Slouching Toward Bethlehem?

Islamist Politics, The New “New World Order, and the

War on Terrorism….

• Rise in Fundamentalist movements across religions

• Transformations in States

The Oslo Accords, 1993-94• “Land for Peace” treaties between Israel and the

PLO• PLO recognition of Israel, • Israel recognition of Palestinian State in Gaza

and the West Bank

Of course, the devil is in the

details….

Israeli Peace Movement pushes negotiations

• Yitzak Rabin elected on peace platorm following 1982 invasion of Lebanon, Kahan report on Sabra and Shatila refugee camps.

• Film trailer, “The Tank” 2009 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-_kE5QD_W4• Film trailer, “Waltz with Bashir” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWo8U5J0XeY

• Kahan Report 1983 “The Commission asserted that Israel had indirect responsibility for the massacre: Prime Minister Menachem Begin was found responsible for not exercising greater involvement in the matter; Defense Minister Ariel Sharon was found responsible for ignoring the danger of bloodshed when he approved the Phalangists' entry as well as not taking appropriate measures to prevent bloodshed; IDF Chief of Staff Raful Eitan was found responsible for not giving the appropriate orders to prevent the massacre.” (http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/History/kahan.html)

Rabin’s Assassination

by Jewish Fundamental

ist, 1994

Settlements driven as much by changes in the West?

• Robert Fisk documentary, From Beirut to Bosnia, Part 2, “the Road to Palestine”

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_tZM_xCXAM (from 30:00-34, 39:00-41:30)

“Realities on the Ground” since 1994

Expansion of Settlements, The Wall, Control of

Access to Jerusalem and the Dome of the

Rock Mosque, and continued vioilence

form both sides

Why did the PLO negotiate in 1993?• 1987 Founding of Hamas• Both “paramilitary” organization and social

service organization• Coincides with the first Palestinian Intifada”

Late 1980s rough years for States?

One way to look at the shift is the rise in people power

What Makes a State Function? Traditional View: • Control of Borders• Control of Culture (belief in legitimacy of the

State as an entity)• Control of the Economy• Control of Firearms

Second way to think about it is a decline in the ability of the state to exercise control.

1996 Taliban Rise in Aghanistan

• “Collapsed States” ?

Failed State Index, 2013

Al Qaeda as a modern, globalized institution

• 1988 – 89 Bin Laden returns to Saudi Arabia• 1990-91 Sudan

– After Criticizing the Saudi reliance on Western troops he is exiled, moves to Sudan

• 1992-96 Worsening relations with Saudi A, Egypt, Sudan, force him to leave for Afghanistan– 1993 Saudi support for Oslo Accords, Saud moving West – 7 million $ a year family stipend ended

Somalia, Bosnia, Kenya,…1995 World Conflict Map (Carter Center)

1996-2001 Globalization of “Jihad”

• Bin Laden’s financial network still moving money through Pakistan to new group, The Taliban

• By 1996 Taliban control the capital, Kabul• Wars in Chechnya, Dagestan, Bosnia, Sudan,

Somalia, provide recruiting grounds• 1998 African Embassy bombings• 200 USS Cole off the coast of Yemen

Sept. 11, 2011 Classical Guerilla Strategy?

Transformations?

• Rise of Fundamentalism across Religions• Crisis in State Power over traditional sectors

Just something different and more optimistic

• West Bank Story (2005) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgQfCUNf0no

• End of “The Syrian Bride” (2004) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svXetQB_tz0