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5/27/2015
1
B R I A N V A D M A T H I E S E N ,b v m @ p l a n . a a u . d k
E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o n c o n f e r e n c e : T e c h n o l o g y C h a l l e n g e s a n d R e g i o n a l A p p r o a c h e s f o r I n t e g r a t i n g R e n e w a b l e s
a n d E n e r g y S e c u r i t y , T H O N H o t e l B R U S S E L S , M A Y / 2 7 2 0 1 5
S U S T A I N A B L E E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G R E S E A R C H G R O U P , A A L B O R G U N I V E R S I T Y
SMART ENERGY SYSTEMS FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY INTEGRATION –
- HOW CAN ELECTRICITY GRIDS AND DISTRICT HEATING SYSTEMS BE OPTIMISED IN AN INTEGRATED WAY?
1. Key enabling technologies towards 2030?
2. Potential disruptive technology developments looking towards 2030?
3. Main barriers to further integration of variable renewable electricity in a 2020 and 2030 perspective?
2
KEY CHALLENCES
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2
RECOMMENDATIONS I
• Make CHP (and PP) unit regulation depend on wind power input (10-20% wind without loss of efficiency)
• Add large scale heat pumps (and heat storage capacity) to the CHP units (approx. 40 per cent Wind Power)
• Use electricity for transport as much as possible
• Other kinds of flexible demands are of less importance
Surplus Electricity ProductionIncluding grid-stbilisation
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 20 40 60 80 100Wind power per cent
Per
cen
t
Ref
DKVreg
+HPreg
Trans
RECOMMENDATIONS II
• Not much gained -(integration of wind nor profit) from investing in electricity storage options including batteries
• However the inclusion of CHP, heat pumps and transportation units in securing grid stabil ity is essential.
System operational savings (excess electricity price of 13 EUR/MWh) (All technologies have annual costs of 14 Million EUR/year)
0
10
20
30
40
50
HP1EB1
HP2HP3
HP4HP5
HP6EB2
ELC1
ELC2
ELC3
ELC4
EB3H2-
1
CAES1ELC
5H2-
2
CAES2EB4
mill
ion
EU
R/y
ear
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3
RECOMMENDATIONS III
• The kind of flexibil ity one need from a technical point of view (CHP, HP and transport) is the same kind of flexibil ity which is needed to raise profits of exchange in international electricity or gas markets.
• Interconnections will not help the integration of more wind but rather help share capacity and/or force a market opening through.
Marginal trade income
150
200
250
300
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Wind Input (TWh)
Mio
lio
n D
KK
Reference
350 MW HP
CHPregB
CHPregBnet
Costs
RECOMMENDATIONS IV
• In the medium long term perspective RES electricity has to be transformed into RES gases and l iquid fuels (in combination with biomass) to supplement the l imited biomass resource. Such conversion opens for the use of gas storage and l iquid fuel storage.
• Hydrogen should not be used directly and not be used in micro-CHP.
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4
COMBINED HEAT & POWER (CHP) - REGULATION
High Wind Scenario Low Wind Scenario
Electricity
Demand
Hot Water
Demand
Wind Power
CHP Plant
Thermal Storage
Electricity
Demand
Hot Water
Demand
Wind Power
CHP Plant
Thermal Storage
TRANSITION FROM A CENTRALISED ENERGY SYSTEM TO A PARTLY DE-CENTRALISED SYSTEM BASED ON RENEWABLE ENERGY
8
S T A T U S 2 0 1 4 :• > 3 9 % W I N D P O W E R
• M O R E T H A N 1 0 0 . 0 0 0 W I N DT U R B I N E O W N E R S
• H I G H S H A R E O F O F F S H O R E
• 3 0 % D I S T R I B U T E DO P E R A T I O N A N D A P P . 5 0 % F R O M C H P
• M O R E T H A N 6 0 % H A S D I S T R I C T H E A T I N G
• L A R G E S H A R E O F H E A T S A V I N G S
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RENEWABLE ENERGY STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN EUROPE
F L E X I B L E T E C H N O L O G I E S
I N T E G R A T E D E N E R G Y
S Y S T E M S
Savings in Energy
Denmand
Efficiencyimprovements
in energyproduction
Renewableenergy
sources (RES)
STUDY FOR THE EU27
by
Aalborg University David Connolly
Brian Vad Mathiesen
Poul Alberg Østergaard
Bernd Möller
Steffen Nielsen
Henrik Lund
Halmstad UniversityUrban Persson
Daniel Nilsson
Sven Werner
Ecofys Germany GmbHJan Grözinger
Thosmas Boersmans
Michelle Bosquet
PlanEnergiDaniel Trier
STUDY FOR THE EU27
- D I S S E M I N A T I O N O F R E S E A R C H
- E U R E S E A R C H S T R A T E G Y
I N F L U E N C E A N D P R O J E C T S
- K N O W L E D G E A N D T E C H N O L O G Y
T R A N S F E R
HEAT ROADMAP CHINA – N E W H E AT S T R AT E G Y TO R E D U C E E N E R G Y C O N S U M P T I ON TO WAR D S 2 0 3 0
Tsinghua University Weiming XiongYu Wang Xiliang Zhang
Aalborg UniversityBrian Vad MathiesenHenrik LundDavid Connolly
5/27/2015
6
11
Flexible consumption
Electricity storage
CAES systems
Regulation of CHP plants
Electric heating
Heat pumps
Electric cars
Stopping of wind turbines
Production of hydrogen
Transmission abroad
V2G
OPTIONS FOR SYSTEM INTEGRATION
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 10 20 30 40 50
Exc
ess
pro
du
ctio
n (T
Wh
)
Wind power production (TWh)
Open energy system
Ref. CHP reg.
Ref. no CHP reg.
235
240
245
250
255
260
265
270
275
280
285
0 10 20 30 40 50
PE
S e
xcl.
win
d (T
Wh
)
Wind power production (TWh)
Closed energy system
Ref. CHP reg.
Ref. no CHP reg.
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7
Flexible consumption
Electricity storage
CAES systems
Regulation of CHP plants
Electric heating
Heat pumps
Electric cars
Stopping of wind turbines
Production of hydrogen
Transmission abroad
V2G
OPTIONS FOR SYSTEM INTEGRATION
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 10 20 30 40 50
Exc
ess
pro
du
ctio
n (T
Wh
)
Wind power production (TWh)
Open energy system
Ref. CHP reg.
Ref. no CHP reg.
235
240
245
250
255
260
265
270
275
280
285
0 10 20 30 40 50
PE
S e
xcl.
win
d (T
Wh
)
Wind power production (TWh)
Closed energy system
Ref. CHP reg.
Ref. no CHP reg.
P U M P H Y D R O S T O R A G E1 7 5 € / K W H
N A T U R A L G A S U N D E R G R O U N D S T O R A G E
0 . 0 5 € / K W H
O I L T A N K0 . 0 2 € / K W H
T H E R M A L S T O R A G E1 - 4 € / K W H
ENERGY STORAGE
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SMART ENERGY SYSTEMS- THE KEY TO COST-EFFICIENT 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY
• A so le focus on renewab le e lect r ic i ty (smar t gr id ) produc t ion leads to e lec t r i c i t y s to rage and f l ex ib le demand so lu t i ons !
• Look ing a t renewab le e lec t r i c i t y as a pa r t smar t energy sys tems inc lud ing heat ing , indust ry, gas and t ranspor ta t ion opens fo r cheaper and be t te r so lu t i ons…
P O W E R - T O - H E A TP O W E R - T O - G A S
P O W E R - T O - T R A N S P O R T
L E A D S T O :
- E L E C T R I C I YS T O R A G E , - F L E X I B L E D E M A N D S
SMART ENERGY SYSTEMS - ARE CRUCIAL IN 100% RENEWABLEENERGY SYSTEMS
A cross‐sectoral and coherent energy system solution
– Smart Electricity Grids to connect flexible electricity demands such as heat pumps and electric vehicles to the intermittent renewable resources such as wind and solar power.
– Smart Thermal Grids (District Heating and Cooling) to connect the electricity and heating sectors. This enables thermal storage to be utilised for creating additional flexibility and heat losses in the energy system to be recycled.
– Smart Gas Grids to connect the electricity, heating, and transport sectors. This enables gas storage to be utilised for creating additional flexibility. If the gas is refined to a liquid fuel, then liquid fuel storages can also be utilised.
S O L U T I O N
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9
SMART ENERGY SYSTEMS - ARE CRUCIAL IN 100% RENEWABLEENERGY SYSTEMS
A cross‐sectoral and coherent energy system solution
– Smart Electricity Grids to connect flexible electricity demands such as heat pumps and electric vehicles to the intermittent renewable resources such as wind and solar power.
– Smart Thermal Grids (District Heating and Cooling) to connect the electricity and heating sectors. This enables thermal storage to be utilised for creating additional flexibility and heat losses in the energy system to be recycled.
– Smart Gas Grids to connect the electricity, heating, and transport sectors. This enables gas storage to be utilised for creating additional flexibility. If the gas is refined to a liquid fuel, then liquid fuel storages can also be utilised.
S O L U T I O N
S M A R T E N E R G Y S Y S T E M I S D E F I N E D A S A N A P P R O A C H I N W H I C H S M A R T E L E C T R I C I T Y , T H E R M A L A N D G A S G R I D S A R E C O M B I N E D A N D C O O R D I N A T E D T O I D E N T I F Y S Y N E R G I E S B E T W E E N T H E M I N O R D E R T O A C H I E V E A N O P T I M A L S O L U T I O N F O R E A C H I N D I V I D U A L
S E C T O R A S W E L L A S F O R T H E O V E R A L L E N E R G Y S Y S T E M .
Electricity Consumption Capacity
• Twice as high capacity as the reference in 2050
• Incr. share of flexible consumption capacity
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2010 2020 2030 2050 2010 2020 2030 2050
Electricity Consumption Cap
acity [M
W]
Reference CEESA Recommendable
Electric heating
Electrolyzers
Electric vehicles
Flexible demand
Heat pump
Electricity demand
18
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10
Electricity Consumption
• Reduction in traditional electricity demand
• Increase of new flexible demands
• Ensures flexibility for wind integration
‐
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2010 2020 2030 2050 2010 2020 2030 2050
Electricity consumption [TW
h]
Reference CEESA Recommendable
Export
Electric heating
Electrolyzers
Electric vehicles
Flexible demand
Heat pump
Electricity demand
19
100 % RENEWABLE ENERGY SCENARIOS IN THE CEESA PROJECT 2011
T R A N S P O R T : E L E C T R I C I T Y A S M U C H A S P O S S I B L E , B U T G A S A N D L I Q U I D F U E L S A R E N E E D E D T O M A K E A T R A N S I T I O N .
B I O M A S S :. . I S A L I M I T E D R E S O U R C E … A N D C A N N O T C O V E R T H E T R A N S P O R T S E C T O R . …
C O N S E Q U E N C E …… E L E C T R I C I T Y F R O M W I N D A N D O T H E R R E S H O U L D B E C O N V E R T E D I N T O R E - G A S S E S A N D L I Q U I D F U E L S I N T H E L O N G R U N . .
W E C A N R E A C H 1 0 0 % R E N E W A B L E
C O S T A N D F U E L
E F F I C I E N T L Y I N 2 0 5 0
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11
21
ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE ENERGY UNION…..
• CO2‐kvota markets only solve a very small part of the problem and only addresses certain sectors
• New cables does not provide more renewable energy!
• The existing actors may not be able to lift the task (goes against existing business model)
• Energy savings good for society cost but hard to implement
• Existing marginal electricity price markets cannot survive as they are
• Feed‐in‐tariff model under pressure from ignorant civil servants and industry
• Public support and ownership needs a big boost
• S M AR T E N E R G Y D E N M AR K I N 2 0 5 0 ?
• S M AR T E N E R G Y E U R O P E I N 2 0 6 0 ?
W W W . E N E R G Y P L A N . E U
W W W . H E A T R O A D M A P . E U
W W W . S M A R T E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S . E U
W W W . 4 D H . D K
5/27/2015
12
ekstra
23
Electricity Production Capacity
• Increase of RE capacity
• Constant PP/CHP capacity
• Need for high flexibility in PP/CHP production
‐
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
2010 2020 2030 2050 2010 2020 2030 2050
Electricity production cap
acity [M
W]
Reference CEESA Recommendable
PV+Wave
Wind
Condensing PP
CHP, Central
CHP, Decentral
Waste CHP
24
5/27/2015
13
Electricity Production
• Decreased production from PP/CHP
• Increase of total production
• 80% from wind, PV and wave power
‐
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2010 2020 2030 2050 2010 2020 2030 2050
Electricity production [TW
h]
Reference CEESA Recommendable
PV+Wave
Wind
Condensing PP
CHP, Central
CHP, Decentral
Waste CHP
25