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Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs Joel Romero Luna Catherine Tyler MIC June 28, 2017

Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

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Page 1: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Short Run Marginal Costs and

VOM Costs

Joel Romero Luna

Catherine Tyler

MIC

June 28, 2017

Page 2: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Market Power Mitigation

• Market power mitigation is the sole purpose of

cost-based offers in PJM.

• Competitive prices are the goal of market power

mitigation.

• Competitive prices = short run marginal cost.

©2017 www.monitoringanalytics.com

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Page 3: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Short Run Marginal Cost

• In a competitive market,

• Sellers cannot strategically change the market

price,

• Sellers are always most profitable when selling all

output with SRMC < Price,

• Any deviation, more or less, reduces profitability.

©2017 www.monitoringanalytics.com

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Page 4: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Profit Max Graphically

Page 5: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Profit Max Graphically

Page 6: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Profit Max Graphically

Page 7: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Profit Max in Slopes

Page 8: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Profit Max in Slopes

Page 9: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Deviation from Profit Max Solution

Page 10: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Deviation from Profit Max Solution

Page 11: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Deviation from Profit Max Solution

Page 12: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Deviation from Profit Max Solution

Page 13: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Short Run

• Most costs are fixed, not marginal, in the short

run.

• In the market time frame, day to day, hour to

hour, a generator cannot

• build a plant,

• arrange firm fuel delivery contracts,

• hire a new worker,

• repair a tube leak,

• change a turbine blade.

©2017 www.monitoringanalytics.com

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Page 14: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Market Power Incentives

• Market power creates the ability and incentive to

raise price above SRMC.

• Market power mitigation uses SRMC to replace

the price offer in the presence of market power.

• A competitive outcome cannot be expected with

market power unless cost offer = SRMC.

• Every generator in PJM has an incentive to define

cost offers exceeding SRMC to create offer

flexibility for the scenario where they have market

power. ©2017 www.monitoringanalytics.com

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Page 15: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Inefficient Consequences

Exercises of market power have unnecessary,

inefficient market consequences relative to an

efficient market outcome:

• Higher prices

• Higher congestion costs

• Higher uplift costs

• Higher make whole payments

• Uneconomic commitments to relieve constraints

• Lower prices on the opposite side of constraints

©2017 www.monitoringanalytics.com

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Page 16: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

VOM Costs

• Only short run marginal costs should be included

in cost offers.

• Some operating costs are short run marginal

costs. Examples of eligible short run marginal

operating costs are water, water chemistry,

emission control reagents and lubricants.

• Maintenance costs are avoidable costs, and not

marginal costs, including repairs, inspections,

overhauls, or routine maintenance.

©2017 www.monitoringanalytics.com

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Page 17: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

VOM Costs

• The method used by maintenance providers and

manufacturers to charge for maintenance related

services does not change the nature of the cost.

• For example, LTSA costs charged in $ per hour or

$ per peak fired hours

• The costs remain not short run marginal costs.

The costs are incurred to maintain the availability

of the unit.

©2017 www.monitoringanalytics.com

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Page 18: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

VOM Costs

• This issue is exacerbated by the lack of clarity in

the tariff regarding the inclusion of these costs in

avoidable costs (ACR) in the capacity market and

the lack of a clear definitions of operating and

maintenance costs in Manual 15.

©2017 www.monitoringanalytics.com

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Page 19: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

O&M Related Rules

• RPM ACR Components:

• AOML (Avoidable Operations and Maintenance Labor):

Avoidable labor expenses related directly to operations

and maintenance of the generating unit.

• AME (Avoidable Maintenance Expenses): Avoidable

maintenance expenses (other than expenses included

in AOML) related directly to the generating unit

• ACR excludes costs recoverable via cost-based

offers.

©2017 www.monitoringanalytics.com

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Page 20: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

O&M Related Rules

• Schedule 2 of the OA lists:

• Incremental maintenance costs

• Incremental labor costs

• Other incremental operating costs

• Maintenance adder (Added in PJM’s hourly offer

compliance filing.)

©2017 www.monitoringanalytics.com

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Page 21: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

O&M Related Rules

• PJM compliance filing defined maintenance adder

as “an adder that may be included to account for

variable operation and maintenance expenses in

a Market Seller’s Fuel Cost Policy. The

Maintenance Adder is calculated in accordance

with the applicable provisions of PJM Manual 15,

and may only include expenses incurred as a

result of electric production.”

©2017 www.monitoringanalytics.com

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Page 22: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

O&M Related Rules

• Manual 15:

• Variable maintenance cost is the parts and labor

expenses of maintaining equipment and facilities

in satisfactory operating condition.

• Some sections of the manual refer to incremental

costs and some sections do not.

• Long Term Maintenance Expenses - Combined

Cycle Plant major inspection and overhaul

expenses are not includable in cost-based offers.

• Operating costs are not mentioned.

©2017 www.monitoringanalytics.com

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Page 23: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Manual 15

• Manual 15 defines cost offers for PJM resources.

• Manual 15 was not written with competitive

markets in mind.

• Manual 15 lacks key information required to

develop cost offers.

• Manual 15 should be rewritten to support cost

offer development based on competitive market

economics and current best practices.

©2017 www.monitoringanalytics.com

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Page 24: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

VOM in Manual 15

• The M15 cost calculations primarily use FERC

accounting cost categories that do not

correspond to SRMC or the best cost calculation

practices of PJM generators .

• Even though long term maintenance is correctly

not includable in cost offers for CCs and CTs, the

VOM calculations in M15 use cyclic starting and

peaking factors for CTs that were designed by

OEMs for allocating maintenance costs.

©2017 www.monitoringanalytics.com

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Page 25: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

VOM in Manual 15

• Operating costs that qualify as short run marginal

costs are not explicitly addressed. For example,

fuel handling, ash disposal, chemicals, lubricants

and consumables in general.

• M15 should include provisions that specifically

discuss operating costs for consumables other

than fuel.

©2017 www.monitoringanalytics.com

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Page 26: Short Run Marginal Costs and VOM Costs...Jun 28, 2017  · Short Run Marginal Cost • In a competitive market, •Sellers cannot strategically change the market price, •Sellers

Monitoring Analytics, LLC

2621 Van Buren Avenue

Suite 160

Eagleville, PA

19403

(610) 271-8050

[email protected]

www.MonitoringAnalytics.com

©2017 www.monitoringanalytics.com

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