Selection of dairy cattle for lifetime profit

7th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. 2002

Selection of dairy cattle Selection of dairy cattle for lifetime profitfor lifetime profit

Paul M. VanRadenPaul M. VanRadenAnimal Improvement Programs LaboratoryAgricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

7th World Congr. Genet. Appl. Livest. Prod. (2) P. M. VanRaden200

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ObjectivesObjectives

Compare national selection indexes Document USA Net Merit index Discuss traits that affect profit and

direction of selection Outline approach for estimating

economic values


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Selection TheorySelection Theory

Progress = accuracy intensity genetic SD / generation interval

Multiply above by directional lossAccuracy = Corr (EBV, BV)Directional loss = Corr (e EBV, a EBV)Estimated (e) vs. actual (a) economic values Direction may be the most important

factor


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Direction of SelectionDirection of Selection

Trait 1

Trait 2


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Direction of SelectionDirection of Selection

Trait 1

Trait 2Accuracy contours

Animalsselected


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Trait Direction Not ClearTrait Direction Not Clear

Concentrated (less) or diluted (more) milk?

Large or small cows? Skinny or fat cows? Dairy or beef or dual purpose?

Direction may be changed more quickly by replacing a population than by selecting within the population


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1977 USDA Prediction1977 USDA Prediction

“If dual-purpose selection is abandoned in Europe, there may be more advantages to international semen exchange.”

“In the future, particularly if international selection goals become more uniform, research will be needed to determine what can be gained by introducing semen of bulls from other countries into U.S. improvement programs” (R.H. Miller, 1977 JDS)


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National Index ComparisonsNational Index Comparisons

Compare proportion of emphasis (relative value / Σ|relative values|)

Review table published by Holstein International magazine 1996-2000 monthly in each issue June 2002, approximately yearly

Examine indexes in further detail

Holstein International, June 2002


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National Selection Indexes:National Selection Indexes:Yield and Health TraitsYield and Health Traits

CountryUSA DEU FRA NZL NLD CAN GBR AUS ITA DNK SWE

% of Interbull Population 17.4 15.3 12.3 10.6 9.3 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 1.5Index Name NM$ RZG ISU BW DPS LPI PLI APR PFT S – I TMI

TRAIT Percent Emphasis in IndexProtein 36 36 35 42 35 43 57 36 42 21 21

Fat 21 9 10 13 8 14 11 12 12 10 4Milk 5 -22 -14 -19 -20 -3 -4

% Protein 4 2 3% Fat 1 2 2

Longevity 14 25 13 10 12 8 15 12 8 6 6SCS / mastitis 9 5 13 11 3 7 10 15 12

Fertility 2 13 7 9 10Other diseases 2 3


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National Selection Indexes:National Selection Indexes:Conformation and Management TraitsConformation and Management Traits

CountryUSA DEU FRA NZL NLD CAN GBR AUS ITA DNK SWE

% of Interbull 17.4 15.3 12.3 10.6 9.3 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 1.5

Index Name NM$ RZG ISU BW DPS LPI PLI APR PFT S – I TMI

TRAIT Percent Emphasis in IndexUdder traits 7 8 8 17 13 9 12

Feet / legs 4 5 1 3 11 6 5 9Size -4 2 2 -13 4 -4 2

Dairy form 3Rump 2 1

Final score 4 2Calving ease 3 10 6 12

Growth / meat 4 6Milking Speed <1 4 6Temperament 5 2 3


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QuestionsQuestions

Do cow shows and judging contests help or harm education?

What is feed cost for protein, fat? Net rather than gross income

Does milk volume have negative value only because of quotas? Milk volume quotas in Europe? People quotas in Australia, NZ?


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Prices of Milk and WaterPrices of Milk and Water

Cost to USA consumers ($ / liter)American bottled water 0.16Canadian spring water 0.51Skim milk (0.1% fat) 0.662% milk 0.683.25% (whole) milk 0.72French Alps water 1.35

Milk requires water, cheese does not


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Linear vs Non-linear ProfitLinear vs Non-linear ProfitCalculation of Net Merit $Calculation of Net Merit $

Non-linear profit = (income – expense per lactation) number of lactations + cull value – raising cost

Linear profit obtained by taking partial derivatives at trait means

Corr (linear, non-linear) = .999


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Lifetime Net Merit $Lifetime Net Merit $

Incomes and expenses estimated from yield traits, longevity, SCS, and conformation composites

Example: body size Convert from composite to weight Cull price - growth cost + lactations

(calves – maintenance) = $-1.28 / kg Less beef = more profit to dairy farmer


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Goals of Index CalculationGoals of Index Calculation

Give breeders the index they want Breed association or AI committees Emotional approach (TPI)

Give scientists the index they want Add incomes, subtract expenses Mathematical approach (NM$)

Future prices difficult to prove


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ConclusionsConclusions

Many traits in addition to yield contribute to dairy cattle profit

Longevity, fertility, and health traits have high value

Direction unclear for some traits Indexes have improved rapidly in

recent years


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History of USDA economic indexesHistory of USDA economic indexes(PD$, MFP$, CY$, and NM$)(PD$, MFP$, CY$, and NM$)

and Holstein Association TPIand Holstein Association TPIYear Introduced and Index Name

1971 1976 1977 1980 1984 1987 1989 1992 1994 1997 2000 2000Trait PD$ TPI MFP$ TPI CY$ TPI TPI TPI NM$ TPI TPI NM$

Protein 27 53 40 34 50 43 50 41 36Fat 48 46 45 40 34 17 25 17 16 21

Milk 52 60 27 60 -2 6 5% Fat 20

Longevity 20 13 14SCS 6 1 9

Udder 17 17 11 9 7Feet / legs 5 5 4

Size -4Final Score 40 20 20 17 17 17 14

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Selection of dairy cattle for lifetime profit