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Smokin’ Hot… The Rising Risk In Aviation
John M. Cox
Safety Operating Systems
Copyright SOS 2015
English Is A Unique Language
Attractive female (or male), sexxxy looking, hot.Look at her, she is SMOKIN' HOT.
SMOKIN’ HOT
SMOKIN’ HOT
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Hot Ones Can Be Very Bad
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Fire Proverbs
• A spark neglected makes a mighty fire. ~ Robert Herrick
• Practice fire safety - watch what you heat. ~ Author Unknown
• "(If) it was just an isolated fire, it would be done in a few minutes. I never expected it to be this big.” ~ John Beck firefighter
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SAFITA 2007
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“…we have concluded that we are unlikely to identify and eradicate all possible
sources of ignition.”(Federal Aviation Administration, 2007)
FAA Statement On Ignition
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SAFITA 2013
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What Changed From 2007?
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What Is The Risk
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Changing Risk Profile
• Proliferation of lithium batteries
• Single Aisle jet with 140 passengers
– Assume each has 4 lithium batteries
• Watches, laptop computer, iPad or tablet, smart phone, games player, DVD player or recorder machine, CPAC, flashlight, camera or numerous other electronic devices
• 560 lithium batteries on board
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Acceptable Risk?
• In 2013, 3.3 billion passengers flew worldwide (IATA)
• The battery industry acknowledges 1 in 10,000,000 batteries have a manufacturing defect that could lead to thermal overheat
• Therefore the “acceptable” overheat chances in aircraft are 330 per year. If every passenger has ONE lithium battery
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Battery Fire Risks
• Pax per year 3,300,000,000 (2013 IATA)
• Fail rate 1 in 10,000,000 (Retail Bat Assn)
• Anticipated events = 1/0.000000100 = 330
• Fail rate 1 in 200,000 = 1/0.00000500= 16,500
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The Additional Risk Of Panic
• Suicide Bomb Scare At Chancery Lane Tube Station As Passenger's Laptop Overheats And Gives Off Smoke
•
• The Huffington Post UK | By Jack Sommers• Posted: 19/06/2014 11:40 BST•
• Dozens of commuters fled a busy Tube station in panic fearing a suicide bomber this morning after a passenger's laptop overheated, causing sparks and smoke to pour out of its owner's bag.
• Passengers screamed and ran out of Chancery Lane station in central London while others were in tears following the security scare at 9.30am.
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Battery Recall
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April 14, 2014NEW YORK (AP) — Sony is advising consumers to quit using some of its VAIO laptop computers and unplug them, saying that it's possible that its non-removable battery pack could overheat.The company says it's in the process of creating a program to repair or replace the computers, or will refund their purchase price.The packs included in some of Sony's Vaio Fit 11A models, which were released in February, were provided by a third-party supplier. If the packs overheat, it could cause burns to the laptop's housing, Sony said Friday.
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April 14, 2014
Three incidents of batteries overheating and "causing partial burns to Vaiocomputers" have been reported in the last month, The Wall Street Journal reported.
http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/Sony-Vaio-Batteries-Could-Overheat-Cause-Fire-254874751.html
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February 12, 2016
Toshiba issues big recall for laptop batteries over fire fears
54 models affected.Toshiba has issued a recall for Li-Ion battery packs sold with certain models of its laptops and notebooks due a risk of the device catching fire. The hardware company yesterday advised customers to immediately turn off their PC and remove their battery to check whether their device was affected. The vendor is offering free replacement battery packs for customers with affected units.Around 54 different PC models are affected, sold nationally from retail stores like Harvey Norman and JB Hi-Fi from June 2011 to September 2015. "There is a risk that the rechargeable battery pack may overheat, cause smoke or may ignite," Toshiba warned."If the defect occurs, there is a risk of a fire or a burn hazard to consumers.”
Fellow hardware vendor Panasonic was also this week forced to recall rechargeable battery packs due to a fire hazard.Panasonic CF-S10 ruggedised laptops built between April 2012 and June 2013 were affected."There is a risk that the battery pack may overheat and cause smoke or may ignite posing the risk of fire or burn hazard to consumers and to the [computer]," Panasonic said.iTnews
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Thermal Runaway
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Causes
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iPhones Are Not a Risk…….Are They?
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Phones Are OK……Right?
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Lithium Batteries
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Lithium Battery Fire
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History Is No Longer Useful For Risk Prediction
• In the past the number of batteries was lower
• In the past the number of flights were less
• In the past the numbers of battery events was less
• The likelihood of an battery event is higher than in the past.
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FAA Lithium–ion 200 Count Fire
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Spark Test
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FAA Extinguishing Laptop Fires
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What NOT To Do With A Smokin’ Hot One
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A Smoking Battery Can Be Upsetting
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Laptop Fires
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Laptop Fires
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iPad vs. Seat
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iPad vs. Seat
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March 19, 2016
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UPS PHL 2007
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UPS PHL ULD Container
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UPS PHL ULD Nearby
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UPS DC-8 PHL 2007
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UPS 006 Dubai
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What A Li-Ion Fire Can Do
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Flight Deck Fires
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How Are You Going To Fly The Airplane?
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PED Post Test
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Air France B777 Lithium Battery Fire
Report:AirFranceB772overAtlanticonDec9th2010,lithiumbatteryfireincabinBySimonHradecky,createdFriday,Feb21st201417:56Z,lastupdatedFriday,Feb21st201417:56ZAnAirFranceBoeing777-200,registrationF-GSPKperformingflightAF-681(depDec8th)fromAtlanta,GA(USA)toParisCharlesdeGaulle(France)with219passengers,wasenrouteatFL380overtheAtlanticOceannearIrelandabout90minutespriortoestimatedlandinginPariswhencabincrewnoticedanelectrical
burningsmellnearpassengerseat4F.Cabincrewdisconnectedpowerfromtheinflightentertainmentsystem,removedtheseatcoverfromseat4F,sawopenflamesanddousedthefirewithwater.AfterthefirewasidentifiedpositivelyextinguishedthecaptaindecidedtocontinuetheflighttoParis,wheretheaircraftlandedsafely.TheFrenchBEAreleasedtheirfinalreportinFrenchconcludingthecauseandlearnedlessonsfromthisincidentwere:fireinthecabinduetoaLithiumbattery,thatfellintotheseatmechanism.Thebatterywascrushedcausinganinternalshortcircuitandheatthatresultedinfire.Thedisconnectionofpowerfromtheinflightentertainmentsystembeforeanythingelseisaneffectiveprotectionagainstrisksassociatedwithmanyotherseatssharing
theequipment.Cabincrewsubsequentlyextinguishedthefirebypouringwateroverthefire.Thiswaterextinguishedtheflamesandcooledthebattery,however,thewatercouldhavecausedincreasedintensityoffireandcouldhavemadeitmuchmoredifficulttoputthefireoutduetohydrogenbeingreleasedbythereductionofLithiuminwater.AnewprocedureintroducedbyAirFranceadvocatingtheinitialuseofHalogenextinguisherssolvesthisproblembutintroducestheuseofagasharmfultohealth,theuseofwhichcouldbeespeciallydangerousinthecockpit.IntheUSAtheFAAusesadifferentprocedurerecommendingoperatorstoisolateelectricalpower,thenextinguishtheflameswithHalonorwater,thencooltheunittostopinternalreactions.Thereisnouniversalprocedureestablishedtoextinguish
firesincockpitorcabin.TheBEAreportedthattheseatinbusinessclasswaselectricallyoperated.FollowingtheeventaLithiumbatterycapableofdeliveringof1Ah,5Vat500mA,usedinapersonalelectronicdevicebyapassenger,wasfoundentangledintheseatmechanism.Thebatteryshowedsignsoffire.Itispossiblethatthebatterryslidbehindtheseatcoverintotheseatmechanismviathearmrestorthesideseat.
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AC 120-80
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SAFO
A SAFO contains important safety information and may include recommended action. SAFO content should be especially valuable to air carriers in meeting their statutory duty to provide service with the highest possible degree of safety in the public interest.
Besides the specific action recommended in a SAFO, an alternative action may be as effective in addressing the safety issue named in the SAFO.
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SAFO 09013
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SAFO 09013 Supplement
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Bags
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BAGS
WARNING: Do not use fire resistant burn bags to isolate burning lithium-type batteries.Transferring a burning appliance into a burn bag may be extremely hazardous. Do not move the device until you are certain the fire is extinguished and the device is cool
SAFO 09013 SupplementCopyright SOS 2015
Let’s Reconsider The FAA Guidance
• Is the recommendation not to move an overheating PED the best choice?
• What about in the flight deck?
• What about water into the IFE or other electronics?
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Let’s Reconsider The FAA Guidance
• If the firefighter is protected is the FAA guidance appropriate?
• If the threat can be contained is the FAA guidance appropriate?
• If the threat can contained will it stop the panic?
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Current Status
• Revision to AC 120-80 is completed
• Revision to SAFO 09013 possible
• IATA updated recommendations
• Other regulators reviewing current recommendations
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The Rising Threat In Aviation
A one-in-200,000 failure rate triggered a recall of almost six million lithium-ion packs used in laptops manufactured by Dell and Apple.
http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/lithium_ion_safety_concerns
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The Rising Threat In Aviation
It is estimated that 3.3 billion lithium cells and batteries will be transported worldwide in 2008. This represents an 83 % increase since 2005. The estimated failure rate of all lithium batteries is in the range 1 failure per 10 million batteries manufactured.
http://safetravel.dot.gov/Action_Plan.pdf
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Demand
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Today
SAFITA 2014
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SAFITA 2014
• One of the largest trends in the growth of in-flight fire is due to the transportation of lithium batteries
• Grey market batteries and chargers are a risk
• Thermal containment technology is available and should be considered for carriage in the cabin by all operators.
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April 1, 2015
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SMOKING LAPTOP ON CHICAGO-BOUND FLIGHT FORCES EMERGENCY LANDING IN BUFFALOSmoking laptop on Chicago-bound flight forces emergency landing in Buffalo
CHICAGO --A smoking laptop forced a Chicago-bound flight to make an emergency landing.
A Delta flight from New York's LaGuardia Airport to O'Hare International Airport had to divert to Buffalo.
Airport authorities said a passenger's laptop started smoking. A flight attendant poured water on the machine.
When the flight made the temporary stop in Buffalo, firefighters recovered the laptop for further examination.
None of the 53 people on board was hurt. The flight continued on to Chicago.
April 26, 2015
• An Air Wisconsin Canadair CRJ-200 on behalf of US Airways on behalf of American Airlines, registration N430AW performing ZW-4010/US-4010/AA-4010 from Charlotte,NC to Richmond,VA (USA) with 45 people on board, had landed on runway 02 when during roll out the crew reported they had a fire on board. The next aircraft on final approach was instructed to go around, while emergency services responded. The occurrence aircraft vacated the runway onto the adjacent taxiway B, where the passengers rapidly deplaned. American Airlines reported a Lithium Battery inside a passenger's carry on luggage had started smoking, a flight attendant alerted the flight crew. The airport reported, after the situation had been cleared the aircraft was towed off taxiway B.
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SAFO 15010
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SAFO 16001
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FAA testing has shown that a single lithium battery (cell), whether metal or ion, in thermal runaway will spread to the neighboring batteries in the package and to adjacent packages. Thermal runaway is initiated by an internal short within the battery that may be caused by a manufacturing contaminant, battery damage during handling or from heat produced in the environment, such as by an adjacent fire.
Historically
• Aviation has often used technology to mitigate risk
– EGPWS for CFIT
– Predictive Windshear
– Jet engines
• Can we lower the risk of lithium batteries with technology?
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