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Source apportionment of PM in the ADMS model
David Carruthers
Workshop on Source Apportionment of Particulate Matter
Imperial College London
Friday, 23 April 2010
Contents
• Modelling methodology• London • Marylebone Road• Resuspension• Other
• Models all source groups within the urban area – typically hour by hour calculation
• Explicitly models major road sources, major industrial sources. Includes street canyon model
• Other sources modelled as grid sources (e.g.1km* 1km
• Regional pollution from rural monitoring sites or from larger area model (e.g. WRF/CMAQ or Pre’vair/Chimere)
Model ADMS-Urban Model Methodology
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 10 20 30 40 50
Measured concentration (µg/m³)
Mo
del
led
co
nce
ntr
atio
n (
µg/m
³)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Measured concentration (µg/m³)
Mo
del
led
co
nce
ntr
atio
n (
µg/m
³)
Model verification at AURN Sites – PM10 & PM2.5
London (2001)
PM10
PM2.5
Annual Mean 90.4th percentile
Measured Modelled
Marylebone Road 32.0 32.8
Bloomsbury 17.1 19.2
(a) Total PM10 (b) Traffic (Major and minor roads)
(c) Rail (d) Shipping
(e) Domestic Gas (f) Commercial Gas
(g) Industrial (h) Other
PM10 (µg/m³)> 3529 - 3527 - 2925 - 2723 - 2510 - 235 - 101 - 50.5 - 10.1 - 0.50 - 0.1
Contributions of source groups to total PM10 concentrations 2010
PM10 (µg/m³)> 3529 - 3527 - 2925 - 2723 - 2510 - 235 - 101 - 50.5 - 10.1 - 0.50 - 0.1
(a) Major Roads (b) Other Roads
(c) Car (d) Taxi
(e) Bus and Coach (f) LGV
(g) Rigid HGV (h) Articulated HGV
Source apportionment
of PM10 from vehicle exhaust emissions 2010
Source apportionment of PM10 traffic emissions. Mean
all London AURN sites
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Tota
l exh
aust
CarTa
xiLG
V
Rigid
HG
V
Articu
late
d HG
VBus
Resus
pens
ion e
tc
An
nu
al
av
era
ge
PM
10
fro
m t
raff
ic
at
AU
RN
sit
es
(µ
g/m
³)
20102020
Car38%
Taxi11%
LGV31%
Rigid HGV10%
Articulated HGV4%
Bus6%
0
25
50
75
100
125
1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 321 341 361
Day
PM
10 c
on
cen
trat
ion
(µg
/m³)
Measured
Modelled
Measured ModelledAnnual average (µg/m³) 43.8 43.4No. exceedences of 50µg/m³ 114 9490.41st percentile of daily averages (equivalent to 35 exceedences)
64.1 57.0
Marylebone Road 2001 – Modelled time series and Number of exceedences of limit values
Rural background47%Major Road
39%
Rural background
Urban 'coarse'
Roadside 'coarse'
Major Road
Minor road
Industrial
Domestic
Other
Source contributions to modelled annual average PM10 concentration
HGV21%
LGV28%
Taxi25%
Car17%
Bus5%
M'cycle4%
Motorcycle
Car
Taxi
LGV
Bus
HGV
Source contribution of vehicle types
Marylebone Road
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351
Day
24-h
ou
r av
erag
e P
M10
co
nce
ntr
atio
n (
µg/m
³)
Other
Industrial
Domestic
Minor road
Major road
Rural background
Urban coarse
Roadside coarse
Modelled source contributions to modelled daily average PM10 concentrations, Marylebone Road 2001
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91
24-h
ou
r av
erag
e P
M10
co
nce
ntr
atio
n (
µg/m
³) Other
Industrial
Domestic
Minor road
Urban 'coarse'
Roadside 'coarse'
Major road
Rural background
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91
24-h
ou
r av
erag
e P
M10
co
nce
ntr
atio
n (
µg/m
³)
Other
Industrial
Domestic
Minor road
Urban 'coarse'
Roadside 'coarse'
Rural background
Major road
Source contributions to exceedences of the 50µg/m³ objective value, ordered by background contribution and major road contribution
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Total concentration (µg/m³)
So
urc
e c
on
trib
uti
on
(µ
g/m
³)
Rural background
Major road
Major road and background contribution compared to total concentration
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Rural background (µg/m³)
Ma
jor
roa
d c
on
trib
uti
on
(µ
g/m
³)
Comparison of major road and rural background concentrations
Non-Exhaust Emissions of PM
• DEFRA Project –TRL, University of Birmingham, CERC
• Review of methodologies for tyre wear, brake wear and road wear
• Focus resuspension
Non-exhaust study- Resuspension
• Estimated from measurements at Marylebone Road & Bloomsbury.
ETOTAL, NON-EX = ETYRE + E BRAKE + EROAD + ERESUSP
• ETYRE, EBRAKE & EROAD determined using several methods
– Existing EMEP method– RAINS database– CEPMEIP database
• PM2.5 = exhaust (94%), PM2.5-10 = non-exhaust + exhaust (6%)
• ERESUSP dominated by HDV 116mg/km,(LDV 0.02mg/km)
x
NOPM NO
PMEE
x
1010
Non-exhaust study - dispersion modelling sites
• 4 TRAMAQ sites (Birmingham Selly Oak, Park Lane, Elephant and Castle, High Holborn)
– PM10 and PM2.5
– Kerbside and background– Chemical component data available
• 9 London DEFRA sites – 2 with PM10 and PM2.5
– 7 with PM10 only
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
PM10 PM2.5 PMcoarse
Em
issi
ons
(ton
nes/
year
)
Other sourcesExhaustTyreBrakeRoad wearResuspension
Non-exhaust studyRoad Traffic Emission totals 2002 London
Traffic source contribution to modelled concentrations (London 2002)
PM10
PM2.5
Exhaust55%
Tyre11%
Brake14%
Road wear10%
Resuspension10%
Exhaust76%
Tyre9%
Brake8%
Road wear7% Exhaust
14%
Tyre10%
Brake29%
Road wear15%
Resuspension32%
PMcoarse
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 10 20 30 40 50
Measured
Mod
elle
d
Defra (resuspension 1A)Defra (resuspension 2A)TRAMAQ Roadside (resuspension 1A)TRAMAQ Roadside (resuspension 2A)TRAMAQ Background (resuspension 1A)TRAMAQ Background (resuspension 2A)Modelled = ObservedModelled within +/- 30% of observed
Non-Exhaust studyDispersion modelling - PM10
Annual average PM10 concentrations
Annual average PM2.5 concentrations
0
10
20
30
40
0 10 20 30 40
Measured
Mod
elle
d
DefraTRAMAQ RoadsideTRAMAQ BackgroundModelled = ObservedModelled within +/- 50% of observed
Non Exhaust StudyDispersion modelling - PM2.5
0
10
20
30
40
50B
exl
ey
Bre
nt
A3
Hill
ing
do
n
Ha
rin
ge
y R
oa
dsi
de
N K
en
sin
gto
n
Ca
md
en
Ma
ryle
bo
ne
Rd
Blo
om
sbu
ry
EC
Ro
ad
sid
e
HH
Ro
ad
sid
e
PL
Ro
ad
sid
e
SO
Ro
ad
sid
e
EC
Ba
ckg
rou
nd
HH
Ba
ckg
rou
nd
PL
Ba
ckg
rou
nd
SO
Ba
ckg
rou
nd
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n (
µg
/m³)
MonitoredModelled:BackgroundOther sourcesExhaustTyreBrakeRoad wearResuspension
Non-exhaust studyDispersion modelling - source apportionment
Annual average PM10
concentrations
Non-exhaust study: Resuspension – Uncertainty
Dependence on wind speedVariation of hourly median resuspension at Marylebone Road with wind direction at Heathrow, 2001
y = -0.0816x2 + 3.2982x + 5.0374
R2 = 0.8223
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Wind speed at Heathrow (knots)
Res
uspe
nsio
n (g
km
-1 h
-1)
Non-exhaust study Resuspension Uncertainty - source properties
E x h a u s t (1 .5 m fo r h e a v y , 1 m
fo r lig h t)
B ra k e w e a r: (1 m fo r h e a v y , 0 .7 5 fo r lig h t)
T y re w e a r (0 .5 m )
R o a d w e a r (0 .5 m )
R e s u s p e n s io n (0 .5 m )
R e s u s p e n s io n (0 .5 m )
Singapore Harrison Chemical Speciation model based on
chemical sampling vs PM measurements
JI YS CS JI YS CS0
10
20
30
40
50
60
PM10-2.5
PM2.5
Minerals
NaCl
NaNO3
NH4NO3
(NH4)2SO4
CaSO4.2H2O
Elemental carbon
Organic carbon
µg
/m³