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a presentation I have at Quebec recently (18th biennial SMM)
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Determining Highly Suitable/Critical Open Water Habitat for the
Eastern Arctic Bowhead Whale
Benjamin Wheeler, Marianne Gilbert and Stephen Rowe18th Biennial Conference
Society of Marine MammalogyQuébec City, QC
October 16th, 2009
Outline• Introduction
– Background– Research objectives– Approach
• Methods– Available information– Model, concepts, tools/GIS– Assumptions
• Results– Mapping– Definition of Critical Habitat– Habitat relationships
• Discussion • Future Work• Summary
Background
• Bowhead whales– Large, slow moving, slow
growing baleen whale
– Circumpolar
– Highly migratory (fasts in winter, feeds in summer)
– Pagophilic (ice loving)
– Historically heavily exploited
– 1 vs 2 groups in eastern Canada?
– Conservation status • 1 group endangered; 1
threatened 2004
• 1 group special concern (COSEWIC 2009)
• Recovery Planning– Inuit Traditional Bowhead
Study (1995-2000)– Bowhead Conservation
Strategy (NWMB, DFO, WWF) (~1999 – 2003)
– National Eastern Arctic Bowhead Recovery Team (2005 - ?)
Objectives
1. Address information gap in Bowhead Conservation Strategy
2. Address Species at Risk mandate of critical habitat
Main Goals:
A. produce map(s) of coastal areas that are Critical Habitat (patterns)
B. describing relationships between known bowhead locations and environmental variables (processes)
Sub Goals:
Study Area: Eastern Canadian Arctic [ECA]
Approach
• What have others done?- Gregr & Trites 2001- Mandleberg 2004- Compton 2004- Cañadas et al. 2005
• Consulted expert panel (SMM San Diego, 2006)– “look to your data for answers”
• Obtained eco-geographical variable [EGV] and whale location datasets
• Looked to our data for answers• Selected suitable modeling method based on available data• Produced models and conducted statistical analyses• Validated results and developed synthesized map of high suitability
habitat
METHODS: Eco-geographical Variables (EGVs)
• Sea Surface Temperature• Chlorophyll Concentration• Ice• Water Depth• Slope• Distance to Shore
Sea Surface Temperature Chlorophyll Concentration
Depth Ice Concentration
METHODS: Available Whale Location Data
• Inuit Knowledge (NWMB)• Historical Whaling Data• Industry Sector Survey Data• DFO Aerial Survey Data
Inuit KnowledgeInuit Knowledge
Historic Whaling KillsHistoric Whaling Kills
~2100 total sighting locations
Private Sector SightingsPrivate Sector Sightings
~400 total sighting locations
DFO Sightings August 2002-2003DFO Sightings August 2002-2003
118 total sighting locations
Methods: Modeling & Analyses
• Needed a model that could handle data that weren’t associated with ‘absence’ information
• Chose ENFA (Ecological Niche Factor Analysis): Biomapper v. 3.2 (Hirzel et al. 2006a):
• Doesn’t require presence & absence data – only presence• Has been used with datasets similar to the historic whaling• Is GIS based and includes statistical tools to build habitat suitability models and maps• Downside: can only predict Highly Suitable Habitat within the general study area in which whale locations were collected
ENFA Theory
• Ecological niche: how an organism or population responds to the distribution of resources and competitors
• Habitat Suitability maps computed by fitting some statistical or numerical model on environmental data and species distribution data
• ENFA’s principle is to compare EGV distribution for the presence data set (bowhead distributions) to that of the whole area
• Like Principal Component Analysis, the ENFA summarises many EGV into a few uncorrelated factors retaining most of the information. But here, the factors have an ecological meaning.– Marginality
– Tolerance/Specialization
Def’n: The location of bowheads as it relates to an EGV; relative to the
average EGV condition [0 = low marginality; 1 = high marginality]
Marginality
Average conditions
Range of EGV condition
Co
unt
EGV values at whale locations (niche)
Average conditions
Range of EGV condition
Co
unt
Tolerance/Specialization
EGV values at whale locations (niche)
Not too picky
Def’n: Niche breadth
More picky
Key Assumptions
• Open-water whale distribution related to resource availability
• Distribution of bowhead prey governed by oceanographic processes
• Bowheads not typically found in heavy ice during open water period
• Available whale positions of sufficient accuracy to reflect large-scale trends
• Spatial patterns of whale positions not artifacts of whaling or survey effort
• Recent environmental conditions were the same for the entire timeframe of whale locations used
Technical Methods
• Monthly datasets for whale location information
• Normalized environmental data using Box-Cox algorithm (Hirzel and Arlettaz 2003) where possible
• IDRISI raster, 10-km grid
• Assigned values of each EGV to grid cells in study areas using ArcGIS
• Biomapper distance geometric mean algorithm
• 4 bins used in Biomapper for definition of HS habitat– 0-25% = unsuitable habitat– 25-50% = marginal habitat– 50-75% = suitable habitat– 75-100% = highly suitable habitat
Model Execution, Validation
• Model execution– Ran all EGV datasets with
bowhead location datasets– June, July, August,
September & October
• Cross-validation– Jack-knife procedure; used
bowhead locations, Spearman rank coefficient/Boyce Index
– Visual validation with Inuit Traditional Knowledge
RESULTS: Models Produced Using ENFA and Monthly Data Used
Black = Unsuitable HabitatBlue = MarginalRed = Suitable Yellow = Highly SuitableGrey = land or no data
RESULTS: Habitat Suitability Mapse.g. July Habitat Suitability Map for Historical
Whaling Data Model
JUNE - JUNE - High Suitability Combined ModelsHigh Suitability Combined Models
JULYJULY - High Suitability Combined Models - High Suitability Combined Models
AUGUSTAUGUST - High Suitability Combined Models - High Suitability Combined Models
SEPTEMBERSEPTEMBER - High Suitability Combined Models - High Suitability Combined Models
OCTOBEROCTOBER - High Suitability Combined Models - High Suitability Combined Models
Definition of Critical Open-Water Bowhead Habitat
• Premise: habitat more regularly used is more important to bowheads• Each 10x10km grid cell coded per month noted as highly suitable (of
5 months)• Areas denoted as Highly Suitable for 3+ months of open-water
period are Critical Habitat
Number of Months cell coded as Highly Suitable
Relative Value of Highly Suitable Habitat
0
1
2
3
4
5
Cells Modeled as Highly Suitable for 1 or more Cells Modeled as Highly Suitable for 1 or more MonthsMonths
Delineation of Critical Open-Water Bowhead HabitatDelineation of Critical Open-Water Bowhead Habitat(3+ months High Suitability)(3+ months High Suitability)
Validation using Inuit Traditional Knowledge (late Validation using Inuit Traditional Knowledge (late spring to early fall)spring to early fall)
• Values for 11 models (June to October) ranged from 0.447 to 0.926
• Suitable bowhead habitat differs considerably from average conditions
• Primary variable governing marginality:• Distance from shore
Results: Marginality Trends
• Ice and chlorophyll main EGVs governing specialization (not always consistently)
• Suitable bowhead habitat potentially within narrower ranges of ice and chlorophyll conditions than for other EGVs
Results: Tolerance Trends
• Majority of the 11 models validated as good• Missing EGV data, due to ice coverage, under-
represents HS habitat (i.e., Foxe Basin, PR Inlet)• Distance to shore identified as key EGV - may be
biased by survey/whaling effort• Critical Habitat likely under-represented: 1 or 2
months• Scientific literature supports several areas identified
as critical habitat• Critical habitat identified in south of the ECA not
supported by recent observations of bowheads or literature (may over-represent Critical Habitat)
Discussion
Summary• Most models validated as good – therefore good confidence in
results• Practical definition of Critical Habitat based on ecological theory • Useful approach and tool for management and planning
Future Work• Integrate satellite tagging results & future sources of bowhead
location data• Integrate oceanography (tides, currents)• Use to predict effects of climate change (i.e., change SST based
on GCMs)• “zoom in” resolution and use to understand finer scale ecological
and oceanographic processes• Weight whale location datasets
Acknowledgements
Alooloo Kautaq , Dr. Gill Ross, Bill Koski (LGL), Dr. Sue Cosens (DFO), Larry Dueck, Holly Cleator (DFO), Mads Peter Heide-Jorgensen, John Iacozza (UofW), Jeff Higdon (DFO) members of the Eastern Arctic Bowhead Recovery Team, and the many Inuit that contributed bowhead IQ.
Pete Ewins and WWF Canada are thanked for their support and funding.