Seven Year Electricity Planning Statement-Main-report (1)

8/11/2019 Seven Year Electricity Planning Statement-Main-report (1)

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Forward

I have the pleasure in releasing the 2011 Seven Year Electricity Planning Statement (7YPS) fortransmission within the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and, where appropriate, our network outside of theauthorized area covering the period 2012-2018. In producing this document, we have endeavoredto ensure that our customers, both existing and future, are presented with an opportunity tounderstand the scale and type of transmission network operated by us. We have sought to ensurethat customers are able to identify areas of the network where additional investment is proposed inorder to increase available capacity or otherwise ensure that network performance continues toattain the targets expected from such a critical infrastructure provider.

This is the second 7YPS released in response to Condition 15 of the Transmission and DespatchLicence that provides detailed short to medium-term plans for the transmission network. The plans

included in the 7YPS are linked to the needs and investment requirements and are based on thenetwork development strategy covering the period 2010-2030 that places much greater emphasison the trends and drivers which provides a long-term vision for taking the transmission systemforward consistent with Governments 2030 vision.

Feedback on this 7YPS is most welcome in order that TRANSCO is able to continue to adjust its

planning and development strategies to meet the regulatory, customer and stakeholderrequirements and expectations.

Copies of approved 7YPS could be downloaded from our website www.transco.ae .

Dr. Najib H DandachiAsset Management DirectorTRANSCO


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Table of Contents Main Report

Forward......2

Table of Contents.......3

Acronyms and Definitions.........5

Executive Summary.......8

1 Introduction.........21

2 Network Development Strategy......24

3 Planning Principles......39

4 Demand-Generation Background........44

5 Planned Transfers....52

6 Evolution and Performance of Transmission Network...55

7 Asset Management...64

8 Transmission System Capabilities and Opportunities.........65

9 Capital Delivery..........76


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Table of Contents (continued)

Attachments

Attachment-A

Electricity generation capacity expansion plan and electricity demand forecast schedules.

Attachment-B

Electricity transmission network topology (400kV, 220kV, 132kV system).Geo-map of transmission network topology (400kV and 220kV system) for Year 2011 & 2018.

Attachment-C

Forecast power flows and loading on the transmission system for Year 2011-2018.

Attachment-D

Fault levels at the transmission nodes for Year 2011-2018.

Attachment-E

Transmission system dataset.

Attachment-F

Brief description on major existing generation plants and planned committed generation projects.


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Acronyms and Definitions

7YPS: Seven Year Planning Statement

AC: Alternating Current

AED: UAE Dhirams

AAPS: Al-Ain Power Station

AADC: Al-Ain Distribution Company

ADDC: Abu Dhabi Distribution Company

ADNOC: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company

ADWEA: Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Authority

ADWEC: Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Company

ACCC: Aluminum Conductor Composite Core

ACSR: Aluminum Conductor Steel Reinforced

CSP: Concentrated Solar Power

CAPEX: Capital expenditure

DEWA: Dubai Electricity and Water Authority

DISCOs: Distribution Companies

DSM: Demand Side Management

EMAL: Emirates Aluminum Smelter Plant

ENG: Emirates National Grid

FEWA: Federal Electricity and Water Authority

GCC: Gulf Cooperation Council

GDP: Gross Domestic Product


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HVDC LCC: High Voltage Direct Current Line Commuted Converter

ICAD: Industrial City of Abu Dhabi

kV: Kilovolt

KPIZ: Khalifa Port and Industrial Zone

KSA: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

MEAV: Modern Equivalent Asset Value

MW: Megawatt

MVA: Megavoltampere

NPV: Net Present Value

OPEX: Operational expenditure

PAS55: 55 th Publicly Available Specification

PV: Photovoltaic

RSB: Regulation and Supervision Bureau

SASN/UAN: Sas Al Nakheel/Umn Al Nar

STATCOM: Static Synchronous Compensator

SVC: Static VAr Compensator

TRANSCO: Abu Dhabi Transmission and Despatch Company

UPC: Abu Dhabi Urban Planning Council

USERs: DISCOs, GENCOs, ADNOC, Non-embedded customers, interconnected utilities

UAE: United Arab Emirates

VAr: Volt Ampere

VSC: Voltage Sourced Converters

WLCC: Whole Life Cycle Cost


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Planned transfer is the planned power flows across the identified boundary/lines.

Transfer capability is the maximum power flow across the identified transmission boundarywithout causing any unacceptable conditions as a result of secured events.

Secured event is the event that relates to a fault outage of a single transmission circuit under IntactSystem; or outage of a single transmission circuit with planned outage of another transmission

circuit, a generating unit or reactive element.

Identified generation capacity is the total gross electricity generation capacity available from allexisting power plants, power plants which are under construction and committed power plants lessthe off-set capacity available due to life-time capacity retirements.

Required generation capacity is the total gross electricity generation capacity required to satisfythe generation security of supply standard that takes into account the generation planning criteriaand other factors such as forced outage rate, demand forecast error, spinning reserve.


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Executive Summary

E1 Introduction

Condition 15 of the Transmission Licence requires the Abu Dhabi Transmission and Despatch

Company (TRANSCO) to prepare a seven year planning statement (7YPS) annually in a form

approved by the Regulation and Supervision Bureau (RSB or Bureau). In relation to the electricity

transmission system, the requirement is to contain the following information in each of the seven

succeeding financial years:

a) Capacity, forecast power flows and loading on each part of the transmission system, and faultlevels for each electricity transmission node.

b) Plans for capital expenditure necessary to ensure the relevant transmission system meets thesecurity and performance standards and future demands.

The 7YPS has been developed in the context of the TRANSCOs network development strategy

for the period to 2030 that sets a long-term vision for taking the transmission system forward. The

network development strategy places much greater emphasis on the trends and drivers which

provides a long-term vision for taking the transmission system forward consistent withGovernments 2030 vision. The 7YPS describes more detailed short to medium-term plans for the

transmission system and is linked to the needs and investment requirements for the period 2012-

2018.

The main purpose of the 7YPS is to enable the Users seeking the use of the transmission system, to

identify and evaluate the opportunities available when connecting to and making use of suchsystem. Such opportunities shall be guided by the Statement of Connection Charging

Methodology to make a reasonable estimate of the charges to which they would be liable for the

provision of such services. It also gives a forward view on the proposed transmission infrastructure

expansion plans to meet the forecast demand growth and planned new generation


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and status. The cutoff date for input data is 30 April 2011. All information received after this date

will be updated in TRANSCO 2012 7YPS (2013-2019). The 7YPS presents a wide range of

information relating to the planning and development of 400kV, 220kV and 132kV transmission

system within the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and, where appropriate, TRANSCOs network outside of

the authorized area.

E2 Network Development Strategy

TRANSCOs network development strategy is to continue to develop a flexible, reliable, secure,

accessible, robust, economical, efficient, environmentally friendly and safe transmission system

that meets the needs of its customers in a manner consistent with its License obligations.

This is achieved through:

Implementing a structured asset management process that takes cognizance of best practiceasset management principles for the development and stewardship of the transmission network

and requirements for capital assurance governance.

Continuing with the development of 400kV main bulk transmission system. Given the

uncertainty in the demand and generation background, the possible need to migrate to 765kVor HVDC as the main overlay transmission system option across the West-East corridor is to

be kept under review, particularly if significant level of additional generation capacity beyond

Shuweihat S3 and Braka nuclear plant are contracted in the Western region, and that there is

increased requirement to provide power to Northern Emirates.

Incremental deployment and integration of new technologies and best available practice.

It is intended that the development of the transmission network will be done in such a manner to:

Have minimum negative side-effects on the environment and society.

Accommodate large central and decentralized generation and storage.


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Optimize asset utilization and operate efficiently through integrated outage management, riskassessment, improved process, resource management and use of technology and decision

support tools.

Anticipate and respond to system disturbances.

Operate resiliently under unforeseen events.

Figure E-1 shows the expected 400kV transmission system configuration by 2030.

2025 Best View (30GW)

Al-AinSouth West

Dahma

Sweihan

Mussafah

Shahama

Warsan

Dhaid

Ras AlKhaimah

To Salwa 400kVGrid Station

(KSA)

Sharjah

SASN

Taweelah

Qidfa

Sila

ICAD

MahawiBahia

Al Wasit Area(Sultanate of Oman)Shamkha

Hameem

Al-Ain Airport

Ajman

New FujairahCity

Mirfa

Wathba

SAS Al NakheelBeach

Al Qurm

ADST

ReemSadiyat

Bahia

ZayedSports City

Braka

400kV grid station

400kV Tower (double circuit)

400kV CableSingle Circuit

Single 400kVOverhead Line Circuit

400kV grid station associated with Power Plant

Madinat Zayed

Bab

ChemaWEyaat

Shuweihat

Ruwais


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E3 Demand-Generation Background

Global peak electricity demand (include supplies to Abu Dhabi Emirate and Northern Emirates) is

forecast to increase to between 16GW-24GW by 2018 according to ADWECs 2011 forecast

update. This represents an average growth rate of about 9% and 16% per annum for the period

2010-2018 related to the two demand forecasts. For the purposes of preparing this 7YPS an

intermediate demand level of about 20GW by 2018 is also considered. This together with the

generation background described below is consistent with the best-view long-term transfersestablished in the network development strategy. The demand scenarios are used to indicate

uncertainty and market volatility in the forecast. The principle demand drivers are industrial,

residential and commercial development expansions; and export supplies to Northern Emirates.

The proportion of industrial demand relative to peak demand is forecast to increase as the UAE

diversifies its economy and there is the potential for variations of the locational development of

demand within the outlier demand scenario.

To meet these demands, the existing power generation plants contribute about 12GW (as on 2010)

of capacity. New committed generation projects identified to date which are expected to be

integrated into the main bulk transmission grid during the period 2011-2020 are:

Shuweihat S2 (~1.62GW) and Shuweihat S3 (~1.65GW) combined cycle fossil fuel plantslocated adjacent to the existing Shuweihat S1 site in the Al Gharbia region.

Shuweihat S2 is integrated to transmission network and operational in 2011.

The Braka site in the Gharbia region has been identified to promote nuclear generation of totalcapacity 5.6GW by 2020. Generator units of 1400MWe are expected to be integrated to the

transmission system.

Shams-1 concentrated solar power (CSP) plant with a maximum installed capacity of 110MWat a facility located south of Madinat Zayed in the Gharbia region.

Nour-1 photovoltaic solar power (PV) plant with a maximum installed capacity of 100MW at apotential facility in Al-Ain region.


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Some of the existing generation plants are expected to retire during the period 2017-2020. These

are located at Mirfa (186MW), Umn Al Nar (778MW), Al-Ain Power Station (256MW) and

Madinat Zayed Power Station (109MW). The available capacity off-set due to the closure of above

existing generation will be about 1.3GW by 2020. To compensate for the expected generation

retirements, there could be a possibility to locate some new generation capacity (of the order of

1GW) either by re-developing the existing Umn Al Nar (UAN) plant site (in Eastern region close

to Abu Dhabi Island) or locate some new generation capacity close to Sweihan (in Al-Ain region).

In either case, no major 400kV transmission reinforcement works are required as theexisting/planned main bulk transmission infrastructure by 2020 in UAN and Sweihan has

sufficient transmission capability to evacuate the above generation.

To meet the TRANSCOs best view planned transfers after Shuweihat S3 generation; there is a

need to integrate an additional major new generation into the transmission system from 2015.In addition to Taweela-C option (in Eastern region), there are two other potential generation sites

options available. These are Al Mirfa (in Gharbia region) and Hamria/Ras Al Khaimah

(in Northern Emirates). While the need to utilize all of the above three generation sites could be

possible in the long-term, nevertheless one of the above-mentioned generation sites is considered

to be the most likely next generation site to satisfy the demand-supply gap and the emerging gap

between the identified generation capacity and the required generation capacity upto 2020. 400kV transmission reinforcement is required across Shamkha-Sweihan corridor common for all

the three potential generation site options in addition to the generation integration works required

at their respective generation sites. For the potential generation site option at Mirfa (in Gharbia

region) only, major 400kV transmission reinforcement is required within the Gharbia region and

across the West-East corridor to evacuate power generation from the Gharbia region.

Figure E-2 shows the demand-generation background for the period 2010-2018.

Figure E-3 shows the region-wise demand forecast for the 20GW intermediate scenario.


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Figure E-2 Demand-generation background upto 2018 .

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

G W

Installed Gen Capacity (Existing) Committed Gen Capacity 22.5GW Scenario (16GW by 2018)

32.5GW Sce nario (18. 5GW by 2018) 20GW Intermediate Scena rio (20GW by 2018) 38.5GW Scenario (24GW by 2018)

Global demand growth rate (2010-2018)

ADWEC's 22.5GW scenario = 9.2%


20GW Intermediate scenario = 13.1%


8,485

9,845

11,167

13,436

14,730

16,85117,582

18,783

20,046

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

P e a k

D e m a n

d ( M W )

Abu Dhabi Islands' Eastern RegionGharbia (Western) Region Al-Ain RegionNorthern Emirates Incl. Water Pump & Aux. Loads Auxiliary & Desalination Process Loads i n AD EmirateTransmission Losses Coincident Total System Peak

Growth Rate (2010-2018)

System (AD+NE) = 13.1%; Abu Dhabi Emirate = 11.9%

Abu Dhabi Islands' = 7.8%; Eastern Region = 15.7%

Gharbia Region = 24.4%; Al-Ain Region = 6.3%


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E4 Regional and International Grid Interconnections

To support the Government of Abu Dhabi initiative to bolster the domestic energy security,

TRANSCOs transmission system will increasingly integrate with Emirates National Grid (ENG)

and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Figure E-4 shows the simplified high-level grid

interconnection arrangement (existing and current plans) with ENG/GCC grids.

Figure E-4 Simplified high-level grid interconnection arrangement with ENG/GCC grids.

Existing 400kV GridsCommitted 400kV Grids

Sweihan

Warsan

Dhaid

Ras Al Khaimah

Shuweihat

To Salwa 400kV Grid Station

(KSA)

Sharjah

Qidfa

Sila

Al Wasit Area(Sultanate of Oman)

Ajman

New FujairahCity

Taweela

New 400kV Tower (double circuit)

T R A N

S C O T

r a n s m i s s i o

n N e t w

o r k

i n

A b u D

h a b i E m

i r a t e

Foah

Existing 220kV Grids

Existing 220kV Tower (double circuit)

400kV OHL Tower (double circuit)

Generation Site


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Potential maximum transfers between TRANSCO and regional/international grids under Secured

Event conditions could include:

1GW through the current existing Northern GCC 400kV interconnector between UAE-KSA.

170MW through the current existing Southern GCC 220kV interconnector between UAE-Oman. Maximum transfers are planned to be increased to about 1GW through the future

400kV interconnector between UAE-Oman.

2GW through the current existing ENG interconnections to Northern Emirates (i.e. through400kV interconnector between Taweela-Warsan, and 400kV interconnector between Fujairah

Qidfa-Sweihan) with possible range of exports.

These interconnections will not only enhance the security of supply but also reduce the spinning

reserve requirements and facilitate power exchange among member utilities and states, while

providing a mechanism to mitigate against gas supply shortages and uncertainty in the levels of

demand growth. It will also reduce plant procurement cost through achieving higher efficiency and

plant load factors apart from reducing the global operating costs of the integrated electricity

market.

E5 Planned Transfers

The requirements for the transmission system development and its associated investments are

primarily driven by the demand and generation backgrounds identified above and the resulting

power transfers on the transmission system. There are uncertainties associated with the demand

and generation backgrounds as with any forecasts and plans. These uncertainties will affect futureplanned power transfers on the transmission system and hence the way the transmission system

develops. Using scenarios analysis, the planned power transfers on the transmission system are

established for the most probable demand-generation scenarios envisaged during the period 2010-

2018 and ensure consistency with the long-term approach Envelopes of possible transfers are


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Different demand forecast scenarios namely 22.5GW scenario (i.e. 16GW by 2018),Intermediate scenario (i.e. 20GW by 2018) and 38.5GW scenario (i.e. 24GW by 2018).

Different locational development of next possible generation (Mirfa, Taweela-C, Hamria) tomeet the above demands from 2014/2015 through to 2018 after Shuweihat S3 generation.

Figure E-5 shows the envelope of possible transfers and the best-view planned transfers across the

five identified boundary corridors for the peak demand-generation background during the period

2010-2018. It also shows the transfer capability (represented in blue text) across the identified

boundary corridors for the peak demand-generation background in 2010.

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

B o u n d a r y

T r a n s

f e r s

( M W )

-2 ,000

-1 ,000

0

1 ,000

2 ,000

3 ,000

4 ,000

5 ,000

6 ,000

2010 2012 2014 2 016 201 8

A l - A i n

r e g i o

n

N o r t h

e r n E

m i r a

t e s-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

B o u n d a r y T r a n s f e r s ( M W )

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018


6,000

8,000

r s ( M W )

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

B o u n d a r y

T r a n s

f e r s ( M W )


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E6 Evolution of Transmission Network

Using the best view planned transfers as the basis a network development plan has been produced.

The evolution of the transmission network based on the best-view planned transfers is detailed

below. This is consistent with the network development strategy.

Major committed 400kV transmission system expansion projects are expected to be completed

during the period 2011-2015 to meet the system needs and to accommodate committed newgeneration projects.

The 400kV transmission facilities from the existing Shuweihat Power Station is capable of

evacuating power from both Shuweihat S1 & S2 generation (total about 3.2GW) to meet the

demand requirements in the Western (Gharbia) region and exports to the Abu Dhabi Region. To

evacuate power generation from the committed Shuweihat S3 generation (about 1.65GW), a new400kV grid station is planned within the Shuweihat S3 plant site. A new 400kV grid station is also

planned at Braka in 2015 to facilitate the integration of the nuclear power plant in 2017/2018. The

400kV West-East corridor reinforcements ensure an integrated approach to evacuating power from

S3 and Braka while meeting the demands in the Western region.

New 400kV grid stations and related 400kV overhead line works are expected to be integrated tothe transmission network to meet the respective regions demand requirements. These are

400/220kV grid stations in Ruwais and Bab (in Gharbia region); 400/220kV grid station in ICAD

and 400/132kV grid stations in Bahia, Mahawi and Shamkha regions (in Eastern region); and

400/132kV grid stations in Ajman, Sharjah and New Fujairah City (in Northern Emirates).

A new 400kV grid station and related 400kV overhead line works at Sila have been completed in2011 as part of the UAE plan to integrate with the GCC grid. A new 400kV grid station and related

400kV overhead line works are planned to facilitate increased interconnection with Oman grid.

400kV XLPE underground cables projects along the Abu Dhabi Island-Sadiyat-Bahia corridor


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E7 Asset Management

The transmission network is comparatively young. However, there will be requirements for assets

approaching the end of their useful lives to be managed and replaced at an appropriate time. Asset

management process improvements are required to capture the knowledge to build only what

needed. Integrated outage management and risk assessment needs to be considered for improved

operational efficiency. Maintenance practices and resource management processes shall be

programmed and managed innovatively to better position the transmission network for next20 years of operation and maintenance.

It should be noted that TRANSCO recent management practice is to move towards achieving

PAS55 requirements. This is to be achieved through a structured asset management process that

takes cognizance of best practice asset management principles for the development and

stewardship of the transmission network and requirements for capital assurance governance. The

PASS55 framework includes policies, procedures and processes for managing the asset base and

also embraces continuous improvement - an aspect important to TRANSCO as it seeks to better

understand its assets to identify the short- and long-term replacement requirements. As part of the

PASS55 process and the associated need of a long term network development strategy,

consideration has not only been given to the requirements of the transmission system to

accommodate load growth but also to the requirements to replace assets as they come to the end oftheir useful life or where their performance or technologies employed result in inefficiency.

In the short to medium term, the average total forecast replacement expenditure is expected to be

less than 1% of the total load-related expenditure for the next five years. The asset class that

contributes to the replacement expenditure is transformers, switchgear, protection and auxiliary

systems. This is due to their age reaching the end of useful life and technology being obsolete.


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E8 Capital Delivery

The transmission system development requirements and associated investments are largely driven

by the demand and generation background and the resulting power transfers on the transmission

system. As there will continue to be a degree of uncertainty in the realization of the volume,

location and timing of demand and generation backgrounds in any given area, the potential

transmission reinforcement plans shall be established in a phased manner and that the options are

maintained at minimum cost to provide a least regret solution.

In view of the economic downturn and greater uncertainty in the development requirements; some

project proposals and schemes are evaluated with intent of optimizing the assets utilization taking

into account the potential risks. The risks could be if the demand does not materialize as expected

or if the demand comes early, project delays and its impact on network performance and security

of supply could result. Risk mitigation measures through various scenario/optioneering approachesare built into the planning proposals by engaging relevant Stakeholders and Users in order to

achieve a consensus on the optimum balance of overall benefits/savings and risk trade-off.

Considering the current economic scenario, TRANSCO has already taken action in delaying some

planned assets or relocating elsewhere if the contracts already awarded. Hence, there is a

likelihood of potential deviations of some project proposals and schemes included in this 7YPS.

Chapter-9 provides a brief high-level summary of capital and replacement projects. These include

only the major on-going, currently under tendering process and new planned power projects to

meet the future demands and performance standards for the period 2012-2018. These projects have

been categorized according to their needs and drivers. Whilst some of these identified seven year

capital projects shall be initiated depending on their priority level and subject to the receipt of

approvals from relevant authorities, for others it is proposed to continue monitor the developmentsof the market and update the plans accordingly.

The detailed capital delivery and capital forecast for the on-going and planned power projects to


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1.0 Introduction

Condition 15 of the Transmission Licence requires Abu Dhabi Transmission and Despatch

Company (TRANSCO) to prepare seven year planning statement (7YPS) annually in a form

approved by the Regulation and Supervision Bureau (RSB or Bureau). In relation to the electricity

transmission system, the requirement is to contain the following information in each of the seven

succeeding financial years:

a) Capacity, forecast power flows and loading on each part of the transmission system, and faultlevels for each electricity transmission node.

b) Plans for capital expenditure necessary to ensure the relevant transmission system meets thesecurity and performance standards and future demands.

The Sector Law requires the Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Company (ADWEC) to prepare a

demand forecast and accordingly secure the future generation capacity to meet the short and long-

term requirements of the Sector.

The 7YPS has been developed in the context of the TRANSCOs network development strategy

for the period to 2030 that sets a long-term vision for taking the transmission system forward. Thenetwork development strategy places much greater emphasis on the trends and drivers which

provides a long-term vision for taking the transmission system forward consistent with

Governments 2030 vision. The 7YPS describes more detailed short to medium-term plans for the


2018.

The main purpose of the 7YPS is to enable the Users seeking the use of the transmission system, to

identify and evaluate the opportunities available when connecting to and making use of such

system. Such opportunities shall be guided by the Statement of Connection Charging


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This is the second 7YPS which contains the latest updated information and replaces all Statements

released earlier. The 7YPS covers the planning horizon 2012-2018. 2011 7YPS (2012-2018) isbased on the best available updated information from ADWEC and Users; updated project scope

and status. The cutoff date for input data is 30 April 2011. All information received after this date

will be updated in TRANSCO 2012 7YPS (2013-2019). The 7YPS presents a wide range of

information relating to the planning and development of 400kV, 220kV and 132kV transmission

system within the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and, where appropriate, TRANSCO network outside of

the authorized area.

The 7YPS update contains the following chapters:

a) Network development strategy

This chapter summarizes the network development strategy for the period to 2030 that sets a long-

term vision for taking the transmission system forward. It places much greater emphasis on thetrends and drivers which provides a long-term vision for taking the transmission system forward

consistent with Governments 2030 vision.

b) Planning principles

The principles used for the planning and development of the electricity transmission system arebriefly described. For ease of understanding, these principles are summarized under five categories

namely the general criteria, connections conditions, generation connection criteria, main

interconnected transmission system criteria and demand connection criteria. These principles are

fully described in the latest versions of the Electricity Transmission Code and Electricity

Transmission System Security Standard.

c) Demand-generation background

The requirement for the transmission system development and its associated investments is

primarily driven by the demand and generation backgrounds. In this chapter, the demand-


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d) Planned transfers

This chapter summarizes the possible transfers and best-view planned transfers based on thedemand-generation backgrounds that determine the requirements for the transmission system

developments and its associated investment plans.

e) Evolution and performance of transmission network

The evolution of 400kV, 220kV and 132kV transmission system within the Emirate of Abu Dhabiand, where appropriate, the TRANSCO network outside of the authorized area up to 2018 are

presented. The evolution of the transmission network is based on the best-view planned transfers.

A brief description of its impact on the system performance is described. The forecast power flows

on the transmission system in PSS/E format; fault levels for each electricity transmission node for

valid load conditions for the best-view scenario are included.

f) Asset management

The requirements for assets approaching the end of their useful lives to be managed and replaced

at an appropriate time are briefly summarized in this chapter.

g) Transmission system capabilities and opportunities

This chapter describes bulk transmission system capabilities which give an indication of the extent

to which the system can accommodate the circumstances outside the chosen likely best view

planned transfers. It also provides an appreciation of opportunities available in the transmission

system to accommodate new generation and demand in across the system.

h) Capital delivery

The chapter summarizes the on-going and planned power projects to meet the future demands and

performance standards. These projects have been categorized and explicitly identify the needs and


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2.0 Network Development Strategy

TRANSCO has over the years developed a modern and reliable transmission system making use of

best available technology to provide a high degree of energy security. TRANSCO aims to continue

to develop, operate and maintain a safe, flexible, accessible, robust, reliable, and efficient

transmission system that meets the needs of its customers in a manner consistent with its License

obligations. This is to be achieved through a structured asset management process that takes

cognizance of best practice asset management principles for the development and stewardship ofthe transmission network and requirements for capital assurance governance.

TRANSCOs power network development strategy for the period to 2030 provides a long-term

vision for taking the transmission system forward and provides direction to the 7YPS and its

associated investment plans. The strategy places much greater emphasis on the trends and drivers

which provides a long-term vision for taking the transmission system forward consistent with

Governments 2030 vision. The 7YPS describes more detailed short to medium-term plans for the


2018.

2.1 Challenges

Over the period to 2030 the development of the transmission system will face many challenges.

High levels of projected future demand growth along with changing customer and social needs that

influence the location and timing of demand development will require greater participation and

active engagement with customers. Meanwhile, there are uncertainties in the future primary

generation energy mix and associated demand-generation backgrounds. There is a need to manage

these uncertainties and reduce the risk in making investment decisions, while limiting if not

avoiding congestion on the transmission system. Efforts to mitigate the effects of global climate

change combined with a shortage of domestic gas will encourage promoting low-carbon and


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operation and maintenance. All these require greater understanding and managing the technical

challenges, and thereby create opportunities for integrating new technologies, operation and

maintenance practices that are now available particularly in primary transmission equipment, and

information and communication technology.

2.2 Objectives

TRANSCO has two options to meet these challenges and fulfill the expectations of stakeholders. It

could either continue the development of the transmission network as is or adopt fresh thinking

and innovation. This requires a shared vision and strategic implementation plan to ensure the

aspirations of all stakeholders in the transmission system are met. The strategic plan presented in

this report adopts a holistic approach to the development and stewardship of the transmission

system with the aim of building sufficient flexibility and robustness into its future system

architecture to accommodate uncertainties.

The long-term network development strategy for the period to 2030 (20 years) aims to provide an

optimized vision for taking the transmission system forward that takes into account the

government objectives and policies, particularly those associated with the United Arab Emirates

(UAE) future social, environmental and economic requirements. The Abu Dhabi Economic Vision

2030 envisaged a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) average target growth rate of about 6.4%

per annum for the period 2010-2030. The Abu Dhabi Urban Planning Council (UPC) developed

the Plan Abu Dhabi 2030-Urban Structure Framework Plan calibrated to achieve the target

population growth rate at about 4.8% for the period 2010-2030. The electricity transmission

infrastructure continues to be developed consistent with the above set policy targets among others

to support the future economic development of the Abu Dhabi Emirate.

The adopted transmission network development strategy along with the application of relevant

novel technologies will ensure achieving the following objectives:


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Secure the domestic energy supplies to minimize vulnerabilities associated with unplanneddomestic system disruptions, import disruptions, and other crises.

Provide accessibility in granting connection access to all network users and benefits tocustomers at the earliest opportunity, particularly for renewable power sources and high

efficiency local generation with zero or low carbon emissions.

Reliable in assuring and improving the security of supply standards, transmission code andquality of supply to accommodate the customer requirements having different technical

characteristics.

Economical by providing the best value through innovation and efficient energy managementwhile supporting economic competitiveness and diversification by facilitating supply of

reasonably priced energy and tariff regulations.

Facilitate implementation of Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Authority (ADWEA) DemandSide Management (DSM) program. This program presents policies, means and techniques to

achieve a scale of possible reduction of electricity demand keeping high standards of living and

customer satisfaction.

Flexible in fulfilling the customers needs and broader spectrum of stakeholders whilstresponding to the changes and challenges ahead.

Environmentally friendly and safe. Protect the environment by facilitating renewable andalternative energy technologies, mitigating the negative effects of traditional energy

production, and achieving increased energy efficiency among consumers within the Emirate.

The target renewable energy share is set at 7% by 2020.

Reduce uncertainty and risk to investment decisions.

Ensure end of life renewal of assets for sustainable operation of the grid.

2 3 Principle Long-Term Drivers and Trends


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a) Electricity demand

Electricity is the critical enabler for the economic and social development of the UAE.Peak electricity demand (including supplies to Abu Dhabi Emirate and Northern Emirates) is

forecast to increase from 8.5GW (in 2010) to between 22.5GW-40.5GW by 2030 according to

ADWECs 2011 forecast update. Figure 2-1 shows the historical and future electricity demand

forecast up to 2030.

Figure 2-1 Historical and future electricity demand forecast

Source GDP data from Ministry of Economy Website (from 2001-2006) & Abu Dhabi EconomicVision 2030 (from 2006-2030). Demand data from ADWEC received in March 2011.

Th i i l d d d i i d t i l i g id ti l d i l

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Year

G D P - U

S $ b i l l i o n

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

P e a k

D e m a n

d ( G W )

Real GDP 38.5GW Scenario 22.5GW Scenario40.5GW Scenario 32.5GW Scenario

Real GDP Growth Rate

2000-2010: 11.4% (Actual)

2010-2030: 6.4%

ADWEC Demand Growth Rate

2000-2010: 9.8% (Actual)

2010-2030: 5% (for 22.5GW Scenario) 6.9% (for 32.5GW Scenario) 7.8% (for 38.5GW Scenario) 8.1% (for 40.5GW Scenario)


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b) Regional and international grid interconnections

To support the Government of Abu Dhabi initiative to bolster the domestic energy security,TRANSCOs transmission system will increasingly integrate with Emirates National Grid (ENG)

and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) transmission system. Figure 2-2 shows the simplified high-

level grid interconnection arrangement (existing and current plans) with ENG/GCC grids.

Figure 2-2 Simplified high-level grid interconnection arrangement with ENG/GCC grids.

Potential maximum transfers between TRANSCO and regional/international grids under Secured

Existing 400kV GridsCommitted 400kV Grids

Sweihan

Warsan

Dhaid

Ras Al Khaimah

Shuweihat

To Salwa 400kV Grid Station

(KSA)

Sharjah

Qidfa

Sila

Al Wasit Area(Sultanate of Oman)

Ajman

New FujairahCity

Taweela

New 400kV Tower (double circuit)

T R A N S C O

T r a n s

m i s s i o n

N e t w o

r k

i n

A b u D

h a b i E m i r

a t e

Foah

Existing 220kV Grids

Existing 220kV Tower (double circuit)

400kV OHL Tower (double circuit)

Generation Site


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170MW through the current existing Southern GCC 220kV interconnector between UAE-Oman. Maximum transfers are planned to be increased to about 1GW through the future

400kV interconnector between UAE-Oman.

2GW through the current existing ENG interconnections to Northern Emirates (i.e. through400kV interconnector between Taweela-Warsan, and 400kV interconnector between Fujairah

Qidfa-Sweihan) with possible range of exports.

These interconnections will not only enhance the security of supply but also reduce the spinning

reserve requirements and facilitate power exchange among member utilities and states, while

providing a mechanism to mitigate against gas supply shortages and uncertainty in the levels of

demand growth. It will also reduce plant procurement cost through achieving higher efficiency and

plant load factors apart from reducing the global operating costs of the integrated electricity

market.

c) Generation trends and energy storage

The production of electricity and the desalinated of water are dominated by large-scale operators

using conventional technologies such as gas turbines and thermal desalination. Figure 2-3 shows

the historical and future demand-generation trend upto 2030.

To support the Government objectives of achieving energy sufficiency, energy security, economic

diversification, and reduce the negative environmental impact of fossil fuel generation within the

Emirate, connection of essential new generation such as nuclear and renewable are planned which

have different technical characteristics to the current generation portfolio. Figure 2-4 shows the

existing and future potential generation site candidates and range of generation capacity assumed

at each of those sites.


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Figure 2-3 Demand-generation trends for the period 2000-2030

The target of the Governments objective is not to displace the existing or future fossil fuel plants,

but to supplement them with a diverse mix of technologies and fuel sources that make theelectricity sector less vulnerable to supply interruptions, market swings, and other crises while

creating the commercial impetus for the emergence of new technology-based clusters within the

local economy. This has required consideration of:

Committed new generation expansion projects.

ADWECs view on the future potential capacity and their potential site locations as outlined intheir 2011 Statement of Future Capacity Requirements.

Closures of some existing generating plants due to various legislation and age profile.

Policy drivers on renewable energy targets (objective is to drive towards establishing a 7%share of renewable energy by 2020) and demand side management initiatives

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Year

G W

Installed Gen Capacity (Existing) Committed Gen Capacity Proposed Gen Retirement 22.5GW Scenario

32.5GW Scenario 38.5GW Scenario 40.5GW Scenario


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Figure 2-4 Existing and future potential generation site candidates

d) Technological developments

Technologies such as higher rating overhead line conductors for increased power transfers,increased use of XLPE cables in areas of high amenity value at voltages up to 400kV, adoption of765kV or HVDC transmission voltage levels and the application of static and dynamic reactivepower compensators, while not necessarily all these new technologies require considerations in thetransmission system development.

Shuweihat

Umn Al Nar/SAS Al Nakheel

Masdar

Existing Fossil Fuel Power Plants

Future Potential Sites

Existing/Future Potential Renewables

Expected Retire

Gharbia (Western Region)1) Shuweihat (S1, S2) existing2) Shuweihat S3 - open cycle

3) Braka (NPP-1)4) North Braka (cogen/NPP)5) Mirfa (Combined/cogen)6) Madinat Zayed (Renewable)7) Sir Baniyas Island (Renewable)8) Sila (Renewable)

Eastern Region1) Taweela/TANE (Existing)2) Taweela-C (combined/cogen)3) SASN/UAN (Existing)4) UAN Re-development (open cycle)5) Masdar City (Renewable)

Northern Emirates1) Fujairah Qidfa (F1, F2) - Existing2) Fujairah F3 (cogen/open cycle)3) Ras Al Khaimah/Umn Al Quwain Border (cogen/NPP)4) Hamria (cogen/open cycle)

BrakaMirfa

Sir Baniyas Island

Madinat Zayed

North Braka

Fujairah Qidfa

Ras Al Khaimah

Taweela

SASN/UAN

Al-Ain Power Station

Sweihan

Sanaiya/Maziyad

Al-Ain Region1) Al-Ain P.S (Renewable)2) Sanaiya/Maziyad (Renewable)

3) Sweihan (Fossil fuel/Renewable)

Combination of generationsite candidates provides

~ 42.5GW capacity

Sila

40-100MW 50-200MW

100-700MW

0-500MW

0-700MW

100-350MW

0-350MW

4.65-6.75GW

1.65-2.43GW

4.89GW

0-5.6GW

5.6-11.2GW

2.97-4.27G

0-5.6GW

0-3.6GW

Hamria

0-3.3GW

0-1GW


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of smart meters in the selective areas of the distribution network within the Abu Dhabi Emirate

have been considered.

From a transmission perspective, the smart grid components could essentially include and integrate

synchrophasor measurement, intelligent protection schemes, power flow control, static var

compensation, real time monitoring, energy storage management and solar/wind forecasting tools,

advanced metering (AMR), demand response, energy storage devices, condition monitoring,

control and decision support systems. These requires massive changes in the electrical system and

the way it should be structured and operated, which has the potential to create a new system

architecture.

e) System operation and despatch

The generation mix and demand side technologies along with the changes expected in the loadduration curve due to high industrial demand growth and export requirements will required to be

considered. These are likely to alter the summer-winter peak demand ratio to about 40% and

system load factor to about 70% by 2020. The impact of these changes, particularly the need to

take into account the inter-relationship between power and water production, could lead to the

need to introduce other methods of water production such as reverse osmosis (RO) and

opportunities for energy storage. As a result the intermittency and non-despatchable plant

characteristics of wind and solar generation, and plans to despatch nuclear plant as base load

and/or introduce degree of flexibility in their operation needs to be considered.

f) Asset management

While the transmission network is comparatively young, there will be requirements for assets

approaching the end of their useful lives to be managed and replaced at an appropriate time. AssetManagement process improvements will be required to capture the knowledge to build only what

is needed. Integrated outage management and risk assessment need to be considered for improved

operational efficiency. Maintenance practices and resource management processes shall be

d d d i i l b i i h i i k f 20


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g) Standards and procedures

The evolution of bulk transmission network over the period to 2030 requires review of standardsand procedures related to the network operation and despatch that needs to address:

System complexity as the network develops to meet the demand requirements of 2030.

Operational connection topology to manage fault levels within acceptable limits.

Levels of security (infeed risk), power factor, reactive power management, stability including

fault ride through and frequency response, and spinning reserve issues. Power quality requirements of customers and sensitive loads.

2.4 Approach to Developing the Main Bulk Transmission System

The requirements for the transmission system development and its associated investments areprimarily driven by the demand and generation backgrounds and the resulting power transfers onthe transmission system. There are uncertainties associated with the demand and generationbackgrounds as with any forecasts and plans. These uncertainties will affect future planned powertransfers on the transmission system and hence the way the transmission system develops.

To manage the uncertainties, the approach adopted in this strategy is based on the scenario

analysis taking into account the sensitivities, constraints and risks through considering:

Different demand forecast scenarios in the range 22.5GW-40.5GW by 2030.

Considering different locational development of demand including different levels of transfersto the Northern Emirates.

Different locational development of generation to meet the above demands.

Using the scenarios developed, the planned power transfers on the transmission system are

established for various demand generation scenarios Given the differences in scenarios envelopes


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Figure 2-5 Representative example of most likely boundary transfers across West-East corridor

Figure 2-6 shows the envelope of possible transfers and the best-view planned transfers across the


2010-2030. It also shows the transfer capability (represented in blue text) across the identifiedboundary corridors for the peak demand-generation background in 2010.

Gharbia-Eastern Region boundary

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

M W


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Figure 2-6 Envelope of possible transfers and best-view planned transfers by 2030

Bulk transmission system options centred on 400kV, 765kV and HVDC technologies have been

explored to meet the system needs for the range of planned transfer requirements. Figure 2-7

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

B o u n d a r y

T r a n s

f e r s

( M W )

~8GW(~1.8GW)

~5GW(~2.2GW)

~3.5GW(~2GW)

~1.5GW(~3.2GW)

~2GW(~0.3GW)

Best-view planned transfers in 2030

Gharbia region

N o r t h e r

n E m i

r a t e s

Abu DhabiIslands

Eastern region

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

B o u n d a r y

T r a n s f e r s

( M W )

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

B o u n d a r y

T r a n s

f e r s

( M W )

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

B o u n d a r y

T r a n s

f e r s

( M W )

Transfer capability in 2010


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Figure 2-7 Main options for bulk transmission system development.

400kV is chosen as the most likely transmission system option to ensure that the investments are

economical and efficient and that those Users connecting to the system can reasonably identify and

evaluate opportunities. As there will continue to be a degree of uncertainty in the realization of the

volume, location and timing of demand and generation backgrounds in any given area, it is

proposed to continue monitor the developments of the market and update the scenarios

accordingly. Hence, the potential transmission reinforcement plans shall be established in a phased

manner and that the options are maintained at minimum cost to provide a least regret solution.

It should be noted that the 400kV transmission reinforcements associated with the 1 st and 2 nd Braka

nuclear units are able to exploit the synergies with the committed transmission network associated

with Shuweihat S3 generation integration. Migration to 765kVAC or HVDC as the main overlay

i i i h i i 400kV k h W E id i


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In developing the transmission system, considerations have also been given to the increasing

requirements for renewal of existing assets in the period to 2030.

2.5 Network Development Strategy

TRANSCOs network development strategy is to continue to develop a flexible, reliable, secure,

accessible, robust, economical, efficient, environmentally friendly and safe transmission system

that meets the needs of its customers in a manner consistent with its Licence obligations.

This is achieved through:

Implementing a structured asset management process that takes cognizance of best practiceasset management principles for the development and stewardship of the transmission network

and requirements for capital assurance governance.

Continuing with the development of 400kV main bulk transmission system. Given theuncertainty in the demand and generation background, the possible need to migrate to 765kV

or HVDC as the main overlay transmission system option across the West-East corridor is to

be kept under review, particularly if significant level of additional generation capacity beyond

Shuweihat S3 and Braka nuclear plant are contracted in the Western region, and that there is

increased requirement to provide power to Northern Emirates.

Incremental deployment and integration of new technologies and best available practice.

It is intended that the development of the transmission network will be done in such a manner to:

Have minimum negative side-effects on the environment and society.

Accommodate large central and decentralized generation and storage.

Enable active participation of consumers including demand response.

Provide high quality of supply and reliable power that satisfy the expectation and needs of thecustomer and comply with international best practice and standards.


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Figure 2-8 shows the expected 400kV transmission system configuration by 2030.

Figure 2-8 Expected 400kV transmission system configuration by 2030.

2025 Best View (30GW)

Al-AinSouth West

Dahma

Sweihan

Mussafah

Shahama

Warsan

Dhaid

Ras AlKhaimah

To Salwa 400kVGrid Station

(KSA)

Sharjah

SASN

Taweelah

Qidfa

Sila

ICAD

MahawiBahia

Al Wasit Area(Sultanate of Oman)Shamkha

Hameem

Al-Ain Airport

Ajman

New FujairahCity

MirfaWathba

SAS Al NakheelBeach

Al Qurm

ADST

ReemSadiyat

Bahia

ZayedSports City

Braka

400kV grid station

400kV Tower (double circuit)

400kV CableSingle Circuit

Single 400kVOverhead Line Circuit

400kV grid station associated with Power Plant

Madinat Zayed

Bab

ChemaWEyaat

Shuweihat

Ruwais


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3.0 Planning Principles

The Electricity Transmission System Security Standard, Issue 1, Rev (0) dated March 2005 sets

out the criteria and methodology, which TRANSCO shall use in the planning, development,

operation and maintenance of the electricity transmission system. The Electricity Transmission

Code (Ver.1, Rev.3, issued in September 2006) contains additional criteria and other aspects of

quality of supply standards that shall be considered for planning the transmission network. A

summary of the planning principles are discussed below;

3.1 General Criteria

The following general criteria are adopted for network planning and development;

Electricity transmission system shall be planned to comply with N-1 criteria.

400kV overhead line system feeding Abu Dhabi Island shall comply with N-2. Electrical and thermal ratings of the equipment shall NOT be exceeded.

Power system shall remain stable with respect to voltage and frequency control undernormal and secured outage conditions.

Power system shall be developed in an efficient and economical manner.

Acceptable safety standards shall be maintained.

Both the Electricity Transmission System Security of Supply Standard and the Electricity

Transmission Code are under review. However, for the purposes of this Seven Year Electricity

Planning Statement, 400kV overhead line circuits planned to be connected to Nuclear Power

Station shall meet N-Tower criteria (i.e. for tower failure).

3.2 Connection Conditions

TRANSCO and Users connected to the Transmission System (Gencos, Discos and Non-Embedded


40/85

connections, main interconnected transmission topology and demand connections shall satisfy the

deterministic criteria specified in the Security Standards.

Frequency Deviation

The System Frequency of the Transmission System shall be nominal 50Hz with System Frequency

set points between 49.95Hz 50.05Hz and shall be controlled within the limits of 49.9Hz

50.1Hz unless exceptional circumstances prevail.

Under transient disturbed conditions, System Frequency could rise to 53Hz or fall to 47Hz.

However, under disturbed steady-state conditions, System Frequency will NOT exceed 51.5Hz or

fall below 48.5Hz.

Voltage Variation

The voltage on the 400kV, 220kV and 132kV parts of the Transmission System at each

Connection Site with the User will normally remain within 5% of the nominal value. The

minimum voltage is -10% and the maximum voltage are +10%; but voltages between +5% and

+10% will not last longer than 15 minutes unless abnormal conditions prevail.

The voltage on the 33kV and 11kV parts of the Distribution System will normally remain within

6% of the nominal value unless abnormal conditions prevail.

Harmonic Distortion

The Compatibility/Planning Levels for harmonic distortion on the Transmission System from all

sources under both Planned Outage and fault outage conditions (unless abnormal conditions

prevail) shall comply with the levels shown in Appendix-F of the Electricity Transmission Code.

TRANSCO apply the Planning Levels to the connection of non-linear loads to the Transmission

System, which may result in harmonic emission limits being specified in the relevant ConnectionAgreement. The Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) for Planning and Compatibility Levels shall not

exceed the limits shown in the Table 3-1 below;

Table 3-1 Planning Levels for Total Harmonic Distortion


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Phase Unbalance

Under Planned Outage conditions, the maximum negative phase sequence component of the phase

voltage on the Transmission System should remain below 1% unless abnormal conditions prevail.

Voltage Fluctuations

Voltage fluctuations at a Point of Common Coupling (PCC) with a fluctuating Load directly

connected to the Transmission System shall NOT exceed;

1% of voltage level for step changes which may occur repetitively. Any large voltageexcursions other than step changes may be allowed up to 3% provided this does not

constitute a risk to the Transmission System or in TRANSCOs view to the System of any

User.

Flicker Severity (Short Term) of 0.8 Unit and a Flicker Severity (Long Term) of 0.6 Unit,as set out in IEC 61000-3-7 Standard.

Demand Power Factor

Demand power factor shall NOT be less than 0.91 lag at 33kV and 11kV connection points

between TRANSCO and Distribution Companies.

3.3 Generation Connection Criteria

The generation connections shall satisfy deterministic criteria comprising of the following;

a) Criteria which determine the maximum Normal and Infrequent Infeed Loss Risk for a set of

Secured Events .

For network design and planning purposes the level of these limits are 400MW and 800MW

respectively. These limits are currently under review and expected to be increased to take into

account the changes in the power network e.g. interconnection with ENG/GCC and Nuclear Plants.

The review will be undertaken after validating and updating the plants dynamic models (governor,

exciter, PSS models). The Normal Infeed Loss Risk limit aims to ensure that the system frequency


42/85

b) Criteria which determine Transmission Capacity require avoiding un-acceptable network

conditions for a set of Secured Events .

In either case, prior to any fault or Secured Events , the Transmission Capacity for the

connection to the Power Station should be planned such that the following conditions shall NOT

prevail;

Loss of Supply Capacity (valid only for the Secured Event of fault outage except aspermitted by the Demand Connection Criteria).

Primary equipment loading exceeding normal rating.

Voltage outside the pre-fault planning voltage limits or insufficient voltage performancemargins; or

System instability.

Secured Events could be a fault outage of a single transmission circuit or reactive element, outageof busbar section or outage of a single transmission circuit with planned outage of another

transmission circuit, a Generating Unit or reactive element.

3.4 Main Interconnected Transmission System (MITS) criteria

The Minimum Transmission Capacity requirements for the Main Interconnected Transmission

System (MITS) shall satisfy deterministic criteria and shall be planned such that prior to any fault

or Secured Events , the following conditions shall NOT prevail;

Loss of Supply Capacity (valid only for Secured Event of fault outage except as permitted bythe Demand Connection Criteria).

Primary equipment loading exceeding normal rating. Voltage outside the pre-fault planning voltage limits or insufficient voltage performance

margins; or

System instability.


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3.5 Demand Connection Criteria

The planning of demand connections (132/11kV substations or 220/33kV substations) to thetransmission system shall satisfy deterministic criteria and there should be NO loss of supply

capacity for the Group Demand following Secured Events as illustrated in Table 3-2.

Table 3-2 Planning supply capacity following Secured Events

Initial System ConditionsGroup Demand

(MW) Intact System With Single Arranged Outage

Over 150MWImmediately [1]

Group Demand

Immediately [1]

Maintenance Period Demand

27MW-150MWImmediately [1]

Group Demand

5 minutes [2]

Maintenance Period Demand

Up to 27MW Subject to Discos system security criteriaSubject to Discos system securitycriteria

Notes:

[1] Loss of supply not exceeding 5 minutes may be acceptable if leads to significant economies.

[2] For sites where economies prohibit the provision of a third Transmission Circuit, the

Maintenance Group Demand may be lost for the necessary time to restore outage.

Secured Events could be a fault outage of a single transmission circuit under Intact System; or

outage of a single transmission circuit with planned outage of another transmission circuit, a

Generating Unit or reactive element.

Maintenance Period is the period of the Year (November to April) during which maintenance oftransmission equipment is normally undertaken. Maintenance Period Demand is the demand level

experienced at a Demand Supply Point and is the maximum demand level expected during the

normal maintenance period. Unless better data is available, this should be 50% of the Group


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4.0 Demand-Generation Background

The Sector Law requires ADWEC to prepare a demand forecast and accordingly secure the future

generation capacity to meet the short and long-term requirements of the Sector. The requirement

for the transmission system development and its associated investments is primarily driven by the

demand and generation backgrounds. In this chapter, the demand-generation trends and the choice

of the key assumptions are summarized. Based on the electrical connectivity and geographical

dispersion, the capacity and demand forecast at each part of the transmission network are

highlighted.

4.1 Demand Background

In 2010 the total system peak demand recorded was about 8.5GW, which included supplies to theAbu Dhabi Emirate and the Northern Emirates. Historically, the electricity peak demand sustained

an average growth of 9.8% for the period 2000-2010. The average peak demand growth for the

Abu Dhabi Emirate was 7.8% for the same period. In 2006 TRANSCO established interconnection

with Emirates National Grid (ENG) with the intention of supporting the member utilities of the

UAE.

Global peak electricity demand (include supplies to Abu Dhabi Emirate and Northern Emirates) is

forecast to increase to between 16GW and 24GW by 2018 according to ADWECs 2011 forecast

update. This represents an average growth rate of about 9% and 16% per annum for the period

2010-2018 related to the two demand forecasts. For the purpose of preparing this 7YPS an

intermediate demand level of about 20GW by 2018 is also considered. This together with the

generation background described in the next Section is consistent with the best-view long-termtransfers established in the network development strategy.

In developing the demand forecast the updated Users demand forecast data demand notifications


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The principle demand drivers are industrial, residential and commercial development expansions;

and export supplies to Northern Emirates. The proportion of industrial demand relative to peak

demand is forecast to increase as the UAE diversifies its economy and there is the potential for

variations of the locational development of demand within the outlier demand scenario.

The 7YPS looks at 16GW, 20GW intermediate and 24GW demand scenarios. Attachment-A

include detailed summary and area-wise/zone-wise demand forecast for the 16GW, 20GW

intermediate and 24GW demand scenarios; expected capacity and peak demand forecast at the exitdemand supply points for the period 2010-2018.

Attachment-A includes summary of region-wise peak demand forecast for 16GW, 20GW

intermediate and 24GW demand scenario (Table-A1). Area-wise/zone-wise detailed demand

forecast for the three demand scenarios is included in Table A2. The expected capacity and peak

demand forecast at the exit demand supply points in Abu Dhabi Emirate for the period 2010-2018

for 16GW and 24GW demand scenario is included in Table-A3 and Table-A4 respectively.

For the 20GW intermediate scenario, the global peak electricity demand (Abu Dhabi Emirate and

Northern Emirates) is expected to reach about 20GW in 2018 representing an average growth rate

of about 13% for the period 2010-2018. Figure 4-1 shows the region-wise demand forecast for the

20GW intermediate scenario. Table 4-1 shows the detailed break-up of region-wise demand

forecast for the 20GW intermediate scenario.

The expected capacity and peak demand forecast at the exit demand supply points in Abu Dhabi

Emirate for the period 2010-2018 for 20GW demand scenario is included in the Attachment (refer

Table-A6).

The expected capacity and peak demand forecast at the 400kV grid supply points in Northern

Emirates for the period 2010-2018 for 20GW demand scenario is included in the Attachment (refer


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Figure 4-1 Region-wise demand forecast for 20GW intermediate scenario.

8,485

9,845

11,167

13,436

14,730

16,85117,582

18,783

20,046

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

P e a k

D e m a n

d ( M W )

Abu Dhabi Islands' Eastern Region

Gharbia (Western) Region Al-Ain RegionNorthern Emirates Incl. Water Pump & Aux. Loads Auxiliary & Desalination Process Loads in AD EmirateTransmission Losses Coincident Total System Peak

Growth Rate (2010-2018)

System (AD+NE) = 13.1%; Abu Dhabi Emirate = 11.9%

Abu Dhabi Islands' = 7.8%; Eastern Region = 15.7%

Gharbia Region = 24.4%; Al-Ain Region = 6.3%


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Table 4-1 Region-wise demand forecast for the 20GW intermediate scenario.

a) Demand developments in Northern Emirates

The supply requirements of the Northern Emirate are expected to exceed 2.5GW in the short-term

and could possibly reach about 5GW by 2018. Existing and on-going main bulk 400kV

transmission development works in Northern Emirates (in Fujairah, Ajman, Sharjah) will enablesecuring the above supplies and meet the rise in electricity demand in the regions. These

development works will not only contribute to the Abu Dhabis continued support to the energy

requirements of the Northern Emirates but also will improve the overall security of the ENG grid

d d th i k t th TRANSCO f h t d/ t k it i i th N th

1, 1, 1 2,0 2,23 2,3 2,4 2 2, 2, 3 3,031

1, 14 2,12 2, 4 2, 11 3,13 3, 4,1 4, 30 ,02

1,031 1,24 1, 10 2,2 2, 2, 40 2, 0 3,030

1, 4 1, 3 2,000 2,0 4 2,1 2 2,24 2,3 0 2,421 2, 22

, 0 , , , 4 , 11,4 4 12,041 12, 13, 11

0 0 0 1 40 40 0 1,0

, , , , 34 10, 1 12,3 4 12, 1 13, 14,

1,44 1, 00 2,100 3,324 3,420 3, 0 3, 4,23 4,4 0

2 0 2 2 323 33 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0

1, 1 1, 2,3 3, 4 3, 4,240 4,34 4, 4, 30

104 104 123 1 1 4 21 2 2 342 430

, , , , , , , , ,

( )

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)

& ( )

2) & . ( )

)

1)

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) ( )

1) ( )

1 ( )

2)

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4)


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b) Demand developments in Industrial Zones

Expansion of the oil and gas sector and their increasing reliance upon the utility grid for its

electricity requirements has directly attributed to the significant demand growth in the Gharbia

(Western) region. The growth of oil and gas sector has significant long-term macro-economic

impact on the economy of Abu Dhabi Emirate. The supply requirements of all Abu Dhabi National

Oil Company (ADNOC) group projects located in the Gharbia region is expected to exceed

2GW by 2018.

Development of heavy industrial zones is another important driver contributing to the significant

demand growth. These include developments of the Mussafah Steel Plant in Mussafah/ICAD-1

area, Industrial City of Abu Dhabi (ICAD) in ICAD area, Khalifa Port and Industrial Zone (KPIZ)

in the Taweela area, and ChemaWEyaats Chemical Industrial City in the RUWAIS area. The

supply requirements of these industrial zones and other light industries in Abu Dhabi Emirate are

expected to exceed 1.5GW by 2018.

For the TRANSCOs best-view planned transfers, the cumulative demand requirements of

ADNOC group projects, heavy and light industrial demand categories is expected to reach about

4.4GW which represents about 22% of the total electricity demand by 2018. The existing and on-

going transmission development works in RUWAIS, BAB, SHAH/ASAB, and ICAD among othersites is expected to secure the above supplies to meet the short and long-term requirements in the

respective regions.

c) Demand developments in Abu Dhabi Islands, Eastern and Al-Ain regions

New residential and commercial developments in Abu Dhabi islands and Eastern region; and

developments in Al-Ain region are expected to contribute to the cumulative electricity demand

growth of Abu Dhabi Emirate within next few years. The existing and planned transmission

development works are expected to secure the supplies in the above regions.


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The residential and commercial developments in Eastern region are concentrated in Yas island,

Raha Beach, Bahia, Mahawi, and Shamkha regions. For the TRANSCOs best-view planned

transfers, the cumulative demand requirement of Eastern region (excluding industrial demandcategory) is expected to reach about 2.8GW which represents about 14% of the total electricity

demand by 2018.

The developments in Al-Ain region are concentrated in Sweihan, Dahma, and Al-Ain South West

zones. For the TRANSCOs best-view planned transfers, the cumulative demand requirement of

Al-Ain region is expected to reach about 2.5GW which represents about 12.5% of the total

electricity demand by 2018.

4.2 Generation Background

The production of electricity and the desalinated water are dominated by the large-scale operators

using conventional technologies such as gas turbines and thermal desalination. To meet the above-

mentioned demand background, the existing power generation plants contribute about 12GW (as

on 2010) of capacity. The following are the major new committed generation projects identified to

date which are expected to be integrated into the main bulk transmission grid during the period

2011-2020:

Shuweihat S2 (~1.62GW) and Shuweihat S3 (~1.65GW) combined cycle fossil fuel plantslocated adjacent to the existing Shuweihat S1 site in the Al Gharbia region.

Shuweihat S2 is integrated to transmission network and operational in 2011.

The Braka site in the Gharbia region has been identified to promote nuclear generation of totalcapacity 5.6GW by 2020. Generator units of 1400MWe are expected to be integrated to the

transmission system.

A number of committed renewable generation projects have also been identified to date and these


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The above generation projects contribute an additional capacity of about 9.5GW by 2020, among

other potential new generation additions (e.g. relocation of Al Zawra gas turbines to Mirfa site,

Masdar hydrogen plant at Shuweihat).

To satisfy the emerging gap between the demand and generation outlook, and ensure sufficient

generation margin is available from 2013, following assumptions have been considered in line

with the 2011 ADWEC Statement of Future Capacity Requirements:

Procuring IWPP peak capacity in excess of PWPA contracted capacity to the extent of about200MW for the period 2013-2016.

Availability of FEWA reserve stand-by capacity to the extent of about 700MW for the period2013-2016.

It should be recognized that the actual commitment to the new conventional generation capacity

takes place on a shorter time scale (about 4 years) to close the emerging gap. Figure 4-2 shows the

demand-generation background for the period 2010-2018. Attachment-A (Table-A8) includes the

detailed summary of generation capacity expansion plan assumed for the TRANSCOs best-view

planned transfers for the period 2010-2018.

10

15

20

25

30

G W

Installed Gen Capacity (Existing) Committed Gen Capacity 22.5GW Scenario (16GW by 2018)

32.5GW Sce nario (18. 5GW by 2018) 20GW Intermediate Scena rio (20GW by 2018) 38.5GW Scenario (24GW by 2018)

Global demand growth rate (2010-2018)



20GW Intermediate scenario = 13.1%



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5.0 Planned Transfers

The requirements for the transmission system development and its associated investments are

primarily driven by the demand and generation backgrounds and the resulting power transfers on

the transmission system. There are uncertainties associated with the demand and generation

backgrounds as with any forecasts and plans. These uncertainties will affect future planned power

transfers on the transmission system and hence the way the transmission system develops. Using

the scenarios developed, the planned power transfers on the transmission system are established

for the most probable demand-generation scenarios envisaged during the period 2010-2018 and

ensure consistency with the long-term approach. Envelopes of possible transfers are established

and the most likely (best-view) planned power transfers are identified across each of the

transmission corridors that is used as a basis to inform how best to develop the transmission

system. The approach adopted in the 7YPS in establishing the envelope of possible transfers and

planned transfers taking into account the following considerations:

Different demand forecast scenarios namely 22.5GW scenario (i.e. 16GW by 2018),intermediate scenario (i.e. 20GW by 2018) and 38.5GW scenario (i.e. 24GW by 2018).

Different locational development of next possible generation (Mirfa, Taweela-C, Hamria) tomeet the above demands from 2014/2015 through to 2018 after Shuweihat S3 generation.

Figure 5-1 shows the envelope of possible transfers and the best-view planned transfers across the


2010-2018. It also shows the transfer capability (represented in blue text) across the identified

boundary corridors for the peak demand-generation background in 2010.

The main features of the fan diagrams across the five identified boundary corridors are:

a) The transfers across the Gharbia-Eastern region corridor are the sum of the transfers from theGharbia region to the Eastern region and from the Gharbia region to Al-Ain region. During the


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Figure 5-1 Envelope of possible transfers and best-view planned transfers for period 2010-2018

b) The transfers across the Northern Emirates-other regions corridor are the sum of the transfers

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

B o u n d a r y

T r a n s

f e r s

( M W )

-2,000

-1,000

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6,000

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A l - A i n

r e g i o

n

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e r n E m

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0

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2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

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f e r s

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0

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0

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c) The transfers across the Eastern region-other regions include transfers from the Eastern regionto Abu Dhabi Islands, plus Eastern region to Al-Ain region, minus Gharbia region to Eastern

region, minus Northern Emirates to Eastern region. During the period 2010-2018, the most

likely demand in the Eastern region is expected to increase from 2.5GW to about 6GW. The

scheduled generation in the region is assumed to rise significantly from 5GW to about 8GW.

Consequently, the best-view planned transfer across this boundary is expected to increase to

2GW in 2018.

d) The transfers

Documents

Seven Year Electricity Planning Statement-Main-report (1)