Simon Miller

Key Environmental

Challenges:

Inconvenient truths & convenient solutions

Earth’s ecosystems

provide goods & services worth $33 trillion per year –

for free!Source: Costanza et al (1997)

About twice the value of global GNP (which is just $18 trillion)

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 www.millenniumassessment.org

“nearly two thirds of the services provided by nature to human-kind are found to be in decline worldwide”

Year of Peak Fish HarvestHarvest peak

Pre-peak

Post-peak

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project

Year of Peak Fish HarvestHarvest peak

Pre-peak

Post-peak

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project

Year of Peak Fish HarvestHarvest peak

Pre-peak

Post-peak

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project

Source: Global Footprint Network / Best Foot Forward

Humanity’s Ecological Footprint 1961 - 2003

SUSTAINABILITY GAP

How much nature do we have?How much nature do we have?

1.9

1.2

3.8Hectares of bio-productive area per capita(assuming no loss of productivity, incl sea space and allowing for 12% biodiversity)

Source: Sharing Nature’s Interest

At the moment, we are using 25% more than the Earth can

sustainably provide.Source: Global Footprint Network / Best Foot Forward

Rising to 100% by 2050.

Source: Global Footprint Network / Best Foot Forward

Source: MOSUS project www.mosus.net

Global Use of Resources (1980 - 2002)

Source: Marland, G., T.A. Boden, and R. J. Andres. 2003

Our rising carbon footprint is

of particular concern

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment report (February 2007)

Change in Temperature, Sea Level &

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover.

“11 of the last 12 years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest… since 1850.”

Source: Brooks & Adger (Ambio, In Press)

Global Frequency of Climate-related Disasters

We only have one planetWe only have one planet

• We only have one planet

Source: WWF Living Planet Report 2006

Living Planet Index 1970 - 2003

Climate change by degrees

Probably unavoidable(>350 ppm CO2)

Emissions peak 2015 (400ppm CO2)

Emissions peak 2030 (450ppm CO2)

Emissions peak 2050 (550ppm CO2)

Emissions peak > 2050(>650ppm CO2)

Amazon carbon f/b loop

Arctic ice-albedo f/b loop

Siberian methane f/b

Ocean methane hydrate release

Elimination of most life

1°

2°

3°

4°

5°

Source: Lynas (2007) Six Degrees : our future on a hotter planet (figures based on 75% certainty)

Options for stabilisation (450/550ppm CO2e)

Source: Stern Review 2006

“Stabilisation - at whatever level - requires that annual emissions be brought down to the level that balances the Earth’s natural capacity to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. .. This is more than 80% below the absolute level of current annual emissions.”

STOP PRESS:

EU agrees to 20% reductions by 2020

possibly increasing to 30%

Consumption varies considerably by region

Ave

rage

per

cap

ita fo

otpr

int (

gha)

Source: Global Footprint Network / Best Foot Forward

The challenge is to reduce the impact of modern urban living...

…from three or four planets to one. A reduction of 70-80%

in resource use.

Key questions for business:

What is the scale of the change required by each sector?

Where best to intervene in the supply chain?

How to make change happen?

An Example:

The Transport Sector

• Challenges and• Opportunities

Challenge: CO2 per $ spending

Carbon Dioxide Emissions (kt) per $m of spending

-0.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6

Almost 1,000 tonnes of CO2 for every $m spent on

transportation.

Food

& drinkAlcohol

& tobacco

Clothing

& footwear

Housing

Household

equipment

Health

Transport

Communications

Recreation

& culture

Education

Restaurants

& hotelsMisc. goods

& services

Challenge: Whole life cycle issues

Source: Best Foot Forward

CO2 emissions from fuel use make

up more than 80% of total.

Challenge: 130% growth in mobilityTrillion (1012) of passenger kilometres per year

Source: WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project , Goldman Sachs

Challenge: 130% CO2 increase

Source: WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project, Stern Review

Gigatonnes (109) CO2 equivalent emissions per year

“Transport was the fastest growing sector in OECD countries and the second fastest growing sector in non-OECD countries between 1990 and 2002 (emissions increasing by 25% and 36% respectively).”

Impact – Causative factors

Ehrlich Equation

Human impact (I)

Population (P)

Affluence (A)

Technology (T)

I=P x A x T

Opportunities…

• Technology

• Modal switch

• Demand management

Technology

0.000

0.250

0.500

0.750

1.000

1.250

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Different ferry routes

kg

CO

2 p

er

passen

ger

km

Analysis of 25 ferry routes showed 10x difference in efficiency (CO2

per passenger km)Source: Best Foot Forward

Technology

“Emissions rates for midsized cars vary by 50 percent across automobile manufacturers.”

Source: WRI 2003. Note: PSA = Peugeot Citroen, DC = Daimler Chrysler

CO2 intensity of car manufacturer’s profits

(2002)

Modal Switch

Full occupancyCO2 only

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

Bristol TempleMeads

Edinburgh Birmingham Leeds Manchester

Leeds Birmingham Manchester Edinburgh Edinburgh

By plane

By car

By train

Full occupancy

CO2 only

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

Bristol TempleMeads

Edinburgh Birmingham Leeds Manchester

Leeds Birmingham Manchester Edinburgh Edinburgh

By plane

By car

By train

Comparison of 5 journeys by 3 different modes(kgCO2 per journey - assuming full occupancy)

Modal switches can make more than 3x difference in CO2 emissions

Source: Best Foot Forward. Note: figures do not account for additional climate impact of air travel (x1.9)

Relative energy content of rape crop

Biofuels

Source: Best Foot Forward.

rape seed cakes

rape seed oil

rape straw

88% CO2 reduction possible

CO2 emissions per litre fuel; diesel, 5% biodiesel blend, 100% biodiesel plus various options for additional renewables and use of rape straw and seed.

Sources: Best Foot Forward, Folkecenter

Biofuels

But is there enough biodiesel?But is there enough biodiesel?

Footprint of biodiesel

production in UK

would far exceed UK

land area

Demand Management

• Companies such as HP and Nortel, that have offered teleworking have seen reductions of up to 10% in emissions from commuting.

• One lift sharing company in the UK estimates that it saves 6 million car-kilometres/year.

• In the UK, 10% of all retail sales are now online (predicted to rise to 40% by 2020)

• NOT making a journey reduces its emissions by 100%!

The Good News: interventions are multiplicative

Questions/challengesWhat CO2 reduction do you think would be

‘fair’ for your business unit?

What are the business implications of operating in a more resource-constrained world?

Could you reduce supply chain CO2 per unit of output by 80% by 2050?

How do you plan to sustainably manage growth?

What combination of demand management, technology & efficiency improvements will work best for you?

Thinking beyond CO2, what plans do you have to reduce your overall ecological footprint?