Seamless Forecast System

- Challenge and Opportunity

Yuejian Zhu

Ensemble Team Leader

EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA

Presents for NWP Forecast Training Class

March 30, 2015, Fuzhou, Fujian, China

Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction

Forecast

suite

Forecast

suite

Development

suite

Development

suiteService

suite

Service

suite

New TechnologyDecision & Management

Post Process Adding Values

User RequirementData AssimilationNWP Models

Planning

Chapter 1: Prediction Science – An Introduction

• General Weather Forecast– Historical overview (from first weather map to today’s digital forecast)– Development of environmental Science– Changing world from new technology: super-computer, satellite and radar– Latest NWP products (e.g: satellite look-a-like forecast)

• Completing the Forecast: Forecast Uncertainty– Debating: deterministic or probabilistic?– Challenge and opportunity– Where do the uncertainties come from?– Relative measure of predictability

• Ensemble System– Dynamic approach for assimilation and forecast (Monte Carlo)– Capturing flow dependence variation of forecast uncertainty– High dimensional solutions (state * probability)– Probabilistic measure and full PDF

• Verification and Confidence– Important tools– Forecast verification: accuracy and consistency– Two attributes: reliability and resolution– One scenario: confidence

Uncertainty forecast

Forecast verification

Forecast verification

Engineering Arts

Prediction Science

Science

WEATHERFORECAST

Omega Diagnostic Equation

p

VV

pfVk

VVV

t

)()]([)

2()( 2

)()()(

p

VkVf

pfV

t

)]([)]([)( 20202

2202

pV

ffV

p

f

p

f

Weather Forecast --- Science

Weather Forecast --- Engineering

Weather Forecast --- Arts

METEOROLOGIST气象学家

NEWS PAPER

RADIO

TV

END USERSMANAGEMENTS

DECISION MAKERS

INTERNET

预报科学 ( 大气科学学报 2010)

朱跃建( 美国国家环境预报中心 国家海洋和大气管理局 , 美国 马里兰　 20746)

摘要 : 世界各国和各地区的环境预报中心的主要任务是向本国、本地区和全球公众发布科

学的环境预报 , 包括天气、水、气候和空间天气的预报。气象学家与其他科学家合作 , 一起制作可靠、及时、准确的分析结果、指导意见、预报及预警 , 以确保人们的生命和财产安全 , 促进全球经济的发展 , 以满足人们日益增长的对环境信息的需求。为了更准确地制作预报、更好地服务大众以及最大限度地减少生命和财产损失 , 这里提出了“预报科学”思想。预报科学包括现代观测系统的资料收集、观测与预报信息的实时交流、各种科学技术的发展、无缝隙预报以及公共服务等。预报科学可以概括为三个相互独立的部分 , 即科学性、工程性和艺术性 , 且三者存在相互作用。总之 , 天气预报是大气与环境服务的重要组成部分 ; 预报科学的科学性、工程性和艺术性均服务于天气预报、服务于人民。

关键词 : 天气预报 ; 科学性 ; 工程性 ; 艺术性中图分类号 : P4; P45 　　文献标识码 : A 　　文章编号 : 167427097 (2010) 0320266205

Chapter 2: From Prediction to Projection- A Continuous Spectrum

• Concept: Seamless Forecast Suite– To understand forecast uncertainty– Forecast countdown, seamless– A continuous spectrum– Interactions between atmosphere-ocean-land

• Short-term, Medium-range and Extended-range Forecast– State-of-art numerical models– Promised observation information– Improving NWP system– Fine, digital forecast

• Seasonal to Annual Outlooks– Anomaly forecast for temperature and precipitation– Events discussion (such as ENSO, MJO)– Seasonal weather review - guidance– Climate prediction - outlooks

• Climate Projections– Expected and unexpected users– Societal requirements, expectations, and educations (policy relevance)– Reliability, user confidence, and risk– What’s next? (climate science, society, human being)

Forecast modeling

Forecast modeling

Climate projectionClimate projection

Chapter 3: From Research to Application- Cross the Valley of Death

• Science and Technology Infusion– Changing world: leading science and technology– Planning and project design: roadmap– Tracking and monitoring of progress– Accountability - benefits

• Interactions– Research-development-application: forward and backward (R2O, O2R)– Exchanging information: conference and workshop– Government role: achievement– Interaction with users

• Operational Updates– NWP models– Observation system– Information transmission (web, ftp and etc..)– Interaction

• Extreme Weather Forecast– Different view from different angle– Social and economic impact– Protection of values– Saving of lives

Extreme weather forecast

TransitionTransition

Chapter 4: From National Center to End User- Warranty and Responsibility

• Information Quality and Warranty– Functionalities of national center (such as NCEP)– Warnings and alert, watches– Guidance and Outlooks– Information refresh (updating)

• Technical Support– Post-process from model developers– Adding values to NWP – technology/engineering issues (such as MDL)– Down-scaling (such as NDGD, NDFD)– Interactive display system (such as AWIPS, NAWIPS, AWIPS 2)

• Coordination and Responsibilities– From center to regions– From forecasters to end users– Public service and private sector– Specific and targeted services

• Forecast and Decision– Public educations (general public and decision/policy makers)– Bridges of communication– Economic values– Science based decision – management system

DecisionForecast

We will have detail discussion of seamless forecast system

From prediction to projection

Chapter 2: From Prediction to Projection- A Continuous Spectrum

• Concept: Seamless Forecast Suite– To understand forecast uncertainty– Forecast countdown, seamless– A continuous spectrum– Interactions between atmosphere-ocean-land

• Short-term, Medium-range and Extended-range Forecast– State-of-art numerical models– Promised observation information– Improving NWP system– Fine, digital forecast

• Seasonal to Annual Outlooks– Anomaly forecast for temperature and precipitation– Events discussion (such as ENSO, MJO)– Seasonal weather review - guidance– Climate prediction - outlooks

• Climate Projections– Expected and unexpected users– Societal requirements, expectations, and educations (policy relevance)– Reliability, user confidence, and risk– What’s next? (climate science, society, human being)

Forecast modeling

Forecast modeling

Climate projectionClimate projection

Forecast UncertaintyForecast Uncertainty

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Week

Months

Seasons

Years

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate/Weather/Water

Weather Prediction Products

Climate PredictionProducts

Ma

ritim

eM

arit

ime

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats Assessments

Guidance

OutlookL

ife &

Pro

pe

rty

Life

& P

rop

ert

y

Sp

ace

Op

era

tion

sS

pa

ce O

pe

ratio

ns

Re

cre

atio

nR

ecr

ea

tion

Eco

syst

em

Eco

syst

em

En

viro

nm

en

tE

nvi

ron

me

nt

Em

erg

en

cy M

gm

t E

me

rge

ncy

Mg

mt

Ag

ricu

lture

Ag

ricu

lture

Re

serv

oir

Co

ntr

ol

Re

serv

oir

Co

ntr

ol

En

erg

y P

lan

nin

gE

ne

rgy

Pla

nn

ing

Co

mm

erc

eC

om

me

rce

BenefitsH

ydro

po

we

rH

ydro

po

we

r

Fire

We

ath

er

Fire

We

ath

er

He

alth

He

alth

HYDROLOGIC

PRODUCTS

Avi

atio

nA

via

tion

NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products

Space Weather Prediction CenterAviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations

Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Tropical Prediction Center

Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

Storm Prediction Center

Presented 17 February 2012 16

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction

CPC

HPC

SPC

SWPC

AWC

OPC

NHC

NCO

EMC

Presented 17 February 2012 17

The EMC Mission…..

Develop and Enhance numerical guidance– Improve NCEP’s numerical forecast model

systems via:• Scientific upgrades• Optimization• Additional observations

Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations– Transform & integrate

• Code• Algorithms• Techniques

– Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation

Maintain operational model suite– The scientific correctness and integrity of

operational forecast modeling systems– Modify current operational system to adapt to

ever-present external changes

EMC location within the funnel

In response to operational requirements:

Climate/WeatherLinkage

Week 2 Hazards Assessment

Forecast UncertaintyForecast Uncertainty

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Week

Months

Seasons

Years

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

CPC

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats Assessments

Guidance

Outlook

Benefits

TPCOPCHPC

SWPCAWCSPC

Service Center Perspective

Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 8

Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 :

NDFD, Days 4 -7

6-10 Day ForecastM

arit

ime

Ma

ritim

e

Life

& P

rop

ert

yL

ife &

Pro

pe

rty

Sp

ace

Op

era

tion

sS

pa

ce O

pe

ratio

ns

Re

cre

atio

nR

ecr

ea

tion

Eco

syst

em

Eco

syst

em

En

viro

nm

en

tE

nvi

ron

me

nt

Em

erg

en

cy M

gm

t E

me

rge

ncy

Mg

mt

Ag

ricu

lture

Ag

ricu

lture

Re

serv

oir

Co

ntr

ol

Re

serv

oir

Co

ntr

ol

En

erg

y P

lan

nin

gE

ne

rgy

Pla

nn

ing

Co

mm

erc

eC

om

me

rce

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Fire

We

ath

er

Fire

We

ath

er

He

alth

He

alth

Avi

atio

nA

via

tion

Seasonal Predictions

Climate/WeatherLinkage

Forecast UncertaintyForecast Uncertainty

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Week

Months

Seasons

Years

NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Climate Forecast System*

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats Assessments

Guidance

Outlook

Benefits

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model

Hurricane Models

Global Forecast System

North American ForecastRapid Update Cycle for Aviation

Dispersion Models for DHS- GFDL - WRF

NCEP Model Perspective

Ma

ritim

eM

arit

ime

Life

& P

rop

ert

yL

ife &

Pro

pe

rty

Sp

ace

Op

era

tion

sS

pa

ce O

pe

ratio

ns

Re

cre

atio

nR

ecr

ea

tion

Eco

syst

em

Eco

syst

em

En

viro

nm

en

tE

nvi

ron

me

nt

Em

erg

en

cy M

gm

t E

me

rge

ncy

Mg

mt

Ag

ricu

lture

Ag

ricu

lture

Re

serv

oir

Co

ntr

ol

Re

serv

oir

Co

ntr

ol

En

erg

y P

lan

nin

gE

ne

rgy

Pla

nn

ing

Co

mm

erc

eC

om

me

rce

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Fire

We

ath

er

Fire

We

ath

er

He

alth

He

alth

Avi

atio

nA

via

tion

NAEFS is good linkage

Between weather and climate

“Seamless”

North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

International project to produce operational multi-center ensemble products

Bias correction and combines global

ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA

Generates products for:Weather forecasters

Specialized usersEnd users

Operational outlet for THORPEX research using TIGGE archive

22

NCEP CMC NAEFSModel GFS GEM NCEP+CMC

Initial uncertainty ETR EnKF ETR + EnKF

Model uncertainty/Stochasti

c

Yes (Stochastic Pert) Yes (multi-physicsand stochastic)

Yes

Tropical storm Relocation None

Daily frequency 00,06,12 and 18UTC 00 and 12UTC 00 and 12UTC

Resolution T254L42 (d0-d8)~55kmT190L42 (d8-16)~70km

About 50kmL72

1*1 degree

Control Yes Yes Yes (2)

Ensemble members 20 for each cycle 20 for each cycle 40 for each cycle

Forecast length 16 days (384 hours) 16 days (384 hours) 16 days

Post-process Bias correction(same bias for all

members)

Bias correction for each member

Yes

Last implementation February 14th 2012 November 18th 2014

NAEFS Current StatusUpdated: November 18th 2014

12hr 2m TemperatureForecast Mean Absolute Error w.r.t RTMA for CONUSAverage for September, 2007

GEFS raw forecast

NAEFS forecast

GEFS bias-corr. & down scaling fcst.

24

NCEP/GEFS raw forecast

NAEFS final products

4+ days gain from NAEFS

From Bias correction (NCEP, CMC)Dual-resolution (NCEP only)Down-scaling (NCEP, CMC)Combination of NCEP and CMC

25

From Bias correction (NCEP, CMC)Dual-resolution (NCEP only)Down-scaling (NCEP, CMC)Combination of NCEP and CMC

NAEFS final products

NCEP/GEFS raw forecast

8+ days gain

24-h GMOSForecast

12-h NDFDForecast

For CONUS:GEFS(3.07) : NDFD(3.60)

GEFS (+17%)GEFS(3.07) : GMOS(3.37)

GEFS (+10%)

24-h GEFSForecast

Summary of 6th NAEFS workshop1-3 May, 2012 Monterey, CA

6th NAEFS workshop was held in Monterey, CA during 1-3 May 2012. There were about 50 scientists to attend this workshop whose are from Meteorological Service of Canada, Mexico Meteorological Service, UKMet, NAVY, AFWA and NOAA.

Following topics have been presented and discussed during workshop:• Review the current status of the contribution of each

NWP center to NAEFS• For each NWP center, present plans for future model and

product updates, for both the base models and ensemble system (including regional ensembles)

• Decide on coordination of plans for the overall future NAEFS ensemble and products (added variables, data transfer for increased resolution grids, FNMOC ensemble added to NAEFS, especially for mesoscale ensemble-NAEFS-LAM)

• Learn about current operational uses of ensemble forecast guidance, including military and civilian applications.

7th NAEFS Workshop in Montreal, Canada

• Time: 17-19 June 2014• Locations:

– 17-18 June – Biosphere, Montreal, Canada– 19 June – CMC, Dorval, Canada

• Co-chairs: Andre Methot and Yuejian Zhu• Topics (or sessions)

– Status and plan of Global ensemble forecast systems;– Operational data management and distribution; – Ensemble verification and validation metrics; – Reforecast, bias correction and post process; – Regional ensemble and data exchange; – Wave ensembles; – Integration of ensemble in forecasts: user feedback and recommendation; – Products – hazard weather, high impact weather and diagnostic variables; – Open discussion of the NAEFS research, development, implementation and operation

plan

29

Research and Operational ApplicationsIn Multi-Center Ensemble Forecasting

      

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/index.html

Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth (NCEP) Acknowledgements:

Glenn Rutledge (NCDC), Andre Methot (MSC), Michel Rosengaus (NMSM), Dan Collins, Bo Cui, Richard Wobus(NCEP)

NAEFS & THORPEX• Expands international collaboration

– Mexico joined in November 2004– FNMOC joined in 2009 (NUOPC)

• Provides framework for transitioning research into operations– Prototype for ensemble component of THORPEX legacy forecast system:

Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)

THORPEX Interactive GrandGlobal Ensemble (TIGGE)

North American EnsembleForecast System (NAEFS)

Articulatesoperational needs

TransfersNew methods

TIGGE Archive Centers and Data Providers

Archive Centre

Current Data Provider

Future Data Provider

NCAR NCEP

CMC

UKMO

ECMWFMeteoFrance

JMAKMA

CMA

BoMCPTEC

IDD/LDM

HTTP

FTP

IDD/LDM

Internet Data Distribution / Local Data Manager

Commodity internet application to send and receive data

Worley et al.

32

WMO THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE Working Group

WMO GIFS-TIGGE working group meeting was held on June 26-28 2012 in Boulder, CO USA

WMO GIFS-TIGGE working group meeting was held on June 12-14 2013 in Exeter, UK

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 33

NUOPC – National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability) is an agreement to coordinate activities between the Department of Commerce (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the Department of Defense (Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy and Air Force Directorate of Weather), in order to accelerate the transition of new technology, eliminate unnecessary duplication, and achieve a superior National global prediction capability.

The NUOPC partners determined that the Nation’s global atmospheric modeling capability can be advanced more effectively and efficiently with their mutual cooperation to provide a common infrastructure to perform and support their individual missions.

The NUOPC Tri-Agency (NOAA, Navy, Air Force) agreed to work on a collaborative vision through coordinated research, transition and operations in order to develop and implement the next-generation National Operational Global Ensemble modeling system.

34

Good - after adjustment Bad – after adjustment

Still not good – after adjustment

Perfect – don’t need adjustment

NCEPNCEP

NCEP

NCEP

FNMOC

FNMOC

FNMOCFNMOC A B

C D

5°K

Challenge !!!

35

week-1 week-2 one month

GEFS/NAEFSservice CFS

service

Weather/Climate linkage

NCEP/GEFS is running on T254L42 (GFS 9.0 version) resolution with tuned ETR initial perturbations and adjusted STTP schemefor 21 ensemble members, forecast out to 16 days and 4 cycles per day. Extended to 45 days at T126L28/42 resolution, 00UTC only (uncoupled)NAEFS will consider to include FNMOC ensemblein 2011, with improving post process which includebias correction, dual resolution and down scaling

Main eventMJO

Future Seamless Forecast System

Operational CFS has been implemented in2011 with T126L64 atmospheric modelresolution (CFSv2, 2010version) which is fully coupled with land, ocean and atmosphere(GFS+MOM4+NOAH), 4 members per day (using CFS reanalysis as initial conditions, one day older?), integrate out to 9 months.

IMME and NMME - ???

Main products:1. Probabilistic forecasts for every

6-hr out to 16 days, 4 times per day: 10%, 50%, 90%, ensemble mean, mode and spread.

2. D6-10, week-2 temperature and precipitation probabilistic mean forecasts for above, below normal and normal forecast

3. MJO forecast (week 3 & 4 … )

Main products:

ENSO predictions???Seasonal forecast???

SEAMLESS

The quality of NAEFS week-2

forecast