, the percentage of special education students in the system has remained

relatively consistent in FCPS, in relationship to membership. The number of September 30th

ESOL students eligible to receive Level 1-4 services has decreased over the past six years, in

contrast to the growing membership of language minority students in FCPS (those receiving

ESOL services, those receiving bridging services, and those who are English proficient).

Additionally, this year FCPS experienced a growth of (+300) newly eligible AAP Center students

which was dramatically different from past historical trends. The new demographic and reporting

software under development is designed to help FCPS identify trends and anomalies so that the

student enrollment projection process can incorporate the most recent, relevant information to

each projection set.

Attachment A


27

The Student Enrollment Projections Overview

During the summer of 2015, FCPS began the development of a new student enrollment

projection methodology and software. The methodology utilizes data from a three-year time

frame in order to minimize the effect of unique or outlier events which could potentially skew

future student enrollment projections. The software allows for efficient demographic reporting

and mapping so that shifts can be detected from year to year. A good example is the birth to

kindergarten ratio. If FCPS had used a lower ratio than 82.25% in SY 2015-16, it would have

resulted in an even lower elementary projection. The new methodology and software allows for

easy adjustments based on the most recent information and potentially shifting trends. This

allows flexibility in the projections from year to year so that the student enrollment projection

effort stays nimble and responsive to demographic trends and patterns.

Thus far, the new FCPS student enrollment projection methodology has performed well. For

example, in Fall 2015, FCPS used the new methodology to produce the five-year projection set.

At that time, the projection for September 30th, 2016 was 188,091. Eleven months later, the

actual September 30th, 2016 enrollment was 188,023 students. This difference of an over

projection of only (-68) students was the first indicator that the new methodology is working.

October 2015 Projections for SY 2016-17 vs. September 30, 2016 Actual Membership

School Type October 2015 Projection of SY 2016-17

Actual Sept. 30, 2016 Membership

Difference

Elementary 98,631 99,094 -463

Middle 28,766 28,800 -34

High 56,355 56,545 -190

ES, MS, HS Sub-Total 183,752 184,439 -687

Special Education Centers 732 623 109

Preschool Resource 903 798 105

Alternative Programs 1,819 1,342 477

Category A 5 0 5

CIP Planning Total 187,211 187,202 9

Adult HS, Multi-Agency, Private 880 821 59

Total 188,091 188,023 68 Based on September 30




st).

Attachment A


28

In March 2016, FCPS produced the new six-month September 30th, 2016 membership

projections using the new methodology. Four of the five regions performed better than the

March 2015 six-month projections.

6-Month Projection Accuracy by Region

Region SY 15-16 Variance

%

SY 16-17 Variance

%

Accuracy Change

Region 1 Totals -1.4% 0.5% 0.9%

Region 2 Totals -1.8% 0.1% 1.7%

Region 3 Totals -1.6% 0.6% 1.0%

Region 4 Totals 0.7% 1.2% -0.5%

Region 5 Totals -1.2% 0.0% 1.2% Based on September 30

th certified membership. Dates for official budget counts are: special education and

special education preschool (December 1st); alternative/non-traditional (January 31

st); and FECEP/Head Start

(March 31st).

Within each region, when comparing March 2016 projections to September 30th, 2016

membership, fifteen of the twenty-four high school pyramid projections performed better than

March 2015 projections as compared to September 30th, 2015 membership. These pyramids

are: Herndon, South Lakes, Annandale, Falls Church, Marshall, McLean, Stuart, Edison, Lee,

Mount Vernon, West Potomac, Centreville, Chantilly, Fairfax, and Westfield. All pyramids in

Region 2 performed better and the Chantilly pyramid (Region 5) had a net variance of 0%.

Improvement by pyramid is a main indicator that the new methodology is effective. This is due

to the fact that the new methodology begins by projecting students where they reside. It then

incorporates the relationship between access to special programs based on student attributes.

FCPS believes this is a better methodology than that used in the past which only projected

based on attending school. The new approach begins to account for the large quantity of

student transfers due to instructional program access and the student transfer regulation as

presented previously in this report.

Attachment A


29

Projection Accuracy Change by High School Pyramid

Region Pyramid

March 2015 to Sept. 30, 2015

Variance %

March 2016 to Sept. 30, 2016

Variance % Accuracy Change

1 Herndon -27% 8% 19%

1 Langley 3% -10% -7%

1 Madison 3% 6% -3%

1 Oakton -3% 18% -15%

1 South Lakes -40% -4% 36%

2 Annandale -18% -1% 17%

2 Falls Church -20% 15% 5%

2 Marshall -24% 8% 16%

2 McLean 7% -4% 3%

2 Stuart -17% -6% 11%

3 Edison -34% 31% 3%

3 Hayfield -3% -8% -5%

3 Lee -15% -3% 12%

3 Mount Vernon -23% 3% 20%

3 West Potomac -19% -2% 17%

4 Centreville -13% -7% 6%

4 Lake Braddock 4% -5% -1%

4 Robinson 15% 18% -3%

4 South County -3% 8% -5%

4 West Springfield 13% 18% -5%

5 Chantilly -6% 0% 6%

5 Fairfax -8% -6% 2%

5 Westfield -20% -2% 18%

5 Woodson -3% 19% -16% Based on September 30




st).

Improving pyramid projection accuracy will continue to lead to improvement of school by school

accuracy because FCPS now isolates the variability factors within smaller geographic areas.

For more information about individual school projection accuracy, see Attachment B.

Precise school by school projections are in the best interest of the school system. Projections

have profound consequences on capital planning, transportation, budgeting, and staffing. The

continued development of this customized enrollment projection methodology and software is

necessary to account for the complexities that influence enrollment each year, such as birth to

kindergarten ratios, migration (including housing), and student transfers for program access/the

student transfer regulation. Concurrently, pyramid-centric programming and assigning students

to schools within their pyramid will minimize variability and improve future school by school

projection accuracy rates. This will also allow students to attend schools as close to their homes

as possible and maximize system efficiency.

Attachment A


30

Five-Year Projections

Looking ahead, the five-year projections have been produced and will guide this year’s FY

2018-22 Capital Improvement Program. FCPS is projecting a moderate growth rate of

approximately +856 students per year for the system as a whole over the next five years. The

primary growth will occur at the middle and high school levels as larger grade-level cohorts

progress through the system. In addition, FCPS is forecasting a lower elementary population in

the future as a result of the lower birth rate.

FCPS Five-Year Projections SY 2017-18 to SY 2021-22

School Type SY

2016-17 SY

2017-18* SY

2018-19 SY

2019-20 SY

2020-21 SY

2021-22

Elementary 1

99,094 99,346 99,140 98,522 97,992 97,869

Middle 1 28,800 29,434 29,855 30,197 30,511 29,972

High 1 56,545 57,106 57,552 58,084 59,058 59,911

ES, MS, HS Sub-Total 184,439 185,886 186,547 186,803 187,561 187,752

Special Education Centers 2 623 627 641 640 661 686

Preschool Resource 798 805 800 808 791 787

Alternative School Programs 3 688 682 691 695 689 681

Alternative Court Programs 4 215 231 228 224 239 240

ESOL Transitional HS 439 478 494 480 486 486

Total 187,202 188,709 189,401 189,650 190,427 190,632

Adult HS, Multi-Agency, Private School Spec Ed. 821 848 834 827 859 865

Total SIS Records 188,023 189,557 190,235 190,477 191,286 191,497 Based on September 30

th certified membership and projections. 188023

1 - Enrollment numbers include: General Education, Special Education, AAP, FECEP and Preschool (wherever applicable) students

2 - Enrollment numbers include: Burke School, Cedar Lane School, Kilmer Center, Key Center, Pulley Center, Quander Road School, and Davis Center students 3 - Enrollment numbers include Alternative High School, Alternative Learning Center, Achievement, Integrity and Maturity

4 - Enrollment numbers include: Interagency students

*SY 2017-18 projections under review at the time of this publication.

Attachment A


31

Conclusion and Next Steps

As FCPS moves forward through the CIP process, understanding membership changes

experienced in SY 2016-17, as compared to SY 2015-16, is critical. Such changes influence the

future student enrollment projections used for capital construction and planning:

Membership increased by 1,309 students.

The birth to kindergarten ratio increased from 82% to 84%.

The birth rate is dropping.

The kindergarten class increased from 12,913 students to 13,184 students.

Net-migration increased from 430 students to 1,425 students.

Elementary school membership saw a slight increase due to increases in the birth to

kindergarten ratio and in-migration.

Middle school membership saw moderate growth due to increased cohort size of

entering students as compared to that of exiting students.

High school membership saw an increase due to in-migration and increased cohort sizes

of students progressing as compared to that of exiting students.

Student enrollment projections suggest that membership will result in capacity pressure

at more middle and high schools.

Continued collaboration with the Office of Facilities Planning Services needs to occur to

as consideration is given to selecting facilities to house new programs or when factors

are changing which may differently influence student migration/transfers to ensure

current and future facility space is available.

The region charts from the Proposed FY 2018-22 CIP are attached to this report in order to

assist FCPS and the School Board in making decisions (Attachment B). These charts display

the current and projected capacity balances at all of our elementary, middle, and high schools

over the next five years.

Lastly, the FCPS Facilities and Enrollment Dashboard contains additional information pertaining

to membership, capacity, facility, and program information.

(https://www.fcps.edu/enrollmentdashboard)

https://www.fcps.edu/enrollmentdashboard

Documents

School Year 2016-17 Membership Analysis and Trends · 2019-06-21 · School Year 2016-17 – Membership Analysis and Trends Current Membership Each year, as part of the preparation