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SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review February 13, 2018 500 Granville Street | Vancouver | British Columbia | Canada | beedie.sfu.ca/sias Strictly Private & Confidential – Not For Public Distribution

SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

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Page 1: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review February 13, 2018

500 Granville Street | Vancouver | British Columbia | Canada | beedie.sfu.ca/siasStrictly Private & Confidential – Not For Public Distribution

Page 2: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

AgendaPresentation

Q&A

Feedback

Reception

Page 3: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

I. Compliance & Performance Review Marie Mao | Chief Investment Officer [email protected]

Page 4: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

SIAS 10-Year Historical

-19.8%

-4.3%5.2% 6.1%

14.8%

33.0%

47.7%57.1%

73.8%

89.2%

-20.0%-5.4%

4.4% 2.9%11.7%

27.7%

42.4%48.1%

61.4%

75.8%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SIAS

Benchmark

10-Year Annualized Return

10-Year Cumulative Return

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SIAS -19.8% 19.32% 9.92% 0.85% 8.16% 15.91% 10.99% 6.38% 10.62% 8.87%

Benchmark -20% 18.2% 10.4% -1.4% 8.5% 14.31% 11.52% 4.03% 8.98% 8.94%

1

Page 5: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

01-17 02-17 03-17 04-17 05-17 06-17 07-17 08-17 09-17 10-17 11-17 12-17 01-18 02-18

Cumulative Active Return: -0.06% (2017)

2017 Annual Performance

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

01-17 02-17 03-17 04-17 05-17 06-17 07-17 08-17 09-17 10-17 11-17 12-17 01-18 02-18

SIAS: 8.87% (2017)

Benchmark: 8.94% (2017)

SIAS Cumulative Return vs. BenchmarkHIGHLIGHTS————————

Beginning ValueCA$ 16.8 mm

Ending ValueCA$ 18.2 mm

—————————

SIAS Return 8.87%

Benchmark Return 8.94%

—————————

Active Return-0.07%

Tracking Error1.47%

Information Ratio-0.04

Cumulative Active Return

17 Annual 18 YTD

17 Annual 18 YTD

2

Cumulative Active Return: -0.07% (2017)

Page 6: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Compliance Check as of Dec.29 2017 Highlights

Canadian Equity • Integrate ESG into investment decision process

Global Equity • Individual stock & ADRs permitted in ROW portfolio

Fixed Income • Purchase of BBB bonds

Compliance ReviewAsset Mix Shifting Towards Equity

IPS 2017 Compliance Check

üüü

CanadianEquity33.5%

GlobalEquity36.4%

FixedIncome24.9%

Cash5.3%

Cash2.7%

CanadianEquity36.0%

GlobalEquity38.0%

FixedIncome23.3%

2016 Q4 2017 Q4

3

Page 7: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Marie Mao | Chief Investment Officer [email protected]

II. Asset Allocation

Page 8: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

n Stable economic growth and strong corporate earning supportstrong equity markets, despite of recent correction in fear of the climbing yield and inflation.

§ Overweight Equity§ Underweight Fixed Income & Cash

with regards to IPS.

n Expensive equity valuation and low credit spread in the mature stage reduce reward for risky assets.

§ Balanced portfolio§ Increase Fixed Income exposure by deploying cash§ Keep Equities at current weight, make better selection

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0%

2%4%

6%

8%10%

12%

14%

2012-J

un

2013-J

un

2014-J

un

2015-J

un

2016-J

un

2017-J

un

IG C

redi

t Spr

ead

Equi

ty R

isk P

rem

ium

Canadian equity risk premium - Left Canadian IG credit spread - Right

More Balanced Portfolio

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

2008-J

an

2009-J

an

2010-J

an

2011-J

an

2012-J

an

2013-J

an

2014-J

an

2015-J

an

2016-J

an

2017-J

an

2018-J

an

P/E

ratio

SPTSX Historical P/E ratio

0500100015002000250030003500

$0$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

2008-J

an

2009-J

an

2010-J

an

2011-J

an

2012-J

an

2013-J

an

2014-J

an

2015-J

an

2016-J

an

2017-J

an

2018-J

an

SPX

Inde

x

SPX

EPS

SPX EPS - Left SPX Index - Right

Expensive Equity Market Into Correction Shrinking Risk Rewards

Strong Earning Growth Supports EquityMarket View & Forward Perspectives

4

Page 9: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Work On Shifting Asset MixActive Weights Changes

1%

-3.7%

3.2%

-0.5%

0.7%

-4.7%

3.0%

1.0%

3.3%

-3.1%

1.4%

-1.5%

-5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

2016 Q4 2017 Q4 YTD

Canadian Equity

Global Equity

Fixed Income

Cash

YTD Change Under Market Correction

Canadian Equity

§ Inferior security selection led to loss§ Portfolio shrank due to correction§ Search for undervalued stock for

substitution at lower price

Global Equity

§ Capital appreciation in year beginning§ Sold an overvalued US stock to limit

loss and rebalance weight

FixedIncome

§ Increase Fixed Income exposure for rebalance & diversification purpose

§ Limit duration bet on interest rate

Cash§ Maintained cash weight against

volatility and equity market sell-off§ Seek good investment to deploy cash

5

Page 10: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Bottom Up & Value OrientedAsset Allocation

Benchmark End of Q4 17 Target Active Weight

Canadian Equity 35% 36.0% 36% OverweightGlobal Equity 35% 38.0% 38% OverweightFixed Income 28% 23.3% 25% Underweight

Cash 2% 2.7% 1% Underweight

Canadian Equity Fixed Income Global Equity

n Bottom-up approachn Shift towards Sector-neutraln Focus on security selection using

fundamental valuation methods.n Long-term value orientationn Limit risk exposure to certain factors

(Cyclical)

n Bottom-up approach n Adjust towards Duration-neutral n Focus on security selection on

company with better credit spread and average risk to achieve overall attractive yield

n Limit bet on interest rate & macro

n Bottom-up approachn Sector neutral n Long-term value orientationn Adjust risk exposure to certain

factors (Size, Cyclical)

U.S

.R

OW

n Bottom-up & Top-down n ETF research focus on

macroeconomics analysisn Individual stock pitch based

on fundamental valuation

Top-down Bottom-upSIAS FTSE TMX

ESG Integration

n Focus on portfolio holdings & potential investment in the universe

n ESG Specialistn Sector-wise comparison criterian Portfolio ESG Review n Long term goals:

§ Overall score for SIAS portfolio§ Analyze the investment universe

6

Page 11: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Hendrik Liu | Canadian Equity Analyst [email protected]

III. Canadian Equity

Page 12: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

01-17 02-17 03-17 04-17 05-17 06-17 07-17 08-17 09-17 10-17 11-17 12-17 01-18 02-18

Cumulative Active Return: 0.21% (2017) / 0.01% (YTD)

2017 Annual Performance

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

01-17 02-17 03-17 04-17 05-17 06-17 07-17 08-17 09-17 10-17 11-17 12-17 01-18 02-18

SIAS: 8.65% (2017) / 4.68% (YTD)

Benchmark: 8.44% (2017) / 4.67% (YTD)

SIAS Canadian Equity Cumulative Return vs. Benchmark

17 Annual 18 YTD

Cumulative Active Return: -0.46% (2017)

2.11

0.641.12

1.65

Total Active Risk Industry Style Non-Factor-0.46

1.50

-1.03 -0.89

Canadian Equity: 7.90% (2017)

Benchmark*: 8.36% (2017)

Total Active Return Selection Effect

17 Annual 18 YTD

Active Return Breakdown 2017 Active Risk Breakdown 2017* True benchmark is S&P TSX, while we use iShare XIC ETF for approximation.

HIGHLIGHTS———————

Beginning ValueCA$ 5.66 mm

Ending ValueCA$ 6.54 mm

—————————Active Return

-0.46%—————————

Tracking Error2.45%

Information Ratio-0.19

7

Page 13: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Sector Allocation

§ Take a bet on allocation: Sector weights are largely deviated from benchmark.

§ Active weight increase of financials mainly came from buying Bank of Nova Scotia.

3.13%

2.48%

1.98%

1.37%

-0.21%

-0.34%

-0.62%

-1%

-1.5%

-2.63%

-2.65%

-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

Financials

Consumer Discretionary

Telecommunication

Utilities

Consumer Staples

Information Technology

Health Care

Real Estate

Industrials

Energy

Materials

8

Page 14: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Selection Effect

-0.6%

-0.51%

-0.5%

-0.33%

-0.2%

-0.05%

0.03%

0.07%

0.17%

0.27%

-0.64%

-0.42%

-0.27%

0.04%

-0.45%

-0.09%

0.01%

-0.08%

0.21%

0.44%

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6

Financials

Consumer Discretionary

Industrials

Information Technology

Consumer Staples

Real Estate

Utilities

Telecommunication Services

Energy

Materials

Selection Effect Q4 2017 Selection Effect 2017

9

Page 15: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

(0.25%)(0.26%)(0.29%)(0.31%)(0.39%)

0.23%0.18%0.17%0.16%0.14%

2017 Annual CTRUnderperformed

Overweight

Underweight

Outperform Underperform

(0.65%)(0.47%)

(0.15%) (0.21%)

0.32%0.45%0.48%

0.61%

1.10%

(0.14%)

10

Page 16: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Transaction

Corus Entertainment Ltd.Date: Nov 6 2017Base Price: $11.88Buy 7,850 shares

iShare XIC ETFDate: Dec 14 2017Base Price: $25.51Buy 11,000 shares

11

Page 17: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Holding Update – Corus EntertainmentPast Performance

Reassessment

11.88

8.17

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

11-6-2017 12-6-2017 1-6-2018 2-6-2018

§ Adjusted basic EPS $0.38, below expected range of $0.42 to $0.47

§ Television revenues were down 2.37% due to 4% decrease of advertising revenues.

§ Television profit decreased 9% because of contents’ copy rights buying.

CJR/B Stock Price as of February 9, 2018

§ Announced $0.095 per share dividend in Feb., Mar. and Apr.

§ Stable dividend payment record for years§ Improving financial flexibility § A big ESG concern of non-voting shares

§ Conduct valuation analysis to determine target price range § Monitor its subsequent financial performance and see if its

current strategies work or revenue recovers§ Search for other good substitutes in the consumer

discretionary sector

* Q1 refers to September, October and November, 2017

Business Outlook

§ Flat subscriber revenue growth § Uncertain outcome of advertising innovation investment § Inferior competitive positioning in streaming service industry

Jan.10, 2018 Q1 report was released Revenue missed the lowest estimates

Past Performance

Business Outlook

Stock Performance Since Holding

Reassessment

12

Page 18: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Future Plan

§ Assign 3-4 analysts as a group to manage similar sectors § To gather a more comprehensive and less biased

perspective§ To make better stock selection with joint efforts

Watch List

§ Adjust current holdings§ Sectors Overview in Feb 2018§ Buy/Sell Report in Mar 2018

Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer Staples

Telecommunication

FinancialsReal estate

EnergyUtilities

ITIndustrialsMaterial

Canadian Equity

Selection Process Improvement

Team Structure

Action Plan

§ Set up a standard stock-rating system by sector§ To make stock selection more measurable§ Rate key indicators for each stock (i.e. Valuation

score, ESG score) § Generate an overall score for each stock using

weighted score of each key indicators and rank stocks within each sector

Training Sessions

§ Valuation training § ESG scoring model training

13

Page 19: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

ESG Integration

§ 50% Sustainalytics Score (Bloomberg) + 50% Analyst Score (SASB Materiality Map)

Utilize Existing ESG Scoring Model

Individual Stock Rating

§ Use ESG score as one factor in the peer-comparison for stock selection

§ Rate current holding’s ESG score

§ Position adjustment for individual stocks with severe ESG issues(i.e. low score)

§ Establish sector-average score in portfolio for individual comparison

§ Compute overall portfolio ESG score

§ Key ESG factors to consider:E: GHG Emission (Carbon Footprint)S: Women in Management RatioG: Management Compensation

Stock Selection Portfolio ESG Review Standard Criteria

14

Page 20: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Vincent Xie | Portfolio [email protected]

IV. U.S. Equity

Page 21: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

-10%

-5%

%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25% U.S Equity

MSCI World (URTUH)

01-17 02-17 03-17 04-17 05-17 06-17 07-17 08-17 09-17 10-17 11-17 12-17 01-18 02-18

-4%-3%-2%-1%

0%1%2% Series1

2017 Annual Performance

(0.56%)

2.46%1.30%

(0.55%)

Industry Style

Selection Effect

0.16%

2017Q4 2017

1.99%

1.17%1.38%

Active Risk Industry Style Non-Factor

3.05%

* Measure in CAD* Measure in Factor Base

SIAS U.S. Equity: 12.99% (2017)

SIAS U.S. Equity Cumulative Return vs. Benchmark

12.83% (2017)

Active Return Breakdown 2017*

Benchmark:

HIGHLIGHTS———————

Beginning ValueCA$ 3.66 mm

Ending ValueCA$ 4.26 mm

—————————Active Return

0.16%—————————

Tracking Error3.29%

Information Ratio0.048

0

18 YTD17 Annual

01-17 02-17 03-17 04-17 05-17 06-17 07-17 08-17 09-17 10-17 11-17 12-17 01-18 02-18

Cumulative Active Return: 0.16% (2017)18 YTD17 Annual

* Benchmark: MSCI World (URTH)

Active Risk Breakdown 2017

15

Page 22: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Size Effect Contributes to Active Return sm

all

Med

ium

Lar

ge

Value Blend Growth

0.05%0.09%

MomentumValue Growth

0.68%

SizeStyle Risk

0.74%

1.46%

(0.56%)

(0.03%)

(0.61%)

Momentum

Value

Growth

0.20%

Size

Style Return

0.49%

(0.25%)

Activity

Style Active Risk Breakdown 2017

US Style Box Market Style in 2017

Style Active Return Breakdown 2017

iShares Core S&P US Value ETFiShares Core S&P US Growth ETFiShares Morningstar Large-Cap ETFiShares Morningstar Small-Cap ETF

16

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

09/0

9/20

1629

/09/

2016

19/1

0/20

1608

/11/

2016

29/1

1/20

1619

/12/

2016

10/0

1/20

1731

/01/

2017

21/0

2/20

1713

/03/

2017

31/0

3/20

1721

/04/

2017

11/0

5/20

1701

/06/

2017

21/0

6/20

1712

/07/

2017

01/0

8/20

1721

/08/

2017

11/0

9/20

1729

/09/

2017

19/1

0/20

1708

/11/

2017

29/1

1/20

1719

/12/

2017

Value VS Growth Large vs Small Cap

9-09-16 1-09-17 5-09-17 9-09-17

Page 23: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

5.33%

1.44%

0.93%

3.6%

0.25%

-0.54%

-8.98%

2.36%

-0.58%

-0.66%

-3.05%

-10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%

IT

Health Care

Consumer Discretionary

Industrials

Consumer Staples

Energy

Financials

Teleco

Real Estate

Utilities

Materials

Sector Allocation To Be Neutralized

-0.8%-0.6%-0.4%-0.2%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%

IT ConsumerDiscretionary

Industrials Financials Teleco

2017 Q4

1.001.051.101.151.201.251.301.351.40

9-9-2016 1-9-2017 5-9-2017 9-9-2017

Sector Allocation

Active Allocation Return Breakdown 2017 Cyclicals vs Defensives 2017

Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF

17

Page 24: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Selection Attribution

(0.03%)

(2.5%) (0.75%) 0.25% 2%

Financials

Energy

Materials

Industrials

Consumer Discretionary

Telecommunication Services

Consumer Staples

Information Technology

Utilities

Real Estate

Health Care

(0.5%)

0.68%

0.5%

(1.78%)

1.42%

1.75%

(1.85%)

(0.01%)

0.04%

2017 Q4 2017

0.83%

0.24%

(0.03%)

0.03%

1.14%

(0.62%)

0.76%

0.23%

0.02%

(0.06%)

0%

0%

18

Page 25: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

(1.78%)(1.30%)

(0.63%)(0.28%) (0.16%)

2017Annual CTRUnderperformed

Outperform

0.1% 0.13% 0.14% 0.19% 0.31%

Underperform

(0.02%) (0.03%) (0.03%) (0.09%) (0.2%)

XLE

0.97% 0.84% 0.80%0.64%

0.50%

Overweight Underweight

19

Page 26: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

52 Week Trading Range

Current Analyst Forecast

PE Multiple

EBITDA Multiple

DCF Valuation

$15.14

$8.12

$12.21

$14.17

$19.07

$19.51

$14.97 $20.00

$30.59$14.23

$14.94

Inde

x(v

alue

)

Shar

e Pri

ce($

)

Target price: $14.47

Current Price: $14.95

Recommendation: Sell

Case Study – General Electric

Current: $14.94 High: $30.59 Low: $14.71

§ Recent revenue growth rate decease to -1% and we expect growth rate

will maintain negative in following year

§ Oil & Gas segment operation income decrease since 2015 and profit

margin decrease to 5%

§ John Flannery succeeded Mr.Immelt as CEO

§ GE Capital need to pay 6.2 billion insurance

§ Cut 50% divided and company is being investigated by SEC.

Valuation Metrics

General Electric MMM ATU Industry**

EV/EBITDA* 11.86x / 10.896x 15.109/14.262 12.63/ 11.08x 17xEV/Sales* 1.925x / 1.723x 4.706/4.423 1.5x – 1.49x 2.9xP/E* 14.78x / 15.55x 27.24x –

22.16x26.5X/21.46

X21.4x

ROE -8.9% 44.4% 9.717 15.8Net Income Margin

-4.803% 15.34 4.67% ----

-1% -1% 1% 2% 2%

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2015

2016

2017

E20

18E

2019

E20

20E

2021

E

Revenue Growth (2005 - 2021E)

GE Capital Aviation Oil & Gas Transportation Renewable Energy Power Lighting

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

29-Dec-16 29-Mar-17 29-Jun-17 29-Sep-17 29-Dec-17SPX Index GE US Equity

Investment Thesis

Valuation Football Field

20

Page 27: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

U.S Market expectationS&P 500 Forward PE

Monthly EconomicData: 1mchange Last 52WLow 52WHigh NextRelease

US ISM Business NewOrders -2 65.4 57.1 67.4 2018/03/01December

US Building Permits TotalSAAR -3 1300 1168 1316 2018/02/16December

US Ports: Inbound/Outbound Containers -65,650 1,021,528 823,903 1,087,178 Around 15thDecember

US Retail SalesMoM -0.5 0.4 -0.2 2 2018/02/14

S&P 500 Estimate EPS S&P 500 Forward PE

Monthly Economic Data

21

Page 28: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

n Bottom-up approachn Shift towards Sector-neutraln Invest high ROE companyn Value investment n Balance stock style base on benchmark (small size,

value)

SIAS MSCI(URTUH US )

Future Plan

n Increase weight in Financial sector n Decrease weight in Industrials and IT sectorn ESG studyn Sector review each month

Investment Strategy

Action plan Sell Radar

Buy RadarsmallMedi

umLarge

Value Blend Growth

22

Page 29: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Desmond Luo | Portfolio [email protected]

IV. Rest of the World

Page 30: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

-0.5%

0%

0.5%

1%

1.5%

2%

2.5%

12-16 01-17 02-17 03-17 04-17 05-17 06-17 07-17 08-17 09-17 10-17 11-17 12-17 01-18

Active Return

Annual active return is 1.37%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

12-16 01-17 02-17 03-17 04-17 05-17 06-17 07-17 08-17 09-17 10-17 11-17 12-17 01-18

ROW

Benchmark

HIGHLIGHTS———————

Beginning ValueCA$ 2.43 mm

Ending ValueCA$ 2.89 mm

—————————

ROW Return 18.68%

Benchmark Return 17.31%

—————————

Active Return1.37%

—————————Tracking Error

1.47%

Information Ratio0.93

SIAS ROW Equity Cumulative Return vs. Benchmark18 YTD17 AnnualROW Equity: 18.68% (2017)

Benchmark*: 17.31% (2017)

* Benchmark: MSCI World (URTH)

Cumulative Active Return

Cumulative Active Return: 1.37% (2017) 18 YTD17 Annual

23

Page 31: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Sector Return Comparison & Whole Benchmark Return (in CAD)

-6.12%

-4.28%

11.03%

-0.41%

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

Euro

Asia(Developed)

Asia-Indi(Emerging)

Other

18.25%16.72%

42.72%

17.75% 15.89%

35.63%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Euro Asia(Developed) Asia-Indi(Emerging)

Region Benchmark Portfolio Whole Benchmark

Return17.31%

§ Good region choice in Emerging

§ Poor Selection in all

Emerging Overweighed while Euro & Developed Asia Underweighted (in CAD)

Attribution Analysis (in CAD)

Allocation Contributed While Selection Dragged Down

-1.41%-0.27%

3.04%

0.01%

Euro Asia(Developed) Asia-Indi(Emerging) Other

Sector Return Comparison & Whole Benchmark Return (in CAD)

Emerging Overweight while Euro & Developed Asia Underweight (in CAD)

Attribution Analysis (in CAD)

24

Page 32: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

0.73

-0.03 -0.03-0.3

-0.87Country Industry Style Currency Selection

Effect

Factor Based Euro Return

Europe

0.45 0.44

0.30.26

0.09

Country Industry Style Currency SelectionEffect

Euro Factor Based Risk

1.66

-

-0.33

-0.66

-2.9

Euro Factor Based Information Ratio

Selection

Currency

Style

Industry

Country

Country Factor Driver§ Germany (0.39%) & Switzerland (0.17%)Selection Draw-back Driver

Industry Factor Risk Exposure§ Underweighted Financials

Siemens BASF SAP Deutsche Telekom

-0.15 -0.09 -0.08 -0.07

§ Make positions more efficient

§ Move toward individual or industrial ETF

Active Return In Europe: -1.41%

Drivers Future Plan

25

Page 33: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Asia Pacific Developed

-2.71%

-2.64%

-2.02%

7.64%

-0.28%

Australia

HongKong

Japan

NewZealand

Singapore

Over/Underweight

12.50%

28.69%

16.37%

4.91%

25.47%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Australia HongKong Japan NewZealand Singapore

Country Selection in Asia Pacific Developed

PortReturn Region Benchmark

Region Benchmark 16.72%

Active Return in Asia Pacific -0.27%

Conclusion

§ New Zealand’s outweigh drawn back

§ Japan’s return dominates

§ Japan’s forecast

§ External economic environment of Hong Kong & Singapore

Future Concern

Active Return In Asia Pacific: -0.27%

Conclusion Future Concerns

26

Page 34: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Emerging Market - Overview

Significant Exposed to Korea

India China South Korea

11.25

0.22

Port

Benchmark

Significant Overweight

42.72%35.63%

Region Benchmark Portfolio

Beat whole benchmark but not region benchmark

§ Active return is generated from allocation

§ Korea’s bias toward information technology

§ China Technology ETF moved to momentum bet (return 38% out of 62% in Q4)

Key Fact

§ Utilize individual stocks to grasp active selection return

§ Cut total emerging market exposure

Future Concern

Active Return in Emerging 3.04%Active Return In Emerging: 3.04%

Key Facts

Future Concern

27

Page 35: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

IPS Positions Limit§ Cut positions for utilizing individual stocks selection attributionConsistent with whole strategy§ Neutral in advanced market while activate in emerging market

1.011.79

8.13

1.1 1.320.841.84

8.16

1.36 1.34

0

2

4

6

8

10

InformationRatio

Jesen Alpha StandardDeviation

Tracking Error Active Return

Backward Scenario Simulation Shows Performance & Higher Information Ratio

After Combining

Experiment RealPort

Backward scenario simulation shows no penalty for combining

Future Plan – Combine Europe ETFs

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2016

-12

2017

-01

2017

-02

2017

-03

2017

-04

2017

-05

2017

-06

2017

-07

2017

-08

2017

-09

2017

-10

2017

-11

Experimental Port Performance Overlaps Well With Real Portfolio

Real ROW After Combination

§ Substitute negative-forecasted ETFs by Europe ETF

§ Keep positive-forecasted ETFs

§ 2 Positions were Expected to be spared out

Key Reasons For Combining Combination Process

28

Page 36: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Future Plan – Grasp Individual Stock Selection

Overview• China is selected given growth expectation & information access• Financial & Technology sectors accounted biggestSector BackgroundFinancials• Rise of fintech• Decreasing interest margin between liabilities and asset• Non performing loan & Deleverage regulation orientationTechnology• User growth will continue to be high• Service price keep on going up• Cross-sector growth potential

• Tencent• Baidu• Alibaba• Weibo• New Oriental

Financials• Promising future after deleverage • Re-Widened cost and avenue spreadTechnology• Monopoly situations• Sub-ordinaries spin-off events

• Wuba (EXCLUDED);• Ctrip (EXCLUDED);• Sohu (EXCLUDED);• NetEase(EXCLUDED);

050100150200250300350400

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Decreasing MSCI China Financials Index Margins

Operating Margin

Profit Margin

Avenue

Earnings

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

5

10

15

20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Increasing MSCI China Information Tec Index Margins

Operating Margin

Profit Margin

Earnings

Sales

Countries & Sectors Fundamental Statistics Example

Companies Under Consideration vs. Excluded

Changes We Concern

29

Page 37: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Team building: Management restructure & Training

Allocation Weight&

Selection Space

ETF Group Discussion

Stock Group Discussion

Whole Group Presentation &

Vote

ETF Analysis Methods Training

Function & Template Training

Individual Stock Valuation

Separate Discussion Groups Training Sessions

30

ESG

Page 38: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Lexian Chen| Fixed Income [email protected]

IV. Fixed Income

Page 39: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

01-17 02-17 03-17 04-17 05-17 06-17 07-17 08-17 09-17 10-17 11-17 12-17 01-18 02-18

Total Return (P)

Total Return (B)

18 YTD

2017 Annual Performance

HIGHLIGHTS———————

Beginning ValueCA$ 4.12 mm

Ending ValueCA$ 4.22 mm

—————————Active Return

-0.14%—————————

Tracking Error0.37%

Information Ratio-0.38

17 Annual

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

01-17 02-17 03-17 04-17 05-17 06-17 07-17 08-17 09-17 10-17 11-17 12-17 01-18 02-18

Total Return (D)

SIAS Fixed Income: 2.55% (2017)Benchmark*: 2.69% (2017)

Cumulative Active Return: -0.14% (2017)

-0.14% -0.21% -0.23%

0.12% 0.18%

Total ActiveReturn

Yield Cuve Spread Time Return SelectionEffect

37% 32%18% 14%

Total ActiveRisk

Yield Curve Spread Non-Factor

6.85

7.51

Portfolio Benchmark

SIAS Fixed Income Cumulative Return vs. Benchmark

18 YTD17 Annual

Avg. Duration Active Return Breakdown 2017 Active Risk Breakdown 2017

* True benchmark is FTSE TMX, while we use XBB for approximation.

31

Page 40: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Negative Active Return from Yield Curve Movement

-0.01

0.01

0.07

0.12

0.05

-0.11

0

0

-0.61

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2

6 month

1 Y

2 Y

3 Y

5 Y

7 Y

10 Y

20 Y

30 Y

Active Return from Non-Parallel Curve Change

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 20Y 30Y

Act

ive

KR

D

Yie

ld %

Sovereign Yield Curve Change VS. Active KRD

Active KRD-01/03/2017 01/03/2017 12/29/2017

Total Parallel Non-Parallel

Active Return from Curve Change -0.21 0.24 -0.48

Active Return From Non-Parallel Curve Change Sovereign Yield Curve Change vs. Active KRD

32

Page 41: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Negative Active Return from Spread Movement

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y

Provincial AA Level Bond G-Spread (bps)

12/28/17 Spread 01/03/17 Spread

0

50

100

150

200

1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y

Corporate A Level Bond G-Spread (bps)

12/28/17 Spread 01/03/17 Spread

31-Jan 28-Feb 31-Mar 30-Apr 31-May 30-Jun 31-Jul 31-Aug 30-Sep 31-Oct 30-Nov 31-Dec

-0.34 -0.49 -0.58 -0.71 -0.84 -0.79 -0.70 -0.55 -0.58 -0.68 -0.77 -0.96-0.47 -0.54 -0.43 -0.48 -0.52 -0.07 -0.06 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.01 -0.040.13 0.04 -0.15 -0.23 -0.33 -0.72 -0.65 -0.67 -0.66 -0.74 -0.79 -0.93-0.14 -0.14 -0.19 -0.20 -0.22 -0.24 -0.24 -0.23 -0.24 -0.23 -0.23 -0.280.27 0.18 0.04 -0.03 -0.11 -0.48 -0.41 -0.44 -0.42 -0.51 -0.56 -0.65Quasi

Monthly Active CTD

Total

Corporate Debt

Government Debt

Sovereign

Total Quasi Corp Error

Spread Active Return -0.23 -0.11 -0.09 -0.03

Provincial AA Level Bond G-Spread (bps) Corporate A Level Bond G-Spread (bps)

33

Page 42: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Positive Active Return from Time Carry & Selection Effect

31-Jan 28-Feb 31-Mar 30-Apr 31-May 30-Jun 31-Jul 31-Aug 30-Sep 31-Oct 30-Nov 31-Dec0.13 0.09 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.10 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.08

Monthly Yield Advantage

0.13%

0.07%

-0.05% -0.05% -0.05%

0.05%

-0.06%-0.04%-0.02%

0%0.02%0.04%0.06%0.08%0.1%

0.12%0.14%

Can 5.75 2033 Ont 5.85 2033 YORKDS 5.3 2025 HYDONE 3.2 2022 LCN 2036 BRCOL 5.4 35

Total Time Carry Selection

Active Return (Time & Selection) 0.3 0.12 0.18

Top 6 Active Selection Effect

34

CAN 5.75 2033 ONT5.85 2033 YORKDS 5.3 2025 HYDONE 3.2 2022 LCN 5.9 2036 BRCOL 5.4 2035

Page 43: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Transactions

CCOCN 5.67 09/02/2019Buy 60,000Settlement: 12/11/2017

NBRNS 2.85 06/02/2023Sell 50,000Settlement: 10/20/2017

35

Page 44: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Case Study—— CCOCN 5.67 09/02/2019

0.0020.00

40.00

60.00

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

E20

19E

2020

E

World Price of Uranium

2

397 315 394

790

500

2018 2019 2022 2024 2042

Maturity Schedule(mm)

5.1x 5.0x5.4x 5.9x

0.8x0.0x

5.0x

10.0x

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EBIT / Interest Exp.

131.5 199.4

320.3 246.2 282.7

351.8

0

200.0

400.0

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017

Cash And Equivalents

§ We don’t expect further decreases of uranium price§ Although it has been declining since the Fukushima tragedy of Japan in 2011§ Company issued a plan in 2017 to shut down 45% output: dramatically shrink supply§ With 58 reactors under construction, we expect demand to recover

§ The company has low pressure to repay the debt in the coming two years§ Although EBIT/Interest Expenditure dropped in 2016 due to the weakening market, § The company starts to reserve cash in the past three quarters intentionally§ Enough amount available in revolvers (amount of credit that can borrow from bank before that

date)§ This BBB bond has 1.79% G-spread, twice as 0.78% average G-spread from peers. (as of Nov.16, 2017)§ ESG score is better than peers in the last 5 years, especially in water consumption/revenue, waste

generation/revenue and women employee ratio.

Investment Thesis

36

Page 45: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Portfolio CTD Composition (as of 12/29/2017)

Sector Market Value CTD

Short term Median term Long term Short term Median term Long term

(1-5 years) (6 - 10 years) (10+ years) Total (1-5 years) (6 - 10 years) (10+ years) Total

Federal -19.2458% -7.0869% 5.7797% -20.5531% -0.51 -0.48 0.35 -0.64

Quasi 1.4995% 3.7432% 5.3739% 10.6167% 0.67 0.35 -1.30 -0.29

Corporate 2.5484% 11.5582% -4.1703% 9.9364% -0.02 0.62 -0.63 -0.04

Port_to_bench -15.1979% 8.2146% 6.9833% 0.0000% 0.14 0.49 -1.59 -0.96

Active Duration

-0.51

0.67-0.02

-0.48

0.35

0.620.35

-1.30-0.63

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Federal Quasi Corporate

Active CTD Comparison

Short term Median term Long term

* Data as of 12/29/2017

Duration Detail

Portfolio

6.67

Benchmark

7.63

Active CTD Comparison

37

Page 46: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Future Plan

§ Maintain lower duration strategy, but move towards duration neutral

§ Limit bets on curve change

§ Adjust duration composition (Barbell Strategy) to limit risk exposure on interest rate

§ Added long-term sovereign bonds

§ Add A-level corporate bonds (3-5 years) by identifying credit opportunities

§ Scenario analysis for situations other than flattening yield curve

38

Page 47: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

V. Appendix

Page 48: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

SIAS’s Investment TeamEx

ecut

ive

Boa

rd CIOCEO CCO

PM PM PM PMCanadian Equity Fixed Income US equity ROW equity

Analysts AnalystsAnalystsAnalystsAnalysts

Team Structure

Page 49: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Cohort Engagement & Development

Learn Interact Net-workTraining events

that help students develop skill-set such as industry research analysis company buy-sell recommendations, and Bloomberg training.

Guest speaker events that

brings in industry insights on topics that is not covered in SIAS, including commodity pricing and block chain technology.

Work with CMC and

various organizations to help students explore jobs opportunities and buildup network in Vancouver’s financial industry.

§ Crypto currency &Block Chain technology / Date: Early March 2018§ Commodity Pricing / Date: Early May 2018§ Networking Event with Canadian top 5 Banks / Date: Summer 2018

Training & Education

Event In Progress

Page 50: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Canadian EquityHoldings (as of Dec 29, 2017)

*210000 is the original face value of the amortizer; the true principal is 128186.17

Name Sector % Wgt Mkt Val Pos

CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY CO TRANSPORTATION (CANADIAN) 6.37% 416673 4020

ROYAL BANK OF CANADA BANKS (CANADIAN) 5.96% 390070 3800

TORONTO-DOMINION BANK BANKS (CANADIAN) 5.81% 380034 5160

RESTAURANT BRANDS INTL INC HOTELS RESTAURANTS & LEISURE (CANADIAN) 5.79% 378623 4900

BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA BANKS (CANADIAN) 4.83% 316368 3900

SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INC INSURANCE (CANADIAN) 4.76% 311280 6000

MANULIFE FINANCIAL CORP INSURANCE (CANADIAN) 4.71% 308085 11750

BROOKFIELD ASSET MGMT INC REAL ESTATE (CANADIAN) 4.64% 303696 5550

ISHARES CORE S&P/TSX CAPPED EQUITY FUND TRUST ETF (CANADIAN) 4.32% 282810 11000

SUNCOR ENERGY INC ENERGY (CANADIAN) 4.03% 263978 5720

BCE INC COMMUNICATION SERVICES (CANADIAN) 3.69% 241520 4000

THOMSON REUTERS CORP MEDIA (CANADIAN) 3.35% 219160 4000

CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LTD ENERGY (CANADIAN) 2.95% 193156 4300

ROGERS COMMUNICATIONS INC COMMUNICATION SERVICES (CANADIAN) 2.74% 179340 2800

TRANSCANADA CORP ENERGY (CANADIAN) 2.71% 177422 2900

ONEX CORP DIVERSIFIED FINANCIALS (CANADIAN) 2.68% 175161 1900

CGI GROUP INC SOFTWARE & SERVICES (CANADIAN) 2.61% 170750 2500

EMERA INC UTILITIES (CANADIAN) 2.58% 169128 3600

WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS CORP MATERIALS (CANADIAN) 2.57% 168129.5 6050

METRO INC FOOD & DRUG RETAILING (CANADIAN) 2.49% 163012.5 4050

ENBRIDGE INC ENERGY (CANADIAN) 2.25% 147480 3000

CCL INDUSTRIES INC MATERIALS (CANADIAN) 2.04% 133584 2300

BROOKFIELD RENEWABLE PARTNERS LIMITED PARTNERSHIP - PUBLIC EQUITY 1.72% 112591.7 2570

Page 51: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Canadian Equity (cont’d)Transaction in 2017

Page 52: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

U.S. EquityHoldings (as of Dec 29, 2017)

*210000 is the original face value of the amortizer; the true principal is 128186.17

Name Sector % Wgt Mkt Val Pos

3M CO MISC MANUFACTURER 4.70% 251229 1100

FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDRUS EQUITY INDEX ETF (US REGULATED) 4.65% 248520 9500

VISA INC DIVERSIFIED FINANCIAL SERVICES 4.19% 224280 2000

JOHNSON & JOHNSON PHARMACEUTICALS 3.94% 210525 1500

HOME DEPOT INC/THE RETAIL 3.82% 204087.5 1250

CISCO SYSTEMS INC TELECOMMUNICATIONS 3.69% 197490 5800

VARIAN MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC HEALTH CARE 3.32% 177688.5 1650

ENERGY SELECT SECTOR SPDRUS EQUITY INDEX ETF (US REGULATED) 3.21% 171573.5 2450

COCA-COLA CO/THE BEVERAGES 3.11% 166428 3600

AMAZON.COM INC INTERNET 2.74% 146786.9 130

ALPHABET INC-CL A INTERNET 2.74% 146680.8 140

ALPHABET INC-CL C INTERNET 2.70% 144376.4 140

MCDONALD'S CORP RETAIL 2.65% 141950 850

AT&T INC TELECOMMUNICATIONS 2.22% 119000 3500

GENERAL ELECTRIC CO MISC MANUFACTURER 1.87% 99950 5000

UTILITIES SELECT SECTOR SPDRUS EQUITY INDEX ETF (US REGULATED) 1.46% 78078 1400

AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORP PHARMACEUTICALS 1.41% 75270 1000

WAL-MART STORES INC RETAIL 1.35% 72240 800

WALT DISNEY CO/THE MEDIA 1.34% 71876 700

FACEBOOK INC INTERNET 1.34% 71720 400

CBRE GROUP INC REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT & DEVELOPMENT 0.99% 53053 1300

EMERSON ELECTRIC CO ELECTRICAL COMPO & EQUIP 0.57% 30740 500

REAL ESTATE SELECT SECT SPDRUS EQUITY ETF (US REGISTERED) 0.54% 28670.88 848

Page 53: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

U.S. Equity (cont’d)Transaction in 2017

Page 54: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Overview & Investment ThesisOverview:• The real estate sector is composed of two industries—equity real estate investment

trusts (REITs) and real estate management & development. • In the first half of 2017, FFO growth was 2.6% in the first quarter and 3.6% in the

second quarter. • It is expected that FFO will ease considerably due to reduced real estate investment,

fewer property acquisitions, and higher property dispositionsInvestment Thesis:

Relative Performance

Sector Report– Real Estate Sector

Source: Bloomberg, SIASMRQ = Most Recent Quarter

• The increase of 10-year yield• The popularity of online shopping

Headwinds Opportunity

• Technology drives demand for data centers• The new tax reform: deduction of tax rate

9095

100105110115120125

1-3-2017 4-3-2017 7-3-2017 10-3-2017 1-3-2018

S&P 500 Real Estate VS S&P 500 (1 year)

S&P 500 Real Estate (Sector) (TR) S&P 500 (TR)

Key Issues

• Corporate Profits• Disposal Income• Location

• 10 Year Treasury Yield• Rental Vacancy Rate• New Residential Construction

Positive Correlation: Inverse Correlation:

Sub Industries

Fundamental Statistics (Top 5)

REITs Mean

P/E 2018E 38.74x

P/B 7.29x

EPS 2018E 6.41

Div Yield 3.44%

Service Mean

P/E 2018E 19.07x

P/B 4.01x

EPS 2018E 2.825

Div Yield 0.45%

Owners Mean

P/E 2018E 30.27x

P/B 5.99x

EPS 2018E 2.57

Div Yield 1.85%

Residential REITs:Oversupply Slowdown in growth opportunities

Retail REITs:Long tern leases. Less fluctuationHigh quality properties of REITsHigh occupancyOnline retailers want more physical presence

Stable

Industrial REITs:Excellent performance YTDHigh FFO MultipleWarehouses & fulfillment centers for e-commerceLimited available space

Raise rental rates

Page 55: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Overview & Investment ThesisOverview:• The drug industry experienced a “patent cliff” from 2011 to 2015, when a

significant number of top-selling drugs lost their patent protection.• Adjusted EBIT for companies in SP1500 index was 31.5%(2016), up from

30.5%(2015) and 29.7%(2014). • CFRA expects slightly improvement in 2017 to 31.7% on higher sales growth and

improved leverage, as spending is expected to remain conservativeInvestment Thesis:

Relative Performance

Sector Report– Healthcare Sector

Source: Bloomberg, SIASMRQ = Most Recent Quarter

• Changes in government spending and reimbursement rates can have great ramifications.

Headwinds Opportunity

• Higher number of FDA approvals to continue.

• New tax reform will help bring overseas cash

Key future trends

• Consolidation within the sector.• Orphan Drugs on the rise.• Treatment of Opioid overdose with

drugs like Naloxone.

• AMZN, JPM & BRK.A entry in the sector.

• Rise of Biosimilars.

Sub Industries

Fundamental Statistics (Top 5)

Multiples Mean

P/E 2018E 16.53x

P/B 5.57x

EPS 2018E 7.76

Multiple Mean

P/E 2017 16.19x

P/B 4.01x

EPS 2017 6.16x

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

12-1-2016 4-1-2017 8-1-2017 12-1-2017

Healthcare sector vs S&P 500 (1 year)

Healthcare Sector S&P 500

Biopharma Services:Improving fundamentals, industry tailwinds the 2018 backdropFDA approvals on pace, Biotech cash a boon for Biopharma outsourcing

Life Science Equipment:Small-cap drove the outperformanceSteady fundamentals and R&D demandForesee robust growth in China in 2018Health Care Supply Chain:Supply-chain stocks battered by Amazon threat, industry pressureHealth-care distribution stocks trail SP500

Biotech:Uncertain future salesNo solid sign of improvementEPS growth may be less volatile

Hospital:Lean further on asset sales, could broaden scopeLower wage costs, bad debt head wind is building

Page 56: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Overview & Investment Thesis

Overview• Financial markets in the United States are the largest and most liquid in the world. • In 2016, finance and insurance represented 7.3 percent (or $1.4 trillion) of U.S.

gross domestic product.• Financial services and products help facilitate and finance the export of U.S.

manufactured goods and agricultural products.

Investment Thesis:

Relative Performance

Sector Report– Financial Sector

Source: Bloomberg, SIAS

• The Federal Reserve Board (FRB) is signaling a new age of governance and accountability, as well as a new rating system

Headwinds Opportunity

• Tax rate cutting• Interest rate rising

Key future trends

A Consolidating and Modernizing Industry• larger banks pursuing mergers and acquisitions (M&As) will likely extend their

focus past the purchase of traditional brick-and-mortar bank branches and into the areas of online or electronic banking.

The rise of fintech• Accelerated the adoption of digital banking

Sub Industries

Fundamental Statistics (Top 5)

Banks P/E2017 P/B2017 EPS2017 Profit MarginJP Morgan Chase &Co. 15.5 1.63 6.24 26.58%Bank of America 16.27 1.26 1.58 25.58%

Wells Fargo &Co. 15.34 1.7 4.03 20.96%Citigroup 14.31 0.96 4.27 18.33%

Consumer Customers P/E2017 P/B2017 EPS2017 Profit MarginVisa Inc 33.79 8.85 3.18 44.81%

MasterCard 36.12 25.64 3.70 38.46%

American Express 18.89 4.17 5.67 14.54%

Capital One Financial 14.24 1.07 6.96 13.64%

• Banking• Insurance• Private Equity• Thrifts & Mortgage Finance• Capital Markets

0

1000

2000

3000

010203040

Sep 2007Sep 2011

Sep 2015

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (U.S.) vs S&P 500

XLF US Equity (R1)

• Asset Management• Venture Capital• Real Estate Investment Trust• Consumer Finance

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Fixed IncomeHoldings (as of Dec 29, 2017)

Issuer Ticker Sector % Wgt Mkt Val Pos Px Close BB Comp

CAMECO CORP CCOCN 5.67 09/02/19 Basic Materials 1.50 63498.604 60000 103.95 BBB

BELL CANADA BCECN 2.9 08/12/26 Communications 2.31 97635.551 100000 96.51 BBB+

SHAW COMMUNICAT SJRCN 5 ½ 12/07/20 Communications 0.41 17403.704 16000 108.40 BBB-

LOBLAW CO LTD LCN 5.9 01/18/36 Consumer, Non-cyclical 2.21 93322.618 75000 121.73 BBB

SAPUTO INC SAPCN 2.827 11/21/23 Consumer, Non-cyclical 2.36 99921.702 100000 99.60 A-

PEMBINA PIPELINE PPLCN 3.71 08/11/26 Energy 2.41 102065.06 100000 100.61 BBB

BANK OF MONTREAL BMO 6.17 03/28/23 Financial 2.43 102662.94 100000 101.06 A-

BANK NOVA SCOTIA BNS 3.27 01/11/21 Financial 2.47 104208.55 100000 102.65 AA-

CADILLAC FAIRVIE CADF 3.64 05/09/18 Financial 2.40 101269.41 100000 100.74 AA+

GREAT-WEST LIFEC GWOCN 4.65 08/13/20 Financial 1.78 75338.06 70000 105.83 A

INVESTORS GROUP IGMCN 6.65 12/13/27 Financial 2.37 100345.26 80000 125.09 A

ROYAL BK CANADA RY 4.93 07/16/25 Financial 3.31 140076.53 120000 114.45 AA-

407 INTL INC ETRHWY 5.96 12/03/35 Industrial 3.22 136067.41 100000 135.59 A

GREATER TORONTO GTAAIR 5.26 04/17/18 Industrial 2.42 102157.02 100000 101.06 A+

FORTIS INC FTSCN 2.85 12/12/23 Utilities 2.13 90100.063 90000 99.96 BBB

HYDRO ONE INC HYDONE 3.2 01/13/22 Utilities 2.48 104675.36 100000 103.17 A

HYDRO ONE INC HYDONE 4.4 06/01/20 Utilities 2.25 95051.407 90000 105.24 A

TORONTO HYDRO TORHYD 3.54 11/18/21 Utilities 2.48 104991.03 100000 104.56 A

FARM CREDIT CAN FARMCR 4.6 06/01/21 Agency 2.54 107348.09 99000 108.04 AAA

YORK REGION DIST YORKDS 5.3 06/03/25 Provincial 2.59 109308.83 *210000 109.23 A+

ALBERTA PROVINCE ALTA 2.55 12/15/22 Provincial 2.40 101523.01 100000 101.40 AA-

ALBERTA PROVINCE ALTA 3.4 12/01/23 Provincial 1.40 59268.408 56000 105.55 AA-

ALBERTA PROVINCE ALTA 4 12/01/19 Provincial 2.47 104387.8 100000 104.05 AA-

BRIT COLUMBIA BRCOL 5.4 06/18/35 Provincial 3.22 136114.78 100000 135.91 AA+

BRIT COLUMBIA BRCOL 5.7 06/18/29 Provincial 5.53 233599.85 180000 129.56 AA+

MANITOBA (PROV) MP 2.45 06/02/25 Provincial 3.53 149223.14 150000 99.28 A+

MANITOBA (PROV) MP 6.3 03/05/31 Provincial 4.94 208859.14 150000 137.20 A+

NEW BRUNSWICK NBRNS 2.85 06/02/23 Provincial 1.21 51333.18 50000 102.43 A+

NOVA SCOTIA NS 5.8 06/01/33 Provincial 1.26 53153.973 39000 135.80 A+

ONTARIO PROVINCE ONT 5.35 06/02/19 Provincial 4.24 179275.1 170000 105.02 AA-

ONTARIO PROVINCE ONT 5.85 03/08/33 Provincial 6.58 278258.99 200000 137.29 AA-

SASKATCHEWAN CDA SCDA 3.2 06/03/24 Provincial 4.96 209756.92 200000 104.62 AA

CANADA-GOV'T CAN 5 ¾ 06/01/33 Sovereign 12.19 515209.76 350000 146.71 AAA

*210000 is the original face value of the amortizer; the true principal is 128186.17

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Fixed Income (cont’d)Transaction in 2017

SECTOR COMPANY DATE SELL /BUY

EnergyPPLCN 3.71 08/11/26

Mar 22nd, 17&

June 29th, 17 BUY

Consumer StapleSAPCN 2.827 11/21/23

Mar 22nd, 17 BUY

Consumer StapleLCN 5.9 01/18/36 June 29th, 17 BUY

UtilityFTSCN 2.85 12/12/23

June 30th, 17 BUY

ProvincialALTA 3.4 12/01/23

June 29th, 17 SELL

CommunicationBCECN 2.9 08/12/26

Aug 21st, 17 BUY

Provincial NBRNS 2.85 06/02/23 Oct 20th, 17 SELL

Material CCOCN 5.67 09/02/19 Dec 11st, 17 BUY

Page 59: SIAS | 2017 Annual Performance Review€¦ · Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Financials Real estate Energy Utilities IT Industrials Material Canadian Equity

Rest Of The World Holdings (as of Dec 29, 2017)

*210000 is the original face value of the amortizer; the true principal is 128186.17

Name Sector % Wgt Mkt Val Pos

ISHARES EUROPE ETF GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX ETF (US REGULATED) 12.10% 836699.71 14130

ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF US EQUITY ETF (US REGISTERED) 8.99% 621063.55 8271

ISHARES MSCI UNITED KINGDOM US EQUITY ETF (US REGISTERED) 3.68% 254697.8 5675

ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX ETF (US REGULATED) 3.11% 215136.53 5200

ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA ETF GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX ETF (US REGULATED) 2.53% 174998.93 1864

ISHARES MSCI FRANCE ETF GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX ETF (US REGULATED) 2.43% 168203.53 4300

ISHARES MSCI AUSTRALIA ETF GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX ETF (US REGULATED) 2.28% 157347.22 5420

ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND ETF GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX ETF (US REGULATED) 2.01% 138866.58 3115

ISHARES MSCI INDIA ETF GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX ETF (US REGULATED) 1.11% 76829.64 1700

GUGGENHEIM CHINA TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX ETF (US REGULATED) 1.10% 75953.83 1000

ISHARES MSCI HONG KONG ETF GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX ETF (US REGULATED) 0.88% 60769.78 1908

ISHARES MSCI SINGAPORE ETF US EQUITY ETF (US REGISTERED) 0.47% 32488.99 1000