Dec. 9, 2010

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京都大學　グロバール COE プログラム 2009-2014

極端気象と適応社会の生存科学Sustainability/Survivability Science for a Resilient Society Adaptable to Extreme Weather Condition

Adaption (2)Adaption (2)

Dr. Bin HEhebin@flood.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jpDisaster Prevention Research InstituteKyoto University, Japan

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www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/csgr/events/.../agriculture

What is adaption? What is adaption?

Adjustments made to ‘enhance resilience’ or ‘reduce vulnerability’

Adaptation practices may be looked at from various perspectives:◦ Spatial scale◦ Climate stress / hazard◦ Baseline economic development level of the systems they are

implemented in Relating adaptation to adaptive capacity

◦ Adaptive capacity represents potential rather than actual adaptation

Regardless of mitigation, we are faced with a finite, and significant degree of anthropogenic climate change

Adaptation is necessary in the short and longer term to address impacts resulting from CC.

Unmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt.

Adaptation capacity is intimately connected to social and economic development but is unevenly distributed across and within societies.

International levelInternational level

National levelNational level

Regional/local levelRegional/local level

IPCC, Global modellingetc.

Climate change information,scenarios, legislation, monitoring

Measures, planning, management,crossectorial approach

Lars-Erik Liljelund @Swedish Environmental Protection Agency 2009-09-01

Different level of adaptationDifferent level of adaptationDifferent level of adaptationDifferent level of adaptation

Regional/local levelRegional/local level

Adaptation: Reactive, AnticipatoryAdaptation: Reactive, Anticipatory

Insurance is an instrument for providing ‘risk-cover’ against the impacts of climate change and variability, specifically for extreme weather events. ◦Public-private partnerships◦Disaster risk insurance◦Specifically in case of extreme events◦ Insurance may be an instrument worth

exploring

Simulation tools (hydrologic model, economic models)

Decision tools (cost-benefit analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, multi-criteria analysis)

Integration tools and frameworks (Adaptation Policy Frameworks, National Action Plans for Adaptation)

Cross-cutting technology (geographical information systems, remote sensing)

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Most urban centres in low-income nations with low levels of GHG emissions; not much to ‘mitigate’.

Strong synergies between mitigation & adaptation for prosperous cities but not for all urban centres.

Urban expansion needs to take into account mitigation – but for most urban centres in low-income nations, adaptation far more important.◦ Why are northern funded programmes in Africa and Asia

emphasizing mitigation above adaptation?

www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/SOW09_CC_cities.pdf, www.irfnet.ch/files-upload/knowledges/Are-cities-really-to-blame.pdf

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More than a third of the world’s total population A sixth of the world’s total population Most of the growth in the world’s population Most economic growth

◦ 87% of total GDP in low and middle income nations now from industry and services

◦ Successful economies need well-functioning urban centres Urban and rural development can be hugely

complementary◦ Urban areas as markets and service centres for agriculture and

rural populations◦ Successful agriculture as a key stimulus to local urban

development

More than a third of the world’s total population A sixth of the world’s total population Most of the growth in the world’s population Most economic growth

◦ 87% of total GDP in low and middle income nations now from industry and services

◦ Successful economies need well-functioning urban centres Urban and rural development can be hugely

complementary◦ Urban areas as markets and service centres for agriculture and

rural populations◦ Successful agriculture as a key stimulus to local urban

development

adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/101/adapt_e.phphttp://www.iccgov.org/files/ADAPTATION/DeBruin&DellinkActorReactversion_25_03_2009.pdf, life.com, yourrealestatetips.com

Most cities have large populations at high risk from extreme weather ◦ Common for 30-60% of the population to live in informal settlements◦ A high proportion on dangerous sites – floodplains, steep slopes◦ Drainage networks rarely cover more than half a city’s population

Climate change imposing new constraints, changing constraints and bringing uncertainty

Adaptation is impossible without ◦ basic protective infrastructure & services for entire population (but

very few urban areas have these)◦ special programmes to address those who are most vulnerable

Other measuresOther measures

Underground space

Construction of flood diversion channelsConstruction of flood diversion channelsConstruction of flood diversion channelsConstruction of flood diversion channels

KI

www.mass.gov/dep/public/committee/1009pres

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Climate is the most significant factor in determining plant growth and productivity

Under large uncertainty and potentially large damages, how information about risk and cost define the private strategies of farmers regarding when to invest in adaptation?

Will a farmer adopt a more aggressive adaptation strategy if he or she perceives his risk to be higher than average?

What knowledge does the farmers have today?

Have they already started to adapt?

Issues in rural areasIssues in rural areas

www.hgu.gu.se/Small%20farmers%20adaptation%20climate%20change- Cape%20Town

1. Optimizing water use efficiency: Drip irrigation in vegetable and fruit; Fertigation system (irrigation and fertilizer)

2. Optimized use of fertilizers to minimize leaching and nitrous oxide emissions.

3. Evaluate varieties suitable for changing agro-climatic conditions (drought, heat stress, high salinity, disease-resistance, etc)

4. Evaluation of crop production under protected culture

1. Optimizing water use efficiency: Drip irrigation in vegetable and fruit; Fertigation system (irrigation and fertilizer)

2. Optimized use of fertilizers to minimize leaching and nitrous oxide emissions.

3. Evaluate varieties suitable for changing agro-climatic conditions (drought, heat stress, high salinity, disease-resistance, etc)

4. Evaluation of crop production under protected culture

Response and Adaptations Measures

Optimizing energy mix by developing low-carbon and renewable energy

Solar radiationSolar radiation

Promote Sustainable Agricultural practicesPromote Sustainable Agricultural practices(soil conservation, integrated plant nutrient management , integrated (soil conservation, integrated plant nutrient management , integrated

pest management etc).pest management etc).

fi.cnr.itsgp.undp.orguwsp.edu

Constructing a soil conservation structure, to prevent the topsoil erosion.

http://www.cawd.zju.edu.cn/Detail.aspx?type=kycg&id=14http://news.163.com/09/1105/11/5NBQCJ94000120GR.htmlhttp://www.cnlssww.com/News_View.asp?NewsID=2529ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/005/y4875e/y4875e06.pdf

Are risk minimizing and suitable for resource-poor farmers, enabling them to cultivate fruit and vegetables on dikes and bunds and to raise small livestock (pigs and poultry) as is culturally and economically preferred.Safeguard water, soil resources and agro biodiversity (of both rice and fish) and support a rich cultural diversity and associated management.

Are risk minimizing and suitable for resource-poor farmers, enabling them to cultivate fruit and vegetables on dikes and bunds and to raise small livestock (pigs and poultry) as is culturally and economically preferred.Safeguard water, soil resources and agro biodiversity (of both rice and fish) and support a rich cultural diversity and associated management.

Rice-fish systems Rice-fish systems

LivestockLivestock

Modify the Modify the environment environment to minimize to minimize heat stressheat stress(e.g. cooling, (e.g. cooling, shading, etc)shading, etc)

agnet.orgcoloradodisasterhelp.colostate.edu

Provide adequate waterProvide adequate water

Lower stocking densities to minimise mortality.Provide better quality feed (additives and mineral supplements)

Adjustments in planting and harvesting dates Planting of new crop varieties and species Changes in farming practices – tillage, use of

topography Application of fertilizers, pesticides and

herbicides Use of irrigation – timing and dose Use of farm equipment – tractors, harvesters, etc Improved food storage systems Herd management – splitting, switching,

diversification Transportation

Adjustments in planting and harvesting dates Planting of new crop varieties and species Changes in farming practices – tillage, use of

topography Application of fertilizers, pesticides and

herbicides Use of irrigation – timing and dose Use of farm equipment – tractors, harvesters, etc Improved food storage systems Herd management – splitting, switching,

diversification Transportation

OthersOthers

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Urban dependence on rural resources and eco-system services (including protective services)

Many urban livelihoods depend on rural (producer and consumer) demand for goods and services

How vulnerable low-income urban populations are to higher food prices or disruptions in food supplies

How many (poor and non-poor) households have rural and urban components to their livelihoods, incomes and asset bases

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Rapid informationRapid information

chithings.com

clipartof.com

Flood GateFlood Gate

Tsunami hazard map of Suzaki CityTsunami hazard map of Suzaki City

A non-structural measure “flood hazard map”A non-structural measure “flood hazard map”Flood hazard maps are a tool to show inundation risk areas, evacuation sites, etc. to residents in an easy-to-understand way based on inundation risk area maps produced by river administrators. The maps aim to help residents’ quick and safe evacuation.

Rainwater HarvestingRainwater Harvesting Concentrating, diverting, collecting, storing, and

utilizing and managing runoff for productive use.

Contribute to recovery of agricultural production in dry area as well as provide water for sustainable development.

brokencitylab.org

http://bee-eazybags.typepad.com/the_buzz/plastic_bag_bans/

icis.comfeel-good-friday.blogspot.com

Plastic bagPlastic bag

Save transportationSave transportation(Paper, time, energy)(Paper, time, energy)

http://www.google.co.jp/images

Turn off you TV, PC, etc.Turn off you TV, PC, etc.Each PC consume 60-250 wat/dayIf so, 83% CO2 can be saved

http://www.google.co.jp/images

Use public transportationsUse public transportations

http://www.google.co.jp/images

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Action on adaptation is needed now Focus on urban areas Core of adaptation is local development including

poverty reduction & good local governance Effective adaptation for urban areas needs effective

adaptation for rural areas Exploring insurance as the tool for providing risk cover

against climate change and variability Climate Change is a global science; adaption to CC,

especially extreme weather events, are local, regional, national and global.

Action on adaptation is needed now Focus on urban areas Core of adaptation is local development including

poverty reduction & good local governance Effective adaptation for urban areas needs effective

adaptation for rural areas Exploring insurance as the tool for providing risk cover

against climate change and variability Climate Change is a global science; adaption to CC,

especially extreme weather events, are local, regional, national and global.

5. Concluding remarks5. Concluding remarks

The ppt-file of this lecture can be downloaded from

http://ars.gcoe.kyoto-u.ac.jp/index.php?id=134

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IPCC, 2007http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/index.htmhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/extremes.html

sgp.undp.orgwww2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/csgr/eventsamericanprogress.orgwww.google.co.jp/imagesecopolitology.orgflickr.comwww.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/SOW09_CC_cities.pdf, www.irfnet.ch/files-upload/knowledges/Are-cities-really-to-blame.pdf

etc.

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Thank you.

Questions?

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