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Sea-level rise trajectories by 2200 with warming of 1.5 to 2°C
S. Jevrejeva, D.F. Hendry, F. Mir Calafat and L. P. Jackson
The impact of sea-level rise is already felt
Jakarta already experiences significant coastal flooding due to seasonal high-tides coupled with subsidence
Sea level is the sum of many parts
The sea level you see anywhere in the world is the sum of a set components:
Global Regional
Sea level Land waterAntarcticaGreenlandGlaciersExpansion
Sea level is the sum of many parts
The sea level you see anywhere in the world is the sum of a set components:
Global Regional
Sea level Land waterAntarcticaGreenlandGlaciersExpansion
Sum of components
Observations
From Gregory et al. (2013)
Sea level is the sum of many parts
The sea level you see anywhere in the world is the sum of a set components:
Global Regional
Sea level Land waterAntarcticaGreenlandGlaciersExpansion
Sum of components
Observations
From Gregory et al. (2013)
Periodcovered (years)
Rate of global sea-level (mm/yr)
6,000 BC –1880 AD
0.3
1880 – 1992 1.8
1992 – 2017 3.4
Sea level is the sum of many parts
Where you are matters: each component has a unique spatial pattern
Currents
Global Regional Local
Sea level Land waterAntarcticaGreenlandGlaciersExpansion Uplift/subside
Making projections for Paris
Jackson et al. (2018)
Select temperature pathways from
CMIP5 models (RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5)
conforming to Paris thresholds by end-
of-century
Global sea-level projections for Paris
Jackson et al. (2018)
Fan shows different levels of probability
Global sea-level projections for Paris
Jackson et al. (2018)
Each component contributes to a different amount of uncertainty
Regional sea-level projections for Paris
Jackson et al. (2018)
Paris (1.5°C) Paris (2.0°C)
Most parts of the ocean experience a
sea level rise within ±20% of global average
Paris versus Business-as-Usual
Jevrejeva et al. (2018)
Paris (1.5°C)
Business-as-usual (>4°C)
Consensus across pathways as to sea level rise by mid-century
Present global and national climate response to emissions will
impact sea level pathway in second-half of century
Paris versus Business-as-Usual
Jevrejeva et al. (2018)
Deep uncertainty about the future of the polar ice sheets for high-end
projections
Paris versus Business-as-Usual
Jevrejeva et al. (2018)
Estimate country level coastal flood damages using global average sea level rise and present-day local
extreme sea levels
UK flood cost in 2100 (no further adaptation)US$ 241 billion per year (2.5 % UK GDP) with warming of 1.5 degree (median, 0. 5 m sea level rise)
US$ 619 billion per year (6.5% UK GDP) with RCP8.5 (median, 0. 8 m sea level rise)US$ 1.1. trillion per year (11.1 % UK GDP) with RCP8.5 (95%, 1.8 m sea level rise)
Global Sea flood cost,Million US$ per year
Global Sea flood cost, % of GDP (global)
UK Sea flood cost,% of UK GDP
Implications: sea flood damage costs
Jevrejeva et al. (2018)
Beyond damages: wider sea-level implications
International Law of the Sea
[e.g. Schofield & Freestone, 2013]
Beyond damages: wider sea-level implications
International Law of the Sea Transport and Communications infrastructure
[e.g. Internet infrastructure: Durairajan et al. 2018]
[e.g. Schofield & Freestone, 2013]
Beyond damages: wider sea-level implications
International Law of the Sea Transport and Communications infrastructure
[e.g. Internet infrastructure: Durairajan et al. 2018]
[e.g. Schofield & Freestone, 2013]
Combined mitigation and adaptation strategies [e.g. Blue Carbon: Doughty et al. 2017]
Beyond damages: wider sea-level implications
International Law of the Sea Transport and Communications infrastructure
[e.g. Internet infrastructure: Durairajan et al. 2018]
[e.g. Schofield & Freestone, 2013]
Combined mitigation and adaptation strategies [e.g. Blue Carbon: Doughty et al. 2017]
Human health and well-being[e.g. Patz et al. 2005]
Thank youConclusions
• Sea-level rise is already affecting many coastal populations worldwide
• Future sea-level change is intrinsically linked to our current and future climate.• Sea-level change is a long term inertial process that is likely to continue rising well after
2100, even under strong mitigation.
• There is consensus across scenarios that global sea level will rise by ~25 cm (rel. to 1995) by mid-century.
• There remains deep uncertainty about the future mass loss of the polar ice sheets.
• As sea level rises, coastal flooding will become more intense, more frequent and more costly (up to 11% UK GDP without further adaptation).
• Implications arising from present and future sea-level rise include- Territorial definitions- Damage to coastal infrastructure- Adaptation strategies that embed mitigation- Human health and well-being
Thank youPublications
Jackson, L.P., Grinsted, A. and Jevrejeva, S., 2018. 21st Century Sea‐Level Rise in Line with the Paris Accord. Earth's Future, 6(2), pp.213-229. Doi: 10.1002/2017EF000688
Jevrejeva, S., Jackson, L.P., Grinsted, A., Lincke, D. and Marzeion, B., 2018. Flood damage costs under the sea level rise with warming of 1.5° C and 2° C. Environmental Research Letters, 13(7), p.074014. Doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aacc76
