Setting Development Goalsfor Population Dynamics & Reproductive Rights

January 9, 2013

John F. MayVisiting FellowCenter for Global Development

Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

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1. Population DynamicsNew Challenges

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Great Divergence in Fertility Levels• 16% of the world population: TFR >4.0

children per woman (mainly LLDCs)• 38%: TFR between 2.1 and 4.0 children

(diverse group)• 46%: TFR<2.1 children per woman (North

America, Europe, and China & some Asian countries)

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Age Structure’s Transformation

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Youth Bulge (and Security Demography)

When the proportion of 15-29 age group represents more than 40% of all adults (15+)For example: Pakistan (2010) = 46.4%

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Urbanization

Since 2009, >50% of the world population is urban

And 2/3 of people will live in cities in 2050

Issue of slums (1 billion people)

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International Migration

About 3% of world population

This proportion will increase …

… and so will tensions around international migration issues

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Population Aging

• Elderly support ratioFor example: Germany2010 = 3 persons aged 15-64 for 1 person 65+2050 = 2 persons aged 15-64 for 1 person 65+• Depopulation of some countries (Russia)

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2. Reproductive RightsA Renewed Emphasis

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Family Planning Past Abuses

India: Emergency 1975-77 China: One-child policy 1979 Abuses in Latin America (e.g.,

Peru) Top-down approaches Target setting

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Focus on Reproductive Rights

1. The reaction against FP past abuses and2. The realization that family planning is necessary but not sufficient

Resulted in reproductive rights agenda adopted at ICPD Cairo (1994)

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Reproductive Health

Child Health

Domestic Violence

Maternal Health

Family Planning

HIV/AIDS & STDs

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Millennium Development Goals

Family planning was left out in 2000, and included only in 2005 (Target 5b)

Need to address Pop/RH issues in the next development framework

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3. Setting Development Goals

The Way Forward

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Inequity & Poverty

The DHS quintile analysis has enriched our understanding of inequity

Rapid population growth is linked to poverty at household level

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Demographic Dividend

Situation in which working age groups expand relative to dependents, with more favorable dependency ratios• Opportunity for faster economic growth

(East Asian experience), but sound economic & social policies are needed

• Window of opportunity limited in time

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A Multisectoral Approach

Link family planning efforts with female education & income generating activities

Empowerment of women Human capital formation (i.e.,

education & health)

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Priority Groups

Women (and their partners): they represent half of the population –absolutely key for any future progress

Youth: in many LLDCs, 30% of the population is between 15 and 29

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Political Commitment

IT IS CRUCIAL (e.g., Tunisia, Rwanda)

Need for more advocacy Concept of “Public Demography” Convey key demographic

concepts in a simple way

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Thank you!