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Kansas Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Conference Wind 2007 RFP Update John Grimwade - Sr. Director Strategic Planning and Development September 26, 2007

September 26, 2007

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Kansas Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Conference Wind 2007 RFP Update John Grimwade - Sr. Director Strategic Planning and Development. September 26, 2007. About KCP&L. KCP&L’s Comprehensive Energy Plan provides a balanced approach to meeting the region’s energy needs. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: September 26, 2007

Kansas Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Conference

Wind 2007 RFP Update

John Grimwade - Sr. Director Strategic Planning and Development

September 26, 2007

Page 2: September 26, 2007

Page 2

About KCP&L

Page 3: September 26, 2007

Page 3

KCP&L’s Comprehensive Energy Plan provides a balanced approach to meeting the region’s energy needs

Page 4: September 26, 2007

Page 4

Spearville Wind Energy facility

Page 5: September 26, 2007

Page 5

Comprehensive Energy Plan – Renewable Energy Additions

KCP&L’s original plan had targeted for 200 MW of wind additions by the 2008 timeframe

Through the collaborative workshops this amount was reduced in the base Comprehensive Energy Plan to 100 MW with a commitment for the stakeholders to consider a second 100 MW in 2008.

Page 6: September 26, 2007

Page 6

KCP&L’s 2007 Wind RFP

Multiple options were requested to address alternatives for location timing, quantity and ownership structure

Both Kansas and Missouri sites were requested Minimum of 100 MW of wind powered generation to be on-line

by October 1, 2008 Options for additional 300 MW of wind powered generation to

be on-line by October 1, 2012 Asked for both PPA and Build/Transfer alternatives

Page 7: September 26, 2007

Page 7

RFP Timeline

Issue Press Release and RFP • March 29, 2007

RFP’s due to KCPL• June 15, 2007

RFP Evaluation Process• June - August, 2007

Seek Regulatory and Stakeholder consensus• September – October, 2007

Contract Negotiations • September - October, 2007

Projected Construction Start Date • 2Q, 2008

Projected Last Turbine On-line Date • 4Q, 2008

Post 2008 Construction Activity Dependent Upon RFP Proposals

Page 8: September 26, 2007

Page 8

KCP&L Received strong interest for projects to be completed in 2008 and from 2009-2012

• Missouri Proposals Received

– Two proposals were received that offered a 2008 on-line date

– Five proposals were received that offered a 2009 or later on-line date

• Kansas Proposals Received

– Nine proposals were received that offered a 2008 or 2009 on-line date

– Seven proposals were received that offered a 2009 or later on-line date

Page 9: September 26, 2007

Page 9

Screening Methodology – 2008 On-line Proposals

Preliminary Screening• High Level Analysis – Evaluated all proposals based on multiple factors• Assessed unacceptable risk for completion or operation of the project• BTA Proposals – Moved to final screening evaluation if they passed the High Level

Analysis• PPA Financial Analysis – Ranked the PPA proposals from lowest cost to highest cost

for proposals in each state then performed High Level Analysis

Transmission Service Impact Analysis – KCPL hired an independent engineering firm to perform a load flow analysis on those proposals that were moved to the final screening evaluation process

Final Screening – Using the financial and generational data provided in each proposal, along with the results of the transmission service impact analysis, a 20-year Net Present Value Revenue Requirements (NPVRR) analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of each proposal against a No Wind base case.

Page 10: September 26, 2007

Page 10

The cost to install 100 MW of new wind capacity has increased 55% over 2003 cost estimates

Wind Project Cost Increase (%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Pe

rce

nt

Inc

rea

se

Page 11: September 26, 2007

Page 11

Financial Analysis of 2008 vs. 2009 Projects

2008 VS. 2009 Wind Proposals (20 year NPVRR)

2008 2009 -w/ PTC

2009 -No

PTC

2008 2009 -w/ PTC

2009 -No

PTC

2008 2009 -w/ PTC

2009 -No

PTC

2008 2009 -w/ PTC

2009 -No

PTC

2008 2008 2008 2008 2008

ABTA BBTA CBTA DBTA/PPA EPPA APPA CPPA DPPA FPPA(MOSITE)

NP

VR

R

High CF Low CF No Additional Wind

Page 12: September 26, 2007

Page 12

Required Renewables Estimate - Missouri & Kansas UtilityUnder Bingaman

Renewable Capacity Required (MW @ Cap Factors)

Year RPS % Retail Load

Req. Rene

w 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

2005 0% 160,770,816 0 0 0 0 0 0

2006 0.00% 166,356,444 0 0 0 0 0 0

2007 0.00% 168,257,057 0 0 0 0 0 0

2008 0.00% 172,555,893 0 0 0 0 0 0

2009 0.00% 174,881,400 0 0 0 0 0 0

2010 3.75% 178,013,069 6,675,490 2,540 2,177 1,905 1,693 1,524

2011 3.75% 181,277,843 6,797,919 2,587 2,217 1,940 1,724 1,552

2012 3.75% 184,466,335 6,917,488 2,632 2,256 1,974 1,755 1,579

2013 7.50% 187,444,19914,058,31

5 5,349 4,585 4,012 3,566 3,210

2014 7.50% 190,491,24914,286,84

4 5,436 4,660 4,077 3,624 3,262

2015 7.50% 193,558,72014,516,90

4 5,524 4,735 4,143 3,683 3,314

2016 7.50% 196,381,88614,728,64

1 5,605 4,804 4,203 3,736 3,363

2017 11.25% 199,248,63422,415,47

1 8,529 7,311 6,397 5,686 5,118

2018 11.25% 202,165,46222,743,61

4 8,654 7,418 6,491 5,770 5,193

2019 11.25% 205,125,92823,076,66

7 8,781 7,527 6,586 5,854 5,269

2020 15.00% 208,132,72131,219,90

811,88

0 10,183 8,910 7,920 7,128

Page 13: September 26, 2007

Page 13

And the winner is???