Seminar on the National Seminar on the National Strategy for the Strategy for the Development of Development of

StatisticsStatistics

AnguillaAnguilla

Friday 9Friday 9thth November, 2012 November, 2012

From National Statistical From National Statistical Office Office

to to National Statistical National Statistical

System System

The path of The path of TransitioningTransitioning

National Strategy for the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics Development of Statistics (NSDS)(NSDS)

The ultimate objective of the implementation of a NSDS is to have a fully established effective National Statistical System (NSS) because it is the NSS which has to be the engine to drive the policy dream or commitment of having Statistics developed to that level of being the premier instrument of policy support and decision making.

BackgroundBackgroundMost countries of CARICOM, have a National

or Central Statistical Office (NSO/CSO) and a loose arrangement of other units producing statistics primarily for their own use and without the wider vision that comes from overview which a NSO could provide.

NSO on its own can never substitute for a functional National Statistical System. The challenge therefore is to move the focus, the culture, the implementation from NSO to NSS.

Background (cont’d)Background (cont’d)Some of the great advantages of the

Regional Statistics Programme, under the aegis of the Statistics programme at the CARICOM Secretariat are: ◦ engendered culture of south-south cooperation

whereby Statistics Offices do not have to proverbially speaking ‘Reinvent the Wheel’ when embarking on any programme or area of statistics.

◦ tested documentation, metadata, statistical instruments and personal guidance could be given unhesitatingly by one Director to the benefit of the other.

◦ Majority of similarly structured or organized offices of the English-speaking Caribbean, hence making any adaptations or changes easy work.

Comparison Comparison Anguilla Anguilla Guyana Guyana

an island; one of the remaining British Overseas Territories,

occupies an area of 90 sq. km; the most northerly of the Leeward Islands in the Eastern Caribbean,

a population of 13,037 persons (Census 2011),

a staff of six (6) at the National Statistics Office.

a mainland country; one of three (3) mainland countries in the CARICOM group,

Occupies an area of 214,969 sq km (83,000 sq miles),

the only English-speaking country on the South American continent,

a population of 750,000 (Census 2002),

a staff establishment of 125, with 92 of those positions filled.

Differences - Geographically and Differences - Geographically and Culturally Culturally

Anguilla Anguilla GuyanaGuyana

Differences - Geographically and Differences - Geographically and CulturallyCulturally

Anguilla Anguilla GuyanaGuyana the six (6) person staff

would cover approximately 2200 persons and be responsible for 15 sq.km

92 staff would be responsible for approximately 8200 persons and a coverage area of approximately 2400 sq.km

Similarities Similarities All of the English speaking members (nations) of

CARICOM as well as Associated member countries were all, or still are, former colonies or today British Overseas Territories of the United Kingdom.

The Colonials were noted for their establishment of Systems of Administrative Order to track and record Statistics, with the legal underpinning, The Statistics Acts, in the era and period preceding independence i.e. in the 1950s and early 1960s.

by this simple application of economies of scale, most countries and offices have found their respective Statistics Acts grossly similar.

Similarities – Statistical ActSimilarities – Statistical ActAnguilla Anguilla Guyana Guyana

The duties of the Department of

Statistics shall be: to collect, compile, analyse.. to collaborate with other

Departments of Government and with Local Authorities.

to take any Census in Anguilla

generally to organize a co-ordinated scheme of social and economic statistics and intelligence pertaining to Anguilla

For purposes of this Act there

shall be a Statistical Department,

the duties of which shall be :  to collect, compile,

analyse… to collaborate with the

Departments of Government in the collection, compilation etc.

to take any Census, generally to organize a co-

ordinated scheme of social and economic statistics relating to Guyana.

Revised Statutes of Anguilla Chapter S60 Statistics Act, of 2000

Bureau of StatisticsStatistics Act, of 3rd July 1965

Similarities – Statistical Act Similarities – Statistical Act (cont’d)(cont’d)Whereas there was defacto collaboration with other departments of Government and Local Government , historical records and experiences regionally suggest that in the case of most Statistics offices, sub-section (d) of the Statistics Act was generally forgotten or treated as an afterthought, particularly the component relating to social statistics, because:

the area of social statistics was effectively treated as the ‘poor cousin’ of economic statistics in the eras of the 1960s, 1970s up to the mid 1980s

the Ministerial Responsibilities for the NSOs usually fell to the Minister with responsibility for Finance, Economic Development, Trade to name a few, so the priority focuses would have been closer to the subject matter of their Portfolios.

Area of Social StatisticsArea of Social Statistics The refocus on the area of social statistics was

really fuelled by the UN Social Summits of the 1990s and the declaration and adoption of the Millennium Development Goals by Member countries.

So NSOs really came under some pressure to give meaning to their mandate to ‘generally organize a co-ordinated scheme of social and economic statistics’ and more.

The ‘more’ required demonstrated Leadership of the NSO in a National Statistical System that was the cornerstone of a National Strategy for the Development of Statistics.

Bureau’s Social Statistics’ Bureau’s Social Statistics’ ExperienceExperience The Bureau had an ideal opportunity to put its

thoughts into action in establishing the framework of a National Statistical System with particular emphasis on the Social Sector.

This opportunity came with the IDB funded ‘Institutional Development of Social Statistics’ over the period 2005 to 2009.

The emphasis was on the strengthening of the Centre (the NSO) but with the ultimate aim of developing and sustaining the system.

Bureau’s Social Statistics’ Bureau’s Social Statistics’ ExperienceExperience

(cont’d)(cont’d) The Bureau therefore proposed, and the IDB

agreed, that to move forward in a way we should ‘start all over again’, so approximately twelve (12) new graduates (from the disciplines of Statistics and related) were recruited.

Nothing special about recruiting, this was done from time immemorial, but importantly all were interviewed by and recruited by the Bureau for the Bureau and behalf of all of the key social sector and other Line Ministries.

Further, the Bureau not only interviewed and recruited, but appointed them essentially as ‘interns’ whereby they were assigned to the Bureau for a period of six (6) to eight (8) months.

Bureau’s Social Statistics’ Bureau’s Social Statistics’ ExperienceExperience

(cont’d)(cont’d) They were given exposure in all aspects of

the Bureau’s work, exposed to further training on the job with the assistance of Lecturers from the University of Guyana.

It was at the end of this internship that the Statisticians were assigned to various Ministries, the Bureau expectedly retaining the best of the set.

ChallengesChallenges In today’s world, the efforts to establish and

develop the units of a National Statistical System in a wide geographical area could be seriously curtailed by the realities of underdevelopment of the country’s and area’s infrastructures.

As I said earlier Development in Statistics has to be driven by the Statistical System, as the NSO by itself would be ill-equipped to so do. However the NSO has to be the heart of the system.

It is a misconception by many that the role of the NSO is to produce every conceivable form of statistics, no matter how diverse or outlandish the subject area may seem to be.

Challenges (cont’d)Challenges (cont’d) Many forget that the NSO is also a user of

Statistics produced by the various sectors.

This is where some of the most telling impacts can be made by the NSO in influencing, improving, standardizing and improving the quality of data provided by other Sectors, the social sector particularly.

For example, the Interns who worked at the Bureau were able to experience at first hand, the problems that arise from poor quality and illogical data that are submitted by other sectors and ministries and are therefore unusable.

Challenges (cont’d)Challenges (cont’d) Now, those former Interns working in the

Statistical Units of Line Ministries have become the Bureau’s best advocates for ensuring the highest quality of data being supplied to the Bureau as a result of their exposure before assignments.

Ideally the proposal was for these former Interns to be made employees of the Bureau and for their assignments to be regarded as secondments. This ensures the sustainability of the system , the upward mobility of the Young Statisticians and as a consequence, their making statistics a career. The absence of official approval of this concept has slowed the process of the sustainability of the system.

Challenges (cont’d)Challenges (cont’d) When other units in a system produce data

from their sector perspective rather than with the advantage of overview that the NSO would provide, the inconsistencies and poor quality of data could be enormous.

Implications of Absence of Implications of Absence of NSO OverviewNSO Overview There can be no other place for an NSO but

in the centre of any NSS.

That unique position permits oversight and evaluation of all sector data especially when merged into a national dataset.

Absence of that oversight compromises the quality of national data. For example, in Trade Statistics, the Customs Department in one month reports a level of Imports ten times the level of average monthly Imports for the past two years.

Implications of Absence of Implications of Absence of NSO Overview (cont’d)NSO Overview (cont’d) A check by the Bureau of source documents reveal

that the importation were new bank notes which were recorded at their face values rather than the value of the paper from which it was made.

The General Registrar Office (GRO) reports over the inter-census period a continuous fall in births. Census count however, shows an increase in the number of children in the age cohort 0-4 and 5-9. Subsequent checks of the GRO data reveal that the documentation for new borns were not being processed and entered in total into their database, thus giving rise to the inconsistencies with the census numbers.

Implications of Absence of Implications of Absence of NSO Overview (cont’d)NSO Overview (cont’d) The Ultimate Challenge:

◦ Whereas the NSO is bound by its Statistics Act, which conveys penalties to the respondents for failure to supply data on demand and equally to the Director of Statistics and employees for breach of confidentiality of the data supplied by respondents, in the NSS, the other units comprising the system are not bound by the very Statistics Act governing the NSO.

◦ In this region, the biggest nightmare of a Director of Statistics is the breach of confidentiality of data because in small societies like ours, an NSO cannot survive such damage to its reputation. However, in the 50 years or more of the establishment of Department of Statistics, there has been no known breach of confidentiality. But the expansion from NSO to NSS and the expansion in IT have increased the risk of data breach, a further challenge to the NSO.

Current Census Current Census EnumerationEnumeration

Guyana is still in the field in the enumeration phase,

Travel to the Amerindian village of Masakenari in the deep south - close to the Brazilian border to sensitize the community of about 2,000:Just to note that to get there required a two-hour

flight from Ogle on the Coast to Lethem, the main administrative hub in the deep south, Region 9.

A small note that the flight time is the same as it takes to fly from Georgetown to Bridgetown by LIAT.

This was followed by a further one-hour flight from LETHEM to the famous Gunn’s strip, followed by a 50 minute trek to get to the village.

An overview An overview

of the of the

Bureau of Statistics’ Bureau of Statistics’

DevInfo Work ProgressDevInfo Work Progress

DevInfo - Capacity DevInfo - Capacity BuildingBuildingTraining in the Administrative and

User Modules for both version of the software (DevInfo 5.0 & DevInfo 6.0) was done to participants drawn from Government - Line Ministries and Agencies and also to the UN Agencies in Guyana.

Participants from the Government and UN Agencies are now able to use DevInfo to prepare reports from their respective sectors

DevInfo Adaptation - DevInfo Adaptation - Activities Activities

1. Conversion of Bureau’s in-house database into DevInfo

2. Conversion of MICS3 (Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey) data into DevInfo 5.0

3. Conversion of data from the various line ministries and agencies into DevInfo 5.0

4. CARICOM will be technical house for DevInfo – for trainings and consultations

5. Presentations of DevInfo to the Permanent Secretaries, Key Stakeholders and Support Agencies as part of UNICEF Annual Review

Guyana’s Adaptation Guyana’s Adaptation Technical Assistance

The Bureau of Statistics received technical assistance from the CARICOM DevInfo team and UNICEF Guyana in the customization, development and implementation of Guyana’s adaptation of DevInfo 5.0

Components

Product Name: Product Name: The name adopted for the Guyana’s adaptation is GuyD_Info “Guyana Information for Development”

Product Icon: Product Icon:

Images: Images: Thirty five (35) images arranged in groups of seven (7) which were provided by UNICEF were attached to the adaptation. These images depict the diverse cultures of Guyana through their people and other historical sceneries

Product BannersProduct Banners – Two Product Banners were created: The colour scheme used was in keeping with the colours of the Guyana Flag in order to have a sense of nationality and relating to information on children and youth

Guyana’s Adaptation - Guyana’s Adaptation - InterfaceInterface

GuyD_Info GuyD_Info 1.01.0

“Guyana Information for Development”“Guyana Information for Development”

GuyD_Info 1.0 Icons for both modules

GuyD_Info 1.0 User Interface

Demonstration of DevInfo Demonstration of DevInfo usageusage(using data from Ministry of (using data from Ministry of Health)Health)

Sample data received from Sample data received from Ministry of HealthMinistry of Health

Selecting Indicator (Birth and Selecting Indicator (Birth and Death Rates)Death Rates)

Selecting AreaSelecting Area

Selecting Time PeriodSelecting Time Period

Selecting The SourceSelecting The Source

Results After Querying the Results After Querying the DatabaseDatabase

Options Available for Data Options Available for Data PresentationPresentation

TABLE MAP GRAPH

Map of Live BirthsMap of Live Births

Table of Births and DeathsTable of Births and Deaths

Graph of Births and Graph of Births and DeathsDeaths

What Else Can DevInfo Do?What Else Can DevInfo Do?

Representation of data using Representation of data using Density MapDensity Map

Each Person Represents 10,095 Persons on the Map

Policy QuestionsPolicy Questions

Policy question - by sector:

Labour and employment policy:Labour Force Indicators: Impact of government policy and programs on employment and labour market (table on occupation (1991, 2002, 2006)) HealthPer capita health expenditure as percent of per capita total expenditure by region (household expenditure on health - 2006) – an indicator of the health status of household – Impact of government health programs. Monitoring that would be useful with data availability Improved Sanitation - impact of government policies and initiatives on improved sanitation (table: 1991, 2002, 2006) EducationImpact of the improvement in level of education and qualification of females to the employment of females in senior management position HousingImpact of the ministry of housing ‘s housing scheme and allocation of lots – owner occupied dwellings

FutureFuture Developments/PlansDevelopments/Plans• Development of the Web Version of GuyD_Info (using DevInfo 6.0) and CensusInfo for Census Disemmination

• Maps to be developed for dissemination at lower levels of administrative units e.g. NDCs

• Utilization of economic and real sector data

• Pursue with the DevInfo Development Group the inclusion of Pictographs to further enhance the colour coding for area comparability

• Roll-out of DevInfo in schools

•Continuation of conversion of data received from line ministries into GuyD_Info database

Up to date data from social sector line ministries

Timely publication and release of data by the respective agencies. e.g. 2009 data is still outstanding for most agencies

A need for awareness by policy makers on the importance of timely data

Issue still unresolved due to systems and policies of data publication by respective line ministries

A coordinated and harmonized system of data publication and dissemination across government and department and agencies.

Key Challenges

CONCLUSION

The merits of a NSS cannot be contested or doubted, however, a NSS cannot be established by Decree.

It has to be formulated, nurtured and developed by the NSO which is structured to be the natural leader of such a system.

The system will be as strong as its weakest link. A country or system cannot afford for that weakest link to be the NSO itself.

A prerequisite to an NSS therefore is the investment in strengthening the NSO because a strong NSO guarantees the eventual sustainability of the country’s NSS.

THE ENDTHE END

THANK YOU!THANK YOU!