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Solid Strategy, Confident Execution
14th Annual Smith Barney Chemical Conference
December 2, 2003
Dan F. SmithPresident and CEO
2
Safe Harbor Language
Statements in this presentation relating to matters that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are just predictions or expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially, based on factors including but not limited to the cyclical nature of the chemical and refining industries; availability, cost and volatility of raw materials and utilities; governmental regulatory actions and political unrest; global economic conditions; industry production capacity and operating rates; the supply/demand balance for Lyondell's and its joint ventures' products; competitive products and pricing pressures; access to capital markets; and technological developments and other risk factors. For more detailed information about the factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially, please refer to Lyondell Chemical Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2002, filed in March 2003, and Lyondell’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, which was filed in November 2003. Reconciliations of GAAP financial measures to non-GAAP financial measures are provided at the end of this presentation.
3
Lyondell Has Built a Balanced Portfolio
Lyondell
IC&D
LCR
Equistar
Commodity Leverage-- A leading North American producer of ethylene, propylene
and polyethylene-- Low cost position based on feedstock flexibility and scale
Growth & International Presence-- A leading global producer of PO and derivatives-- Process technology strength
Cash Generation-- Unique capability to refine heavy crude oils-- Contractually stable business; strong cash flow generator
($ MM)
Revenues EBITDALyondell
OwnershipIC&D $3,262 $410 100.0%Equistar 5,537 256 70.5LCR 3,392 362 58.75
2002
4
Significant Integration Exists Among the Operating Entities and With Our Partners
5
Leading Product Positions Create Significant Earnings Leverage
1 Source: LYO capacities as of Jan 2003, CMAI2 Includes 1.5 billion pounds that represents Bayer’s share under the PO Joint Venture and 385 million pounds or
100% of the capacity of Nihon Oxirane3 Does not include refinery-grade material or production from the product flexibility unit at Equistar’s Channelview
facility.4 Based on 1¢/gal change
Inte
rmed
iate
C
hem
ica
ls a
nd
D
eriv
ati
ves
Eq
uis
tar
Product Annual Capacity 1Capacity Position
Propylene Oxide2 (lbs) 3.9 billion 1st in North America2nd in the world
Styrene Monomer (lbs) 3.7 billion 1st in North America3rd in the world
MTBE (bbl/day) 58,500 1st in North America1st in the world
Ethylene (lbs) 11.6 billion 2nd in North America5th in the world
Propylene (lbs) 5.0 billion 2nd in North America6 th in the world
Polyethylene (lbs) 5.7 billion 3 rd in North America4 th in the world
1
3
$20MM
$14MM
$ 94MM
$116MM
$50MM
$57MM
Pre-TaxLeverage(∆1¢/unit)
6
Lyondell and Equistar Products Serve a Broad Mix of End Users
Bldg & Const
Consumer
Electronics
Other
Transportation
Packaging
Textiles/Furnishings
Bldg & Const
ConsumerPackaging
Textiles/ Furnishings
Electronics
Other
Transportation
PROPYLENE OXIDEETHYLENE
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
There is a Growing Consensus that the Global Economy is Emerging from a Difficult Period
(Percent change in real GDP)Global GDP
Source: Global Insights
8
The US Economy is Beginning to Benefit from Economic Stimulus
Δ GDP
Leads to After
Stimulus Change 1 Year 2 Years
Fed Rate Reduction 100 BP 0.6 1.7
Real Dollar Decline 10% 0.4 1.6
Income Tax Reduction 1% of GDP 0.4 0.8
Stock Price Increase 20% 0.4 0.8
Oil Price Decline $10/bbl 0.2 0.4
* Source: Fed Reserve, Jan. 1999
9
A Brief Portfolio Review
IC&D
– Propylene Oxide (PO) and Derivatives
– Styrene
– MTBE
LCR
– Gasoline
– Heating oil
– Jet fuel
Equistar
– Ethylene
– Polyethylene
10
The PO Industry Has Absorbed a Period of Capacity Additions
Source: SRI / Lyondell
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
22.5
25.0
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Bln
lbs
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Ope
ratin
g R
ate
Lyondell/Partners Dow Shell/BASF Rest of World
Nam
epla
te C
apac
ity
Effective Operating Rate(96% On Stream Time)
Demand at 4.4%
11
Global Styrene Supply/Demand Balances Are Relatively Tight
Source: CMAI 2003 World Styrene Analysis
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Ca
pa
cit
y (
Bil
lio
ns
Po
un
ds
)
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Op
erat
ing
Rat
e (%
)
92% Rate
Demand at 4.5% Growth
12
600
500
400
300
200
100
MTBE is a Source of Premium Clean Octane to the 19-20 MMB/D Global Gasoline Market
Global Supply/Demand US Market Balance
MB/D
CA
U.S.
Non-U.S.
CARefinery/Olefins
U.S.Dehydro
DehydroNon -US
PO
2002DEMAND
2002CAPACITY
2002DEMAND
2002SUPPLY
Refinery/Olefins
U.S.
Imports
U.S.Dehydro
PO
Source : Dewitt
2004 Est. Demand
13
Component Premiums Above Gasoline
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
J ul '0
1
Sep '0
1
Nov '0
1
J an '0
2
Mar '
02
May
'02
J ul '0
2
Sep '0
2
Nov '0
2
J an '0
3
Mar '
03
May
'03
J ul '0
3
Sep '0
3
Pre
miu
m a
bo
ve
Ga
so
lin
e (
¢/g
al)
MTBE
Alkylate
Source: Platts
14
600
500
400
300
200
100
Steps Toward Increased IC&D Cash Flow
Complete PO-11
Capital Spend
Convert PO/SM
Purchases onProduction
1999PO / TDI
SMMargins
MTBEResolution
Sell-out at 1995PO / TDI / SM Margins
Potential Cash Improvement
From 1st Half, 2003 *
$ MM/Yr
* 1st Half EBITDA
Annualized = $200MM
1st Half
15
LCR Important Cash Generator -- Operating Reliability and Crude Deliveries Drive Performance
1 4Q01: Scheduled maintenance turnaround2 1Q03: Includes a $25MM write-off
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140CSA Spot Mkt EBITDA
MB/day $MM
21
Net Distribution To LYO, $MM 33 (7) 16 76 20 24 59 17 2 22 49 7 67 68 55
16
Equistar is a Leading Ethylene Producer
#2 in North America
Competitive position based on feedstock flexibility
1991 2002
Top 5 North America
Shell9%
Dow9%
Equistar15%Nova
8%
Union Carbide7%
Exxon7%
Dow/Carbide20%
ExxonMobil13%
ChevronPhillips10%
Nova 8%
40%
66%
Source: CMAI
17
North American Supply/Demand Balance Is On Track To Improve Significantly
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Bil
lio
n P
ou
nd
s
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Op
erat
ing
Rat
e
Ethylene Supply/Demand Balance – North America
Source: CMAI / Equistar (September/2003)
Nam
epla
te C
apac
ity
N. American Effective Operating Rate(96% On-Stream Time)
N. America Demand
Rest of World
N. America
18
We Believe that Global Ethylene Supply/Demand is on a Path to a Tight Balance
175
200
225
250
275
300
2003 2007 '07 + 2% Growth '07 - 18 Mo Delay
Wo
rld
Eth
yle
ne
Su
pp
ly -
De
ma
nd
(billio
n p
ou
nd
s/y
ear)
Effective Capacity Demand
Source: CMAI
SensitivityCMAI base case
19
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 5, 000 10, 000 15, 000 20, 000 25, 000 30, 000 35, 000 40, 000
US
Korea
Taiwan
WE
Singapore
Japan
Thailand
Malaysia
ChinaIndiaIndonesia
The Emergence of a Middle Class Increases Local Demand for Plastics
Sources: CMAI 2001; Nexant Chemsystems
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Domestic Exports
1995 2001
China PE Demand
Domestic vs. Export
PE Consumption/capita, lbs
2000 GDP/Capita
20
The Most Recent CMAI US Demand Forecast Departs from the Historic Trend Line
Quarterly U.S. Ethylene Demand vs. GDP
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0
GDP - Trillion $ (constant 1996 $'s)
NPRA Quarterly Demand
CMAI Based Forecast
30-Year Trendline
2010
1970
2003
Source: SRI, CMAI, NPRA, US Govn.
Qu
arte
rly
Eth
ylen
e D
eman
d
(B
l. L
bs)
21
Ethane - Light Naphtha Cost of Ethylene Spread
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
¢/lb
eth
yle
ne Average
Liquid Cracking Variable Cost Advantage vs. NGL
Source: ChemData
Equistar Capability
NGL
37%
Liquid
63%
N. American Industry
(ex. Equistar)
NGL
78%
Liquid
22%
Liquid Cracking Provides an Advantage vs. Ethane Raw Materials
Source: CMAI and Lyondell
20
03
YT
D
22
Growing Global Demand will Increasingly be Supplied by Gas Based Raw Materials
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Heavy Liquid NGL Based Demand Olefins Plant Supply
Global Ethylene Supply
by Feed Type
Global Propylene
Growth
Current (2003) Additions (2008)
Eth
ylen
e S
uppl
y –
Hea
vy v
s Li
ght
(bill
ion
poun
ds /
year
)
Propylene (Blb/yrs)
Source: CMAI
23
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
PG Styrene HDPE
Relative Raw Material Margin Range, 1994-2002100 = Period Average
•PG: U.S. Industrial Grade Propylene Glycol minus 0.63 x Chem Grade Propylene, both as reported by Chem Data•Styrene: US Net Industry Average Styrene Price minus 0.28 x North America ethylene Net Transaction Price, minus 0.105 x North America Contract Benzene, all as reported by CMAI•HDPE: North America HDPE Domestic Market Contract Injection Molding price - Ethylene product cash cost (Weighted Average Feed) as reported by CMAI
The Chemical Product Chains All Offer Upside in a Recovery
24
Enterprise Earnings Capability Far Exceeds Recent Trough Results
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2002 1999/2000Margins
1995Margins
1988Margins
$MM
LCR IC&D Equistar1 Chem Data/CMAI industry margins conditions for IC&D and Equistar products (ex. MTBE) applied to current capacities and ownership, LCR 2002 EBITDA, includes PO-11 capacity.
Note: Assumes current capital structure; 175MM shares.
1 1 1
Recession/ Trough
Pre-Recession
PeakCycle EBITDA Potential
$6.30 / share
$1.40 / share
2002 Proportional Interest,
Dividends & Capital
25
Our Financial Strategy is Focused and Unchanged
Maintain Sufficient Liquidity
Repay Debt
26
We Have Maintained Significant Liquidity
1 – represents the undrawn balances and has not been reduced by amounts committed against letters of credit:
(12/30/02: LYO-$49MM, Equ-$16MM)
(9/30/03: LYO-$53MM, Equ-$17MM)
$453MM$743MM $477MM$680MM Total Liquidity
$325MM$350MM $450MM$350MMRevolver 1
$128MM$393MM $27MM $330MMCash & ST Investments
EquistarLyondell Equistar Lyondell
9/30/200312/31/2002
27
We Have Actively Managed Our Maturity Profile
Debt Maturities(1),(2) Pre-Payable Debt(3)
(1) Lyondell: $350MM Revolving Credit Facility expires in 2005 (not included); does not include $100MM Receivables Purchase Program
(2) Equistar: Does not include $250MM Inventory Revolving Credit Facility or $450MM Receivables Purchase Program; includes $98MM GE Railcar Lease, which expires during fourth quarter 2004.
(3) Debt with make-whole provisions are shown at maturity, including the $900MM Senior Secured Notes Series A due 2007 (Lyondell), the $700MM Senior Notes due 2008 (Equistar) and the $600MM Senior Unsecured Notes due 2009 (Equistar).
28
1 Capitalization = debt + book value of equity + minority interest Based on 175 MM shares outstanding
De-leveraging Will Benefit All Stakeholders
Impact of Lyondell debt reduction at constant capitalization1:
Debt Reduction
$2B
Debt to capitalization 35%
Avoided interest expense $200MM/Yr
Earnings improvement 75¢/share
Share price improvement atconstant capitalization $11.50/share
29
Six Months
Ended
June 30,
2003 2002 2001
Lyondell net loss (181)$ (148)$ (150)$ Add: Benefit from income tax (94) (58) (76)
Interest expense, net 182 373 369 Depreciation and amortization 118 244 254 Loss from equity investment in Equistar 132 117 77 Income from equity investment in LCR (56) (135) (129) Loss from other equity investments - 5 12 Restructuring charges (credits) (a) - (3) 63 Extraordinary loss on early retirement of debt, net of tax - 15 5
Lyondell EBITDA excluding restructuring charges (credits) (b) 101$ 410$ 425$
Equistar net loss (195)$ (1,299)$ (283)$ Add: Cumulative effect of accounting change - 1,053 -
Depreciation and amortization 154 298 319 Interest expense, net 102 204 189 Facility closing costs (c) - - 22 Extraordinary loss on early retirement of debt, net of tax - - 3
Equistar EBITDA 61$ 256$ 250$
Proportionate Share - % varies (d) 43$ 122$ 103$
LCR net income 86$ 213$ 203$ Add: Depreciation and amortization 57 116 108
Interest expense, net 19 32 51 Extraordinary loss on early retirement of debt - 1 2
LCR EBITDA 162$ 362$ 364$
Proportionate Share - 58.75% 95$ 213$ 214$
Lyondell and Proportionate Share of Equity Investments - EBITDA Lyondell EBITDA excluding restructuring charges (credits) 101$ 410$ 425$ Lyondell share of Equistar EBITDA (d) 43 122 103 58.75% of LCR EBITDA 95 213 214 75% of LMC EBITDA through April 30, 2002 - (3) (3)
Lyondell and Proportionate Share of Equity Investments 239$ 742$ 738$
________
(a) Restructuring charges (credits) related to shutdow n of Lyondell's ADI business.
(b) Annualized EBITDA for the six months ended June 30, 2003 is approximately $200 million.
For the twelve months ended
December 31,
Lyondell Chemical CompanyReconciliation of Net Income (Loss) to EBITDA
(Millions of dollars)
30
1Q 2000 2Q 2000 3Q 2000 4Q 2000 1Q 2001 2Q 2001 3Q 2001 (a) 4Q 2001 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2002 (b) Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003
Net income (loss) 22$ (22)$ 66$ 62$ 42$ 66$ 78$ 17$ 41$ 63$ 50$ 59$ 28$ 58$ 69$
Add: Depreciation and amortization 26 30 28 28 28 27 26 27 29 30 28 29 28 29 28
Interest expense, net 12 16 16 17 16 15 10 10 8 7 8 9 10 9 8
LCR EBITDA 60$ 24$ 110$ 107$ 86$ 108$ 114$ 54$ 78$ 100$ 86$ 97$ 66$ 96$ 105$
________(a) EBITDA for LCR for the three months ended September 30, 2001 was originally reported as $116 million and was restated to include extraordinary charges
related to early debt retirement, currently reflected in other expense, net.
(b) EBITDA for the three months ended December 31, 2002 was originally reported as $98 million and was restated to include extraordinary charges related to early debt retirement, currently reflected in other expense, net.
Lyondell Chemical CompanyReconciliation of LCR Net Income (Loss) to EBITDA
(Millions of dollars)
31
Lyondell IC&DInterest expense 384$ Capital expenditures (a) 22 Dividends 109
Total 515$
Equistar Interest expense 205 Capital expenditures 118
Total 323$
Proportionate Share - 70.5% (b) 228$
LCRInterest expense 32 Capital expenditures 65
Total 97$
Proportionate Share - 58.75% 57$
Lyondell and Proportionate Share of Equity Investments - Interest, Capital Expenditures and DividendsLyondell IC&D 515$ Lyondell share of Equistar (b) 228 58.75% of LCR 57 Lyondell and Proportionate Share of Equity Investments
Interest, Capital Expenditures and Dividends 800$
________(a) Excludes contributions to PO-11 and U.S. PO joint ventures.
(b) For purposes of this presentation, Lyondell's proportionate interest in Equistar is reflected at its current ownership interest of 70.5% and not at its historical ownership interest.
For the Twelve Months ended December 31, 2002
Lyondell Chemical CompanyReconciliation of Lyondell and Proportionate Share of Ventures'
(Millions of dollars)
Interest, Capital Expenditures and Dividends