CONSTRUCTION MARKETQUARTERLY UPDATE

ISSUE NO. 82 | JUNE 2018

SINGAPORE REPORT

|SINGAPORE REPORT

JUNE 2018

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PROJECT FEATURE

SMU-X PROJECT FOR SMU

SMU-X is a new educational institution that is an integral part of Singapore Management University’s innovative pedagogy. The project is designed as a 24/7 co-working learning hub that mimics the workplace to facilitate the coming together of students from different disciplines to tackle real-world challenges by taking on projects from corporate, non-profit and government sector organisations.

The new five-storey building will feature facilities such as student lounges, sleeping pods, shower amenities and a “makerspace” that is equipped with 3D printers and tools that students can use to create and build prototypes for SMU-X projects. About 500m2 of the 8,600m2 (gross floor area) development is set aside as incubation spaces for start-ups. Upon completion, SMU-X will allow students to have more opportunities to network with start-up founders and mentors, and work on real-world projects.

SMU-X is designed by MKPL Architects Pte Ltd and is slated for completion in 2019. It targets to achieve the BCA’s Green Mark Platinum certification as it will be the first on-site net zero energy building in the city centre, which means it is self-sustainable as it generates its own power.

RLB is proud to be the quantity surveyor of this project.

Image courtesy of Singapore Management University (SMU)

MARKET TRENDS

SINGAPORE ECONOMY

SINGAPORE REPORT | JUNE 2018

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Offical data from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) showed Singapore’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 1Q 2018, higher than the 3.6% growth in the previous quarter. The growth was again underpinned by the robust growth in the manufacturing sector. The first quarter’s economic growth exceeded the government’s initial estimate of 4.3%.

The manufacturing sector, which accounts for one-fifth of the economy, grew by 9.8% y-o-y in 1Q 2018, extending the 4.8% growth in the previous quarter. The sector’s growth was primarily driven by the electronics, precision engineering and chemicals clusters.

The construction sector remained the underperformer with a contraction of 5.0% y-o-y in 1Q 2018, the same pace of decline as in the previous quarter. Construction output was weighed down by continued weakness in both public sector and private sector construction activities. The construction sector is likely to remain lacklustre as the earlier weakness in construction demand, particularly from the private sector, is expected to continue to weigh on construction activities for 2H 2018.

On the back of strong economic growth, for the first time since April 2012, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened monetary policy to allow the Singapore currency to gradually appreciate at a modest pace. This

will ensure medium-term price stability against the currencies of its main trading partners and maintain Singapore’s international competitiveness.

Core inflation for the whole of 2017 hit a three-year high of 1.5% and has been running at a slightly higher pace in 1H 2018. MAS projects core inflation to rise gradually for the rest of 2018 and come in at the upper half of the forecast range of 1% to 2% for the whole of 2018. Meanwhile, the inflation of consumer price index for all items (CPI-All Item) is predicted to be in the upper half of the 0% to 1% forecast range for the whole of 2018.

Despite ongoing global trade threats, there has been a slight cooling of tensions in the latest developments in US-China trade relations. The MTI assured that impact from the US-China tariffs on the Singapore economy is being monitored closely for any long term direct impact on exports as well as indirect iimpact on local companies and workers. An analysis by the ministry estimated that about 0.09% of Singapore’s domestic exports could be directly affected by the trade tariffs. MAS also reiterated its expectation for full year economic outlook remains positive.

Barring the full materialisation of downside risks arising from rising global interest rates and protectionist actions, MTI now expects economic growth for 2018 to come in at 2.5% to 3.5%, compared with the previous estimate of between 1.5% and 3.5%.

SINGAPORE REPORT | JUNE 2018

previous quarter, but the island-wide vacancy rate of office space at the end of 1Q 2018 decreased to 12.5%, from 12.6% at the end of the previous quarter.

Despite strong rental growths and stock for prime Grade A office space in the CBD over the past five consecutive quarters, the most recent half-yearly Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme did not place any commercial site in the CBD. Land that is released for office development in the central business district (CBD) is likely to remain low.

Market observers point out that tech and co-working firms will likely to continue to drive demand for office space. The property market is expected to see decentralisation to dominate office market in next decade. Based on URA’s Master Plan 2008, 500,000m2 of office space is slated for Jurong over the next few decades to boost demand for new decentralised office developments in the coming decade. The tightening of CBD office supply will push up rents but make non-CBD locations more viable alternatives.

The retail market remains subdued with increasing online consumerism. There was a total of 530,000m2 GFA space in the pipeline in 1Q 2018. This was more than the 509,000m2 GFA in the previous quarter. The total retail vacancy rates rose by 7.5% at the end of 1Q 2018 from the previous quarter. Retail vacancies are forecast to rise and rental rates are expected to be under pressure amidst a supply influx.

3 |

MARKET TRENDS

SINGAPORE PROPERTY MARKET

Based on Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) statistics, private-home prices increased 3.9% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in 1Q 2018, better compared with the 0.8% increase in the previous quarter. It is also higher than the 3.1% from the URA flash estimates. Prices of landed properties also rose by 1.9% in 1Q 2018, compared with the 0.5% increase in the previous quarter. Prices of non-landed properties rose by 4.4%, compared with the 0.8% increase in the previous quarter. As at end 1Q 2018, there was a total supply of 40,330 uncompleted private residential units (excluding ECs) in the pipeline. Of this number, 23,514 units remained unsold as at end 1Q 2018, up from 18,891 units in the previous quarter. With en bloc deals since 2017 potentially adding new properties to the inventory, an oversupply of private housing oversupply is expected to start in 2021. In addition, the recent en-bloc sales boom is projected to increase construction opportunities for the industry.

Singapore’s office market appears to be moving in a upward cycle as prices of office space accelerated by 1.3% in 1Q 2018, even though it is lower than the 2.7% increase in the previous quarter. Office space rental rates in 1Q 2018 rose at the same pace as the previous quarter by 2.6%. As at the end of 1Q 2018, there was a total supply of about 791,000m2 gross floor area (GFA) of office space in the pipeline, compared with the 597,000m2 GFA of office space in the pipeline in the

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SINGAPORE REPORT | JUNE 2018

Based on statistics by the Building Construction Authority (BCA), the construction sector shrunk for the second consecutive quarter in 1Q 2018. The sector fell by 5.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) due to slower construction activities from both public and private sectors. Despite slower construction activities, the total value of contracts awarded expanded by 45.8% y-o-y to S$7 billion in 1Q 2018, boosted by construction demand growths from both the public and private sectors.

The public sector’s construction demand totalled S$4.5 billion in 1Q 2018, remaining strong with a 69.3% y-o-y expansion due to the award of various sizeable institutional building and civil engineering contracts in the quarter. And the private sector construction demand rose by 16.1% to S$2.5 billion in 1Q 2018, a reversal from the 7.6% decline in the previous quarter. The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) explained this turnaround was mainly due to a surge in contracts awarded for residential developments, private institutional projects as well as other building works such the development of nature-themed attractions at Mandai Park.

Employment in the construction sector also contracted for the seventh consecutive quarter. It fell by 5,900 persons in 1Q 2018, in tandem with the continued weakness in construction activities. Work Permit Holders constituted the bulk of the employment losses in the manufacturing and construction sectors. The level of retrenchment in the construction sector fell to 300 persons in 1Q 2018, accounting for 16% of total retrenchment.

As part of a pipeline of plans to transform the construction industry, BCA plans to introduce a collaborative bidding system in 4Q 2018 which will make it easier for smaller consultancy firms in the construction sector to bid for larger projects that would not have been possible if they were bidding as a single firm. The government will continue to monitor the construction industry and will adjust the pace of public-sector projects to facilitate the transformation process. It announced the expansion of the National Robotics Programme to cover the built environment and construction sectors, to develop robotic solutions to transform work processes in areas such as Design for Manufacturing and Assembly (DfMA). This is part of a broader effort to tap the research, innovation and enterprise capabilities in research institutes, and universities and polytechnics to help local companies innovate and stay competitive.

BCA reported rising prices for basic construction materials. The average market prices for cement, 20mm granite, ready-mixed concrete (G40 Pump) and rebar generally trended upwards compared to the preceding quarter. Looking ahead into the immediate next few months, prices for ready-mixed concrete (G40 Pump) and its raw materials are expected to remain competitive while that for rebar may start to moderate. Based on current demand and cost trends, and barring any significant contraction in the public sector construction programme, building tender prices in 2018 is anticipated to trend upwards from 2017.

MARKET TRENDS

SINGAPORE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

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rates climb, reflecting soaring government deficits and credit tightening by the Federal Reserve. This is in line with the IMF’s and the World Bank’s predictions.

The Japanese economy contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in 1Q 2018 after two years of growth. Private consumption stagnated in 1Q 2018 after an uptick of 0.2% in the previous quarter. Private residential investment also plunged another 2.1% in 1Q 2018 after a 2.7% fall in the previous quarter. Japan’s consumer spending has remained stubbornly lacklustre, with companies staying stingy on wage hikes despite healthy profits, according to official reports.

The Eurozone economy lost steam in 1Q 2018, after performing well for 2017. According to Eurostat’s preliminary estimates, Eurozone’s GDP increased by 0.4% (seasonally adjusted) in 1Q 2018 from the previous quarter (+0.7%), which marked the slowest growth since 3Q 2016. Similarly, the zone faces a potential trade war with the US. Economic confidence levels within the zone have fallen over concerns of punitive US trade tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from the European Union.

China’s economy made a strong start to 2018 and seemed to shrugged off escalating trade tensions with the US. China’s economy for 1Q 2018 exceeded the official estimate of 6.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) and expanded 6.8% y-o-y for the third consecutive quarter, based on reports released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). As the Chinese government continues to move its growth driver toward domestic consumption and control its massive debt and pollution, the Chinese government also targets growth at around 6.5% which is the same as in 2017. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects Chinese growth to achieve 6.6% and 6.4% for 2018 and 2019 respectively.

SINGAPORE REPORT | JUNE 2018

MARKET TRENDS

GLOBAL ECONOMY

Many major economies are currently experiencing slower consumer spending amid potential risks from US-China trade frictions. The United States’ and China’s constant threats to slap tariffs on tens of billions of dollars of each other’s exports have led both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to project a slower global growth beyond the next couple of years, citing reasons of rising protectionism, escalating political trade tensions and waning global economic integration. The World Bank also said US tax reform will “subtract momentum starting in 2020”. The IMF projects world GDP in 2018 and 2019 to both come in at 3.8%.

Based on preliminary estimates from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the OECD area slowed for the third straight quarter, to 0.5% in 1Q 2018. Among the major seven economies including the US, Canada, France, Italy, Germany and the United Kingdom, Japan recorded the slowest annual growth.

The U.S. economy grew at a weaker 2.2% annual rate in 1Q 2018, slightly below the inital reading of 2.3%, as consumer and business spendings slowed, according to the Commerce Department. It is also a much slower rate of growth than the 2.9% annual rate in 4Q 2017. The Commerce Department expects the US GDP to strengthen to a growth rate of about 3% in 2Q 2018 while the Trump administration is projecting that its economic policies will keep growth at rates of 3% or better in coming years. However, although many economists believe the tax cuts and increased government spending will boost growth in 2018 and 2019, they warned that growth will soften in 2020 as the stimulus wears off and interest

6 |

Data Sources: BCA and RLB

Variances between the RLB and the BCA Tender Price index arise from differences in the index derivation methodology, the basket

of items and weightages used for each index and the variety of building projects utilised. The index basket here excludes piling works

and Mechanical & Electrical services.

Base Year 2010 = 100

* Average indices as at 1st Quarter 2018

Note:

Data Source: BCA

Annual change 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

RLB TPI +0.9% 123.2 100.2 100.0 103.1 105.7 110.5 112.0 110.2 105.3 101.5 102.4

BCA TPI +1.3% 119.9 101.3 100.0 99.7 99.8 104.6 106.8 104.0 98.0 96.7 97.4

BUILDING TENDER PRICE INDICES

Annual change 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

HDB Flats 3.3% 124.3 107.2 100.0 93.0 92.0 97.8 99.8 96.0 85.8 83.2 85.9

PrivateNon-Landed

-1.0% 120.0 101.9 100.0 101.7 103.5 108.0 110.1 107.6 104.7 102.3 101.3

CommercialOffices

-0.7% 118.4 102.0 100.0 102.5 103.5 106.3 107.0 103.7 99.9 97.8 97.1

JUNE 2018|SINGAPORE REPORT

80

90

100

110

120

130

TENDER PRICE TRENDS

BCA TENDER PRICE INDICES

80

90

100

110

120

130

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

USD/TonneUSD/Tonne

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

CRUDE OIL PRICES

Data Source: BCA

Data Source: IndexMundi

Note: Crude Oil Prices above are expressed as monthly average prices of UK Brent, Dubai and WTI oil classifications.

7 |

STEEL REINFORCEMENT (16 - 32MM HIGH TENSILE) SUPPLY PRICES

METAL PRICES

Average 1Q 18 / 4Q 17 change

May17

Jun17

Jul17

Aug17

Sep17

Oct17

Nov17

Dec17

Jan18

Feb18

Mar18

Apr18

May18

Crude Oil 10.1% 50 46 48 50 53 55 60 61 66 63 64 69 73

US

D/B

arr

el

SG

D/T

on

ne

US

D/T

on

ne

LHS: Left Hand Side y-axisRHS: Right Hand Side y-axis

SINGAPORE REPORT | JUNE 2018

COMMODITY PRICE TRENDS

Average 1Q 18 / 4Q 17 change

May17

Jun17

Jul17

Aug17

Sep17

Oct17

Nov17

Dec17

Jan18

Feb18

Mar18

Apr18

May18P

Steel REO 2.6% 610 608 644 752 776 761 760 783 790 784 790 780 781

Average 1Q 18 / 4Q 17 change

May17

Jun17

Jul17

Aug17

Sep17

Oct17

Nov17

Dec17

Jan18

Feb18

Mar18

Apr18

May18

Copper 2.2% 5591 5699 5678 6477 6582 6796 6825 6800 7079 7001 6795 6838 6821

Aluminium 2.8% 1913 1886 1903 2029 2100 2130 2100 2070 2214 2184 2076 2245 2290

Copper (LHS)

Aluminium (RHS)

p: preliminary

Data Source: London Metal Exchange (LME)

40

50

60

70

80

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18

S$/m3S$/Tonne

BASIC CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

Data Source: BCA

Prices of rebar other than 16-32mm dimensions may be subject to surcharge.Prices of granite and concreting sand exclude local delivery charges to concrete batching plants.The market prices of rebar (without cut & bend) are based on fi xed price supply contracts with contract period 6 months or less.The market prices of ready mixed concrete are based on contracts with non-fi xed price, fi xed price and market retail price for Grade 40 Pump.

Note:

CURRENCYEXCHANGE RATES

Data Sources: IMF, Oanda

Note: Exchange rates above are expressed in terms of currency units per US Dollar; averaged monthly from daily unit rates.

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CURRENCY UNITS PER USD

UNIT DEC 17 JAN 18 FEB 18 MAR 18 APR 18 MAY 18

Singapore Dollar $ SGD 1 1.35 1.32 1.32 1.31 1.31 1.34

Euro € EUR 1 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.85

U.K. Pound Sterling ₤ GBP 1 0.75 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.74

Australian Dollar $ AUD 1 1.31 1.26 1.27 1.29 1.30 1.33

Chinese Yuan ¥ CNY 1 6.59 6.43 6.31 6.32 6.30 6.37

Malaysian Ringgit RM MYR 1 4.08 3.96 3.92 3.90 3.89 3.96

Japanese Yen ¥ JPY 100 1.13 1.11 1.08 1.06 1.08 1.10

Myanmar Kyat K MMK 100 13.72 13.55 13.41 13.48 13.39 13.57

Indonesian Rupiah Rp IDR 1000 13.56 13.38 13.59 13.76 13.80 14.06

Vietnamese Dong ₫ VND 1000 22.82 22.64 22.67 22.73 22.72 22.86

Average 1Q 18 / 4Q 17 change

May 17

Jun 17

Jul17

Aug 17

Sep17

Oct17

Nov 17

Dec17

Jan18

Feb 18

Mar18

Apr18

May 18P

Conc. Sand 0.9% 16.9 16.6 17.0 18.0 17.8 17.4 17.5 17.9 18.0 17.8 17.5 17.5 17.5

Granite (20mm) 1.6% 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.6 16.8 16.7 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.0 16.9 17.4

Cement 0.9% 76.2 76.5 76.0 74.8 75.3 75.8 75.4 75.4 76.1 75.7 76.9 77.1 77.6

Ready Mixed Conc. 1.8% 80.2 80.8 81.2 81.3 82.2 82.2 82.3 83.3 84.2 83.7 84.3 84.3 84.3

SINGAPORE REPORT | JUNE 2018

MATERIAL PRICE TRENDS

p: preliminaryLHS: Left Hand Side y-axis

RHS: Right Hand Side y-axis

Granite (LHS)Concreting Sand (LHS)

Cement (LHS)

Ready-Mixed Concrete (RHS)

p: preliminary

LOCALCONSTRUCTION

PRICES

Notes:CFA - Construction Floor Area is the area of all building enclosed covered spaces measured to the outside face of the external walls including covered basement and above ground car park areas.

GFA - Gross Floor Area is the area of building enclosed covered spaces excluding car park and driveway areas calcu- lated for purposes of planning submissions.

All Singapore construction prices stated herein are as at 1st Quarter 2018, and include a general allowance for founda-tion, carpark and external works. The price ranges herein are indicative and due consideration should be given to the impact of varying design, specifications, size, location and nature of each project when utilising this information. Prices described here may not fully reflect the extent of current market forces and tendering conditions on any specific project.

Exclusions:• Land cost • Legal and professional fees • Development charges • Authority fees • Finance costs • Loose furniture, fit-tings and works of art (unless otherwise stated) • Tenancy work • Site infrastructure work • Diversion of existing services • Green Mark cost premiums • Resident site staff cost • Models and prototypes • Future cost escalation • Goods and Services Tax

Disclaimer: While Rider Levett Bucknall LLP (“RLB”) has endeavoured to ensure the accuracy of the information and materials in this report (the “Materials”), it does not warrant its accuracy, adequacy, completeness or reasonableness and expressly disclaims liability for any errors in, or omissions therefrom. RLB shall not be liable for any damage, loss or expense whatsoever arising out of or in connection with the use or reliance on the Materials. The Materials are pro-vided for general information only. Professional advice should be obtained for your particular factual situation before making any decision. The Materials may not, in any medium, be reproduced, published, adapted, altered or otherwise used in whole or in part in any manner without the prior written consent of RLB.

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DEVELOPMENT TYPE COST PER CFA

S$/m2

LANDED RESIDENTIAL

Terrace House 2,300 – 2,700

Semi-detached House 2,400 – 3,250

Detached House 3,400 – 5,600

Cluster Housing 2,400 – 2,950

INSTITUTIONAL

Institution of Higher Learning

2,750 – 3,450

Medical Institution 4,000 – 5,450

INDUSTRIAL

Single Storey Warehouse 1,100 – 1,600

Light Industrial Building 1,200 – 1,700

Heavy Industrial Building 1,450 – 2,000

CAR PARK

Above Grade Car Park 700 – 1,400

Basement Car Park 1,500 – 2,250

HEALTHCARE

Nursing Home 1,700 – 3,150

Medical Centre 2,900 – 3,300

Hospital 3,500 – 3,800

SINGAPORE REPORT | JUNE 2018

DEVELOPMENT TYPE COST PER CFA COST PER GFA

S$/m2 S$/m2

OFFICE

Standard (outside CBD) 2,000 – 3,200 2,500 – 4,100

Standard (within CBD) 2,050 – 3,300 2,950 – 4,350

Prestige (within CBD) 2,950 – 4,150 4,100 – 5,400

HOTEL (INCLUDING FF&E)

Serviced Apartment 3,050 – 3,550 4,050 – 4,650

Three Star 3,250 – 3,650 4,050 – 4,750

Four Star 3,550 – 4,400 4,650 – 5,800

Five Star 4,250 – 5,500 5,400 – 7,300

RETAIL

Medium Quality 2,000 – 2,850 3,000 – 3,600

Good Quality 2,950 – 3,350 3,700 – 4,400

CONDOMINIUM

Medium Quality Condominium

1,950 – 2,600 2,600 – 3,350

Good Quality Condominium

2,500 – 3,150 3,350 – 4,300

Luxury Quality Condominium

3,200 – 4,350 4,350 – 5,900

Cover: Marina Bay Sand Integrated Resort at night

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