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SEMI Outlook Market Briefing
Jerome Boutant Europe Sales manager
June 17th , 2015
Agenda
High-level Overview
Fab Investment Trends Semiconductor Equipment Market
Semiconductor Materials Market
Summary
Overview
Evolution of Chip Demand
The Electronics Ecosystem
Materials
Semiconductor Equipment
Semiconductors
Electronic End Equipment
Source: SEMI, and McClean Report 2015, IC Insights
$1,488B
2014
$44B
$38B
$353B
2015
$42B
$46B
$378B
$1,584B
SEMI membership
Maturing Industry
Source: Presented by Scott McGregor, Broadcom, at SEMI ISS 2015
2015 Semiconductor Revenue Forecasts
3.4%
3.6%
4.0%
4.6%
5.0%
5.1%
5.9%
7.0%
8.0%
8.0%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
WSTS (Jun 15)
IDC (Jan 15)
Gartner (Apr 15)
Henderson Ventures (Apr 15)
JPMorgan (Jan 15; 4% to 6%)
Cowan LRA (Jun 15)
VLSI (May 15; IC only)
IC Insights (Jan 15)
Semico Research (May 15)
Semiconductor Intelligence (May 15)
Source: Compiled by SEMI
Chart1
0.034
0.036
0.04
0.046
0.05
0.051
0.059
0.07
0.08
0.08
Sheet1
WSTS (Jun 15)IDC (Jan 15)Gartner (Apr 15)Henderson Ventures (Apr 15)JPMorgan (Jan 15; 4% to 6%)Cowan LRA (Jun 15)VLSI (May 15; IC only)IC Insights (Jan 15)Semico Research (May 15)Semiconductor Intelligence (May 15)
3.40%3.60%4.00%4.60%5.00%5.10%5.90%7.00%8.00%8%
Fab Trends
March 20, 2015 Christian G. Dieseldorff, SEMI Industry Research Group, San Jose 9
Capacity chart does not include LED, EPI, Discrete.
Fab Equipment Spending- Driven by Foundry and Memory
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast March 2015
Total Fab Capex by Region- Spending on Fab Construction and Equipping
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast
Total fab capex to increase 3% to 4% in 2015 to reach ~$42B
36 fab constructions being tracked globally
Equipment spend total: $17B for Memory $14B for Foundry
Foundries- Ramping capacity in 2015 & 2016
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F 2016FFoundry only- 200mm 2.12 2.19 2.27 2.29 2.28 2.37 2.43
1.952.002.052.102.152.202.252.302.352.402.452.50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F 2016F
Inst
alle
d Ca
pacit
y (M
illio
ns w
pm)
Installed 200mm Foundry Capacity
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast
Equipment Market
SEMI North America Book-to-Bill Ratio
$600$800
$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600$1,800
Mar
-13
Apr-1
3
May
-13
Jun-
13
Jul-1
3
Aug-
13
Sep-
13
Oct-1
3
Nov-
13
Dec-
13
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr-1
4
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov-
14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15(
f)
Apr-1
5(p)U
S$ M
illio
ns
North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill(based on three month averages)
Bookings Billings
0.900.951.001.051.101.15
Mar
-13
Apr-1
3M
ay-1
3Ju
n-13
Jul-1
3Au
g-13
Sep-
13Oc
t-13
Nov-
13De
c-13
Jan-
14Fe
b-14
Mar
-14
Apr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4Au
g-14
Sep-
14Oc
t-14
Nov-
14De
c-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15(
f)Ap
r-15(
p)
Book
-to-B
ill R
atio
Source: SEMI May 2015
Chart1
1103.3991
1173.91086.3
1321.31223.4
1334.21213.7
1207.21204
1063.91081.9
992.81020.9
1124.51071
12381113.9
1380.81349.7
1280.31233.2
1295.41288.3
1297.71225.5
14431403.2
14071407.8
14551327.5
1417.11319.1
1346.11293.4
1186.21256.5
1102.31184.2
1216.81189.4
1381.51395.9
1325.61279.1
1313.71280.1
1392.71265.6
1572.21510.3
Bookings
Billings
US$ Millions
North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill(based on three month averages)
Sheet1
Apr-02May-02Jun-02Jul-02Aug-02Sep-02Oct-02Nov-02Dec-02Jan-03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Jul-03Aug-03Sep-03Oct-03Nov-03Dec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12Jan-13Feb-13Mar-13Apr-13May-13Jun-13Jul-13Aug-13Sep-13Oct-13Nov-13Dec-13Jan-14Feb-14Mar-14Apr-14May-14Jun-14Jul-14Aug-14Sep-14Oct-14Nov-14Dec-14Jan-15Feb-15Mar-15(f)Apr-15(p)
Bookings995.61105.21171.31181.91016.8831.6775.1776.7826.5739760.6777.3757.3723.5722.3706.9731.8778.8871923.31181.11226.11316.41378.81581.61559.61609.11587.41510.81349.81373.11329.11235.7986.41024.11003.4998.81015.310381007.31022.3984.11093.91093.21142.71225.91293.21385.31604.416191782.31734.61729.71639.21468.61426.51497.21445.81398.11419.61567.51641.91607.61406.31371.212351176.91130.71156.311411205.41165.61090.31029.3934.2889866.8649.9839.7783.8579.1277.2258.4245.6249287.8351.7571.8614.5758.9756.3791.8912.71178.41251.21332.61442.515251729.81836.61816.11651.21593.71512.61580151415961581$1,602.40$1,623.001540.41298.21162.4926.5$926.80$977.201102.91187.51336.9$1,445.701602.81613.7$1,424.30$1,234.601092.9912.8742.8718.6927.410761073.51103.3$1,173.90$1,321.301334.21207.21063.9992.81124.51238$1,380.80$1,280.301295.41297.7144314071455$1,417.10$1,346.10$1,186.20$1,102.30$1,216.80$1,381.50$1,325.601313.71392.71572.2
Billings814.6869.6927.1969.1994.81044.6999.9976.4878.3784.4777.7857.1840.4805.4776.5785.9792.3811.1866.5876.4962.91033.711441268.113941412.71503.41526.91497.81441.21430.61339.41317.31258.61330.61272.51239.212131152.21078.21055.51088.21145.91179.71223.61259.41283.31338.71441.41452.61557.41637.91742.81672.81562.91486.11482.3144814231436.41594.71670.21768.11685.81682.31557.41477.51383.21361.71279.31310.81344.91337.313131159.81077.21064.5927.3871.4806.8672.4584.2525.5438.3385.7392.6440.5538580648.4694.1744.2850.1957.61016.21100.81279.41344.81466.21495.81554.61610.91623.31567.31760.11786.918391657.5$1,635.40$1,669.201640.21521.21457.71313.5$1,258.30$1,176.7013001239.91322.8$1,287.601458.71539.3$1,535.70$1,442.801331.51164.4985.5910.11006.1968974.7991$1,086.30$1,223.401213.712041081.91020.910711113.9$1,349.70$1,233.201288.31225.51403.21407.81327.5$1,319.10$1,293.40$1,256.50$1,184.20$1,189.40$1,395.90$1,279.101280.11265.61510.3
To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.
Chart1
1.11
1.08
1.08
1.1
1
0.98
0.97
1.05
1.11
1.02
1.04
1.01
1.06
1.03
1
1.1
1.07
1.04
0.94
0.93
1.02
0.99
1.04
1.03
1.1
1.04
Category 1
Book-to-Bill Ratio
Sheet1
Column1May-02Jun-02Jul-02Aug-02Sep-02Oct-02Nov-02Dec-02Jan-03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Jul-03Aug-03Sep-03Oct-03Nov-03Dec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12Jan-13Feb-13Mar-13Apr-13May-13Jun-13Jul-13Aug-13Sep-13Oct-13Nov-13Dec-13Jan-14Feb-14Mar-14Apr-14May-14Jun-14Jul-14Aug-14Sep-14Oct-14Nov-14Dec-14Jan-15Feb-15Mar-15(f)Apr-15(p)
Category 11.271.161.020.80.780.80.940.940.980.910.90.90.930.90.920.951.011.051.231.191.151.091.131.11.071.041.010.940.960.990.940.780.770.780.810.840.90.930.970.90.950.930.930.971.011.031.111.111.141.060.990.980.940.961.0110.980.990.980.980.910.830.820.790.80.820.850.890.920.870.820.780.810.830.810.70.960.970.860.470.490.560.650.730.81.061.061.171.031.061.071.231.231.211.131.131.181.231.171.040.980.970.90.850.870.950.980.970.940.850.80.710.740.830.850.961.011.121.11.050.930.860.840.780.750.790.921.111.11.111.081.081.110.980.971.051.111.021.041.011.061.0311.11.071.040.940.931.020.991.041.031.11.04
To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.
Capital Equipment Market- Moderated cycles?
$37 $33
$40 $43
$30
$16
$40 $44
$37
$32
$38 $41
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
15