Scotland – Census andHousehold Estimates and Projections

Esther Roughsedge, NRS Household Estimates and Projections branch

BSPS: Estimating future household formation16 December 2013

Large changes in trends over the last 50 years (not just an effect of economic downturn)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

all h

ou

se

ho

lds

1 person

2 people

3 people

4 people

5+ people

Household size in Scotland, 1961 to 2011

Source: census

The rate of household growth has slowed since 2007

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Year

An

nu

al i

ncr

ea

se in

ho

use

ho

lds

Start of global economic downturn

Annual increase in the number of households in Scotland between 2002 and 2012

Source: NRS household estimates

NRS household estimates and projections

• Household estimates are based on Council Tax figures.

• Household projections are based on population projections, with household trends projected from last 2 censuses.– Included variant projections, including

‘alternative headship’ variant, projecting lower household growth.

• 2011 Census estimate: 0.2% above the NRS household estimate• Most councils were within 2%

Council tax-based household estimates vs 2011 Census

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Local authority

Per

cent

age

diffe

renc

e

Household estimate higher than census

Household estimate lower than census

Household projections & censusHousehold size

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1 person 2 people 3+ people

Household size

Per

cen

tag

e o

f al

l h

ou

seh

old

s

2001 Census 2011 Census

Household projections - principal (2011) Household projections - alternative headship (2011)

Future plans

• Incorporate 3 censuses into the projections, to reflect the changing trends better.

• Produce projections from: – 1991 and 2001– 2001 and 2011– Combine, weighting the figures.

• This allows us to make adjustments in future projections, if appropriate.

Weightings - options

• Could choose the weights that give closest results to:

– Survey figures on household types;– Household estimates.

• Could try to minimise discrepancies between estimates and projections at council level.

• Need to be able to justify how the weights are devised.

Any questions?

Any comments would be very welcome!

For more info, contact:Esther.Roughsedge@gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk

Tel (0131) 3144251

www.nrscotland.gov.uk