Skills: noneConcepts: technology refinement versus technology shift, progress in processing and memory, storage, and communication technology, pre-electronic computers

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Technology progress

Where does this topic fit?

• Internet concepts– Applications– Technology– Implications

• Internet skills– Application development– Content creation– User skills

Information technologies

Processing and memory

Storage

Communication

Technology refinement and technology shifts

Technology refinement

1905

Technology refinement

1903

First flight

Technology shift

Technology shift

Storage progress

960 bits 274,877,906,944 bits

Shift or refinement?

Storage technology shift

From punch cards to magnetic recording

1956• 5 million 6-bit characters• 50 two-foot-diameter disks

2009• 320 billion 8-bit bytes• 1.8 inch disk

Technology improvement – magnetic storage

Shift or refinement?

Storagetechnology shifts

Four ways to store bits – storage technology shifts

Processing and memory progress

8 on/off switches 2 billion on/off switches

Shift or refinement?

Communication progress

100 bits per second

40 billion bits per second

Progress enables new data types

Data type Decade

Numeric 1950s

Alphanumeric 1960s

Text 1970s

Image 1990s

Speech 2000s

Music 2000s

Video 2000s

HD video 2010s

Charles Babbage

IBM 602Vannevar Bush

Atansoff-Berry

Before the programmable, electronic computer

The bottom line

Summary

Self-study questions

1. We looked at information storage, processing and communication technology. What other technologies are undergoing dramatic improvement?

2. If the first cars got only 1 mile per gallon, and that doubled every two years, what would our mileage have been 20 years later? Thirty years later?

3. What have been some of the applications made possible by improved IT in the last five years?

4. What have been some of the implications of IT progress for individuals? 5. What have been some of the implications of IT progress for

organizations? 6. What have been some of the implications of IT progress for society? 7. What sorts of changes might you see during your lifetime?

ResourcesRay Kurzweil is controversial and very optimistic about the technology progress (IT and other) and its implications for the future: http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns

There is much more on Kurzweil’s Web site: http://www.kurzweilai.net/

Gordon Moore published a widely quoted article predicting that the number of transistors on an economically feasible integrated chip would double every 18-24 months. This is called “Moore’s Law:” ftp://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf

For more on Moore’s Law, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law

Wolfram Alpha Moore’s law calculator: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=moore's+law

A short article on the discovery of the transistor: http://focus.aps.org/story/v23/st16

New York Times article on an early demonstration of television: http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/Test-TV-NYT-8apr27.htm

Video of Ivan Sutherland demonstrating Sketchpad: http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ivan+sutherland+sketchpad&aq=f

Two videos on the first transistor and the way transistors work: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdYHljZi7yshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvrjIJw3OSU&feature=related