Slide 1 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 TIGGE at ECMWF David Richardson, Head, Meteorological Operations Section [email protected] Slide

Slide 1

GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011

TIGGE at ECMWF

David Richardson,

Head, Meteorological Operations Section

[email protected]

Slide 1

mailto:[email protected]

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ECMWF TIGGE archive

The TIGGE database now contains five years of global EPS data

Holds more than 520 terabytes (2.6 billion fields).

There are around 1300 registered users of the TIGGE data portal

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ECMWF TIGGE archive

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10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Number of active users

Series1

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ECMWF TIGGE archive

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0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Data volumes (GBytes)

Retrieved

Delivered

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ECMWF TIGGE archive - changes

BoM, KMA stopped providing EPS to TIGGE archive

KMA now testing sending higher resolution EPS

New data:

JMA 00 UTC control step 0 (as analysis)

CMA analysis (06, 18)??

problem with database for 1 week – needed to ask centres to resend. All gaps filled. Thanks to all who did that

Access – new batch access to TIGGE archive (python, perl)

next generation data portal under development

Planned GEOWOW developments:

timeseries for small number of fields

TIGGE-LAM, netcdf

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GEOWOW (GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water) is an EU-funded FP7 project that will begin in September 2011.

GEOWOW will propose and validate a multi-disciplinary, distributed architectural model federating Earth Observation and other Earth Science data holdings and put this model forward as the European contribution to the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Common Infrastructure.

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GEOWOW

The GEO Capacity Building Strategy focuses on three elements: human, institutional and infrastructure.

The Weather component of the GEOWOW project will address all three by improving the access to THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data and developing and demonstrating products using this data in collaboration with users in developing countries, including providing education and training.

GEOWOW will significantly enhance the accessibility of the TIGGE archive at ECMWF for the wider user community, in particular the ability to efficiently access long time series of forecast data at user-specified locations.

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GEOWOW

3 years: September 2011 – August 2014

Co-ordinated by ESA

Total funding from EU: 7 M euros

For weather: 1.1 M euros

ECMWF

Met Office

Météo-France

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

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The operational forecast system

High resolution deterministic forecast: twice per day16 km 91-level, to 10 days ahead

Ensemble forecast (EPS): twice daily51 members, 32/65 km 62-level, to 15 days ahead

extended to 32 days once a week (Monthly forecast)

Ocean waves: twice daily Global: 10 days ahead at 28 km Limited Area Wave (LAW): 5 days ahead at 10 km Ensemble: 15 days ahead at 55 km

Seasonal forecast: once a month41-members, 125 km 62 levels, to 7 months ahead a sub-set ensemble of 11 members is run for 13 months every quarter

GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 Slide 9

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The operational ECMWF EPSThe operational version of the EPS includes 51 forecasts with resolution:

• TL639L62 (~32km, 62 levels) from day 0 to 10,

• TL319L62 (~64km, 62 levels) from day 10 to 15 (32 at 00UTC on Thursdays).

Initial uncertainties are simulated by adding to the unperturbed analyses a combination of T42L62 singular vectors, computed to optimize total energy growth over a 48h time interval (OTI), and perturbations generated using the new ECMWF Ensemble Data Assimilation (EDA) system.

Model uncertainties are simulated by adding stochastic perturbations to the tendencies due to parameterized physical processes (SPPT scheme) and using a stochastic backscatter (SPBS) scheme.

The EPS is run twice a day, at 00 and 12 UTC; the 00 UTC run is fully coupled to the HOPE ocean model after day 10.

NH

SH

TR

Definition of the perturbed ICs

1 1 2 2 5050 5151…..

Products Products

Slide 11

Summary of EPS changes Initial perturbations:

2009 : Combination of Singular Vectors (SVs) optimised in two 48-hour windows: [t0, t0+48h] and [t0-48h, t0]

2011 : Combination of EDA perturbations (diff. between 10 EDA analyses) and SVs optimised in the [t0, t0+48h] window with reduced (50%) amplitude

Simulation of model uncertainty: 2009 : SPPT with 1 spatial scale, white-noise time variab. with 6-hour time scale

2011 : SPPT with 3 spatial and time scales, red-noise variability in time (Markov chain), plus stochastic backscatter (SPBS)

Slide 12

Since 22 June 2010, differences between 6h perturbed forecasts from the ECMWF Ensemble Data Assimilation system have been combined with singular vectors to generate the EPS initial perturbations

The ten TL399L91 EDA perturbed analyses are generated by randomly perturbing the observations and the SST, and by running the forecast model with the SPPT stochastic scheme. The random perturbations are defined by sampling a normal distribution with the observation error standard deviation

Simulation of initial uncertainty using EDA

Since 18 May 2011, the EDA has been used to specify the background errors “of the day” in the high-resolution 4D-Var

U850 background error standard deviationRandomization method (ope, left) – EDA (cy36r4, right)

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500 km6 h

1000 km3 d

2000 km30 d

Simulation of model uncertainty: multi-scale SPPT

Since Oct 1998, the EPS has included a stochastic scheme designed to simulate random model errors due to parameterized physical processes (SPPT).

Since Nov 2010, the scheme includes a multi-scale pattern generator to account for parameterization errors on multiple spatial and temporal scales.

(from M Leutbecher)

Slide 14

Since Nov 2010, a stochastic backscatter scheme (SPBS) is also used in the EPS:

Rationale: a fraction of the dissipated energy is backscattered upscale and acts as streamfunction forcing for the resolved-scale flow (Shutts & Palmer 2004, Shutts 2005, Berner et al 2009)

Streamfunction forcing is given by:

Recent improvements/updates include:

Revised convective dissipation calculation

Revised dissipation rate smoothing

Changed pressure dependency of vertical correlations

Option to force only part of the spectrum [reduces computational cost and avoids problems detected with small scale forcing]

Streamfunction forcing

Backscatter ratio

Total dissipation

rate

Pattern generat

or

Simulation of model uncertainty: SPBS

Slide 15


Recent operational changes 2010-2011

24 June 2010 (cycle 36r2) includes

Changes to EPS initial-time perturbations

9 November 2010 (cycle 36r4) includes

New cloud scheme

New surface analysis schemes are introduced for snow and soil moisture

EPS: revised model uncertainty; retuned initial perturbation amplitudes

18 May 2011 (cycle 37r2) includes

Data assimilation changes

Technical change: model-level data in GRIB-2 format

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EPS probability skill, RPSS, T850, N hem

Monthly score and 12-month running mean (bold) of Ranked Probability Skill Score for EPS forecasts of T850 at day 3 (blue), 5 (red) and 7 (black) for N hem

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-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

N Hem Extratrop (lat 20.0 to 90.0, lon -180.0 to 180.0) | 00UTC,12UTC,beginning\HG 0.8\(12mMA = 12 months moving average)

Ranked probability skill score

temperature 850hPa

ECMWF EPS verification

T+72

T+120

T+168

T+72 12hMA

T+120 12hMA

T+168 12hMA

Slide 17


EPS probability skill, RPSS, T850, Europe

Monthly score and 12-month running mean (bold) of Ranked Probability Skill Score for EPS forecasts of T850 at day 3 (blue), 5 (red) and 7 (black) for Europe

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-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

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0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Europe (lat 35.0 to 75.0, lon -12.5 to 42.5) | 00UTC,12UTC,beginning\HG 0.8\(12mMA = 12 months moving average)

Ranked probability skill score

temperature 850hPa

ECMWF EPS verification

T+72

T+120

T+168

T+72 12hMA

T+120 12hMA

T+168 12hMA

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EPS skill T850 NH

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-0.1

0

0.1

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0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Forecast Day

oper_an ti enfo prod | Mean method: fair | Population: 180,180,180,180,180,180,180,180,180,180,179,179,179,179,179

Date: 20101201 00UTC to 20110228 12UTC

N Hem Extratrop (lat 20.0 to 90.0, lon -180.0 to 180.0)

Continuous ranked probability skill score

850hPa temperature

ECMWF

NCEP

UKMO

CMC

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EPS spread/skill 850 wind tropics

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0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

m/s

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Forecast Day

Mean method: standard

oper_an od enfo 0001

Date: 20081201 00UTC to 20110228 12UTC

Tropics (lat -20.0 to 20.0, lon -180.0 to 180.0)

850hPa wind speed

Ensemble Mean

rmse djf2011

spread djf2011

rmse djf2010

spread djf2010

rmse djf2009

spread djf2009

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EPS skill 850 wind tropics

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-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Forecast Day

oper_an od enfo 0001 | Mean method: standard

Date: 20061201 00UTC to 20110228 12UTC

Tropics (lat -20.0 to 20.0, lon -180.0 to 180.0)

Continuous ranked probability skill score

850hPa wind speed

2011 00,12utc

2010 00,12utc

2009 00,12utc

2008 00,12utc

2007 00,12utc

Slide 21

EPS probabilistic precipitation skill


CRPSS for 24-h Precipitation, ExTrop, ECMWF, 20010115-20110415

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12Year

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Lead

tim

e (d

ays)

0.05

0.10

0.15

24-h Precip, 20101101 to 20110430, ExTrop

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Lead time (days)

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

CR

PS

S

ECMWF ( 0.178)JMA ( 0.066)UKMO ( 0.037)NCEP (-0.008)

Slide 22


Product Development

New parameters from deterministic forecast Height of lowest cloud base

Height of 0°C level

New parameters from EPS L, M, H cloud cover

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New EPS clustering

New clustering operational since 16 November

Graphical products on the ECMWF website at:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/newclusters/newclusters/

Cluster fields available via dissemination

The disseminated products are based on the day 5-7 time range (time steps 120, 132, 144, 156 and 168)

Old clusters will be switched off later this year

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New EPS clustering

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Reference step t+120-168 Domain 75/340/30/40 Cont. in cluster=2 Det. in cluster=2Tuesday 7 June 2011 00UTC ECMWF EPS Cluster scenario - 500 hPa Geopotential

544

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Cluster: 1(of 3), population: 22, repres. member: 21forecast t+120 VT:Sunday 12 June 2011 00UTC

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Cluster: 1(of 3), population: 22, repres. member: 21forecast t+144 VT:Monday 13 June 2011 00UTC

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Cluster: 1(of 3), population: 22, repres. member: 21forecast t+168 VT:Tuesday 14 June 2011 00UTC

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544

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Slide 25

Regime transitions

EPS forecast of large-scale weather regimes. Daily time series for November 2010 to April 2011 of the number of EPS clusters and observed climatological regimes (coloured circles). The climatological regime associated with each cluster is indicated by the colour of the bar: blue - positive NAO pattern, green - negative NAO, red – blocking, violet - Atlantic ridge. The EPS clusters are computed over forecast days 5-7.

Slide 25GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011

2DEC2010

4 6 8 1012141618202224262830 1JAN2011

3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931 2FEB

4 6 8 10121416182022242628 2MAR

4 6 8 1012141618202224262830 1APR

3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729 1MAY

3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729310

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

n. o

f clu

ster

s

2DEC2010

4 6 8 1012141618202224262830 1JAN2011

3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931 2FEB

4 6 8 10121416182022242628 2MAR

4 6 8 1012141618202224262830 1APR

3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729 1MAY

3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729310

40

80

120

160

met

res

reference step: t+ 168new clusters 500hPa geopotential EXPVER=0001

Slide 26

Climatological regimes


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Tropical cyclones

Tracking of tropical cyclones developing during forecast (medium-range and monthly products on web)

Operational tracks – deterministic up to 1 hour earlier Under test: replacement of operational tracker (will include

tracks beyond 5 days)

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Tropical cyclones

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0000

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E

tracks: black=OPER, green=CTRL, blue=EPS numbers: observed positions at t+..hProbability that 04W will pass within 120km radius during the next 120 hours

20110520 12 UTC

5

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Typhoon Songda 19-29 May 2011

Operational tracker

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Tropical cyclones

Slide 29

0°N

10°N

20°N

30°N

40°N

50°N

0°N

10°N

20°N

30°N

40°N

50°N

100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E

100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E

0°N

10°N

20°N

30°N

40°N

50°N

0°N

10°N

20°N

30°N

40°N

50°N

100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E

100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E

tracks: solid=OPER; dot=CTRLProbability that 04W will pass within 120 km radius during the next 240 hoursDate 20110520 12 UTC @ ECMWF

+240 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +216 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +192 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +168 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +144 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +120 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +096 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +072 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +048 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +024 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

Intensity category in colours: TD[up to 16] TS[17-32] HR1 [33-42] HR2 [43-48] HR3 [ >48 m/s] List of ensemble members numbers forecast Tropical Cyclone

5-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 > 90 %

920930940950960970980990

100010101020

Fri 20 Sat 21 Sun 22 Mon 23 Tue 24 Wed 25 Thu 26 Fri 27 Sat 28 Sun 29 Mon 30May2011

Mean Sea Level Pressure in Tropical Cyclone Centre (hPa)

0

10

20

30

40

50


10m Wind Speed (m/s)

0

15

30

45

60

75

90


TD[up to 16] TS [17-32] HR1[33-42] HR2 [43-48] HR3 [> 48 m/s]Probability (%) of Tropical Cyclone Intensity falling in each categoryTD[up to 16] TS [17-32] HR1[33-42] HR2 [43-48] HR3 [> 48 m/s]Probability (%) of Tropical Cyclone Intensity falling in each category

Slide 30

Track plumes for the TC are plotted for the EPS members, T1279 and Control. Each colour represents 24h forecast interval (EPS)

0-24h 24-48h 48-72h 72-96h 96-120h 120-144h 144-168h


Slide 31


Product Development

Extra-tropical cyclone products (web products)

Surface weather parameters (new web plots)

Extension of EFI

Slide 31

Slide 32

ecCharts – new interactive web plots


Documents

Slide 1 GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 TIGGE at ECMWF David Richardson, Head, Meteorological Operations Section [email protected] Slide