Sonnenenergie – Energiekonversion und N t i t tiNetzintegration

Joachim Luther

SymposiumDer Umbau unseres Energiesystems – Strategien und OptionenOldenburg 14.Mai 2012

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Benefits of an advanced energy system,based on the sustainable use of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency

Protection of the natural life support system

Reduction of energy povertyin developing countries

Promotion of peace, by reducing the dependence on regionallyp g yconcentrated energy resources

Energy securityEnergy security

Promotion of structural changes (future-compliant industries & jobs)

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Renewable energies, global potentials

Theoretical Technical SustainableTheoreticalPotential[EJ/year]

TechnicalPotential[EJ/year]

SustainablePotential[EJ/year]

Biomass 2 400 800 100Geothermal 41 700 000 720 22H d 504 000 160 12Hydro 504 000 160 12Solar 3 900 000 280 000 10 000Wind 110 000 1 700 >1 000Wind 110 000 1 700 >1 000

Global energy demand 2008: 492 EJ/aGlobal energy demand 2008: 492 EJ/a

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), Flagship Report 2011

Solar electricity generation (I),y g ( )optical concentration, examples

Solar thermal (CSP) Photovoltaics (CPV)

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Solar thermal (CSP) Photovoltaics (CPV)

Solar electricity generation (II),flat plate photovoltaics, examples

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Market shares of PV technologies

Other90%

100%100%

90%

a-Si

ClS70%

80%80%

70% ClS

CdTe50%

60%60%

50%

Ribbon c-Si20%

30%

40%40%

30%

20% Multi c-SiMono c-Si

0%

10%

20%20%

10%

0%0%0%

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Source: S. Glunz, Fraunhofer ISE; Data Photon Magazine

Cost break down of PV systems,

Silicon

silicon wafer PV, 2010

Silicon10% Ingots

4%BOS*,

installation/

Cell

engineering50%

Wafer8%Ce12%

ModuleModule16%

* BOS – balance of system (inverters, mounting system, cabling)

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Sources: Barclays Capital, industry sources, SERIS market research, June 2011

New grid architecture and controlDispatchablerenewables

Conventionalpower plants

LDi t ib t d d

Consumer

Large-scalePV and off shore

Distributed andcentral control

Energy storage off-shorewind

Energy storage

FluctuatingSmart storagesCo-generation Fluctuatingrenewables

Smart storages(e-mobility)

Co generation(decentralised)

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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PV installations,data December 2011

Cumulative PV capacity globally installed 67 GW

PV fraction of global electricity generation ~ 0 4%PV fraction of global electricity generation 0.4%

Cumulative PV capacity installed in Germany* 25 GW

PV fraction of German electricity generation ~ 3%PV fraction of German electricity generation 3%

PV capacity globally installed in 2011 28 GW

Average market growth rate since 2000 40%Average market growth rate since 2000 40%

Global market volume, 2010 US$75 billion

*peak electricity demand 2010: 78 GW

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Sources: European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), SERIS market research 2011

Global cumulative PV capacity

70000

80000

50000

60000

MW

30000

40000

50000

capa

city

M

20000

30000

PV

0

10000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011eYear

Europe All other markets

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Source: EPIA

Price experience (learning) curveSilicon-wafer based modules

10W

p

1987

2000

3rice

€ / W 1992

1996

2000

2008

Mod

ule

p

2003 2009

1

M

2010, 4th Qrt2011, 3rd Qrt

2011 4th Qrt

100 1000 10000 100000Cumulative Power MWp

2011, 4th Qrt

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Sources: Fraunhofer ISE, PSE AG, SERIS, Barclays Capitalp

Cost, solar electricity

C t MonetisingCostCost[$/kWh]

Monetisingexternal costscompetitiveness

of PV electricity

Cost: grid electricity

Cost: PVelectricity

Time (years)Mass production, innovation

[years]

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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innovation

Cost reduction in solar electricity

Higher efficiency of energy conversiong y gy

Less material consumption

Low-cost materials

Optimised manufacture mass productionOptimised manufacture, mass production

Optimised module technologies

Optimised grid integration (smart grids)

Novel concepts of photovoltaic energy conversion

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Silicon wafer technologies,routes to higher efficiency, examples and cost reductions

All-back-contact cells

Hetero-junction cellsHetero-junction cells

n-type silicon

Selective emitters

Better light trapping

Better surface passivation

Improved electrical contactsImproved electrical contacts

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Less material consumption in PV,examples

Thin-film technologiesCdTCdTeSiliconClGSIII-V, plastic, dye

Ult thi fUltra-thin wafersTransfer technology (e.g. ion implantation for separation)p p )

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Efficiencies of major PV technologies,j gMarch 2012

T h l B t Eff Eff i R kTechnology Best Effin lab (cells)

Eff inindustry

(modules)

Remarks

Mono-Si 25.0% 14-20% Pseudo-square wafers (125 mm)

Multi-Si 20.4% 14-18% Square wafers (156 mm)

CIS (CIGS) 20.3% 10-14% Uses Indium

CdTe 16.7% 10-12% Uses Tellurium and Cadmium

Micromorph Si 11.9% 8-10% Tandem cell (a-Si/μc-Si)

Amorphous Si 10.1% 5-7% Very thin cell (Si ~300 nm)

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Thermodynamic limits,photovoltaic energy conversion

80%

100%ie

ncy

40%

60%

effic

40%

20%

T = 5777 K

0% 1 10 100 1000 10000optical concentrationTs = 5777 K

Tc = 300 K

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Source: R. Sizmann 1991

Novel/conceivable PV technologies,

Concentrator PV (CPV),

gexamples

Concentrator PV (CPV),tandem solar cells (III-V materials)

Devices based on the concepts of organic and dye solar cellsorganic and dye solar cells

Novel tandem solar cells

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

18

New grid architecture and controlDispatchablerenewables

Conventionalpower plants

LDi t ib t d d

Consumer

Large-scalePV and off shore

Distributed andcentral control

Energy storage off-shorewind

Energy storage

FluctuatingSmart storagesCo-generation Fluctuatingrenewables

Smart storages(e-mobility)

Co generation(decentralised)

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

19

Smart grids,gmerging of power and information networks

Matching demand and generation on a centralised and decentralised level (“smart energy centres”):( smart energy centres ):

Control of less time-sensitive loadsTemporary storage (e g in EV’s)Temporary storage (e.g. in EV s)Smart tariffs

Large-area grids and inter-woven decentralised “smart energy centres”decentralised smart energy centres

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

20

Benefits of an advanced energy system,based on the sustainable use of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency

Protection of the natural life support system

Reduction of energy povertyin developing countries

Promotion of peace, by reducing the dependence on regionallyp g yconcentrated energy resources

Energy securityEnergy security

Promotion of structural changes (future-compliant industries & jobs)

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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