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"Single CMO" Management Committee 19 March 2009
The European pigmeat sector
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 2
Development of the Community average market price for pig carcases
115
125
135
145
155
165
175
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Pri
ce i
n E
uro
/10
0 k
g
2006 2007 2008 2009 5 yr Avg (03-07)
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 3
Percentual change in Pig prices February 2009
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
BE BGCZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SV UK EU
Diff
eren
ce in
%
-1 year
- 1 month
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 4
Development of the Community average market price for piglets
25
30
35
40
45
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
€u
ro/
pie
ce
2006 2007 2008 2009 5 yr avg (03 - 07)
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 5
TOEPFER weekly Cereal and Substitute prices 2008 - 2009
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50
US
$/T
FREIGHT Panamax soja beans USA soja pellets ARG Citrus p.Palm pitkernels EU maïs in US$ C.G.F.
week 10 of 2009 -75% compared to
week 1 of 2008
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 6
Prices for slaughtered pigs minus Compound Feed costs
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ja fe mr ap ma jn jl au se oc no de
Eu
ro/ 100kg
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
Sla
ug
hte
rin
gs in
Mio
To
nn
s
Margin Feed cost PigpricesAvg Margin Slaught. Eu 15 Slaught EU 27
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 7
Comparisson between Compoundfeed
for Pigs and a Cereal-Feedmix
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
| 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 |
Euro
/ T (com
pound feed)
Euro
/ 100kg (pork
)
margin pig/ comp. Feed (4.4)Cereal-mixCompound feedPig carcaseAvg Margin 95 - 07
forecast
forecast
price forecast
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 8
10 605 No data communicated. Legal delivery date 15 FebruaryForecast on basis of data communicated by other MS
-19.8% MS with large decreases
Gross indigenous production forecasts on pigs 1000 heads (animals)
EU de es dk fr nl pl it be uk othertime2007q01 64 912 10 967 10 473 6 782 6 774 5 614 6 480 3 313 2 779 2 242 9 4882008q01 65 352 11 393 10 727 7 000 6 622 5 688 6 100 3 334 2 674 2 196 9 6182009q01 63 093 11 299 10 191 6 900 6 564 5 675 5 100 3 400 2 595 2 268 9 102
-3.5% -0.8% -5.0% -1.4% -0.9% -0.2% -16.4% 2.0% -3.0% 3.3% -5.4%
2007q02 61 800 10 658 9 733 6 204 6 266 5 329 6 490 2 992 2 519 2 246 9 3632008q02 61 773 11 135 9 624 6 300 6 315 5 571 5 900 3 000 2 399 2 193 9 3362009q02 60 454 10 937 9 686 6 400 6 177 5 550 5 140 3 001 2 500 2 191 8 873
-2.1% -1.8% 0.6% 1.6% -2.2% -0.4% -12.9% 0.0% 4.2% -0.1% -5.0%
2007q03 62 660 11 193 10 074 6 328 6 411 5 473 6 030 2 947 2 582 2 112 9 5102008q03 61 929 11 242 9 643 6 493 6 495 5 648 5 300 3 022 2 647 2 151 9 2882009q03 60 845 11 281 9 474 6 600 6 309 5 625 5 180 2 959 2 570 2 218 8 629
-1.7% 0.3% -1.7% 1.6% -2.9% -0.4% -2.3% -2.1% -2.9% 3.1% -7.1%
2007q04 70 572 11 838 11 585 6 997 6 677 5 642 5 677 3 566 2 725 2 485 13 3792008q04 67 691 11 629 10 831 6 847 6 609 5 710 4 620 3 674 2 610 2 282 12 8792009q04 66 206 11 069 10 593 6 650 6 420 5 650 5 300 3 570 2 629 2 255 12 070
-2.2% -4.8% -2.2% -2.9% -2.9% -1.1% 14.7% -2.8% 0.7% -1.2% -6.3%
Year2007 259 944 44 655 41 865 26 311 26 128 22 058 24 677 12 818 10 605 9 086 41 7402008 256 744 45 399 40 824 26 640 26 041 22 617 21 920 13 030 10 330 8 823 41 1202009 250 598 44 585 39 943 26 550 25 470 22 500 20 720 12 930 10 294 8 932 38 674
-2.4% -1.8% -2.2% -0.3% -2.2% -0.5% -5.5% -0.8% -0.3% 1.2% -5.9%
Percentage of estimated slaughter2009 100.0% 17.8% 15.9% 10.6% 10.2% 9.0% 8.3% 5.2% 4.1% 3.6% 15.4%
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 9
Slaughter: Quarterly change compared to the same period in the previous year (EU 25/27)
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
Q1 -3.7% 2.6% 5.4% 1.2% -4.0%
Q2 2.0% 1.1% 2.9% -0.3% -2.1%
Q3 0.5% 0.5% 4.2% -1.7% -1.8%
Q4 -0.4% 1.4% 4.7% -4.6% -2.1%
Ann -0.5% 1.0% 4.3% -1.4% -2.5%
2005 2006 2007/25 2008/27 2009
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 10
December 2008: Provisional data 6 088 Calculation DG AGRI1000 heads (animals) No data yet communicated for this survey (legal date 15 February)EU 27 de es fr pl dk nl it ro be uk Other
Germany Spain France Poland Denmark NetherlandsItaly Romania Belgium United Kingdom
Total of the pig population2005 159 115 26 989 24 889 15 123 18 711 12 604 11 000 9 200 6 604 6 253 4 726 23 0162006 161 929 26 821 26 219 15 009 18 813 13 613 11 220 9 281 6 815 6 304 4 731 23 1042007 159 724 27 113 26 061 14 654 17 621 13 170 11 710 9 273 6 565 6 200 4 671 22 6862008 152 975 26 719 26 290 14 796 14 242 12 195 11 735 9 252 6 149 6 129 4 550 20 918
-4.2% -1.5% 0.9% 1.0% -19.2% -7.4% 0.2% -0.2% -6.3% -1.2% -2.6% -7.8%
Piglets with a live weight of less than 20 kg2005 43 263 6 878 6 750 3 708 6 255 4 102 4 170 1 716 852 1 528 1 244 6 0602006 43 465 6 682 6 833 3 700 5 847 4 435 4 470 1 740 917 1 622 1 167 6 0522007 43 134 6 740 7 060 3 623 5 541 4 251 4 680 1 728 903 1 561 1 216 5 8312008 40 685 6 551 7 149 3 542 4 295 4 071 4 555 1 691 848 1 527 1 128 5 328
-5.7% -2.8% 1.3% -2.2% -22.5% -4.2% -2.7% -2.1% -6.1% -2.2% -7.2% -8.6%
Pigs with a live weight of 20 kg and less than 50 kg2005 37 520 6 733 5 324 4 205 4 574 3 543 1 885 1 858 1 311 1 331 1 206 5 5512006 38 627 6 614 6 264 4 042 4 795 3 845 1 840 1 880 1 404 1 303 1 221 5 4202007 37 597 6 618 5 892 4 044 4 460 3 578 1 950 1 861 1 395 1 283 1 170 5 3452008 36 353 6 658 5 792 3 998 3 778 3 433 2 030 1 852 1 310 1 273 1 210 5 019
-3.3% 0.6% -1.7% -1.1% -15.3% -4.1% 4.1% -0.5% -6.1% -0.8% 3.4% -6.1%
Sows - total2005 15 451 2 504 2 593 1 274 1 808 1 340 1 100 722 494 584 505 2 5292006 15 569 2 467 2 689 1 264 1 786 1 414 1 050 772 521 578 524 2 5052007 14 904 2 418 2 663 1 210 1 587 1 353 1 060 754 443 567 498 2 3522008 13 977 2 296 2 542 1 201 1 279 1 289 1 025 756 398 546 488 2 157
-6.2% -5.0% -4.5% -0.7% -19.4% -4.7% -3.3% 0.3% -10.1% -3.7% -2.0% -8.3%
Mated sows2005 10 533 1 760 1 716 910 1 187 838 725 591 306 460 363 1 6782006 10 646 1 746 1 874 903 1 144 870 700 622 316 455 370 1 6452007 10 105 1 712 1 782 861 999 825 710 590 264 451 363 1 5502008 9 616 1 633 1 698 860 823 803 710 613 237 440 359 1 441
-4.8% -4.6% -4.7% -0.1% -17.6% -2.7% 0.0% 3.9% -10.1% -2.5% -1.1% -7.0%
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 11
Development of Total pig number in the EU Member Statesin 1000 heads Sorted on 2008
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
de es fr pl dk nl it ro be uk hu at pt cz se ie fi gr lt bg sk cy si lv ee lu mt
2005
2006
2007
2008
Nine largest pig producing MS (DE - BE, more than 5 Mio animals)stand for 83,3% of EU production
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 12
Change in Pigherd 2005 - 2008
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
Piglets Y. Pigs Sows M. Sows
in 1
00
0 H
ea
ds
07/08 08/09Total -1.4% -4.2%Piglets -0.8% -5.7%Y. pigs -2.7% -3.3%Sows -4.3% -6.2%M. Sows -5.1% -4.8%
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 13
Private StorageHorizontal regulation (EC) N° 826/2008Specific regulations (EC) N° 1278/2008 1329/2008
start : December 2008Storage periods : 3, 4, 5 and 6 monthsSuspension periodend :
Quantity concluded 556 TonsQuantity put into store 10 Tons% stored compared with concluded 1.8%Quantity taken out the store 0 TonsRemains in store 10 Tons
Maximum financial consequence 0.211 mio €uro (Not taken into account earlier destocking)
Cont. Conc Mis en stock Destock Reste diff a b c d e f h = c - d
IRELAND 546 0 0 0 546UNITED KINGDOM 10 10 0 10 0
T O T A L 556 10 0 10 546
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 14
Weekly average Pigprices 2006 - 2009EU, Brazil and the US in Euro/ 100kg carcase
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
weeksEU
US
Braz. avg
EU = w eighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meatUS = w eekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iow a-Minn. 167-187lbBR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 15
Pigprices in US and EU and forecastsEU forecast: Working group priceforecast pigmeat
US Forecast: Feedstuffs
70
95
120
145
170
195
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 |
€u
ro/ 1
00k
g
EU
US
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 16
Money makes the world go around
€ $ Pуб ₤ 圓 ¥ лв R$ etc.
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 17
Index of exchange rate changes to the euroas from 1.1.2008
-35.0%
-25.0%
-15.0%
-5.0%
5.0%
| J an | Feb | March| April | May | J une | J uly | Aug. | Sept | Oct. | Nov | Dec | J an | Feb | Mrch
ronskk
czkplngbp
a negetive index means depreciation of the currency
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 18
Weekly exchange rate US dollar 2005 - 2009
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 |
1 €uro = .......US$
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 19
Index of exchange rate changes to the euroas from 1.1.2008
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
| J an | Feb | March| April | May | J une | J uly | Aug. | Sept | Oct. | Nov | Dec | J an | Feb | Mrch
usd
rub
jpy
a negetive index means depreciation of the currency
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 20
Index of exchange rate €uro/dollar divided by the exchangerate €uro/ Rubleas from 1.1.2008
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
| J an | Feb | March| April | May | J une | J uly | Aug. | Sept | Oct. | Nov | Dec | J an | Feb | Mrch
Index US$ versus the Russian Rouble
a negetive index means depreciation of the currency
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 21
Index of exchange rates US$ and BRL compared to the €uro
January 2001 = 100
90.0
130.0
170.0
210.0
I 2001 I 2002 I 2003 I 2004 I 2005 I 2006 I 2007 I 2008 I 2009 |Real US$
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 22
Trade in Pigmeat
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 23
tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %
USA 4 890 21.6% 3 532 16.3% 5 380 16.6% 9 065 21.0% 21 547 36.1%
Chile 4 261 18.8% 4 994 23.0% 7 568 23.4% 12 347 28.6% 17 132 28.7%
Sw itzerland 8 331 36.8% 4 933 22.7% 8 934 27.6% 10 476 24.2% 12 368 20.7%
Croatia 1 594 7.0% 2 189 10.1% 3 930 12.1% 2 863 6.6% 3 964 6.6%
Serbia 0.0% 716 3.3% 523 1.6% 1 217 2.8% 1 181 2.0%
Russia 84 0.4% 280 1.3% 313 1.0% 280 0.6% 583 1.0%
Canada 61 0.3% 79 0.4% 252 0.8% 2 660 6.2% 53 0.1%EXTRA EU15-25-27 22 612 21 730 32 368 43 217 59 724
% change - 4% + 49% + 34% + 38.2%
2004 2005 2006 Jan-déc 082007
EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
OriginsOrigins
Nov 2008 figures not available for Latvia
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 24
EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (Tonnes prod. weight)
5 380 9 06521 5477 568
12 347
17 132
8 934
10 476
12 368
6 033
7 24932 368
43 217
59 724
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
Jan-déc 06 Jan-déc 07 Jan-déc 08
Tonn
es (p
rodu
ct w
eigh
t)
USA Chile SwitzerlandCroatia Serbia Other destinations
Nov 2008 figures not available for Latvia
IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (1000 EUR)
14 96023 773
52 42521 935
28 737
41 901
21 710
19 533
13 454
64 167
79 283
119 823
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
Jan-déc 06 Jan-déc 07 Jan-déc 08
1,00
0 E
UR
USA Chile SwitzerlandCroatia Serbia Other destinations
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 25
Imports of selected PIG products
0
1 500
3 000
4 500
6 000
| 2006 | 2007 | 2008
in T
on
ne
s (
pro
du
ct
we
igh
t)
FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS
Nov 2008 figures not available for Latvia
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 26
Compared
tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to 07
Russia 418 176 23.5% 485 437 25.0% 687 402 32.9% 647 057 33.9% 764 117 30.0% + 18%
Hong Kong 157 424 8.8% 139 578 7.2% 138 554 6.6% 243 203 12.7% 454 242 17.8% + 87%
Japan 360 621 20.3% 305 731 15.8% 249 380 11.9% 232 951 12.2% 236 120 9.3% + 1%
Ukraine 21 203 1.2% 47 814 2.5% 9 789 0.5% 2 757 0.1% 188 006 7.4% +++
China 53 167 3.0% 70 788 3.7% 53 785 2.6% 86 291 4.5% 146 138 5.7% + 69%
South Korea 111 770 6.3% 117 671 6.1% 142 599 6.8% 137 443 7.2% 115 693 4.5% - 16%
Croatia 41 939 2.4% 59 964 3.1% 56 785 2.7% 56 171 2.9% 63 706 2.5% + 13%
USA 86 454 4.9% 72 843 3.8% 67 048 3.2% 66 527 3.5% 61 288 2.4% - 8%
Belarus 30 247 1.7% 48 506 2.5% 59 586 2.9% 10 529 0.6% 55 090 2.2% +++
Angola 29 379 1.6% 34 356 1.8% 40 757 2.0% 48 637 2.5% 48 922 1.9% + 1%
Australia 29 145 1.6% 28 126 1.5% 29 579 1.4% 34 583 1.8% 45 604 1.8% + 32%
Philippines 28 066 1.6% 20 896 1.1% 23 321 1.1% 34 217 1.8% 40 911 1.6% + 20%EXTRA EU15-25-27 1 780 568 1 938 455 2 089 363 1 910 695 2 550 904
% change + 9% + 8% - 9% + 33.5%
2004 2005 2006 Jan-déc 082007
EU exports of selected PIG products:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
DestinationsDestinations
Nov 2008 figures not available for Latvia
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 27
EU exports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes prod. weight)
687 402 647 037 764 117
138 554 243 203454 242249 380 232 951
236 120146 138950 452 698 456
762 282
188 006
2 089 3631 910 695
2 550 904
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
Jan-déc 06 Jan-déc 07 Jan-déc 08
Tonn
es (p
rodu
ct w
eigh
t)
Russia Hong Kong Japan
China Ukraine Other destinations
Nov 2008 figures not available for Latvia
EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)
860 896 832 7421 136 134
92 799 179 932
412 355777 545 729 481
738 215
126 447258 8211 685 556 1 383 769
1 564 797
3 458 6713 196 833
4 236 771
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
4 000 000
4 500 000
Jan-déc 06 Jan-déc 07 Jan-déc 08
1,00
0 E
UR
Russia Hong Kong Japan
China Ukraine Other destinations
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 28
Nov 2008 figures not available for Latvia
Exports of selected PIG products
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
| 2006 | 2007 | 2008
in T
on
ne
s (
pro
du
ct
we
igh
t)
FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 29
Nov 2008 figures not available for Latvia
46
13
5
59
72
0
71
93
7
51
64
1
63
80
0
55
91
8
56
07
7
54
49
9
72
27
6
22
61
2
21
73
0
32
36
8
43
21
7
59
72
4
88
1 0
11
94
3 4
05
1 0
83
23
0
1 2
38
13
8 1 5
56
96
1
1 5
45
90
7
1 3
31
80
8
1 5
26
56
3
1 5
09
30
2
1 7
80
56
8
1 9
38
45
5
2 0
89
36
3
1 9
10
69
5
2 5
50
90
4
0
250 000
500 000
750 000
1 000 000
1 250 000
1 500 000
1 750 000
2 000 000
2 250 000
2 500 000
2 750 000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan-déc08
To
nn
es
pro
du
ct
we
igh
t
IMPORTS EXPORTS
EU trade of PIG products
DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 30
Cumulated quantity of weekly requests
for Export licenses in the Pigmeat sector
for Gatt year 2008 - 2009
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
To
nn
Cumulative quantity available
cumulative attributions