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Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates * Ceyhun Elgin Bogazici University O˘guz ¨ Oztunalı Bogazici University Abstract In this paper, relying on a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model, we propose and then use a new methodology to construct a novel shadow economy dataset. We calibrate our model to match various reported macroeconomic variables and then back out the size of the shadow economy from the calibrated model. This allows us to construct an unbalanced 161-country panel dataset over the period 1950 and 2009. This aims to be the largest dataset in the literature, particularly with its time-series dimension. We also present certain features of the data along with various descriptive statistics. JEL codes:. E26, H26, O17, O41. Keywords: shadow economy; informal sector; two-sector dynamic general equi- librium models; panel data. * We thank Friedrich Schneider for helpful comments and suggestions. Address: Bogazici University, Department of Economics, Natuk Birkan Building, 34342 Bebek, Istanbul, (Turkey). e-mail: [email protected]. Address: Bogazici University, Department of Economics, Natuk Birkan Building, 34342 Bebek, Istanbul, (Turkey). e-mail: [email protected]. 1

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Page 1: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow Economies around the World: Model

Based Estimates∗

Ceyhun Elgin†

Bogazici University

Oguz Oztunalı‡

Bogazici University

Abstract

In this paper, relying on a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model, we propose and

then use a new methodology to construct a novel shadow economy dataset. We calibrate

our model to match various reported macroeconomic variables and then back out the

size of the shadow economy from the calibrated model. This allows us to construct an

unbalanced 161-country panel dataset over the period 1950 and 2009. This aims to be

the largest dataset in the literature, particularly with its time-series dimension. We also

present certain features of the data along with various descriptive statistics.

JEL codes:. E26, H26, O17, O41.

Keywords: shadow economy; informal sector; two-sector dynamic general equi-

librium models; panel data.

∗We thank Friedrich Schneider for helpful comments and suggestions.†Address: Bogazici University, Department of Economics, Natuk Birkan Building, 34342 Bebek, Istanbul,

(Turkey). e-mail: [email protected].‡Address: Bogazici University, Department of Economics, Natuk Birkan Building, 34342 Bebek, Istanbul,

(Turkey). e-mail: [email protected].

1

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1 Introduction

Shadow economy, sometimes also titled informal, hidden, black, parallel, sec-ond or underground economy (or sector) is defined by Hart (2008) as a setof economic activities that takes place outside the framework of bureaucraticpublic and private sector establishments. Another paper by Ihrig and Moe(2004) defines it as a sector which produces legal goods, but does not com-ply with government regulations. Additionally, Frey and Pommerehne (1984),Loayza (1996), Johnson, Kaufmann and Shleifer (1997), Johnson, Kaufmannand Zoido-Lobaton (1998a, 1998b), Thomas (1999), Fleming, Roman and Far-rell (2000) Schneider and Enste (2000, 2002), Dell’Anno and Schneider (2004),Schneider (2005) provide or use similar definitions and descriptions among manyothers.

Even though informality is a widespread phenomenon and poses serious so-cial, economic, cultural and political challenges across the world, many issuesabout its nature and consequences still remain largely under-explored or un-resolved. For example, the evidence presented in the existing literature, hasfailed to generate a consensus around the measurement of the informal sectoramong researchers. There are also many other open questions regarding thedeterminants and/or effects of informality including even such basic ones suchas whether informal sector size would be larger in low income or high incomenations (see Dreher and Schneider, 2010); whether taxes are positively corre-lated with informal sector size or not (See Schneider and Enste, 2000, Friedmanet. al. 2000, Elgin, 2010 among many others.) or whether shadow economyand corruption are substitutes or complements (Dreher and Schneider, 2010).

Still, there is a significant amount of empirical research that looks into thecauses and effects of the shadow economy. The existing studies typically con-sider variables like income per capita (or worker), unemployment, tax burden,government spending, regulatory costs, openness to international trade, andvarious other institutional and cultural characteristics as possible determinantsof the shadow economy (see Johnson et. al 1997, 1998; Friedman et al. 2000;Torgler and Schneider, 2007; Elgin, 2010 and much more recently Elgin andSolis-Garcia, 2011 among many others.) Frequently used institutional factorsinclude corruption levels, quality of the bureaucratic establishment, law andorder enforced by the government. Common cultural and social factors, in-cluded in empirical studies are tax morale, religious factors, trust, ethnic unityor polarization. Surely, whether certain factors affect informal sector size or

2

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not depends on the group of countries and periods being made subjected toempirical analysis.

There are also many studies in the existing literature that explore effectsof the shadow economy. By these studies, presence of the shadow economyaffects both the level and the cyclicality of fiscal policy (Cicek and Elgin, 2011);provision of social security, labor force participation behavior (Schneider andEnste, 2000); income distribution (Hatipoglu and Ozbek, 2011); magnitudeof business cycles (Elgin, 2012); monetary base (Tanzi,1983) and total factorproductivity.(D’Erasmo and Moscoso Boedo, 2012)

As the number of papers in the growing literature on informality indicates,there is an increasing attention on the economic analysis of the shadow econ-omy. However, one particular setback which, despite the development of variousmethods, still persists in the literature is the lack of significantly large datasetsthat would make informality subject to robust (applied) policy analysis. Eventhough, there are various methodologies suggested for its measurement, thisissue mostly arises due to the fact that the size of the shadow economy, bydefinition, is hard to measure and make it subject to empirical analysis. Mostof the suggested methodologies (See the next section for a longer review.) areusually used for a particular country or even a region and could not be general-ized to cross-country panel frameworks. One particular exception is the datasetpresented by Schneider, Buehn and Montenegro (2010) which reports shadoweconomy size (as % of GDP) for 162 countries in an annual basis for the 9 yearsbetween 1999 and 2007. In this study, the authors rely on the MIMIC (MultipleIndicators and Multiple Causes) approach to estimate the size of the shadoweconomy, which according the Breusch (2005) is largely unfit for the purpose.

In this paper, contributing to this literature, we aim to address two issues:First, using a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium we present a new approachto estimate the size of the shadow economy. We believe that this approach hasvarious advantages over the existing methodologies. Second, we use this newmethodology to construct a new unbalanced 161-country panel dataset over theperiod 1950 and 2009. This aims to be the largest dataset in the literature,particularly with its time-series dimension. Among many possible advantagesregarding its use, the construction of such a dataset would allow for variouspolicy analysis that require a significantly large time dimension.

The rest of the paper is organized as follows: In the next section, we pro-vide a short review of the existing methodologies used to estimate the size ofthe shadow economy economy. Then in the third section, we describe a new

3

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methodology to construct shadow economy estimates. Next, in section four,we apply this methodology to obtain shadow economy size estimates in a panelof 161 countries. In section five, we make some robustness checks to establishrobustness of our estimates. Finally, in the last section we provide concludingremarks.

2 Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy

2.1 Existing Methodologies

As mentioned above, by its definition estimating the size of the shadow economyis difficult and daunting. Nevertheless, various approaches and methodologieshave been suggested and to some extent used in the literature to come up withestimates. Schneider (2005) and more recently Orsi, Raggi and Turino (2012)provide an excellent survey and comparison of different ways of estimating theshadow economy size. We critically review these below, however we refer thereader to these two papers for a longer survey of these approaches.

Schneider (2005) classifies shadow economy estimation methods under threecategories. They differ in various dimensions but they are all based on the useseveral different econometric estimation methods. These are direct approaches,indirect approaches and the MIMIC approach, respectively.

2.1.1 Direct Approaches

Direct approaches are generally based on the use of surveys, questionnaires, in-terviews and tax auditions of firms and/or households, the results of which arethen used to constructs estimates of shadow economy size employing microeco-nomic or microeconometric methods. (See Schneider, 2005 for a list of papersusing these approaches.) Difficulties regarding the sample choice, possible exis-tence of a selection bias, measurement errors regarding interviews and surveysare among the disadvantages of these approaches. Moreover, these approachesare mostly used at some specific point in time and it is usually very difficult tocreate a time dimension and therefore a time-varying estimate of the shadoweconomy size.

4

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2.1.2 Indirect Approaches

Methods under this category usually try to obtain estimates exploiting variousdifferent macroeconomic relationships under certain assumptions. Estimatescan be obtained for example from differences between i) national income andexpenditures, ii) official and actual labor force participation, iii) transactionsand national income, iv) electricity consumption and GDP. Yet another heavilyused method is the currency demand approach which is based on the use of acurrency demand function to estimate the size of the shadow economy.1

These methods are generally criticized for being based on various simplifyingand limiting assumptions. Moreover, they generally focus on one specific aspector indicator of the shadow economy and neglect many others. (See Schneider,2005 for a more extensive review and critic of these approaches.)

2.1.3 MIMIC Approach

This approach builds upon the works of Frey and Weck-Hannemann (1983) andis essentially based on the use of a specific structural equation model, titledthe MIMIC approach.2 This approach treats the size of the shadow economyas an unobserved latent variable and essentially consists of two steps: In thefirst step, one determines the causes and the indicators of the shadow economy.Then in the second step, given the causes and the indicators and the specifiedrelationship among them through the unobserved latent variable, one runs astructural equation model to estimate the coefficients of the causes and theindicators. However, similar to the methods outlined above, this approach isbased on the use of ad-hoc econometric specifications thereby making it subjectto statistical errors. Moreover, another shortcoming of this approach is thatit does not rely on any micro-foundations. Breusch (2005) is one of the heavycritics of using the MIMIC approach for this purpose.

2.2 Towards A New Approach

Currently used approaches aiming to estimate the size of the shadow economymight be criticized from three different points of view. First, all these methodsare based ad-hoc econometric specifications and assumptions. Second, heavy

1See Feige (1979), Tanzi (1983), Kaufman and Kaliberda (1996), Johnson Kaufman and Zoido-Lobaton(1998a) Thomas (1999) for different applications and comparison of these different methods.

2There is also a dynamic version of the MIMIC model which does not differ from the static model in anessential way.

5

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use of econometric estimations make them prone to measurement errors. Fi-nally, even though they specify various macroeconomic variables in their econo-metric specifications, they don’t have any microeconomic foundations whichmakes them open to the Lucas Critique. (See Lucas, 1976.)

To overcome these shortcomings, in this paper we propose and then use anew methodology to estimate size of the shadow economy. We present anddescribe this in the next section.

3 Constructing a New Shadow Economy Dataset

3.1 Procedure

As shortly outlined above the main motivation in constructing a new method-ology is to form a new approach which relies on microfoundations and which isnot based on ad-hoc econometric specifications and assumptions. To this end,we will rely on a two-sector (official and the shadow economies) dynamic generalequilibrium model. In what follows, we will first solve this model and charac-terize it in the steady state. Then we will calibrate the model’s key parametersto match various observables in the data and finally we’ll use the model to backout the unobservable size of the shadow economy. As the observables we plugin to the model vary over time for every country, we will have both time-seriesand cross-sectional variation in the size of the shadow economy.

3.2 Methodology

We will rely on a simple deterministic dynamic general equilibrium model3

which is mostly adapted from Roca, Moreno and Sanchez (2001), Ihrig andMoe (2004), and Busato and Chiarini (2004).

In our model environment, there is an infinitely-lived representative house-hold endowed with K0 units of productive capital and a total of Ht > 0 unitsof time. The household has access to two productive technologies, denoted for-mal and shadow, and maximizes its lifetime utility by solving the the following

3Since we want to run the model for as many countries as possible, as opposed to Busato and Chiarini (2004)or Orsi, Raggi and Turino (2012), we do not introduce uncertainty, as this would require more observables tocalibrate the model.

6

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program:

max{Ct,Xt,NSt,NFt}∞t=0

∞∑t=0

βtU(Ct)

s.t. Ct +Xt = (1− τt)θFtKαt N

1−αFt + θStN

γSt (1)

Kt+1 = Xt + (1− δ)Kt (2)

NSt +NFt = Ht. (3)

In the program above, β < 1 is a discount factor. We assume that theinstantaneous utility function U(·) is strictly increasing and strictly concave.Equation (1) is the household’s resource feasibility constraint: The amount ofconsumption Ct and investment Xt should equal the amount produced usingthe formal and informal technologies.

The right-hand side of equation (1) shows that the formal technology followsa standard Cobb-Douglas specification, where θFt is the level of productivityexclusive to the formal sector, Kt is the household’s capital stock, and NFt

is the amount of hours the household devotes to the formal technology. Inaddition, formal output gets taxed at a rate τt ∈ [0, 1].

The shadow economy technology depends on labor input only and has formθStN

γSt, where θFt is the level of productivity exclusive to the informal technology

and NSt is the amount of time that the household devotes to the informaltechnology. At a cost of zero, the household can attempt to hide the incomereceived from the informal technology. The government cannot enforce paymentof taxes on informal output.

The rest of the household’s problem is standard: Equation (2) is the house-hold’s law of motion for capital, where δ ∈ [0, 1] is a depreciation rate. Equation(3) is the household’s time constraint.

In this simple model, we assume that the government’s policy τt is exoge-nously determined and the tax revenue is used to finance an exogenous streamof government spending Gt. An equilibrium is easy to define:

Definition 1. Given the government policy variable tax burden {τ}, a competi-tive equilibrium of the two-sector model is a set of sequences {Ct, Xt, Kt+1, NSt, NFt, Gt}∞t=0

such that

1. The household’s problem is solved by {Ct, Xt, Kt+1, NSt, NFt}∞t=0.

2. Gt equals τtθFtKαt N

1−αFt .

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3.3 Solving the model

Assuming logarithmic utility of consumption, household’s maximization prob-lem yields the following first order conditions:

Ct+1

Ct= β[(1− τt)α

YFt+1

Kt+1+ 1− δ] (4)

,where YFt = θFtKαt N

1−αFt and

θStγNγ−1St = (1− τt)θFt(1− α)Kα

t N−αFt . (5)

By rearranging the Euler equation (4), one can obtain Kt in terms of NFt:

Kt = NFt

[(1− τt)θFtα

(1 + gc)/β − 1 + δ

] 11−α

. (6)

where gc is the growth rate of consumption in period t, i.e. 1 + gc = CtCt−1

Moreover, informal labor can be obtained now using (5) as follows:

NSt =

{γθSt

(1− τ)(1− α)θFt

[(1 + gc)/β − 1 + δ

α(1− τt)θFt

] α1−α} 1

1−γ

(7)

Given the characterization of the model, we now can turn to the calibrationand how we back out the size of the shadow economy using the model.

3.4 Calibration and Data Construction

Our ultimate purpose in this section is to back out time-varying estimates ofthe size of the shadow economy as % of official GDP in every country for any

year t. In our model’s terms, that is given byθStN

γSt

θFtKαt N

1−αFt

.

To back out the shadow economy size in a specific country for a specific yeart we proceed as follows:

First, as standard in the real business cycle literature we assume that α =0.36, δ = 0.08. Moreover, we take γ = 0.425 following Ihrig and Moe (2004).Next, we construct the capital stock series {Kt} relying on the widely used

8

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perpetual inventory method.4

Once the capital stock series is constructed we can calibrate β for everycountry using the Euler equation (4). Here we obtain the aggregate consumptiondata Ct from PWT.

Moreover, we obtain (formal) employment (NFt) from PWT as well. Finally,as we assume a balanced budget for the government τt is obtained as the shareof government spending in GDP similarly from the same source.

Next, using the specified values for α and δ, the calibrated value of β andyear specific τt, NFt and Kt, we use the equation (6) to back out θFt for anyyear t.

Now, the only thing remains to be calculated is θSt. Here we assume thatθSt grows at a rate which is the average of the growth rate of Kt and θFt.

5

Having made this assumption regarding the growth rate of θSt, we choose θS2007

to match the shadow economy size in 2007 of the series reported in Schneider et.al. (2010) and construct the rest of the θSt series using the calculated growthrates.

Finally, we calculate NSt using (7). Once NSt is obtained, the size of the

shadow economy in a specific year can easily be computed usingθStN

γSt

θFtKαN1−α

Ft

forevery year.

4 Results

Our procedure allows us to have a dataset with 7395 observations for 161 coun-tries6 in an unbalanced panel framework running from 1950 to 2009. The com-

4We obtain the capital-stock using the following formulae:

Kt+1 = Kt(1− δ) + It

K1950

Y1950=

∑2009i=1950

IiYi

δ + gY

The first equation is the standard law of motion for capital, where Kt stands for the aggregate capital stock inyear t, δ for the depreciation rate of physical capital, and It for the amount of investment in year t. Here weset δ = 0.08 and obtain the data on investment from Penn World Tables 7.0 (PWT). The second equation isbased on the assumption that the economy is at the steady state in the initial period of analysis which we takeas 1950 here. Once the capital stock in 1950 is calculated using the second equation, the first equation allowsus to create a capital stock series for the years between 1950 and 2009.

5Notice that the shadow economy production function is only a function of the productivity parameter θSand labor NS . This does not necessarily mean that the shadow economy doesn’t employ capital in production asone can interpret the function so that a fixed amount of capital is incorporated in θSt . Therefore, the assumptionwe make regarding the growth of θSt is not unrealistic.

6The country list is provided in the appendix. The only country we exclude from Schneider, Buehn andMontenegro (2010) is Myanmar.

9

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Table 1: Unweighted Shadow Economy Size

Region Mean Median Minimum Maximum Std. Dev.

OECD-EU 23.53 21.06 8.07 72.08 11.34Latin 45.47 44.33 22.64 74.30 12.79Post-Socialist 34.94 33.95 14.15 80.33 12.08MENA 29.01 27.80 15.09 63.12 11.36Sub-saharan 43.92 41.70 21.85 78.41 10.48Asia 38.40 37.65 10.65 78.09 14.76World 36.54 35.91 8.07 80.33 14.78

plete dataset is reported in a country by country and year by year basis inthe appendix. Nevertheless, we report various descriptive statistics and presentillustrative figures in this section.

Table 2: GDP-weighted Shadow Economy Size

Region Mean Median Minimum Maximum Std. Dev.

OECD-EU 20.38 19.65 16.02 25.66 2.99Latin 43.27 40.56 35.19 56.78 5.75Post-Socialist 35.64 32.28 26.20 55.67 8.58MENA 28.89 23.65 19.30 60.89 10.29Sub-saharan 42.94 41.62 34.10 51.97 4.69Asia 38.47 37.24 20.82 65.56 13.32World 27.88 28.14 21.59 36.09 3.91

The first thing we notice is that the 1999-2007 part of our dataset has a cor-relation of 0.987 with the shadow economy data reported by Schneider, Buehnand Montenegro (2010).

Next, in order to observe the variation of the shadow economy size in differ-ent group of countries over time, we divided the world into 6 different groups.These are OECD-EU, Latin American and Caribbean, Post-Socialist (Transi-tion), Middle East and North African, Sub-Saharan African and Asia-Oceaniacountries.7 We also report descriptive statistics for the whole dataset (denotedby the row titled World) as well.

In Table 1, we report the descriptive statistics of the shadow economy sizein these 6 different groups of countries. These group statistics in Table 1 areunweighted, that is we simply treated every country in a specific group equal.

7See the Appendix for the countries included in specific groups.

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These are group statistics for the 1950-2009 period, except for Post-Socialistcountries in which case the period covered is 1990-2009.

Table 3: Regional Trends (GDP-Weighted Data)

Region 1960-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2009

OECD-EU 22.92 20.26 18.92 17.81 16.53Latin 47.43 41.88 40.02 39.09 36.28Post-Socialist - - - 31.56 31.55MENA 33.77 24.58 22.89 22.35 21.06Sub-saharan 50.36 44.58 40.40 39.81 36.16Asia 42.92 37.63 33.08 26.16 26.45World 31.51 28.571 25.70 23.99 23.95

Figure 1: Shadow Economy Over Time: Unweighted Regional Averages

As looking at unweighted series might be a misleading way of calculating theshadow economy size in a group, in Table 2 we report the descriptive statistics

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of weighted series in different groups of countries.8 Investigating Tables 1 and2 indicate a couple of crucial points: First, as ceteris paribus, richer countriestend to have a smaller shadow economy (tough the relationship is not totallylinear) once we weight the shadow economy size with GDP, the world averageis significantly reduced. Second, judging from the standard deviations, the sizeof the shadow economy experienced a significant variation both across groupsand within groups. Third, Latin American and Sub-saharan economies do havesignificantly larger shadow economies than the other group of countries wherethe OECD-EU group does have a significantly smaller shadow economy size.Post-socialist transition economies also have a significant shadow economy size.

Figure 2: Shadow Economy Over Time: GDP-weighted Regional Averages

Next, in Table 3, we report the evolution of the shadow economy size indifferent groups over time in approximately 10-year intervals. In line with Table

8We calculated the weighted series for a group using the following formula:∑N

i=1 SiYi∑Ni=1 Yi

, where Si is the size

of the shadow economy (as % GDP) Yi is the GDP in the country i, and N is the number of countries in thegroup.

12

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3, Figures 1 and 2 present unweighted and GDP-weighted shadow economysize in an annual basis. For almost all country groups (except for the Post-Socialist one) we observe a declining trend over time. However, the pace of thereduction seems to loose some momentum in the last decade. Also, somewhatmore interestingly we observe a spike starting in 2007 for the OECD-EU group.Considering the emergence of the global economic crisis especially shaking thedeveloped economies, this could give further support for the hypothesis that thesize of the shadow economy is countercyclical as suggested by Roca, Moreno andSanchez (2001) and Elgin (2012).

Figure 3: Shadow Economy in a Cross-Section

As mentioned above, richer countries tend to have a smaller shadow economysize. We illustrate this in Figure 3, where we plot shadow economy size as % ofGDP vs. GDP per-capita. Here we plot average values for every country from1950 to 2009.

Even though Figure 3 suggest the existence of a highly negative (and lin-ear) relationship between GDP per-capita and shadow economy size in a cross-section, there is also evidence leading us to suspect that this relationship might

13

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Figure 4: Evolution of the Shadow Economy in Different Income Groups

be non-linear. In Figure 4, we aim illustrate this. Here, we group countrieswith respect to the GDP per-capita and then report the average GDP-weightedshadow economy size in each group for every year from 1960 to 2009. To dothis, we divide the countries into five categories: poorest, second, third, fourthand the richest 20 %. Not surprisingly, richer countries tend to have a smallershadow economy; however what Figure 3 shows that this relationship mightnot be exactly linear, especially in the process of development. Even tough,further research is required on this, this might be considered as a support forinformality dimension of the Kuznets Curve hypothesis.

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5 Robustness Checks

In this section we present several robustness checks of the methodology wepropose to construct shadow economy estimates.

5.1 Tax Burden vs. Government Spending

Table 4: Tax Burden vs. Government Spending: 1960-2009

With Taxes Region Mean Median Minimum Maximum Std. Dev.

OECD-EU 22.80 21.02 8.76 72.11 10.47Latin 45.07 43.01 22.65 72.14 12.63Asia 38.10 36.97 10.69 79.12 14.03

With Gov. Sp. Region Mean Median Minimum Maximum Std. Dev.

OECD-EU 22.20 20.09 8.07 72.08 10.17Latin 44.09 42.71 22.64 71.79 12.31Asia 37.26 36.79 10.65 78.09 13.96

One potential criticism of the simple methodology we propose could be thespecific balanced budget assumption we make for the government. Specifically,we assumed that for any government revenues equal spending. This allowed usto use share of government spending as a proxy for the level of tax burden in acountry. We made this simplifying assumption to construct the largest datasetpossible, as data for government spending is available in PWT for a very largenumber of countries whereas tax burden data (for example from GovernmentFinance Statistics of the IMF or from World Development Indicators) is muchmore limited. Nevertheless, in one of the robustness checks, instead of usinggovernment spending share from PWT as the measure τt, we directly obtain thetax burden (tax revenue as % of GDP). In that case we can only construct datafor 98 countries and lose data for most of the subsaharan and post-socialisttransition economies. Moreover, the time-series dimension of our dataset isnow reduced to the period from 1960 to 2009. We present descriptive statisticsfor this exercise (for unweighted data) in Table 4. Observe that there is nosignificant difference between two panels in the table. Moreover, we should alsomention that the correlation between unweighted shadow economy series is 0.92for the OECD-EU group, 0.84 for Latin American and Caribbean economies and0.90 for Asian-Australian countries.

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5.2 Sensitivity Analysis

Remember that In the data construction stage of the benchmark case we haveassumed that γ = 0.425, δ = 0.08 and α = 0.36. In this subsection we will firstrelax these three assumptions one-by-one and present descriptive statistics forunweighted data.

Table 5: Descriptive Statistics with Different γ

γ = 0.35 Region Mean Median Minimum Maximum Std. Dev.

OECD-EU 23.61 21.10 8.12 72.18 11.25Latin 45.50 44.35 22.67 74.38 12.76Post-Socialist 34.94 33.98 14.16 80.35 12.10MENA 29.08 27.85 15.16 64.14 11.82Sub-saharan 44.01 41.79 22.03 79.14 10.58Asia 38.45 37.71 10.77 78.19 12.21World 36.59 35.95 8.12 80.35 14.75

γ = 0.50 Region Mean Median Minimum Maximum Std. Dev.

OECD-EU 23.43 21.01 7.99 71.15 11.45Latin 45.06 44.04 22.33 73.30 13.03Post-Socialist 34.21 33.57 13.82 79.12 11.08MENA 28.22 26.98 14.97 62.87 11.38Sub-saharan 43.10 39.98 21.11 78.02 10.55Asia 37.45 36.28 10.11 77.18 14.77World 35.51 34.79 7.99 79.12 15.20

To this end, first we relax the assumption that γ = 0.425. In this case, welet γ to vary between 0.35 and 0.5. In Table 5 we report descriptive statistics ofunweighted shadow economy estimates (similar to Table 1) for different regionsusing these two different values for γ. As we can see from Table 1, results arenot significantly different from the benchmark case. Especially, we note that thecross-country (or cross-regional) and time-series correlations do not significantlychange when we let γ to take different values than the benchmark.

In similar exercises, we change the values of δ and α in tables 6 and 7. Inall cases, we end with descriptive statistics which are not significantly differentthan the those in the benchmark case.

The final robustness check we perform is regarding the construction of the{θSt} series. Remember that in the benchmark case, we have choosen θS2007

to match the shadow economy size in 2007 for any country with the shadoweconomy estimates reported in Schneider et al. (2010) and then constructed

16

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Table 6: Descriptive Statistics with Different δ

δ = 0.06 Region Mean Median Minimum Maximum Std. Dev.

OECD-EU 23.40 21.09 8.05 71.86 11.30Latin 44.72 43.76 22.32 73.40 11.88Post-Socialist 33.99 33.42 14.01 78.42 11.82MENA 28.89 27.45 15.01 63.01 11.04Sub-saharan 43.78 41.65 21.72 78.37 10.46Asia 37.92 37.49 10.55 77.86 13.12World 35.97 35.55 8.05 78.42 13.80

γ = 0.10 Region Mean Median Minimum Maximum Std. Dev.

OECD-EU 23.83 21.16 8.14 72.20 11.22Latin 45.98 45.02 23.02 74.98 12.75Post-Socialist 35.25 34.03 15.18 82.01 12.08MENA 29.20 27.82 15.32 63.77 11.40Sub-saharan 43.97 42.01 21.99 78.74 10.59Asia 39.01 38.14 11.03 79.02 13.77World 36.98 36.15 8.14 82.01 13.98

Table 7: Descriptive Statistics with Different α

α = 0.42 Region Mean Median Minimum Maximum Std. Dev.

OECD-EU 22.15 20.02 7.18 71.80 10.98Latin 44.90 43.78 22.00 73.80 12.77Post-Socialist 34.15 33.25 14.00 79.75 12.07MENA 28.50 27.41 14.63 62.52 11.00Sub-saharan 43.61 41.56 21.45 78.00 10.45Asia 38.01 37.12 10.42 77.27 14.37World 35.39 35.00 7.18 79.75 14.07

α = 0.30 Region Mean Median Minimum Maximum Std. Dev.

OECD-EU 24.00 21.12 8.32 72.12 11.42Latin 45.55 44.49 22.75 74.89 12.56Post-Socialist 35.02 34.04 14.19 80.56 12.00MENA 29.11 27.82 15.13 63.17 11.30Sub-saharan 44.00 42.20 22.05 79.17 10.65Asia 38.47 37.80 11.01 78.23 14.56World 37.20 35.90 8.32 80.56 14.70

the rest of the θSt series using the calculated growth rates. Now, an alternativeis not to match the shadow economy size in 2007 from Schneider et al. (2010)

but instead share of informal employment (NStNFt

in model’s terms.) Using data

17

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from Charmes (2009) we now match share of self-employment as % of non-agricultural employment in 2000.9 for various economies. Since this data isonly available for 111 countries, such an exercise again reduces the size of ourdataset compared to the benchmark. Nevertheless, Table 8 reports descriptivestatistics of our model’s estimates with this exercise.

Table 8: Descriptive Statistics with Different Data Matching

Region Mean Median Minimum Maximum Std. Dev.

OECD-EU 24.10 22.19 8.30 71.45 9.87Latin 46.51 45.20 23.29 74.31 12.77Post-Socialist 35.16 34.30 13.99 82.44 14.17MENA 30.00 28.08 16.01 64.15 10.89Sub-saharan 44.94 43.21 22.93 80.19 11.56Asia 38.59 37.98 10.64 78.97 15.01World 37.15 36.29 8.30 82.44 14.88

6 Conclusion

In this paper, using a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model, we de-veloped a approach to estimate the size of the shadow economy. Compared tothe methods used in the current literature, this approach overcomes three mainissues: First, it does not rely on ad-hoc econometric specifications and assump-tions. Second, as it does not estimate the size of the shadow economy usingstatistical methods, it does not include statistical errors. Finally, as opposed tothe currently existing methods, it does not lack micro-foundations.

In addition to presenting the new approach we also used it to estimate thesize of the shadow economy in a 161-country panel data framework. Withsignificantly larger time-dimension than the currently existing ones, this aimsto be the largest dataset in the literature. Thanks to this, future research cannow utilize various tools of panel data econometrics with a relatively closer focusto time-series dimension.

9This is a widely used proxy for informal employment in the empirical literature on informality.

18

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Appendix

Group Compositions:OECD-EU: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Cyprus, Denmark,

Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea(South), Luxemburg, Malta, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Por-tugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK, USA

Latin American and Caribbean: Argentina, Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia,Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala,Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Suri-name, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela,

Post-Socialist: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herze-govina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Kaza-khstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, FYR Macedonia, Moldova, Mongolia,Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Ukraine,

MENA: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya,Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, UAE, Yemen,

Sub-saharan Africa: Angola, Benin,Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi,Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Democratic Republicof Congo, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon,Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia,Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger,Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, Tan-zania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe.

Asia - Oceania: Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Comoros,Fiji, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Laos, Macao, Malaysia, Maldives, Nepal,Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Singapore, Solomon Islands, SriLanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam,

22

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Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1950-1

980

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

XX

Year

Cou

ntr

yA

lban

iaA

lger

iaA

ngo

laA

rgen

tina

Aust

ralia

Aust

ria

Bah

amas

Bah

rain

Ban

glad

esh

Bel

gium

Bel

ize

Ben

in

1950

29.6

922

.07

17.2

034

.96

1951

29.8

221

.88

17.1

034

.70

1952

29.5

321

.51

16.8

934

.48

1953

29.5

121

.66

16.8

434

.24

1954

29.3

821

.61

16.9

034

.06

1955

29.3

421

.44

16.8

933

.78

1956

29.1

021

.26

16.6

533

.54

1957

29.0

821

.18

16.5

133

.17

1958

28.9

521

.07

16.3

432

.74

1959

28.6

820

.89

16.1

548

.23

32.5

966

.65

1960

36.6

128

.56

20.7

315

.98

49.0

832

.41

65.8

2

1961

36.3

528

.15

20.4

715

.66

49.8

532

.14

65.0

5

1962

35.7

527

.68

20.3

715

.32

50.5

231

.75

64.3

6

1963

35.9

127

.36

20.1

915

.06

50.6

231

.28

63.9

4

1964

36.1

027

.32

19.9

814

.83

51.0

531

.02

63.5

2

1965

36.4

427

.10

19.6

814

.52

51.1

530

.48

63.2

8

1966

36.7

526

.82

19.5

114

.23

51.1

530

.02

63.2

4

1967

37.2

426

.62

19.2

513

.89

51.1

129

.50

63.0

5

1968

37.4

126

.37

19.0

713

.64

50.9

529

.08

62.3

4

1969

37.3

826

.16

18.7

813

.35

50.2

228

.76

61.5

5

1970

39.4

937

.09

41.8

525

.76

18.6

013

.10

32.7

617

.12

49.8

228

.21

54.0

960

.62

1971

38.9

136

.58

41.5

125

.38

18.2

912

.83

33.2

317

.19

49.6

527

.77

53.3

060

.15

1972

38.3

836

.46

41.0

025

.01

18.1

112

.61

33.6

817

.21

49.7

927

.39

52.5

759

.82

1973

37.8

136

.17

40.6

424

.67

17.9

812

.36

34.1

317

.23

50.8

227

.13

51.7

358

.79

1974

37.3

535

.58

39.9

724

.45

17.6

912

.10

34.5

017

.20

50.9

226

.83

51.1

458

.28

1975

36.9

334

.68

39.3

224

.22

17.5

811

.82

34.9

716

.79

51.1

626

.35

50.6

957

.20

1976

36.5

233

.77

38.9

824

.01

17.5

111

.69

35.5

717

.51

51.3

426

.16

49.8

156

.18

1977

36.1

433

.11

38.8

823

.77

17.4

411

.55

36.0

917

.22

51.3

125

.88

48.8

455

.83

1978

35.7

832

.25

38.6

823

.38

17.3

511

.38

36.5

217

.31

50.8

525

.63

48.1

755

.63

1979

35.4

231

.27

38.5

023

.20

17.2

311

.30

37.0

817

.15

50.3

325

.43

47.4

155

.59

1980

35.0

730

.62

39.2

622

.99

17.1

511

.13

37.2

716

.81

49.4

025

.26

46.3

154

.74

23

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Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1950-1

980

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

XX

Year

Cou

ntr

yB

huta

nB

oliv

iaB

otsw

ana

Bra

zil

Bru

nei

Bulg

aria

Burk

ina

Fas

oB

uru

ndi

Cam

bodia

Cam

eroon

Can

ada

Cap

eV

erde

1950

72.3

963

.86

24.2

4

1951

72.6

563

.05

24.0

1

1952

72.0

761

.93

23.8

2

1953

71.9

160

.25

23.6

7

1954

72.4

359

.98

23.4

9

1955

72.2

959

.14

23.4

7

1956

71.1

958

.30

23.3

3

1957

70.4

157

.99

23.0

6

1958

70.1

056

.99

22.8

0

1959

70.1

556

.26

52.9

722

.66

1960

70.3

455

.01

53.8

252

.82

42.4

522

.53

49.7

3

1961

70.1

954

.35

54.5

953

.06

42.8

022

.38

48.7

7

1962

70.0

653

.60

55.3

253

.26

43.1

022

.28

47.4

1

1963

69.1

452

.83

56.0

253

.14

43.3

522

.16

46.6

4

1964

68.4

952

.54

56.7

353

.44

43.5

522

.05

46.9

9

1965

67.8

352

.25

57.7

353

.68

43.5

721

.91

47.4

4

1966

67.4

551

.68

58.0

553

.90

43.2

521

.74

47.7

0

1967

67.1

151

.05

58.3

453

.85

42.6

721

.46

47.1

3

1968

66.7

750

.76

58.4

253

.52

42.4

121

.27

47.3

5

1969

66.5

850

.18

58.6

752

.95

42.1

321

.12

47.2

3

1970

50.3

666

.39

48.9

635

.90

47.1

658

.47

52.3

455

.93

41.9

720

.87

46.5

0

1971

50.0

366

.35

48.0

637

.14

46.2

758

.16

52.4

855

.90

41.4

620

.70

45.5

1

1972

49.7

265

.99

47.0

538

.11

45.3

856

.43

51.2

856

.04

40.6

320

.56

44.7

2

1973

49.4

765

.32

45.9

238

.95

44.4

955

.50

52.0

356

.29

39.8

520

.46

44.0

9

1974

49.2

465

.13

44.5

839

.90

43.6

254

.54

51.9

956

.77

39.1

320

.27

43.5

6

1975

49.0

065

.00

60.0

243

.30

40.7

542

.74

52.8

251

.17

57.0

338

.73

20.0

243

.14

1976

48.8

864

.00

57.7

642

.06

41.4

441

.83

52.4

350

.91

57.0

838

.06

19.9

142

.51

1977

48.6

363

.72

55.8

440

.95

41.8

940

.98

51.8

750

.24

57.1

337

.78

19.6

942

.03

1978

48.3

663

.16

55.8

840

.12

42.4

240

.11

51.6

448

.66

57.3

436

.95

19.5

441

.54

1979

48.0

362

.19

55.2

339

.38

42.8

639

.28

51.1

047

.42

57.8

035

.62

19.4

241

.27

1980

47.5

961

.92

54.0

738

.76

43.0

938

.57

49.5

046

.39

58.6

634

.64

19.2

141

.14

24

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Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1950-1

980

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

yC

entr

alA

fric

anR

ep.

Chad

Chile

Chin

aC

olom

bia

Com

oros

Con

go,

Dem

.R

ep.

Con

go,

Rep

.C

osta

Ric

aC

ote

d’I

voir

eC

ypru

s

1950

55.0

543

.70

42.5

547

.17

1951

29.2

354

.36

43.7

042

.58

46.7

7

1952

28.4

534

.06

53.9

143

.39

42.4

946

.00

1953

27.9

534

.12

53.3

842

.66

42.1

145

.30

1954

27.0

934

.00

52.7

441

.73

41.5

644

.65

1955

26.9

133

.62

51.7

141

.05

41.2

743

.06

1956

26.5

133

.47

50.7

840

.39

40.7

841

.14

1957

26.0

533

.16

50.0

439

.82

40.3

139

.49

1958

25.6

832

.90

49.5

539

.36

39.7

638

.18

1959

25.3

532

.05

49.4

139

.23

39.4

738

.02

1960

40.9

859

.59

25.2

530

.48

49.2

145

.39

39.2

768

.19

38.9

259

.37

38.3

6

1961

40.7

060

.06

24.8

329

.29

48.8

645

.03

39.7

263

.95

38.5

458

.46

38.3

8

1962

40.1

060

.52

24.5

829

.33

48.3

945

.57

40.2

361

.16

38.1

857

.45

38.0

8

1963

39.7

660

.99

24.1

629

.77

48.1

144

.66

41.2

760

.48

37.7

157

.05

37.4

1

1964

39.1

661

.36

23.5

729

.97

47.9

944

.45

41.2

860

.53

37.2

855

.84

36.7

0

1965

38.9

261

.98

23.2

829

.91

47.6

443

.85

41.1

460

.56

37.1

454

.13

36.8

8

1966

38.7

462

.58

23.0

629

.60

47.4

442

.81

41.0

159

.95

36.6

453

.01

36.4

4

1967

38.9

462

.95

23.1

929

.06

47.1

041

.20

41.0

958

.66

36.1

551

.96

36.0

5

1968

38.5

463

.20

23.1

828

.95

46.8

140

.13

41.3

357

.42

35.6

751

.28

35.5

3

1969

38.5

463

.17

23.0

928

.85

46.2

939

.68

41.5

856

.64

35.2

750

.57

35.0

9

1970

38.3

763

.35

22.9

928

.74

45.8

039

.47

41.3

156

.03

34.7

449

.56

34.3

7

1971

38.2

763

.38

22.9

328

.14

45.2

138

.59

41.0

455

.47

34.2

048

.43

33.8

0

1972

38.0

763

.49

22.8

627

.54

44.7

437

.80

40.8

354

.78

33.4

647

.49

33.2

5

1973

37.8

163

.37

23.0

427

.18

44.3

537

.14

40.5

954

.27

33.0

246

.58

32.7

7

1974

38.0

863

.55

23.3

626

.66

43.9

536

.50

40.4

953

.77

32.3

945

.66

32.1

6

1975

38.4

862

.84

23.1

326

.23

43.2

635

.92

40.4

053

.42

31.7

844

.88

31.7

4

1976

39.0

261

.51

23.4

725

.69

43.0

435

.36

40.3

853

.17

31.4

444

.08

31.9

1

1977

39.4

960

.38

23.8

025

.35

42.7

235

.30

40.3

352

.89

30.8

843

.19

32.2

0

1978

39.7

259

.88

24.0

524

.99

42.2

034

.82

40.2

952

.98

30.2

141

.69

32.0

0

1979

40.0

159

.48

24.1

824

.38

41.6

634

.47

40.3

052

.86

29.6

540

.27

31.6

6

1980

40.5

359

.32

24.2

123

.90

41.2

334

.15

40.3

052

.18

29.0

339

.52

31.1

5

25

Page 26: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1950-1

980

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

yD

enm

ark

Dom

ini-

can

Rep

.E

cuad

orE

gypt

El

Sal

vador

Eth

iopia

Fij

iF

inla

nd

Fra

nce

Gab

onG

ambia

1950

27.4

062

.28

64.9

351

.16

29.1

823

.68

1951

27.2

758

.40

45.7

762

.66

65.2

152

.25

29.1

323

.61

1952

27.3

758

.48

45.2

163

.02

65.2

353

.04

28.8

023

.48

1953

27.4

957

.39

45.0

763

.12

65.1

753

.68

28.3

223

.44

1954

27.4

556

.90

44.5

062

.85

65.0

253

.59

28.2

023

.50

1955

27.3

556

.52

43.5

762

.49

65.0

452

.96

27.8

223

.47

1956

27.4

055

.73

42.6

562

.14

64.9

952

.24

27.3

823

.48

1957

27.3

554

.87

41.8

962

.27

64.2

451

.87

27.0

023

.26

1958

27.2

054

.02

41.2

662

.30

63.4

151

.24

26.6

923

.05

1959

27.2

653

.29

40.8

162

.02

63.0

949

.54

26.2

422

.77

1960

27.0

253

.27

40.2

961

.51

63.3

349

.12

44.1

326

.04

22.5

976

.76

55.0

8

1961

26.6

453

.67

39.7

261

.16

62.3

247

.95

43.9

425

.58

22.2

775

.18

56.0

8

1962

26.2

754

.32

39.2

160

.41

61.7

946

.84

43.7

825

.05

21.9

472

.83

56.8

7

1963

25.8

454

.27

38.9

259

.39

61.3

445

.79

43.8

224

.58

21.5

970

.57

58.5

8

1964

25.6

353

.63

38.5

858

.32

60.7

844

.84

43.7

224

.36

21.2

369

.50

59.0

2

1965

25.2

052

.56

38.2

457

.08

59.3

944

.09

43.5

824

.04

20.8

068

.90

60.3

1

1966

24.7

453

.17

37.9

855

.91

58.5

043

.32

43.1

923

.60

20.4

268

.87

60.8

2

1967

24.3

852

.87

37.7

455

.02

57.3

642

.46

42.9

223

.16

20.0

267

.27

60.8

8

1968

24.0

052

.49

37.2

554

.64

56.8

241

.47

42.7

222

.82

19.6

467

.14

61.2

8

1969

23.6

452

.23

36.7

354

.50

56.8

440

.61

41.7

822

.58

19.2

866

.98

61.0

7

1970

23.2

151

.46

36.4

054

.22

56.7

339

.99

41.1

522

.30

18.7

766

.76

60.6

5

1971

22.8

550

.44

36.2

153

.90

56.4

639

.77

40.6

721

.84

18.4

466

.30

61.6

1

1972

22.5

449

.26

35.5

753

.73

55.7

239

.46

40.0

421

.44

18.1

765

.59

60.9

4

1973

22.2

448

.04

35.3

353

.10

55.2

639

.08

39.3

821

.20

17.9

164

.87

60.3

3

1974

21.8

746

.36

34.9

051

.56

54.4

138

.90

38.5

820

.96

17.6

465

.25

60.8

6

1975

21.5

944

.79

34.1

249

.96

53.1

638

.80

38.1

520

.51

17.3

460

.89

61.9

8

1976

21.5

143

.44

33.2

047

.84

52.3

638

.73

37.5

920

.26

17.2

657

.11

62.5

3

1977

21.3

342

.47

32.5

846

.09

51.5

238

.88

37.2

420

.07

17.2

052

.17

62.1

6

1978

21.1

741

.55

31.8

844

.68

50.0

038

.94

36.9

619

.92

17.0

649

.24

60.6

6

1979

21.0

840

.75

31.0

643

.02

48.7

339

.21

36.6

519

.93

16.8

949

.29

59.8

7

1980

20.9

439

.94

30.4

741

.23

48.1

739

.14

35.9

819

.84

16.7

448

.79

59.2

1

26

Page 27: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1950-1

980

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

yG

erm

any

Ghan

aG

reec

eG

uat

emal

aG

uin

eaG

uin

ea-

Bis

sau

Guya

na

Hai

tiH

ondura

sH

ong

Kon

gH

unga

ry

1950

74.3

066

.24

1951

49.2

973

.85

66.5

9

1952

49.1

673

.52

66.4

2

1953

49.6

373

.80

65.9

9

1954

49.4

173

.86

65.4

5

1955

48.0

349

.74

74.0

365

.78

1956

45.8

549

.76

73.0

865

.88

1957

43.8

649

.38

71.1

765

.90

1958

42.8

748

.92

69.5

065

.80

1959

41.9

348

.19

68.6

449

.15

66.1

5

1960

40.3

847

.37

68.1

949

.73

52.4

563

.21

66.3

233

.53

1961

38.8

346

.49

68.0

950

.09

51.1

864

.09

66.4

332

.81

1962

38.1

144

.96

68.2

950

.10

50.3

565

.08

66.7

832

.32

1963

37.4

843

.82

68.4

749

.88

49.5

165

.93

66.5

031

.35

1964

36.8

442

.59

67.9

650

.16

48.5

166

.76

66.0

030

.33

1965

35.5

741

.12

66.9

950

.33

47.6

667

.66

65.8

729

.21

1966

35.2

039

.58

66.1

650

.25

47.2

368

.54

65.4

027

.88

1967

34.9

838

.50

65.7

250

.03

46.9

969

.51

64.7

527

.05

1968

35.3

237

.60

64.9

850

.07

46.6

670

.45

63.5

926

.63

1969

35.5

836

.69

63.6

650

.15

46.4

071

.27

62.5

526

.39

1970

18.5

735

.30

35.5

063

.22

50.2

645

.93

34.8

671

.29

61.5

326

.24

32.4

4

1971

18.3

435

.25

34.4

162

.48

50.3

344

.27

34.6

071

.44

61.0

726

.09

32.0

8

1972

18.1

535

.01

33.2

861

.52

50.3

443

.24

34.5

771

.09

61.0

225

.69

31.7

9

1973

17.9

535

.51

32.2

161

.11

50.3

342

.72

34.4

970

.47

61.0

525

.29

31.5

5

1974

17.7

435

.62

30.9

460

.39

50.3

242

.67

34.2

669

.40

58.8

724

.85

31.3

2

1975

17.6

135

.31

30.3

859

.04

50.2

543

.57

33.8

167

.85

57.8

924

.46

30.9

4

1976

17.5

535

.24

29.9

758

.33

50.1

744

.30

32.7

366

.39

57.4

824

.28

30.4

5

1977

17.4

535

.31

29.4

856

.98

49.9

944

.75

31.7

564

.79

57.0

123

.82

30.0

0

1978

17.3

535

.02

29.1

955

.60

49.9

044

.70

31.3

763

.19

56.2

723

.26

29.4

8

1979

17.2

635

.41

28.8

954

.28

49.7

344

.46

31.4

561

.77

55.1

022

.91

28.8

7

1980

17.1

135

.34

28.7

853

.53

49.6

343

.58

31.0

560

.05

53.8

922

.39

28.5

2

27

Page 28: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1950-1

980

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

yIc

elan

dIn

dia

Indon

esia

Iran

Irel

and

Isra

elIt

aly

Jam

aica

Jap

anJor

dan

Ken

ya

1950

26.3

640

.39

27.8

740

.68

50.4

823

.68

38.3

2

1951

26.2

240

.64

27.7

640

.15

50.2

524

.12

37.8

8

1952

26.1

240

.77

27.5

238

.96

49.8

423

.99

37.3

9

1953

26.0

041

.05

27.4

537

.93

49.5

348

.40

24.0

736

.98

1954

25.7

841

.16

27.2

937

.43

48.9

947

.89

24.1

628

.02

36.5

7

1955

25.5

840

.96

31.0

627

.16

36.9

548

.46

47.2

024

.21

28.1

436

.03

1956

24.9

140

.61

31.0

726

.90

35.9

047

.60

46.4

524

.14

28.6

835

.37

1957

24.4

940

.12

30.8

226

.80

35.8

546

.70

45.6

423

.99

28.7

734

.87

1958

24.1

839

.84

30.3

326

.85

35.2

945

.76

44.4

823

.55

28.7

734

.48

1959

23.6

939

.59

29.6

826

.91

34.6

845

.05

43.5

923

.29

29.2

634

.35

1960

23.2

439

.31

32.7

829

.06

26.7

533

.99

44.1

643

.01

23.0

129

.37

34.3

3

1961

22.9

538

.66

33.0

828

.34

26.6

933

.45

43.2

642

.34

22.4

729

.19

34.3

0

1962

22.6

738

.08

33.0

827

.86

26.4

832

.82

42.1

641

.87

21.7

228

.88

34.6

5

1963

22.6

337

.45

33.1

327

.51

26.2

532

.16

41.0

141

.63

21.0

528

.38

34.9

9

1964

22.3

336

.84

33.3

727

.08

25.9

231

.72

40.0

341

.50

20.4

428

.35

35.2

2

1965

21.9

536

.15

33.5

926

.57

25.5

030

.93

39.2

541

.17

19.7

827

.83

35.6

1

1966

21.4

735

.56

33.6

625

.83

25.1

230

.13

38.7

340

.77

19.2

727

.24

35.8

8

1967

20.9

335

.09

33.7

125

.20

24.7

529

.43

38.3

340

.26

18.7

527

.32

35.7

9

1968

20.3

834

.69

33.9

024

.42

24.4

629

.57

37.7

839

.68

18.1

427

.27

35.5

0

1969

20.1

334

.41

33.9

423

.68

24.0

329

.20

37.1

938

.81

17.4

426

.99

34.9

5

1970

20.0

334

.02

33.7

223

.08

23.4

428

.45

36.5

737

.90

16.7

725

.64

34.3

5

1971

20.1

833

.64

33.2

522

.67

23.0

728

.01

35.8

637

.23

16.0

325

.62

33.5

2

1972

19.6

233

.23

32.6

122

.34

22.5

727

.41

35.3

236

.62

15.4

424

.99

32.8

8

1973

19.5

432

.97

31.8

021

.83

22.1

226

.38

34.9

726

.23

14.9

824

.12

32.4

2

1974

19.2

932

.62

30.9

721

.32

21.6

125

.72

34.4

435

.67

14.4

423

.99

31.9

3

1975

18.7

932

.28

29.9

620

.37

21.2

925

.16

33.7

535

.65

14.0

323

.38

31.5

9

1976

18.4

231

.93

29.0

219

.40

21.0

524

.75

33.6

335

.47

13.7

822

.95

31.6

7

1977

18.3

131

.59

28.1

818

.43

20.8

824

.60

33.2

935

.79

13.5

522

.32

31.6

5

1978

18.0

431

.25

27.3

017

.71

20.5

324

.43

33.0

236

.40

13.3

521

.00

31.3

6

1979

17.8

830

.79

26.4

117

.47

20.2

624

.44

32.8

836

.88

13.1

520

.05

30.9

5

1980

17.8

430

.25

25.6

617

.29

19.7

724

.15

32.6

637

.07

12.9

319

.66

30.8

6

28

Page 29: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1950-1

980

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

yK

orea

Rep

.L

aos

Leb

anon

Les

otho

Lib

eria

Luxem

-b

ourg

Mac

aoM

adag

as-

car

Mal

awi

Mal

aysi

aM

aldiv

es

1950

14.7

5

1951

14.4

5

1952

14.3

8

1953

65.5

914

.21

1954

66.0

413

.94

59.8

4

1955

66.7

713

.74

60.5

467

.35

1956

67.2

813

.61

59.8

267

.92

1957

68.3

413

.46

59.4

968

.23

1958

68.3

113

.22

58.1

768

.28

1959

68.6

713

.06

56.0

468

.42

1960

69.5

053

.20

12.9

341

.96

57.6

068

.85

1961

70.6

354

.50

12.7

941

.37

57.3

268

.30

1962

71.1

255

.74

12.6

341

.07

55.0

167

.70

1963

72.0

856

.67

12.4

240

.93

54.9

966

.65

1964

70.5

557

.27

12.3

040

.59

53.9

765

.56

1965

70.4

857

.52

12.1

240

.19

55.1

364

.71

1966

70.3

657

.86

11.9

839

.97

54.2

063

.71

1967

68.4

358

.01

11.8

339

.73

51.7

862

.81

1968

66.8

457

.92

11.8

039

.32

51.3

561

.92

1969

64.1

657

.88

11.8

238

.74

50.1

160

.98

1970

62.0

344

.84

29.3

857

.93

30.8

911

.91

17.2

538

.24

49.3

460

.46

56.2

3

1971

60.5

645

.35

29.6

857

.74

30.7

611

.86

17.0

537

.76

46.2

959

.41

55.2

7

1972

59.1

045

.69

29.8

657

.34

30.6

211

.79

16.8

037

.45

44.6

557

.79

54.3

3

1973

58.4

646

.34

29.6

856

.60

30.6

611

.71

16.5

537

.38

42.1

856

.49

53.4

4

1974

57.1

546

.53

29.6

255

.18

30.7

111

.61

16.3

137

.23

41.8

654

.75

52.6

8

1975

54.9

446

.94

29.6

054

.06

30.2

511

.54

16.0

737

.07

41.2

652

.29

51.9

9

1976

53.9

546

.97

29.3

552

.41

29.5

811

.51

15.8

337

.03

39.5

551

.31

51.5

9

1977

52.5

046

.55

29.6

049

.73

29.0

211

.47

15.5

937

.18

38.7

350

.30

51.2

5

1978

50.8

446

.40

29.6

746

.72

28.6

211

.50

15.3

937

.30

38.9

148

.98

50.7

8

1979

48.5

845

.98

29.7

444

.74

28.2

211

.44

15.2

237

.27

36.8

847

.84

50.1

1

1980

46.0

846

.68

29.7

742

.98

27.9

211

.45

15.0

736

.84

35.9

146

.55

49.3

6

29

Page 30: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1950-1

980

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

yM

ali

Mal

taM

auri

ta-

nia

Mau

ritu

sM

exic

oM

ongo

lia

Mor

occ

oM

ozam

-biq

ue

Nam

ibia

Nep

alN

ether

-la

nds

1950

33.2

148

.01

59.4

220

.27

1951

33.1

047

.98

58.4

720

.03

1952

32.9

647

.67

57.0

219

.82

1953

33.1

147

.25

56.0

619

.83

1954

32.8

546

.94

54.7

519

.73

1955

32.8

946

.49

53.5

819

.49

1956

32.7

845

.90

53.4

919

.24

1957

32.8

145

.05

53.5

718

.97

1958

32.7

244

.25

54.5

718

.70

1959

32.4

443

.71

54.2

618

.60

1960

53.8

544

.74

32.3

443

.24

54.9

649

.69

37.8

853

.69

18.4

5

1961

54.4

843

.58

31.5

442

.73

55.0

949

.86

37.7

354

.69

18.1

6

1962

55.0

141

.75

31.2

242

.24

55.5

049

.78

37.6

655

.65

17.9

5

1963

55.5

439

.75

31.0

541

.85

55.2

549

.99

37.4

456

.61

17.7

3

1964

55.7

540

.43

30.8

441

.31

54.6

750

.22

37.1

857

.43

17.5

9

1965

55.5

640

.71

31.0

340

.55

54.4

550

.35

36.9

157

.71

17.2

7

1966

55.5

840

.94

30.8

339

.72

53.9

750

.48

36.4

958

.19

16.9

9

1967

55.3

041

.35

31.1

838

.93

54.1

350

.31

35.8

458

.86

16.7

1

1968

54.9

041

.14

31.1

838

.22

53.5

850

.13

35.1

859

.40

16.4

4

1969

54.5

940

.07

31.4

737

.44

53.4

549

.65

34.5

259

.83

16.1

4

1970

54.4

142

.36

39.6

231

.43

36.9

319

.50

52.6

148

.92

33.9

060

.44

15.8

7

1971

54.3

040

.00

39.0

631

.82

37.4

919

.04

51.0

848

.17

33.0

860

.69

15.5

8

1972

54.9

638

.59

38.4

732

.13

37.1

918

.64

49.8

047

.47

32.3

560

.49

15.3

4

1973

54.1

337

.97

37.1

932

.52

36.8

318

.29

49.4

746

.74

31.7

260

.39

15.1

7

1974

53.5

937

.51

36.8

832

.10

36.3

217

.94

48.7

146

.01

31.1

859

.86

15.0

0

1975

53.2

737

.41

35.2

131

.84

35.6

717

.63

48.5

845

.43

30.6

559

.49

14.8

6

1976

52.6

837

.12

33.6

231

.00

35.0

817

.36

46.0

544

.92

30.1

858

.11

14.7

7

1977

52.0

436

.85

32.0

930

.25

34.6

617

.09

43.8

744

.38

29.7

956

.77

14.6

7

1978

51.0

536

.58

31.1

229

.65

34.3

116

.78

41.4

743

.97

29.3

555

.44

14.5

7

1979

50.0

336

.45

31.4

929

.09

33.8

716

.49

40.6

743

.74

28.9

653

.93

14.4

9

1980

49.3

135

.85

31.7

828

.40

33.2

816

.25

40.1

843

.39

28.8

753

.07

14.4

9

30

Page 31: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1950-1

980

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

yN

ewZ

eala

nd

Nic

arag

ua

Nig

erN

iger

iaN

orw

ayO

man

Pak

ista

nP

anam

aP

apua

New

Guin

eaP

arag

uay

Per

u

1950

16.6

455

.23

67.8

129

.56

57.3

872

.81

1951

16.4

555

.82

68.8

629

.10

58.3

256

.13

71.2

2

1952

16.3

555

.82

69.4

228

.73

59.0

256

.91

68.5

9

1953

16.3

255

.23

69.7

628

.36

59.5

657

.29

65.9

5

1954

16.3

754

.50

70.0

227

.93

59.8

657

.29

63.7

9

1955

16.1

753

.50

70.1

727

.53

60.1

257

.60

63.0

0

1956

16.0

252

.67

69.8

627

.11

60.2

658

.07

61.8

4

1957

15.9

452

.16

69.7

226

.74

60.4

758

.63

60.3

7

1958

15.8

351

.76

69.2

926

.36

60.4

258

.27

58.7

4

1959

15.7

451

.54

69.1

625

.98

60.2

958

.14

57.7

4

1960

15.6

651

.18

39.4

068

.74

25.7

259

.63

58.9

358

.14

57.7

5

1961

15.5

851

.11

39.6

968

.39

25.5

258

.19

59.4

458

.03

57.0

9

1962

15.4

550

.95

40.1

067

.78

25.2

255

.66

59.7

357

.93

56.6

0

1963

15.3

850

.43

40.1

067

.40

24.9

453

.48

59.8

958

.16

56.0

4

1964

15.3

049

.77

39.6

166

.86

24.7

251

.27

59.6

158

.35

55.6

7

1965

15.1

648

.57

39.4

866

.04

24.4

849

.42

58.8

058

.55

55.2

5

1966

14.9

547

.30

39.4

764

.50

24.1

747

.44

57.3

958

.05

54.7

6

1967

14.7

245

.99

39.5

363

.41

23.8

646

.63

55.8

657

.54

53.8

5

1968

14.5

845

.03

39.4

662

.94

23.4

445

.72

54.5

356

.77

52.9

7

1969

14.6

144

.53

39.3

762

.83

23.1

644

.79

53.2

756

.18

53.0

3

1970

14.5

443

.83

39.6

962

.53

23.0

428

.05

44.3

351

.25

55.6

152

.83

1971

14.4

543

.33

39.6

760

.57

22.7

528

.54

43.7

148

.29

55.2

553

.55

1972

14.3

542

.84

39.7

858

.94

22.6

628

.23

43.3

646

.95

54.7

054

.02

1973

14.2

943

.01

39.4

557

.34

22.3

827

.76

43.0

346

.96

53.8

554

.79

1974

14.1

242

.12

38.8

655

.55

22.0

427

.89

42.6

146

.97

52.4

354

.95

1975

13.8

140

.77

38.2

454

.55

21.7

827

.77

42.0

770

.17

46.7

850

.92

54.3

6

1976

13.7

640

.62

38.0

153

.08

21.5

727

.11

41.4

169

.11

47.1

149

.66

53.9

8

1977

13.6

840

.45

37.8

350

.86

21.2

526

.28

40.7

368

.43

45.9

248

.19

53.8

3

1978

13.6

439

.24

37.8

148

.66

20.9

525

.72

40.1

768

.44

45.0

446

.65

54.1

7

1979

13.6

939

.42

37.3

947

.12

20.8

425

.20

39.7

868

.08

44.1

944

.97

54.6

4

1980

13.6

641

.13

36.9

046

.25

20.6

924

.74

39.4

567

.97

43.0

943

.24

54.7

5

31

Page 32: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1950-1

980

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

yP

hilip

-pin

esP

olan

dP

ortu

gal

Rom

ania

Rw

anda

Sen

egal

Sie

rra

Leo

ne

Sin

gap

ore

Sol

omon

Isla

nds

Sou

thA

fric

aSpai

n

1950

65.1

346

.80

35.8

945

.71

1951

64.5

146

.71

35.7

645

.67

1952

64.0

746

.67

35.1

945

.59

1953

63.8

046

.54

35.0

545

.29

1954

63.1

446

.15

34.7

844

.90

1955

62.4

045

.78

34.3

844

.31

1956

61.7

045

.63

34.0

243

.66

1957

60.7

845

.47

33.7

643

.00

1958

59.6

244

.93

33.4

642

.33

1959

58.6

944

.50

33.1

341

.79

1960

57.6

144

.15

55.6

746

.22

53.0

125

.12

33.0

441

.35

1961

57.0

643

.28

55.6

746

.70

53.7

850

.16

24.6

432

.74

40.6

1

1962

56.3

042

.16

54.6

646

.95

54.3

250

.51

24.3

132

.70

39.6

8

1963

55.6

941

.53

53.8

447

.21

55.0

050

.46

23.9

932

.81

38.7

1

1964

54.8

540

.70

52.6

147

.67

55.4

549

.93

23.5

932

.68

37.7

3

1965

53.9

539

.84

51.6

747

.81

55.7

449

.34

23.3

132

.17

36.6

9

1966

53.1

238

.84

50.6

747

.89

55.9

848

.70

22.9

931

.45

35.6

7

1967

52.3

838

.01

49.6

348

.67

56.3

947

.53

22.6

931

.11

34.7

9

1968

51.5

837

.30

48.4

249

.30

56.8

647

.15

22.3

730

.39

33.9

8

1969

50.9

036

.58

47.2

349

.56

57.1

246

.85

21.9

829

.97

33.1

1

1970

50.2

335

.02

36.2

746

.18

49.9

357

.20

46.1

421

.58

38.4

829

.44

32.3

5

1971

49.7

934

.79

35.1

844

.92

50.2

256

.97

45.0

021

.10

38.8

128

.82

31.7

3

1972

49.2

934

.55

34.3

743

.57

50.1

756

.71

44.5

820

.56

38.2

628

.11

31.1

3

1973

48.8

634

.29

33.5

042

.25

50.6

956

.18

44.1

920

.07

37.7

527

.86

30.5

2

1974

48.2

633

.99

33.1

541

.01

51.0

855

.84

43.2

119

.69

37.5

027

.47

29.8

0

1975

47.4

833

.62

32.3

339

.60

50.3

455

.63

42.4

119

.09

36.6

126

.88

29.1

2

1976

46.4

833

.14

32.4

838

.07

49.4

755

.25

42.2

018

.75

36.4

226

.38

28.5

2

1977

45.3

132

.68

32.3

236

.91

48.5

255

.16

41.8

818

.39

36.1

726

.14

28.1

5

1978

44.3

732

.35

31.7

935

.45

47.1

054

.96

41.8

218

.19

35.7

126

.00

27.8

5

1979

43.4

731

.91

31.3

633

.95

46.2

455

.03

41.4

417

.96

35.4

025

.94

27.6

1

1980

42.5

531

.53

30.9

132

.87

45.3

854

.83

40.8

117

.63

34.6

725

.85

27.3

9

32

Page 33: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1950-1

980

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

ySri

Lan

kaSudan

Suri

nam

eSw

azilan

dSw

eden

Sw

itze

r-la

nd

Syri

aT

aiw

anT

anza

nia

Thai

land

Tog

o

1950

71.8

211

.83

1951

71.3

826

.24

11.9

075

.43

1952

70.5

326

.06

11.8

476

.26

1953

69.7

025

.91

11.8

776

.64

1954

69.3

625

.80

11.9

076

.37

1955

68.9

725

.59

11.8

776

.04

1956

67.6

125

.35

11.8

175

.88

1957

67.1

425

.17

11.6

875

.75

1958

66.6

624

.99

11.4

675

.61

1959

66.1

724

.83

11.4

375

.28

1960

65.6

424

.63

11.4

028

.41

74.5

538

.91

1961

65.3

324

.33

11.3

028

.39

73.2

939

.14

1962

65.6

524

.02

11.1

228

.21

72.0

339

.46

1963

64.2

623

.69

10.9

127

.66

71.1

939

.44

1964

63.5

723

.39

10.7

327

.40

69.9

839

.09

1965

63.0

823

.03

10.4

727

.07

68.6

937

.99

1966

62.9

622

.70

10.2

926

.98

66.7

036

.72

1967

62.6

122

.35

10.1

526

.70

64.9

236

.07

1968

62.1

622

.08

10.0

126

.50

62.5

735

.81

1969

61.5

121

.85

9.91

26.1

960

.13

35.7

2

1970

60.4

033

.12

40.6

059

.68

21.6

29.

8225

.46

58.0

578

.41

35.6

0

1971

59.1

333

.49

41.2

758

.73

21.3

39.

6825

.39

56.0

476

.41

35.0

5

1972

58.4

133

.92

41.8

958

.13

21.1

09.

5425

.28

53.9

774

.24

34.2

7

1973

57.6

434

.38

42.4

657

.16

20.9

39.

4124

.84

51.9

872

.83

33.5

5

1974

57.7

834

.55

42.5

956

.28

20.8

29.

2724

.61

50.0

771

.68

32.8

7

1975

57.2

834

.41

42.1

254

.41

20.6

89.

0224

.16

47.5

570

.57

32.1

3

1976

56.7

133

.98

41.6

453

.29

20.4

68.

9523

.43

46.1

369

.67

78.0

931

.01

1977

55.7

133

.50

41.7

351

.72

20.2

68.

9522

.44

44.6

068

.89

76.9

930

.40

1978

55.1

933

.31

41.4

949

.82

20.2

18.

9621

.50

43.3

967

.75

75.3

429

.26

1979

53.6

333

.29

41.4

247

.01

20.2

68.

9720

.89

42.0

966

.98

73.3

027

.95

1980

53.0

333

.35

41.4

945

.30

20.2

38.

9720

.54

40.6

066

.30

71.9

927

.15

33

Page 34: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1950-1

980

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

yT

rinid

adan

dT

obag

oT

unis

iaT

urk

eyU

ganda

Unit

edK

ingd

omU

nit

edSta

tes

Uru

guay

Ven

ezuel

aV

ietn

amZ

ambia

Zim

bab

we

1950

56.2

265

.26

60.4

818

.38

13.3

860

.67

39.3

0

1951

55.4

265

.85

60.7

318

.49

13.1

659

.67

38.3

5

1952

54.4

466

.27

60.6

118

.44

12.9

958

.25

37.4

0

1953

53.5

966

.12

59.9

618

.52

12.9

457

.31

36.2

3

1954

53.1

565

.67

59.3

518

.54

12.9

256

.99

35.2

8

1955

52.8

365

.20

58.9

218

.55

12.9

356

.03

34.3

749

.37

1956

52.0

565

.05

58.3

518

.49

12.8

255

.52

33.6

948

.23

1957

51.3

564

.54

57.9

318

.42

12.7

055

.29

33.0

046

.99

1958

50.0

263

.52

57.8

818

.30

12.6

454

.79

32.2

345

.88

1959

48.7

161

.86

57.9

018

.23

12.6

255

.03

31.7

845

.80

1960

47.3

260

.98

58.1

018

.16

12.5

855

.09

31.4

545

.60

74.2

9

1961

46.0

353

.12

60.1

258

.33

17.9

812

.50

54.9

531

.54

45.3

473

.87

1962

45.3

252

.45

59.3

058

.11

17.8

112

.44

54.6

231

.65

45.2

173

.04

1963

44.3

650

.95

58.4

357

.97

17.6

712

.37

54.5

531

.65

45.2

173

.31

1964

43.8

849

.45

57.3

957

.33

17.5

312

.29

54.6

131

.65

45.5

373

.89

1965

43.4

347

.95

56.5

156

.14

17.2

712

.20

54.8

531

.38

45.8

474

.71

1966

42.7

946

.66

55.7

855

.34

17.0

312

.04

55.1

531

.17

45.1

175

.10

1967

42.3

645

.74

54.4

454

.65

16.7

811

.87

55.4

231

.10

44.2

475

.51

1968

42.3

544

.76

53.3

253

.70

16.5

411

.76

55.5

030

.98

43.1

975

.75

1969

42.0

644

.02

52.1

552

.92

16.3

011

.67

55.8

630

.64

42.2

873

.98

1970

42.0

743

.35

50.8

051

.97

16.0

811

.56

55.8

130

.29

26.1

341

.80

73.3

8

1971

41.7

743

.19

49.7

751

.35

15.8

711

.50

55.5

329

.82

26.1

740

.30

72.5

8

1972

40.8

242

.87

49.1

350

.67

15.7

011

.44

55.2

329

.41

26.1

939

.06

71.3

2

1973

40.2

841

.95

48.3

450

.72

15.6

111

.35

55.0

629

.07

26.2

037

.90

70.2

4

1974

40.0

441

.81

47.4

650

.99

15.3

911

.22

55.0

728

.98

26.2

437

.30

69.2

9

1975

39.1

341

.18

45.5

051

.11

15.2

411

.11

55.1

528

.92

26.2

736

.24

66.7

7

1976

38.1

340

.81

44.0

351

.67

15.2

011

.11

54.8

228

.66

26.2

935

.70

64.8

8

1977

37.1

340

.30

42.8

852

.45

15.1

011

.07

54.2

528

.23

26.2

435

.98

64.4

3

1978

36.2

939

.93

42.3

153

.33

15.0

111

.01

53.3

627

.66

26.0

836

.32

63.9

3

1979

35.0

539

.48

42.0

954

.27

14.9

310

.90

52.3

427

.27

25.9

336

.75

64.6

4

1980

34.2

038

.95

41.9

954

.89

14.8

410

.77

51.0

227

.19

25.7

537

.33

66.0

4

34

Page 35: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1981-2

009

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

XX

Year

Cou

ntr

yA

lban

iaA

lger

iaA

ngo

laA

rgen

tina

Arm

enia

Aust

ralia

Aust

ria

Aze

rbai

-ja

nB

aham

asB

ahra

inB

angl

ades

hB

elar

us

1981

34.7

930

.10

39.0

422

.80

17.0

311

.01

36.9

416

.34

48.5

5

1982

34.4

229

.62

38.8

322

.77

16.8

211

.00

36.8

215

.87

48.1

1

1983

34.0

429

.20

38.8

522

.86

16.7

510

.93

36.4

016

.05

47.7

0

1984

33.7

828

.83

38.5

822

.91

16.6

510

.93

36.0

916

.03

47.2

8

1985

33.6

628

.51

38.9

422

.97

16.5

310

.86

35.9

915

.60

46.9

3

1986

33.5

628

.32

39.2

123

.22

16.4

610

.81

35.5

715

.68

45.8

1

1987

33.4

528

.36

39.6

223

.34

16.3

910

.77

35.2

315

.82

45.3

6

1988

33.4

028

.55

39.8

323

.43

16.3

010

.71

34.8

616

.01

45.0

9

1989

33.3

728

.72

40.4

223

.43

16.1

610

.63

34.6

516

.11

44.8

8

1990

33.1

128

.84

40.8

923

.92

16.0

010

.57

33.8

416

.18

44.6

9

1991

32.8

528

.99

41.3

124

.20

15.9

110

.50

32.9

816

.56

44.6

6

1992

33.3

029

.21

41.3

324

.24

15.8

810

.44

32.5

116

.46

44.4

0

1993

34.0

529

.53

41.6

224

.14

57.5

615

.80

10.3

565

.75

32.2

016

.19

43.8

8

1994

34.6

229

.86

40.5

523

.95

56.8

315

.73

10.3

565

.58

32.1

116

.56

43.3

353

.79

1995

34.9

930

.18

39.9

123

.71

55.3

515

.62

10.2

766

.08

32.0

116

.47

42.7

252

.45

1996

35.2

430

.52

42.5

123

.63

54.4

715

.51

10.1

666

.12

31.7

416

.69

42.0

851

.91

1997

35.4

230

.85

39.6

223

.49

53.5

915

.36

10.0

865

.33

31.3

316

.83

41.3

951

.32

1998

35.7

931

.18

41.5

123

.24

52.7

715

.19

10.0

164

.84

30.7

016

.89

40.6

350

.52

1999

36.0

431

.37

39.0

322

.98

51.9

814

.99

9.93

64.1

830

.03

16.6

039

.84

49.8

9

2000

36.9

731

.57

39.2

722

.92

51.4

114

.80

9.86

63.8

229

.29

16.8

239

.01

49.5

6

2001

35.7

831

.82

39.7

722

.90

50.7

414

.68

9.98

63.8

228

.58

16.8

838

.28

49.2

3

2002

35.4

431

.92

40.0

622

.96

49.8

914

.55

9.71

63.2

728

.11

17.2

637

.58

48.8

7

2003

35.1

631

.91

40.4

323

.26

48.5

914

.37

9.68

60.9

527

.68

17.3

036

.89

48.3

4

2004

34.7

531

.84

40.7

823

.41

46.9

814

.14

9.96

57.5

627

.39

17.3

236

.21

47.4

6

2005

34.2

731

.67

41.5

123

.39

45.2

413

.98

9.57

54.8

627

.21

17.1

635

.53

46.3

3

2006

33.6

431

.45

42.3

123

.28

43.2

413

.74

9.54

53.2

826

.76

17.0

434

.81

44.9

4

2007

32.9

031

.20

42.1

023

.00

41.1

013

.50

9.50

52.0

026

.20

16.8

034

.10

43.3

0

2008

32.0

630

.87

41.0

922

.64

39.0

013

.23

9.42

51.2

125

.75

16.3

233

.40

41.6

7

2009

12.9

99.

34

35

Page 36: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1981-2

009

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

XX

Year

Cou

ntr

yB

elgi

um

Bel

ize

Ben

inB

huta

nB

oliv

iaB

osnia

Bot

swan

aB

razi

lB

runei

Bulg

aria

Burk

ina

Fas

oB

uru

ndi

1981

24.9

046

.39

53.9

047

.29

62.0

352

.24

38.0

443

.65

37.7

348

.58

45.6

4

1982

24.8

146

.23

53.4

546

.77

62.2

250

.69

37.6

243

.49

36.9

147

.58

44.3

8

1983

24.7

546

.50

51.7

646

.16

63.0

448

.90

37.3

942

.19

36.2

446

.84

43.3

0

1984

24.8

046

.90

51.6

445

.24

63.7

248

.45

37.4

141

.53

35.6

846

.51

42.2

5

1985

24.7

147

.02

51.9

744

.49

64.0

448

.22

37.4

141

.71

35.1

246

.66

41.3

3

1986

24.6

947

.36

51.7

843

.69

64.1

246

.85

37.3

641

.80

34.5

045

.14

40.6

4

1987

24.6

447

.79

51.7

243

.11

64.2

246

.99

37.1

941

.81

33.8

544

.06

40.0

7

1988

24.5

847

.89

51.9

641

.90

64.4

445

.66

36.9

641

.62

33.2

443

.43

39.5

9

1989

24.4

047

.64

51.8

840

.71

65.0

248

.02

37.0

041

.26

32.5

842

.96

38.9

9

1990

24.1

746

.86

52.0

939

.81

65.7

347

.35

45.7

436

.80

40.7

532

.05

42.2

438

.63

1991

23.8

646

.25

52.3

338

.97

66.1

245

.75

43.4

737

.11

40.0

431

.40

41.6

938

.19

1992

23.6

445

.43

52.4

137

.75

66.1

644

.22

41.6

737

.37

39.1

131

.87

41.1

037

.73

1993

23.4

444

.97

52.7

436

.28

66.1

243

.00

40.8

737

.47

38.1

632

.32

40.5

637

.22

1994

23.2

844

.32

53.1

135

.35

66.1

742

.12

40.1

837

.50

37.1

432

.91

40.2

037

.04

1995

23.1

244

.36

52.9

834

.03

66.3

541

.58

39.6

137

.39

36.0

733

.42

40.2

437

.72

1996

22.9

344

.15

52.4

433

.05

66.3

341

.66

39.3

137

.08

34.9

333

.88

40.2

037

.94

1997

22.7

844

.07

52.3

932

.45

65.9

239

.39

39.4

236

.98

33.7

434

.40

40.0

138

.34

1998

22.5

744

.02

52.0

732

.30

64.9

437

.23

38.9

736

.68

32.5

334

.80

39.5

938

.72

1999

22.4

344

.10

52.0

032

.16

63.6

735

.49

37.4

636

.52

31.9

334

.98

39.5

639

.20

2000

22.2

543

.76

51.6

631

.68

63.1

134

.54

36.7

036

.50

31.7

035

.05

39.4

339

.54

2001

21.9

542

.76

51.4

531

.27

62.9

334

.11

35.6

336

.35

31.7

735

.02

39.4

339

.88

2002

21.8

142

.33

50.9

630

.37

62.9

933

.89

34.7

736

.33

31.8

834

.90

39.5

640

.35

2003

21.7

142

.01

50.7

029

.47

62.9

133

.83

34.0

136

.39

31.6

134

.63

39.8

740

.42

2004

21.6

842

.00

50.2

828

.86

63.1

133

.81

33.4

136

.57

31.5

534

.45

39.5

640

.50

2005

21.6

241

.96

49.7

428

.06

63.3

933

.43

32.2

536

.61

31.5

133

.92

39.5

340

.41

2006

21.4

442

.05

49.6

627

.73

63.4

033

.05

32.1

736

.71

31.4

233

.43

39.4

239

.95

2007

21.3

042

.00

49.1

027

.70

63.5

032

.80

31.9

036

.60

31.2

032

.70

39.6

039

.60

2008

21.0

841

.97

48.4

927

.65

63.3

432

.03

31.8

536

.42

30.8

631

.91

39.7

939

.41

2009

20.8

2

36

Page 37: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1981-2

009

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

XX

Year

Cou

ntr

yC

amb

odia

Cam

eroon

Can

ada

Cap

eV

erde

Cen

tral

Afr

ican

Rep

.C

had

Chile

Chin

aC

olom

bia

Com

oros

Con

go,

Dem

.R

ep.

Con

go,

Rep

.

1981

59.5

334

.11

19.0

741

.17

41.2

959

.25

23.9

323

.47

40.8

333

.33

40.3

750

.36

1982

60.3

933

.15

18.8

041

.06

42.1

159

.66

23.4

023

.14

40.3

133

.10

40.3

847

.33

1983

61.2

232

.35

18.7

840

.62

42.4

559

.99

23.6

722

.80

39.8

232

.69

40.4

645

.00

1984

61.8

531

.60

18.7

340

.25

42.4

059

.70

24.1

422

.38

39.4

632

.51

40.4

944

.00

1985

62.4

230

.96

18.6

139

.99

42.1

959

.30

24.3

021

.92

39.2

431

.70

40.6

043

.32

1986

63.0

630

.28

18.4

739

.73

41.9

258

.94

24.4

521

.28

39.2

331

.38

40.6

743

.17

1987

63.7

429

.71

18.3

339

.43

41.6

158

.74

24.7

020

.74

39.1

731

.43

40.7

343

.72

1988

63.3

829

.41

18.1

438

.95

41.4

758

.56

24.7

620

.24

39.0

031

.36

40.8

644

.44

1989

63.4

229

.38

17.9

338

.93

41.4

358

.21

24.7

419

.67

38.7

831

.43

41.0

845

.21

1990

64.0

429

.47

17.6

638

.77

41.3

857

.67

24.4

519

.22

38.7

031

.84

41.5

746

.00

1991

64.4

729

.63

17.4

638

.16

41.3

457

.60

24.1

518

.81

38.6

932

.06

40.5

046

.43

1992

64.3

729

.93

17.3

438

.18

41.4

657

.43

24.0

118

.40

38.7

833

.07

40.6

446

.87

1993

64.3

430

.38

17.2

837

.98

41.7

556

.55

23.7

418

.01

38.4

433

.01

41.0

347

.12

1994

63.3

530

.59

17.2

438

.08

41.8

857

.00

23.2

117

.40

37.7

233

.26

41.4

847

.35

1995

62.5

630

.84

17.1

437

.31

41.9

556

.46

22.7

416

.83

36.9

833

.39

42.5

147

.58

1996

60.8

831

.12

17.0

337

.21

42.0

657

.64

22.0

716

.21

36.1

933

.88

42.5

147

.69

1997

59.5

231

.44

16.9

736

.71

42.6

457

.49

21.5

015

.65

35.8

734

.06

42.3

147

.29

1998

58.1

531

.67

16.8

036

.41

43.0

556

.19

20.9

615

.21

35.2

534

.78

42.6

046

.86

1999

57.7

531

.85

16.6

836

.33

42.9

854

.93

20.4

514

.82

34.8

135

.07

43.3

946

.27

2000

56.1

931

.98

16.5

235

.66

43.0

055

.32

20.1

814

.42

34.8

835

.42

43.7

446

.32

2001

54.8

632

.01

16.3

235

.62

43.2

554

.83

19.9

114

.09

34.9

335

.99

45.6

546

.29

2002

53.1

531

.88

16.2

335

.45

43.4

550

.93

19.6

513

.76

34.9

336

.69

45.8

846

.07

2003

51.8

531

.81

16.1

234

.92

43.8

547

.18

19.4

813

.42

34.9

337

.29

46.2

546

.12

2004

50.3

431

.72

15.9

434

.76

44.4

646

.20

19.3

513

.04

34.7

937

.78

46.5

146

.15

2005

49.2

331

.61

15.7

434

.15

44.9

644

.69

19.0

912

.66

34.5

438

.35

46.7

146

.06

2006

47.7

531

.51

15.5

233

.79

45.2

742

.97

18.7

612

.28

34.1

138

.86

46.7

845

.52

2007

46.0

031

.40

15.3

033

.40

45.1

042

.20

18.5

011

.90

33.5

039

.40

46.7

044

.60

2008

44.3

631

.29

15.0

832

.35

45.0

341

.62

18.3

111

.53

32.8

439

.83

46.5

644

.39

2009

14.8

5

37

Page 38: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1981-2

009

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

XX

Year

Cou

ntr

yC

osta

Ric

aC

ote

d’I

voir

eC

roat

iaC

ypru

sC

zech

Rep

ublic

Den

mar

kD

omin

i-ca

nR

ep.

Ecu

ador

Egy

pt

El

Sal

vador

Equat

oria

lG

uin

eaE

ritr

ea

1981

28.4

839

.03

30.5

620

.84

39.1

929

.85

39.9

547

.98

1982

28.5

038

.75

30.2

720

.91

38.8

229

.61

38.6

447

.90

1983

28.7

139

.07

29.9

520

.92

38.7

729

.16

37.6

548

.10

1984

28.6

539

.55

29.7

020

.89

38.6

629

.26

37.0

048

.46

1985

28.7

640

.40

29.2

920

.79

38.4

829

.39

36.4

248

.79

1986

28.6

540

.88

28.9

920

.70

38.3

929

.43

36.0

949

.21

1987

28.6

741

.30

28.7

020

.39

38.3

429

.42

35.7

849

.42

1988

28.3

541

.86

28.4

120

.21

37.9

629

.49

36.0

949

.69

1989

28.1

442

.75

28.1

920

.04

37.5

329

.62

36.3

549

.73

1990

27.9

544

.12

32.6

727

.80

18.1

319

.89

37.0

429

.68

36.6

249

.44

1991

27.6

545

.23

33.0

328

.02

18.0

919

.73

36.8

429

.94

36.6

249

.71

1992

27.5

445

.69

33.2

527

.83

18.2

119

.62

36.8

029

.95

36.8

549

.77

46.9

7

1993

27.3

646

.38

33.6

127

.62

18.3

219

.46

36.5

430

.01

36.9

349

.54

47.2

6

1994

27.0

946

.58

33.8

027

.51

18.4

319

.29

36.1

730

.16

36.8

849

.17

46.5

5

1995

26.9

046

.32

33.9

927

.36

18.4

519

.21

35.7

430

.17

36.8

048

.39

44.6

7

1996

26.5

746

.07

34.1

327

.24

18.3

519

.04

35.4

030

.24

36.6

747

.36

74.4

545

.20

1997

26.7

746

.14

33.9

927

.08

18.1

718

.92

34.9

930

.39

36.5

047

.10

61.3

145

.08

1998

26.6

845

.98

33.4

927

.05

18.0

818

.66

34.4

530

.48

36.1

947

.03

52.7

742

.39

1999

26.2

345

.74

33.1

426

.97

18.0

018

.41

33.4

730

.32

35.8

746

.39

47.4

840

.71

2000

25.9

546

.27

32.9

927

.04

17.9

218

.21

32.7

730

.76

35.5

245

.85

43.4

338

.93

2001

26.0

247

.05

32.9

627

.03

17.8

217

.96

32.0

231

.11

35.2

945

.30

40.0

839

.73

2002

25.6

346

.75

32.7

526

.99

17.6

717

.75

31.4

731

.08

35.0

344

.73

36.4

639

.43

2003

25.2

347

.05

32.3

926

.95

17.4

917

.57

31.0

130

.83

34.7

844

.55

35.5

438

.80

2004

24.8

747

.23

32.0

427

.01

17.4

117

.46

30.9

530

.84

34.5

143

.93

33.4

539

.30

2005

24.7

047

.14

31.5

726

.79

17.2

817

.31

30.9

230

.75

34.1

843

.71

31.9

639

.51

2006

24.3

647

.02

30.9

626

.63

17.1

717

.15

30.8

030

.57

33.7

943

.45

31.1

440

.47

2007

24.0

047

.00

30.4

026

.50

17.0

016

.90

30.5

030

.40

33.1

043

.00

30.1

041

.40

2008

23.6

746

.93

29.7

726

.19

16.7

916

.70

30.1

130

.18

32.3

642

.71

28.8

042

.32

2009

16.6

316

.47

38

Page 39: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1981-2

009

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

XX

Year

Cou

ntr

yE

ston

iaE

thio

pia

Fij

iF

inla

nd

Fra

nce

Gab

onG

ambia

Geo

rgia

Ger

man

yG

han

aG

reec

eG

uat

emal

a19

8139

.15

35.2

519

.63

16.5

248

.78

58.3

916

.98

35.4

628

.86

53.1

9

1982

39.0

934

.49

19.5

216

.46

47.9

658

.24

16.9

635

.98

28.8

152

.65

1983

38.7

734

.27

19.3

616

.39

47.5

458

.62

16.9

636

.77

28.8

952

.64

1984

38.5

134

.31

19.2

216

.37

47.1

458

.66

16.9

237

.72

28.9

252

.86

1985

37.9

934

.49

19.0

916

.33

47.2

058

.88

16.9

038

.15

28.9

753

.07

1986

37.7

734

.55

18.9

416

.35

46.4

859

.47

16.8

738

.39

28.9

353

.57

1987

37.4

534

.51

18.7

916

.34

46.1

559

.71

16.8

238

.79

28.7

854

.14

1988

37.1

834

.84

18.6

616

.30

46.5

759

.67

16.7

839

.30

29.0

254

.36

1989

36.5

835

.32

18.5

216

.25

46.4

857

.87

16.7

239

.60

28.9

854

.48

1990

34.0

436

.08

35.7

318

.20

16.1

246

.74

56.0

016

.69

39.7

029

.00

54.6

0

1991

33.4

836

.23

34.9

917

.92

16.0

747

.08

54.9

916

.58

39.7

428

.85

54.7

5

1992

33.0

936

.63

34.5

917

.82

15.9

747

.08

53.8

216

.38

39.3

628

.84

54.4

3

1993

32.8

536

.91

34.5

417

.85

15.7

347

.38

52.2

279

.69

16.2

039

.44

28.8

553

.70

1994

32.8

336

.94

34.2

017

.95

15.9

247

.67

50.9

980

.33

16.0

839

.66

28.9

253

.31

1995

32.8

036

.91

34.0

618

.05

15.9

147

.98

50.3

079

.44

15.9

439

.66

28.9

452

.97

1996

33.0

036

.84

33.8

518

.06

15.8

948

.23

49.2

279

.06

15.8

239

.78

28.9

752

.75

1997

33.1

236

.85

33.8

018

.08

15.8

548

.52

48.4

378

.42

15.7

539

.61

28.8

252

.76

1998

32.8

936

.88

33.8

518

.07

15.8

847

.57

48.1

677

.16

15.6

939

.24

28.9

452

.45

1999

32.6

236

.81

33.2

818

.01

15.8

346

.35

47.9

775

.42

15.5

539

.05

28.7

951

.63

2000

32.6

336

.80

32.9

017

.96

15.6

146

.74

47.7

973

.75

15.4

438

.87

28.5

050

.97

2001

32.4

736

.87

32.9

217

.84

15.5

146

.74

47.2

772

.60

15.3

439

.00

28.1

350

.34

2002

32.1

136

.69

33.0

617

.69

15.4

046

.78

46.6

770

.82

15.2

738

.97

27.9

049

.77

2003

31.9

036

.32

32.9

517

.56

15.2

846

.89

46.4

369

.85

15.2

439

.08

27.7

249

.13

2004

31.3

636

.57

32.6

817

.43

15.2

647

.04

46.1

067

.90

15.2

638

.85

27.3

948

.65

2005

30.7

936

.28

32.5

717

.33

15.1

847

.16

45.0

465

.91

15.3

139

.34

26.9

248

.46

2006

30.3

635

.77

32.5

117

.15

15.0

747

.28

42.7

964

.40

15.3

338

.93

26.7

648

.35

2007

29.5

035

.10

32.6

017

.00

14.7

047

.30

40.9

062

.10

15.3

038

.30

26.5

047

.90

2008

28.7

034

.26

32.8

616

.79

14.6

347

.37

39.2

659

.93

15.2

337

.42

26.1

647

.39

2009

16.5

314

.26

15.1

425

.85

39

Page 40: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1981-2

009

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

XX

Year

Cou

ntr

yG

uin

eaG

uin

ea-

Bis

sau

Guya

na

Hai

tiH

ondura

sH

ong

Kon

gH

unga

ryIc

elan

dIn

dia

Indon

esia

Iran

Irel

and

1981

49.5

443

.62

30.7

458

.67

53.5

121

.84

28.2

517

.74

30.2

524

.82

17.3

319

.62

1982

49.4

043

.64

30.6

457

.54

53.5

021

.09

28.0

317

.59

29.8

624

.04

17.5

419

.33

1983

49.3

043

.47

30.7

856

.80

54.0

120

.56

27.8

517

.34

29.5

823

.31

17.5

719

.11

1984

49.4

343

.31

31.2

456

.05

54.3

820

.23

27.7

517

.37

29.3

722

.71

17.5

718

.94

1985

49.7

143

.43

31.5

755

.30

54.5

819

.77

27.6

617

.31

29.1

322

.17

17.6

618

.81

1986

49.7

643

.30

31.7

554

.55

54.5

919

.56

27.6

017

.27

28.7

721

.94

17.8

918

.71

1987

49.4

143

.45

32.1

254

.09

55.0

119

.29

27.5

117

.38

28.4

621

.48

18.0

018

.68

1988

48.9

543

.31

32.3

853

.72

54.9

318

.92

27.2

817

.13

28.1

721

.12

18.0

318

.65

1989

48.3

542

.83

32.9

253

.66

54.5

318

.45

27.2

016

.91

27.7

620

.79

18.1

618

.58

1990

47.9

942

.57

33.1

753

.50

54.3

618

.15

27.1

016

.81

27.3

920

.47

18.2

518

.53

1991

47.1

142

.35

33.9

254

.32

54.1

317

.86

27.0

117

.00

26.9

620

.12

18.2

518

.36

1992

46.3

742

.57

33.6

354

.28

53.6

517

.50

27.1

516

.90

26.7

219

.76

18.0

618

.25

1993

45.7

040

.39

33.5

355

.00

53.0

717

.16

27.1

316

.87

26.4

119

.44

17.8

918

.27

1994

45.0

839

.79

33.1

855

.67

51.9

216

.96

27.0

716

.91

26.1

919

.13

17.9

518

.29

1995

44.5

739

.67

33.3

356

.47

51.0

116

.68

26.9

416

.98

25.8

118

.79

18.1

118

.26

1996

44.0

739

.63

33.2

356

.52

50.3

016

.32

26.8

116

.98

25.3

318

.42

18.2

018

.15

1997

43.4

139

.35

33.0

156

.71

49.8

216

.04

26.5

816

.91

24.9

918

.05

18.2

017

.92

1998

42.8

939

.31

33.0

956

.92

49.1

315

.64

26.3

416

.93

24.6

117

.66

18.1

917

.73

1999

42.6

239

.38

33.2

357

.02

48.5

015

.37

26.0

516

.70

24.2

617

.81

18.2

117

.45

2000

42.2

639

.22

33.1

057

.03

47.7

415

.33

25.6

816

.56

23.8

317

.90

18.1

617

.11

2001

41.8

439

.64

33.6

557

.00

47.1

515

.17

25.2

116

.32

23.5

317

.96

18.1

116

.74

2002

41.7

939

.61

33.7

257

.01

46.8

215

.07

24.8

816

.09

23.2

517

.98

18.0

716

.46

2003

41.8

140

.16

33.7

657

.05

46.6

014

.98

24.6

516

.03

22.9

318

.05

18.0

016

.20

2004

41.4

040

.53

33.9

557

.07

46.3

414

.89

24.3

615

.91

22.5

318

.07

17.8

615

.98

2005

40.8

540

.90

34.0

457

.07

45.8

714

.81

24.1

115

.78

22.0

618

.05

17.6

815

.85

2006

39.9

741

.26

34.2

157

.14

45.4

914

.75

23.8

915

.49

21.3

917

.97

17.4

915

.63

2007

39.2

041

.60

34.0

057

.10

45.1

014

.70

23.7

015

.00

20.7

017

.90

17.3

015

.40

2008

38.5

141

.44

33.8

857

.05

44.4

414

.55

23.5

114

.60

20.0

017

.82

16.9

515

.12

2009

23.3

114

.34

14.9

4

40

Page 41: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1981-2

009

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

XX

Year

Cou

ntr

yIs

rael

Ital

yJam

aica

Jap

anJor

dan

Kaz

a-khst

anK

enya

Kor

eaR

epublic

Kuw

ait

Kyrg

yzs

-ta

nL

aos

Lat

via

1981

24.0

632

.25

37.5

212

.74

18.9

730

.53

44.8

847

.59

1982

24.1

031

.98

37.7

612

.58

18.0

230

.35

44.0

247

.67

1983

24.0

331

.80

37.8

512

.46

17.5

430

.41

43.0

647

.51

1984

23.8

531

.73

37.9

212

.35

17.2

230

.65

41.8

947

.69

1985

23.7

131

.54

37.8

512

.26

16.8

630

.79

40.9

548

.58

1986

23.9

131

.38

37.7

612

.14

16.9

230

.82

40.1

217

.10

48.0

9

1987

23.7

831

.17

37.9

512

.02

16.9

330

.96

39.4

316

.95

47.7

9

1988

23.8

430

.93

37.8

511

.91

16.8

230

.98

38.4

316

.73

46.8

8

1989

23.9

030

.63

37.6

411

.76

16.7

930

.94

37.4

516

.72

45.9

2

1990

23.8

930

.39

37.2

211

.60

17.1

930

.86

36.3

416

.51

46.5

0

1991

23.9

230

.07

36.8

911

.43

17.3

930

.87

35.1

815

.09

47.6

2

1992

23.5

929

.72

36.7

711

.26

17.9

031

.00

33.8

417

.35

47.1

6

1993

23.2

929

.21

36.1

411

.11

18.0

243

.78

31.2

232

.80

18.4

139

.48

46.3

835

.17

1994

23.0

529

.08

35.6

611

.00

17.8

943

.06

31.3

332

.04

18.3

539

.64

45.7

135

.07

1995

22.7

528

.98

35.2

110

.90

17.7

142

.05

31.3

931

.15

18.4

339

.61

44.8

234

.85

1996

22.3

728

.80

34.7

810

.82

17.6

042

.11

31.3

730

.28

18.7

939

.33

43.6

734

.77

1997

21.9

428

.67

34.4

110

.74

17.4

242

.38

31.3

129

.36

18.8

439

.19

43.5

834

.65

1998

21.6

528

.54

34.0

810

.64

17.2

842

.59

31.1

828

.42

18.9

939

.23

42.1

334

.26

1999

21.4

528

.38

34.0

310

.57

17.3

842

.75

30.9

428

.35

19.0

039

.29

39.2

533

.48

2000

21.2

728

.19

33.9

610

.53

17.2

942

.84

30.8

028

.09

19.0

839

.09

37.2

632

.78

2001

21.0

127

.96

33.8

410

.47

17.2

842

.82

30.5

927

.64

19.2

338

.93

36.0

332

.27

2002

20.7

727

.75

33.5

610

.41

17.3

242

.54

30.3

527

.33

19.2

438

.84

34.4

631

.66

2003

20.7

327

.53

33.3

010

.39

17.3

742

.13

30.3

426

.89

19.2

039

.10

32.6

630

.80

2004

20.7

827

.36

33.1

310

.37

17.4

341

.58

30.2

626

.57

19.0

239

.30

31.1

229

.92

2005

20.7

927

.13

32.9

210

.35

17.2

740

.90

30.1

526

.25

18.6

639

.51

29.8

428

.90

2006

20.7

427

.00

32.7

710

.33

17.2

439

.84

29.9

225

.92

18.2

639

.37

28.5

828

.11

2007

20.7

026

.80

32.5

010

.30

17.2

038

.40

29.5

025

.60

17.8

038

.80

28.0

027

.20

2008

20.6

826

.65

32.3

010

.26

17.1

337

.01

28.9

525

.26

17.0

438

.18

26.4

826

.36

2009

26.4

310

.22

24.9

0

41

Page 42: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1981-2

009

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

yL

eban

onL

esot

ho

Lib

eria

Lib

yaL

ithuan

iaL

uxem

-b

ourg

Mac

aoM

aced

o-nia

Mad

agas

-ca

rM

alaw

iM

alay

sia

1981

30.0

442

.14

27.6

811

.41

14.8

536

.69

35.0

945

.13

1982

29.4

341

.30

27.6

811

.36

14.6

836

.96

35.1

643

.66

1983

29.5

840

.80

27.8

011

.30

14.6

037

.37

35.2

542

.20

1984

29.6

440

.70

28.0

011

.29

14.3

937

.76

35.2

330

.97

1985

30.0

740

.29

28.3

011

.27

14.1

838

.10

35.0

439

.78

1986

29.6

839

.72

28.6

127

.68

11.3

013

.98

38.7

134

.77

39.2

9

1987

28.9

439

.56

29.1

327

.20

11.2

513

.78

39.1

135

.16

39.1

1

1988

27.9

539

.41

29.6

427

.27

11.1

713

.55

39.3

935

.87

39.0

7

1989

27.7

938

.72

30.1

227

.48

11.0

413

.26

39.3

836

.42

38.8

6

1990

27.7

937

.57

29.8

327

.58

10.9

313

.03

34.4

839

.32

36.6

038

.45

1991

28.6

936

.14

29.7

927

.69

10.8

212

.83

34.4

739

.23

37.4

037

.97

1992

30.0

234

.60

30.6

128

.14

10.6

412

.57

34.6

539

.75

37.1

136

.91

1993

30.4

233

.51

31.5

428

.63

36.3

310

.54

12.0

934

.97

40.0

037

.00

36.0

8

1994

30.4

332

.68

32.2

628

.85

36.3

010

.45

11.6

935

.19

40.2

336

.37

35.0

6

1995

30.4

231

.98

33.0

629

.10

36.3

810

.36

11.4

335

.36

40.5

436

.74

34.0

0

1996

30.1

031

.37

34.0

229

.41

36.3

510

.32

11.5

035

.31

40.8

437

.07

32.8

2

1997

29.9

830

.72

35.3

829

.76

36.0

910

.27

11.3

935

.28

40.9

637

.42

31.8

5

1998

29.9

530

.13

36.8

629

.96

35.5

110

.22

11.3

135

.15

41.0

637

.77

30.7

0

1999

30.0

429

.79

37.9

930

.45

34.9

510

.14

11.2

835

.06

41.0

138

.12

30.6

1

2000

30.3

629

.48

38.6

330

.91

34.4

410

.05

11.2

835

.10

40.9

438

.47

30.8

0

2001

30.6

829

.27

39.4

930

.86

33.9

99.

9611

.44

34.8

640

.62

38.7

230

.50

2002

30.9

829

.11

40.4

731

.14

33.4

99.

8411

.52

34.9

740

.34

38.6

130

.38

2003

31.2

228

.95

41.5

331

.21

33.1

79.

7411

.58

35.0

640

.40

38.8

930

.20

2004

31.4

328

.84

42.0

931

.28

32.1

09.

6511

.67

34.8

040

.16

39.0

430

.10

2005

31.6

428

.55

42.6

931

.27

31.1

29.

5711

.63

34.8

939

.61

39.4

729

.90

2006

31.7

028

.74

43.4

731

.08

30.3

89.

4711

.45

34.9

739

.20

39.4

229

.80

2007

32.0

028

.80

44.2

030

.90

29.7

09.

4011

.10

34.9

038

.50

39.4

029

.60

2008

32.3

628

.71

43.9

530

.69

28.8

29.

1310

.65

34.4

937

.47

39.6

929

.34

2009

9.96

42

Page 43: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1981-2

009

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

yM

aldiv

esM

ali

Mal

taM

auri

ta-

nia

Mau

ritu

sM

exic

oM

oldov

aM

ongo

lia

Mor

occ

oM

ozam

-biq

ue

Nam

ibia

1981

48.3

948

.62

35.8

531

.91

28.5

331

.38

16.2

339

.57

43.0

528

.19

1982

47.3

847

.78

34.9

231

.46

28.3

930

.63

15.7

939

.03

42.8

227

.74

1983

46.6

647

.42

33.6

131

.08

28.5

230

.33

15.4

138

.52

42.5

827

.78

1984

45.7

747

.47

32.8

530

.70

28.7

130

.44

15.1

538

.37

43.3

527

.96

1985

44.5

647

.07

32.1

830

.62

28.7

530

.51

15.0

138

.16

43.8

728

.14

1986

43.4

446

.91

31.7

230

.93

28.7

530

.46

14.8

237

.85

44.6

428

.63

1987

42.3

746

.19

31.4

431

.16

28.5

730

.65

14.5

937

.70

45.0

329

.58

1988

41.3

845

.72

31.1

631

.38

28.1

830

.78

14.4

737

.62

45.1

930

.10

1989

40.4

245

.05

30.6

631

.78

27.5

730

.84

14.3

537

.62

45.0

330

.55

1990

39.5

144

.48

30.2

631

.89

27.1

630

.88

14.1

537

.41

44.9

431

.07

1991

38.6

143

.89

29.6

232

.17

26.5

632

.09

14.6

536

.81

44.8

330

.31

1992

37.7

343

.76

29.0

632

.28

26.2

132

.00

44.2

514

.89

36.6

144

.73

30.5

8

1993

36.8

943

.06

28.8

633

.20

25.8

131

.80

43.3

615

.12

36.4

044

.77

30.3

7

1994

36.0

442

.74

28.4

733

.73

25.4

331

.67

42.8

715

.26

36.3

244

.61

30.8

3

1995

35.3

942

.23

28.1

334

.32

25.0

031

.42

43.1

115

.45

36.3

644

.92

30.7

9

1996

35.1

541

.80

27.7

434

.85

24.8

031

.59

43.5

715

.79

36.3

244

.54

30.8

7

1997

34.4

441

.59

27.3

935

.04

24.6

731

.68

43.8

016

.02

36.3

344

.35

30.6

8

1998

33.7

441

.38

27.0

335

.44

24.2

631

.43

44.2

416

.13

36.2

344

.02

30.8

3

1999

33.1

041

.13

26.7

835

.33

23.8

730

.97

44.8

716

.28

35.9

843

.32

30.6

0

2000

32.5

741

.50

26.5

835

.44

23.5

030

.67

45.3

516

.43

35.6

441

.69

30.5

0

2001

32.4

041

.83

26.3

535

.74

23.0

630

.19

45.6

516

.54

35.1

840

.69

30.5

3

2002

32.2

441

.50

26.4

035

.06

22.9

229

.96

45.7

616

.75

34.8

940

.14

30.2

3

2003

32.3

641

.38

26.5

634

.61

22.6

229

.69

45.7

617

.03

34.8

439

.55

30.0

4

2004

31.8

640

.80

26.5

534

.88

22.3

229

.68

45.6

117

.19

34.5

139

.18

29.4

1

2005

30.8

440

.82

26.7

133

.11

22.0

329

.44

45.2

017

.20

33.9

238

.99

29.0

8

2006

29.4

740

.37

26.6

031

.44

21.9

729

.16

44.9

816

.89

33.5

138

.69

28.9

2

2007

28.6

039

.90

26.5

031

.10

21.9

028

.80

44.5

016

.40

33.1

038

.40

28.5

0

2008

27.6

239

.41

26.3

231

.39

21.8

528

.49

43.9

415

.81

32.5

838

.13

28.0

2

2009

28.1

09

43

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Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1981-2

009

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

yN

epal

Net

her

-la

nds

New

Zea

land

Nic

arag

ua

Nig

erN

iger

iaN

orw

ayO

man

Pak

ista

nP

anam

aP

apua

New

Guin

ea19

8152

.05

14.5

013

.69

41.1

936

.07

45.4

320

.57

24.0

539

.17

67.2

742

.01

1982

51.1

114

.50

13.6

640

.48

35.8

044

.46

20.4

523

.33

38.7

066

.45

41.3

2

1983

50.3

414

.47

13.5

939

.99

35.6

244

.16

20.3

122

.53

38.0

765

.77

40.5

8

1984

49.5

914

.46

13.5

239

.49

36.0

544

.37

20.2

621

.87

37.5

966

.34

39.9

6

1985

48.9

014

.41

13.4

339

.08

36.8

645

.07

20.1

521

.38

37.0

467

.17

39.6

4

1986

47.8

514

.35

13.8

838

.92

37.2

145

.70

20.1

220

.62

36.5

567

.42

39.8

1

1987

47.2

314

.52

13.7

938

.77

37.5

546

.36

19.9

320

.12

36.1

767

.57

39.8

7

1988

46.5

714

.50

13.6

839

.50

37.6

047

.25

19.7

520

.14

35.7

468

.04

39.8

2

1989

45.9

314

.43

13.5

740

.21

36.1

848

.24

19.5

720

.27

35.4

169

.69

39.3

6

1990

45.2

014

.36

13.5

040

.56

35.7

549

.04

19.4

720

.43

35.0

871

.32

39.4

1

1991

44.8

214

.28

13.4

141

.99

36.2

749

.57

19.4

020

.70

35.0

671

.16

39.3

9

1992

44.2

514

.20

13.4

342

.60

36.4

650

.09

19.4

120

.85

34.5

371

.14

39.0

7

1993

43.6

614

.06

13.4

543

.03

37.0

750

.65

19.4

320

.94

34.1

170

.23

39.1

2

1994

43.0

014

.03

13.4

443

.64

37.5

551

.06

19.4

620

.85

33.8

569

.01

39.5

2

1995

42.3

414

.02

13.3

743

.96

37.9

851

.56

19.4

820

.90

33.4

267

.82

39.4

8

1996

41.5

613

.97

13.2

844

.18

38.5

652

.33

19.4

720

.95

33.2

966

.27

39.2

6

1997

40.6

913

.90

13.1

544

.27

38.8

352

.98

19.4

621

.14

33.2

064

.93

38.5

4

1998

40.0

213

.79

13.0

244

.09

39.1

753

.51

19.3

220

.69

33.1

963

.82

38.4

2

1999

39.4

713

.67

12.9

343

.87

39.2

654

.07

19.0

620

.00

33.3

062

.47

38.3

8

2000

39.2

613

.56

12.8

143

.27

39.6

854

.66

18.9

119

.63

33.4

661

.37

38.3

6

2001

38.7

113

.43

12.7

343

.07

40.1

755

.01

18.7

419

.46

33.5

760

.62

37.9

2

2002

38.3

913

.32

12.6

743

.00

40.2

356

.51

18.6

519

.23

33.5

660

.50

37.4

1

2003

38.0

413

.23

12.5

543

.04

39.9

457

.91

18.5

419

.01

33.6

460

.59

37.1

9

2004

37.4

613

.18

12.4

243

.13

39.7

358

.83

18.4

818

.66

33.7

260

.53

36.9

8

2005

36.8

113

.13

12.2

743

.07

39.8

557

.72

18.3

617

.89

33.9

160

.23

36.7

9

2006

36.3

913

.06

12.1

243

.09

39.1

656

.14

18.2

017

.64

33.8

159

.77

36.5

8

2007

36.0

013

.00

12.0

043

.10

38.5

052

.80

18.0

017

.30

33.6

059

.40

36.5

0

2008

35.6

312

.91

11.8

543

.00

37.1

449

.64

17.8

116

.80

33.1

058

.65

36.0

9

2009

12.7

911

.75

17.5

1

44

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Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1981-2

009

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

yP

arag

uay

Per

uP

hilip

-pin

esP

olan

dP

ortu

gal

Quat

arR

oman

iaR

uss

ian

Fed

era-

tion

Rw

anda

Sau

di

Ara

bia

Sen

egal

1981

41.4

354

.45

41.9

131

.10

30.2

731

.86

44.1

254

.79

1982

39.9

653

.69

41.2

930

.75

29.6

931

.23

43.6

955

.02

1983

39.2

253

.30

40.7

230

.66

29.4

030

.68

42.8

954

.75

1984

38.9

353

.77

40.1

030

.54

29.1

030

.16

41.9

854

.35

1985

38.6

454

.29

40.1

530

.41

29.0

529

.67

40.7

054

.20

1986

38.3

955

.00

40.7

730

.23

29.0

922

.73

29.2

839

.71

18.4

454

.37

1987

38.1

255

.15

41.2

429

.99

29.0

922

.75

28.9

139

.27

18.4

054

.07

1988

37.8

655

.12

41.3

629

.74

28.8

523

.03

28.6

438

.51

18.5

653

.77

1989

37.5

555

.13

41.3

129

.49

28.4

123

.18

28.4

837

.96

18.4

653

.36

1990

37.2

155

.94

41.1

429

.29

28.3

023

.36

28.4

337

.85

38.0

518

.37

53.3

9

1991

36.7

456

.48

40.8

029

.29

27.6

523

.21

28.3

636

.55

38.2

118

.33

53.0

0

1992

36.3

556

.86

40.8

429

.43

27.1

123

.23

28.5

435

.45

38.2

518

.33

52.8

7

1993

36.1

257

.22

40.6

729

.60

26.6

922

.97

28.7

935

.27

38.2

818

.28

52.4

4

1994

35.9

157

.41

40.4

929

.74

26.5

223

.01

29.0

335

.41

36.7

418

.08

51.3

8

1995

35.7

257

.10

40.3

829

.78

26.1

822

.80

29.3

535

.70

37.2

218

.09

51.4

7

1996

35.5

456

.39

40.1

529

.69

25.8

722

.16

29.6

536

.03

38.9

418

.02

51.2

2

1997

35.3

955

.96

39.8

129

.46

25.6

321

.59

29.9

736

.55

40.4

918

.01

50.6

7

1998

35.2

655

.33

39.4

329

.07

25.4

820

.84

30.2

037

.11

41.0

818

.07

49.6

6

1999

35.4

254

.78

39.2

628

.57

25.0

520

.50

30.5

537

.79

41.2

718

.07

48.7

7

2000

35.4

654

.52

39.0

928

.13

24.6

320

.61

30.8

338

.53

41.5

317

.67

47.5

9

2001

35.7

454

.46

38.9

927

.68

24.2

720

.52

31.0

039

.09

41.4

617

.57

46.3

7

2002

35.9

354

.55

38.8

527

.37

23.9

120

.08

30.6

739

.55

41.3

417

.56

45.2

7

2003

36.2

554

.59

38.7

727

.12

23.6

319

.91

30.6

539

.95

41.1

417

.54

44.8

0

2004

36.5

154

.56

38.6

826

.97

23.4

519

.05

30.7

640

.25

40.8

717

.39

43.9

3

2005

36.7

554

.43

38.4

226

.72

23.3

018

.40

30.5

340

.48

40.5

117

.27

43.2

3

2006

36.9

554

.26

38.3

426

.39

23.1

417

.14

30.5

540

.62

39.8

217

.03

42.3

4

2007

37.1

053

.70

38.3

026

.00

23.0

016

.74

30.2

040

.60

39.0

016

.80

41.7

0

2008

37.1

952

.76

38.1

725

.50

22.8

416

.11

29.6

040

.25

37.9

716

.61

40.8

5

2009

25.9

622

.62

45

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Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1981-2

009

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

ySie

rra

Leo

ne

Sin

gap

ore

Slo

vakia

Slo

venia

Sol

omon

Isla

nds

Sou

thA

fric

aSpai

nSri

Lan

kaSudan

Suri

nam

eSw

azilan

d

1981

39.9

217

.31

34.0

125

.54

27.2

552

.25

33.9

841

.76

44.3

8

1982

39.6

617

.03

33.4

025

.05

27.1

651

.44

33.3

941

.98

43.6

1

1983

39.4

216

.59

32.7

525

.03

27.1

250

.78

33.2

842

.80

42.9

7

1984

39.3

016

.16

32.8

124

.93

27.0

750

.16

33.4

143

.50

42.5

7

1985

39.4

515

.54

32.3

624

.84

26.9

849

.67

33.7

744

.28

41.9

6

1986

39.4

815

.22

31.5

624

.90

26.8

549

.20

34.1

444

.73

41.6

7

1987

39.5

115

.10

19.0

231

.23

25.0

726

.79

49.0

134

.34

44.8

241

.90

1988

39.8

514

.98

18.7

531

.34

25.3

126

.59

48.7

734

.37

45.2

442

.34

1989

39.5

814

.96

18.4

830

.53

25.4

426

.22

48.7

134

.49

45.9

141

.95

1990

39.3

214

.87

18.2

527

.68

30.6

325

.48

25.8

548

.70

34.6

846

.38

41.3

2

1991

39.2

214

.68

17.7

627

.76

30.9

325

.68

25.4

848

.58

34.8

546

.39

41.1

3

1992

39.0

914

.54

17.6

127

.92

30.6

525

.85

25.1

648

.41

35.0

646

.53

41.0

1

1993

38.6

114

.31

17.6

528

.13

30.8

026

.11

24.9

948

.29

35.1

146

.37

40.0

8

1994

39.4

014

.04

17.7

428

.79

31.3

926

.40

24.8

747

.95

35.3

146

.13

39.5

3

1995

38.7

213

.80

17.8

628

.85

31.0

426

.51

24.6

947

.37

35.4

945

.14

39.2

8

1996

39.0

713

.63

17.9

228

.54

31.1

326

.44

24.5

647

.13

35.1

545

.31

39.1

2

1997

39.2

113

.37

17.8

028

.40

31.2

626

.39

24.4

246

.82

35.3

145

.04

38.7

2

1998

39.9

312

.93

17.6

428

.17

31.2

326

.38

24.2

046

.99

35.2

145

.10

38.5

9

1999

40.5

712

.80

17.5

427

.72

31.3

226

.33

23.9

446

.26

34.1

044

.61

38.4

0

2000

41.4

812

.66

17.5

127

.17

31.5

726

.30

23.7

745

.57

33.6

842

.95

38.6

0

2001

41.9

012

.35

17.5

226

.74

31.8

926

.25

23.4

345

.09

33.1

941

.81

38.5

4

2002

47.8

412

.25

17.3

926

.45

32.2

426

.21

23.2

544

.93

31.9

240

.65

38.2

3

2003

52.4

512

.16

17.3

026

.01

32.3

926

.13

23.0

844

.70

28.9

439

.45

38.2

0

2004

51.0

812

.32

17.3

025

.86

32.5

425

.96

22.8

744

.25

27.7

438

.25

38.1

6

2005

48.4

212

.28

17.1

625

.45

32.2

625

.73

22.6

743

.62

26.7

037

.06

37.9

3

2006

47.4

612

.26

16.9

825

.08

32.4

625

.50

22.4

543

.11

25.1

735

.86

38.2

0

2007

42.9

012

.20

16.8

024

.70

32.7

025

.20

22.2

042

.20

23.9

935

.10

38.5

0

2008

39.1

512

.13

16.5

724

.11

31.6

724

.87

22.0

141

.31

22.9

734

.25

38.8

9

2009

16.3

421

.87

46

Page 47: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1981-2

009

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

ySw

eden

Sw

itze

r-la

nd

Syri

aT

aiw

anT

aji

kis

tan

Tan

zania

Thai

land

Tog

oT

rinid

adan

dT

obag

oT

unis

iaT

urk

ey

1981

20.1

18.

9119

.99

39.2

965

.95

70.9

726

.66

33.0

338

.56

41.6

1

1982

20.1

18.

8619

.55

38.2

465

.85

70.0

426

.64

32.1

237

.88

41.1

4

1983

20.1

18.

8319

.19

37.7

265

.85

69.3

226

.86

31.5

337

.30

40.8

8

1984

20.1

18.

8218

.84

37.1

866

.49

68.1

827

.18

31.0

637

.14

40.7

2

1985

20.0

68.

7918

.65

36.5

467

.00

67.1

727

.72

30.7

536

.59

40.4

6

1986

19.9

18.

7718

.46

36.3

367

.04

66.4

527

.92

30.5

836

.30

40.2

0

1987

19.8

38.

7318

.43

36.0

166

.96

65.9

728

.18

30.5

636

.28

39.8

6

1988

19.7

48.

7018

.64

35.1

966

.25

65.1

728

.70

30.7

536

.43

38.9

6

1989

19.6

28.

6618

.76

34.2

365

.31

63.8

928

.98

31.1

536

.80

38.4

3

1990

19.4

38.

6219

.05

33.2

264

.19

62.1

828

.97

31.7

237

.11

37.7

7

1991

19.1

88.

6319

.24

32.4

562

.35

59.7

828

.98

31.8

437

.15

37.1

1

1992

19.0

38.

5519

.46

31.7

461

.28

57.4

829

.48

32.1

737

.32

36.5

6

1993

18.9

08.

5119

.51

30.8

537

.58

60.5

155

.46

29.7

632

.26

37.1

835

.54

1994

18.9

58.

4819

.58

30.0

735

.77

60.2

853

.58

30.4

833

.00

37.0

535

.02

1995

18.9

78.

4219

.52

29.2

735

.02

60.0

352

.08

31.0

033

.40

37.1

734

.77

1996

18.9

18.

3719

.41

28.5

034

.68

60.1

450

.50

31.4

034

.03

37.2

834

.20

1997

18.8

38.

3219

.33

27.8

734

.87

60.1

649

.10

31.8

133

.93

37.2

433

.58

1998

18.7

58.

3019

.30

27.1

835

.74

60.2

348

.33

32.0

633

.54

37.1

433

.02

1999

18.6

88.

2419

.27

26.5

536

.30

60.1

048

.62

32.2

733

.17

36.9

932

.53

2000

18.6

18.

2119

.26

26.0

237

.24

59.9

648

.98

32.5

633

.31

36.7

831

.96

2001

18.4

88.

1919

.27

25.4

538

.01

59.7

649

.18

32.8

333

.29

36.5

531

.56

2002

18.3

58.

1719

.22

25.3

338

.75

59.3

049

.32

33.2

033

.06

36.1

931

.61

2003

18.2

78.

1519

.08

25.0

139

.40

58.5

249

.37

33.4

433

.12

36.0

231

.36

2004

18.1

88.

1318

.90

24.7

839

.93

57.7

649

.28

33.8

033

.09

35.8

031

.20

2005

18.1

58.

1118

.74

24.4

540

.42

56.3

948

.98

33.9

933

.18

35.5

530

.82

2006

18.0

18.

1118

.41

24.1

440

.79

55.1

148

.49

34.2

231

.94

35.5

830

.26

2007

17.9

08.

1018

.50

23.9

041

.00

53.7

048

.20

34.5

031

.50

35.4

029

.10

2008

17.6

58.

0818

.40

23.6

540

.97

52.5

247

.90

34.7

131

.27

35.2

728

.63

2009

17.3

88.

0723

.51

27.6

8

47

Page 48: Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimatesideas.econ.boun.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/201205.pdf · Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates Ceyhun Elginy Bogazici

Shadow

Eco

nom

yE

stim

ate

s1981-2

009

XX

XX

XX

XXX

XXX

Year

Cou

ntr

yU

ganda

Ukra

ine

Unit

edA

rab

Em

irat

es

Unit

edK

ingd

omU

nit

edSta

tes

Uru

guay

Ven

ezuel

aV

ietn

amY

emen

Zam

bia

Zim

bab

we

1981

55.4

814

.80

10.7

049

.72

27.2

725

.66

37.6

366

.51

1982

55.3

114

.81

10.6

048

.90

27.3

325

.54

38.1

765

.39

1983

54.9

914

.78

10.5

748

.53

27.4

225

.39

39.1

364

.66

1984

54.7

514

.78

10.5

548

.77

27.8

925

.22

39.9

265

.46

1985

54.8

014

.72

10.4

249

.13

28.2

025

.00

40.8

865

.99

1986

54.7

126

.04

14.6

310

.32

49.6

228

.48

24.7

741

.62

66.1

5

1987

54.4

325

.56

14.5

810

.23

49.9

628

.71

24.5

942

.47

65.9

8

1988

53.7

025

.34

14.5

110

.14

50.1

228

.84

24.3

543

.43

66.7

4

1989

53.0

325

.27

14.3

510

.07

50.3

528

.98

24.1

434

.38

43.9

766

.01

1990

52.4

425

.23

14.1

79.

9950

.67

29.5

124

.06

34.0

044

.57

66.1

8

1991

51.9

225

.12

13.9

99.

9050

.89

29.9

823

.66

33.6

944

.88

65.8

4

1992

51.4

625

.04

13.9

09.

8750

.89

30.1

323

.42

33.8

145

.99

65.1

6

1993

51.1

445

.05

24.9

613

.82

9.81

50.5

530

.08

22.8

833

.21

47.7

464

.75

1994

50.8

443

.89

24.9

313

.74

9.76

50.0

630

.25

21.9

832

.97

48.2

565

.60

1995

49.8

143

.18

24.7

813

.64

9.66

49.4

830

.58

21.1

532

.69

49.0

663

.38

1996

48.6

343

.54

24.6

113

.55

9.57

48.8

830

.74

20.3

332

.07

49.5

162

.25

1997

47.7

043

.91

24.4

413

.46

9.49

48.4

230

.92

19.5

031

.09

50.1

462

.22

1998

46.8

244

.81

24.2

213

.33

9.36

47.9

030

.90

18.8

030

.00

50.7

962

.14

1999

45.9

645

.55

24.1

013

.19

9.22

47.1

830

.86

18.1

729

.31

51.3

361

.36

2000

45.2

246

.26

23.9

913

.04

9.10

46.7

531

.00

17.6

129

.08

51.8

661

.32

2001

44.6

846

.76

23.9

212

.89

8.94

46.5

931

.00

17.1

628

.73

51.7

160

.59

2002

44.1

546

.88

23.8

512

.76

8.83

46.5

030

.96

16.6

728

.37

51.6

860

.31

2003

43.5

746

.77

23.8

012

.63

8.75

47.0

031

.25

16.1

828

.25

51.2

261

.49

2004

42.8

746

.75

23.6

912

.50

8.67

47.3

531

.70

15.7

127

.96

50.6

562

.61

2005

42.1

046

.90

23.5

612

.43

8.59

47.4

531

.74

15.2

727

.81

47.6

561

.21

2006

41.1

946

.97

23.3

312

.34

8.50

46.8

131

.52

14.8

427

.17

45.4

762

.38

2007

40.3

046

.80

23.0

012

.20

8.40

46.1

030

.90

14.4

026

.80

43.9

062

.70

2008

39.3

846

.18

21.8

612

.02

8.32

45.2

530

.19

13.8

926

.47

42.0

862

.75

2009

11.9

48.

24

48