Senior Seminar Fall 2008ISP 4860

Section 003 (Bowen)

Class 3, September 17Course web site: www.is.wayne.edu/drbowen/SenSemF08

9/17/08 ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 3 2

Agenda

• Tonight in UGL Lab C (Room 3150)

• Searching WSU research databases Deborah Tucker

• Review of human footprint

• Content: urbanization

• Assignments Research portfolio

• Writing: organization

9/17/08 ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 3 3

The Human Footprint

• Refers to total human impact on earth Includes how we affect ourselves

• We are not typical – we are at the rich end

• Many systems we depend on are stretched now

• Will get worse Population growth, economic growth, safety

margin

9/17/08 ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 3 4

The Human Footprint

• Quick review of different areas – all interlocked Population Urbanization Ecosystem services Food / fish Water Energy / Global Warming Tragedy of Commons Consumption & waste Development / disease Land: dwelling & food Sustainability

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All Are Interlocked

• Cannot solve one while making others worse Yes, this is interdisciplinary This is why I want your paper to begin and

end (Chapters 1 and 5) with the overview

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The human footprint

• Many of these areas are in trouble now• Will get worse

Population growth Economic growth Safety margin

• World population now about 6.6 B, headed for 9.1 by 2050 (UN)

• Will increase need for resources in all areas

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Human Population

Region 2007 Pop (B) 2050 UN est.

World 6.6 9.1

China 1.3 1.4

India 1.0 1.5

US 0.31 0.41

Europe 0.73 0.65

More Developed 1.2 1.2

Less Developed 5.4 7.8

Least Developed 0.80 1.7

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The Human Footprint

• Most of additional world population will be poor, use fewer resources

• So population rise might not have as large an impact as the numbers suggest, but…

9/17/08 ISP 4860 Fall 2008, Class 3 9

The Human Footprint

• Will get worse – economic growth Rest of humanity wants to be like developed

world US ~4.5% of population For example, we consume 20 M Bbl/day of

petroleum, whole world consumes 80 (US 25%)

Factor of five to seven increase (depends on area) if they achieve our current lifestyle

If new population is poor, they will have further to develop, so same problem eventually

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The Human Footprint• Will get worse

I suggest we also need a safety factor because systems are stretched now

• Maybe 1.5 for safety factor Total increase in consumption:

1.5 (population) × 6 (consumption) × 1.5 (safety) = 12 to 15 (8 to 10 without safety factor)

No one knows how to produce this much more in any aspect

• YOUR PAPER CAN STOP HERE

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The Human Footprint

• One view is that the future will be like our present, but with more people So we just need to muddle along, adjusting

here or there• But no, we can’t get there (see previous)• Need to reinvent civilization

Has happened several times before Should we hurry the change along, or

continue the present as long as we can?• Different people have different opinions here• Someone has to have an idea before change

happens

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The Human Footprint• How can a change this large happen,

worldwide? I don’t see any government that has the ability

and the will to force it on the world Therefore, the change must be something we

all see as better than what we have now Probably composed of many small changes

and experiments that accumulate

• My own guess is that online life will be a part – we see it starting already

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The Human Footprint

• US and other developed countries in the best position to lead these changes Many people seeing this as good business

also If it is too expensive for poor countries, won’t

work, unless they develop economically

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Content: Urbanization

• Urbanization: mass movement of people (especially poor) into cities Has already happened in developed

countries, but will grow to 75% Not in PIP In SOP, part of Human Population chapter –

pg 16 ff UN projection: almost all growth will be in

cities in the poor countries• 2.2 B ↑, 2.1 B ↑ in cities, 2.0 ↑ in poor countries

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Urbanization (Vital Signs 2007-2008)

• “Megacities” – more than ten million population – number is increasing

• What causes this: Higher urban birth rates Rural poverty War

• Problems: Poverty – UN defines this as lack of at least

one basic necessity (water, sanitation, housing, secure tenure)

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Urbanization

• Problems Poor move to cities without housing,

sanitation “Squatting” No education, jobs, etc. Will need to recycle more resources within

urban areas

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Urbanization (2008 NYT Almanac)

Rank 1975 2000 2005 2015

1 Tokyo Tokyo Tokyo Tokyo

2 NY-Newark

Mexico City

Mexico City

Mumbai

3 Mexico City

NY-Newark

NY-Newark

Mexico City

4 ? São Paulo São Paulo São Paulo

5 ? Mumbai Mumbai NY-Newark

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Other Demographic Trends

• Urbanization is a demographic trend• Aging is another – world population will get

older in all regions• Life expectancy:

World: 67 More developed regions: 76 Less developed regions: 63 Least developed countries: 27

• Another: increasing literacy, worldwide

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Assignments

• Today – choice of topic via Moodle

• Next week (September 24) Meet in 79 Manoogian, and for rest of

semester My office hours in 64 Manoogian Bring Research Portfolio to class (next page)

• October 8 – list of references

• October 15 – draft of Chapter 1 (overview)

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For Next Week…

• Have research portfolio: Three-ring binder Dividers to separate sections – example sections

• Syllabus• Study Tools: dates, names, definitions, etc.• Word hoard: Definitions of new words you learn.• Weekly Meetings: notes, handouts• Scrapbook: materials related to course including newspaper clips,

media comments, INTERNET downloads, ads, cartoons, summaries of conversations, documents, essays, etc.

• Final Research Paper: all materials related to papers such as drafts, database sheets and bibliography, notes, photocopies of readings, and all drafts.

• Pouch for tools such as pens, markers, 3-hole punch, stapler, etc.• Place for 3½-inch floppy diskette labeled with your name, or a USB

flash drive, any capacity

• Ready for Moodle picture

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Writing: Organization

• Not required, but Paper Planner on course website has helped some

• Outline used to be important, but with word processor can change material around

• Another outline activity Arrange cards in best order Turn in group report Done