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SOUTH AFRICAN FERTILIZERS MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT
2016
Directorate Marketing Tel: 012 319 8455
Private Bag X 15 Fax: 012 319 8131
Arcadia E-mail:[email protected]
0007 www.daff.gov.za
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. DESCRIPTION OF THE INDUSTRY ............................................................................................... 3
2. GLOBAL FERTILISER PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION ...................................................... 3
3. MANUFACTURING OF FERTILIZER ............................................................................................. 6
5. LOCAL FERTILIZER PRICES VS INTERNATIONAL FERTILIZER PRICES ................................. 9
6. EXPORT VOLUMES OF FERTILIZERS ....................................................................................... 10
6.1 LIMESTONE AMMONIUM NITRATE (LAN) ..................................................................................... 10
6.2 MONO-AMMONIUM PHOSPHATE (MAP) ...................................................................................... 12
6.3 NITROGEN, PHOSPHORUS AND POTASSIUM (NPK) ...................................................................... 14
6.4 POTASSIUM CHLORIDE ............................................................................................................. 16
6.5 POTASSIUM SULPHATE ............................................................................................................. 17
6.6 SUPERPHOSPHATE ................................................................................................................... 19
7. IMPORT VOLUMES OF FERTILIZERS ........................................................................................ 21
7.1 UREA ...................................................................................................................................... 21
7.2 LIMESTONE AMMONIUM NITRATE (LAN) ..................................................................................... 23
7.3 MONO-AMMONIUM PHOSPHATE (MAP) ...................................................................................... 25
7.4 POTASSIUM SULPHATE ............................................................................................................. 27
7.5 POTASSIUM CHLORIDE ............................................................................................................. 28
7.6 SUPERPHOSPHATE ................................................................................................................... 30
8. SWOT ANALYSIS (STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES, OPPORTUNITIES, THREATS) .................. 32
9. ROLE PLAYERS IN THE FERTILZER INDUSTRY ...................................................................... 33
10. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................................... 34
3
1. DESCRIPTION OF THE INDUSTRY
Fertilizer consumption in South Africa represents about 0.5% of the total global consumption and as
such the local fertilizer industry is a price taker. For this reason it is important to study the international
fertilizer supply and demand balances and other factors which influence this market as they have a
direct impact on the domestic market. The South African fertilizer industry is fully exposed to world
market forces and operates in a totally deregulated environment with no import tariffs or government
sponsored support measures. In this deregulated market environment, fertilizer prices are strongly
influenced by international prices, currency exchange rates (R/US$) and shipping costs. Farm gate
prices of fertilizer evidently include the cost of distribution, intermediate storage and packaging.
Maize accounts for 41% of total fertilizer application while the second largest fertilizer consumer is
sugar cane at 18%. The horticultural and fruit crop sectors account for 20 percent of fertilizer
consumption but their contribution to the total value of crop production is much greater. The South
African fertilizer market is very competitive, with a handful of national and regional operators.
Competition is driven through price incentives, product differentiation and specialized services such as
individual agronomic advice, custom blending and application. South Africa is a net importer of
fertilizers. All of our potassium, as well as 60% to 70% of our nitrogen requirements are imported. This
means that the local prices would be subjected to the same supply and demand drivers as in the
international industry. Local prices are therefore also influenced by the shipping costs and the
rand/dollar exchange rate. Most of the international fertilizer prices (dollar per ton) increased on an
annual basis and due to the significant depreciation of the exchange rate international fertilizer prices
increase even more.
2. GLOBAL FERTILISER PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
Table 1 below presents the top-ten fertilizer producers in the world during 2015, with China occupying
the top spot with approximately 58 million tons while Trinidad and Tobago occupied the tenth spot with
447 thousand tons.
Table 1: Global fertilizer production rankings - 2015
RANK COUNTRY TONS(‘000)
1 China 57 795
2 Russia 17 516
5 India 16 547
4
RANK COUNTRY TONS(‘000)
4 United State 15 126
3 Canada 14 272
6 Belarus 7 479
9 Ukraine 5 744
7 Germany 4 394
8 Indonesia 4 107
10 Trinidad & Tobago 447
Source: IFA data, 2015
Figure 1 below shows the global consumption of fertilizers based on the three major nutrients namely,
Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus (P) and Potassium (K) between 2006 and 2014 marketing seasons.
Source: Grain SA
It is quite clear from the Figure 1 above that the demand for nitrogen fertilizers was high over the past
ten years under review, followed by phosphorus and potassium. The figure also shows that global
consumption of nitrogen fertilizer consistently increased from 2006 except for a slight decline in 2008 to
approximately 97 million tons. In 2014, the demand for nitrogen fertilizer increased slightly by 0.6% and
peaked at approximately 109.8 million tons in 2014. Globally, the demand for phosphorus and
potassium fertilizers was very low compared to Nitrogen during the ten year period under review and
not more than 50 million tons per annum. Nitrogen-based fertilizers are the most used for crop
production. The international price of nitrogen fertilizer automatically went up because of high demand
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
N 96920 100124 97619 101552 104079 106781 107422 109115 109837
P 38791 38534 33917 37477 40568 41545 41515 41192 41463
K 27210 29072 23152 23600 27482 28242 28980 31168 32632
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
To
ns
('00
0)
Years
Figure 1: Global fertilizer consumption
5
for the product. During the same period, the price of phosphorus and potassium fertilizers declined
substantially due to very low demand globally.
3. SOUTH AFRICAN FERTILISER CONSUMPTION
The utilisation of fertilisers in South Africa between 2006 and 2015 is depicted in Figure 2 below.
Source: FERTASA
It is quite clear from Figure 2 above that nitrogen fertilizers were stable and the mostly used fertilizers
throughout the period under review, followed by potassium and phosphorus. The figure also shows that
South Africa’s consumption of fertilizer experienced an increase from 2006 and a decline in 2005 and
2010 to approximately 350 000 and 400 000 tons respectively. In 2009, the demand for fertilizer
increased dramatically until a peak was attained at approximately 450 000 tons. Domestically, the
demand for phosphorus and potassium fertilizers was very low during the ten year period under review
and not more than 130 000 tons per annum. During 2015 season, consumption volumes for NPK
fertilizers declined. Nitrogen declined by 10% while both potassium and phosphorus declined by 2.81%.
0.0
50000.0
100000.0
150000.0
200000.0
250000.0
300000.0
350000.0
400000.0
450000.0
500000.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fer
tiliz
der
qu
anti
ties
(T
on
s)
Years
Figure 2: Fertilizer consumption in South Africa, 2005 - 2015
N P K
6
3. MANUFACTURING OF FERTILIZER
3.1 Figure 3: Phosphate fertilizers manufacturing process
Phosphate Rock Mine
Phosphate Rock
Production of Phosphoric
Acid
Phosphoric acid
Production of Final products Ammonia
DAP, MAP, SSP, TSP, FEED AND OTHER PHOSPHATES
The manufacturing process of phosphate fertilizers which involves different ingredients used is shown
in Figure 3 above. In this process, first stage shows that phosphate fertilizer is from phosphate mine
that transforms it into phosphate rock which is then mixed with phosphoric acid and ammonia salts and
gas and as a result, a complete product becomes phosphate fertilizer that is used in the production of
food crops such as maize.
Sulphuric Acid
7
3.2 Figure 4: Nitrogen Fertilizer manufacturing process
In this process, natural gas and steam are pumped into a large vessel. Next, air is pumped into the system, and oxygen is removed by the burning of natural gas
and steam. This leaves primarily nitrogen, hydrogen, and carbon dioxide. The carbon dioxide is removed and ammonia is produced by introducing an electric
current into the system. Any impurities are removed from the ammonia, and it is stored in tanks until it is further processed. While ammonia itself is sometimes
used as a fertilizer, it is often converted to other substances for ease of handling. Nitric acid is produced by first mixing ammonia and air in a tank. In the
presence of a catalyst, a reaction occurs which converts the ammonia to nitric oxide. The nitric oxide is further reacted in the presence of water to produce nitric
acid. Nitric acid and ammonia are used to make ammonium nitrate. This material is a good fertilizer component because it has a high concentration of nitrogen.
The two materials are mixed together in a tank and a neutralization reaction occurs, producing ammonium nitrate. This material can then be stored until it is
ready to be granulated and blended with the other fertilizer components.
Natural
Gas
Air
Anhydrous
Ammonia
Ammon
ia
Am
Nitrate
UAN
Solution
Urea
O2 Nitric
Acid
Urea
Liquid
Am
Nitrate
UAN
Blending
Granulation
CO2
8
3.3 Figure 5: Potash fertilizer manufacturing process
Wet potash concentrate
Fines
Dry concentrate
Soluble or Industrial Granular Standard
Solid or Liquid Fertilizer Solid fertilizer Solid fertilizer industrial
Figure 5 above indicates the manufacturing process of different types of potash fertilizers and stages /
phases of manufacturing. The figure further indicates that potash fertilizer is manufactured from ore
from the mines and it is then reduced in size before removing the clay content. The next stage is to
separate potash from salts and wet potash concentrate becomes clear. The watering and drying phase
takes place in preparation for the final stages of different types of potash fertilizer. The next stage of
manufacturing is sizing, compaction and crystallization of the primary product which leads to either
soluble or industrial (solid/ liquid) fertilizer, granular (solid) fertilizer or standard fertiliser.
4. FERTILIZER MARKET AND PRICING
Figure 6 shows average fertilizer prices in South Africa for the period under scrutiny (2006 to 2015).
Average fertilizer prices of Mono-Ammonium Phosphate (MAP) dominated over the past nine years
attaining a peak in 2008 at approximately R13 188.00 per ton. Although there was a sharp decline in
average fertilizer prices of MAP in 2009, positive trends were observed again between 2010 and 2015
to price levels of approximately R9 564.80 per ton. This represented 19.5% increase in prices of MAP
between 2014 and 2015. Potassium Chloride average prices attained a peak in in 2009 at
approximately R9 614.92. Prices of Potassium Chloride have been fairly stable over the past 7 years,
Compaction
Ore from mine
Dewatering &
Drying
Sizing
Crystallizati
on
Size Reduction Flotation to
Separate Potash
from Salt
Remove Clay
9
maintaining an average of R6 643.00 per ton. The average prices of Urea (46) and Limestone
Ammonium Nitrate (LAN) attained their peaks also in 2008 at approximately R7 408.00. Generally, it is
evident from the figure below that between 2010 and 2014, average prices of fertilizers in South Africa
increased although at slow increasing trends. Between 2006 and 2007 and between 2009 and 2010,
average fertilizer prices in South Africa were low and that benefitted farmers in terms of prices and
affordability. However in 2008, farmers had to deal with high average prices which had an impact on
production and farm income. This sharp increase in fertilizer prices in 2007 and 2008 could be
attributed to high oil prices, imposed import duties and weaker exchange rate.
Source: GrainSA
5. LOCAL FERTILIZER PRICES VS INTERNATIONAL FERTILIZER PRICES
Tables 2 and 3 below show the relationships between local and international fertilizer prices. It can be
observed from the tables that there exists symmetric price transmission between local prices and
international prices. This mainly due to the fact that domestic prices responded positively to changes in
the international fertilizer prices over the past two years. The tables also show that there is a price gap
between local and international fertilizer prices and this could be largely due to fluctuations in the
exchange rate between the rand and other currencies globally.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
MAP 3602.7 5055.6 13188.5 5595.3 6337.3 7251.6 7646.1 7739.3 8003.8 9564.8
LAN 2268.6 2817.9 5329.3 3606.2 3494.2 4462.1 4807.7 5254.7 5398.8 5474.4
Urea 3258.1 3971.8 7407.9 4912.8 4381.9 5640.3 6172.9 6181.2 6258.3 6310.7
Potassium Chloride 2831.8 3254.5 9543.6 9614.9 5924.4 5988.3 6827.4 7048.8 6784.3 7286.5
0.0
2000.0
4000.0
6000.0
8000.0
10000.0
12000.0
14000.0
Ave
rag
e p
rice
s (R
/T)
Years
Figure 6: South African average fertilizer price, 2006 - 2015
10
Table 2: Local fertilizer prices in Rand terms
Fertilizers January 2016 R/ton
January 2017 R/ton
% CHANGE
LAN (28) 5 821 5 168 -11.2
Urea(46) 6 336 5 895 -7.0
MAP 9 855 8 934 -9.3
Potassium chloride 7 548 6 330 -16.1 Source: GrainSA
* Estimated Import parity price (thus the c.i.f. import price plus tariff and transport cost to the purchaser's location)
Table 3: International fertilizer prices in Rand terms
Fertilizers January 2016
R/ton
January 2017
R/ton
% CHANGE
Ammonia 5 424 3 159 41.8
Urea(46) 3 441 3 282 -4.6
DAP 6 391 4 421 -30.8
Potassium chloride 4 212 2 943 -30.1
Source: Grain SA * FOB per ton (Rand)
6. EXPORT VOLUMES OF FERTILIZERS
6.1 Limestone Ammonium Nitrate (LAN)
Export volumes of limestone ammonium nitrate (LAN) fertilizers from South Africa to the world during
the past ten years are shown in Figure 7. Almost all of the export volumes of LAN from South Africa to
the world went to Africa followed by minimal exports to the Americas, Europe, Oceania and Asia. It
worth noting that export of LAN to various regions of the world has been unstable during the past ten
years. Exports volumes of LAN to Africa attained a peak in 2007 at approximately 60 076 tons followed
by a 94% decrease in 2008. In 2012, exports of LAN to Africa reached its lowest point at approximately
896 tons. There was a 544% increase in export volumes of LAN from South Africa to Africa in 2014 as
compared to 2013 marketing season. During 2015, the LAN exports also increased by 18% when
compared to 2014 season.
11
Source: Quantec EasyData
Figure 8 indicates export volumes of limestone ammonium nitrate (LAN) fertilizer to Africa particularly
the SADC region over the past decade. The major export market for LAN fertilizer to SADC was
Zimbabwe, followed by Malawi during the past decade. Export volumes of LAN fertilizer from South
Africa to Zimbabwe attained a peak in 2007 at approximately 45 043 tons. During the second half of the
ten year period, export volumes of LAN fertilizer were from a low base reaching a maximum of 5 128
tons. In 2008, there were no export volumes of LAN fertilizer to Zimbabwe. There was a 1 300%
increase in export volumes of LAN fertilizer to Zimbabwe in 2014 as compared to 2013. During the past
two years, Malawi has been the top market for South African LAN fertilizers, accounting for 74% (7 160
tons) of South African total LAN exports (9 733 tons) in 2015.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World 5476 60110 3855 37688 14478 3330 944 1610 8242 9733
Africa 5443 60076 3825 37022 13938 3330 896 1610 8242 9733
Americas 0 0 0 598 540 0 0 0 0 0
Asia 2 0 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Europe 31 0 0 68 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oceania 0 34 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0
010000200003000040000500006000070000
Vo
lum
es in
To
ns
Years
Figure 7: Export volumes of Limestone Ammonium Nitrate (LAN) fertilizer to the world, 2006 - 2015
12
Source: Quantec EasyData
6.2 Mono-Ammonium Phosphate (MAP)
Figure 9 represents export volumes of Mono-Ammonium Phosphate (MAP) fertilizer to the world
between 2006 and 2015 marketing seasons. The major export market for MAP fertilizer during the past
decade was mainly Africa, followed by Americas and Oceania over the past decade. Export volumes of
MAP fertilizer from South Africa to Africa attained a peak in 2015 at 60 654 tons, while export volumes
of MAP fertilizers to Americas attained a peak in 2015 at approximately 33 000 tons. Export volumes of
MAP fertilizer from South Africa to Oceania attained a peak in 2012 at approximately 17 926 tons.
There was an increase of 30.3% in export volumes of MAP fertilizer to Africa in 2015 as compared to
the 2014 marketing season.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Africa 5443 60076 3825 37022 13938 3330 896 1610 8242 9733
Angola 0 0 5 6 0 67 140 93 48 72
Botswana 0 0 0 0 198 634 477 107 42 99
Democratic Republic of the Congo 0 0 66 235 34 19 34 0 9 24
Lesotho 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 180 1 70
Malawi 34 11250 1080 12303 5356 2078 0 92 6185 7160
Mozambique 8 20 0 4303 0 9 54 0 62 1
Namibia 0 0 0 0 66 57 87 78 84 135
Swaziland 0 0 0 0 2491 3 0 0 97 60
Zambia 2928 3718 2673 2081 698 433 29 1028 1264 36
Zimbabwe 2471 45043 0 17896 5094 31 1 32 448 2075
010000200003000040000500006000070000
Vo
lum
e in
To
nS
Years
Figure 8: Exports of Limestone Ammonium Nitrate (LAN) fertilizer to SADC and SACU, 2006 - 2015
13
Source: Quantec EasyData
Export volumes of Mono-Ammonium Phosphate (MAP) fertilizer to Africa particularly the SADC region
are depicted in Figure 10. Volumes of MAP fertilizer exports from South Africa to SADC went mainly to
Zimbabwe followed by Zambia Mozambique and Malawi during the period under observation. Volumes
to Zambia were from a high based during the second half (2011-2015) of the ten year period attaining a
peak in 2013 at approximately 31 756 tons. Malawi and the Mauritius had very low or minimal volumes
of MAP fertilizer of not more than 10 000 tons per annum over the past ten years. It is also clear from
the figure that there was a 13.4% increase in export volumes of MAP fertilizer from South Africa to
Zambia in 2015 as compared to the 2014 marketing season.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Africa 11328 10590 57537 12671 19692 20011 11959 46804 46540 60654
Americas 0 15000 0 20034 0 57482 21609 25005 0 33000
Oceania 8500 3 0 24 11012 0 17926 16053 0 0
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Vo
lum
e in
To
ns
Years
Figure 9: Export volumes of Mono-Ammonium Phosphate (MAP) to the world, 2006 - 2015
14
Source: Quantec EasyData
6.3 Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK)
Figure 11 presents export volumes of Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) fertilizers to the
world between 2006 and 2015 marketing seasons. Most of the exports of NPK fertilizers to the world
went to Africa, followed by minimal export volumes of NPK fertilizers to the Americas, Asia, Europe and
Oceania over the past ten years. Export volumes of NPK to Africa were from a high base during the first
half of the ten year period (2006-2010) attaining a peak in 2008 at approximately 201 700 tons. During
the second half of the same period (2011-2015) under observation, export volumes of NPK fertilizers to
Africa were declining consistently until the lowest levels of exports were attained in 2015 at below 100
000 tons mark. There was 19.8% decrease in export volumes of NPK fertilizers to Africa in 2015 as
compared to 2014.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mauritius 3005 4210 0 1421 675 6 0 120 16 0
Malawi 1 4 262 60 7 0 860 1812 475 15
Mozambique 0 0 45460 40 60 11045 57 0 55 131
Zambia 2399 40 44 5495 5862 4151 9839 31756 27061 30691
Zimbabwe 5918 6335 11674 5574 12954 4650 1144 12332 17867 28859
05000
100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000
Vo
lum
e in
To
ns
Years
Figure 10: Export volumes of Mono-Ammonium Phosphate (MAP) to SADC member states, 2006 - 2015
15
Source: Quantec EasyData
Figure 12 presents export volumes of Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) fertilizers from South
Africa to Africa particularly the SADC region over the past decade.
Source: Quantec EasyData
Export volumes of NPK fertilizers from South Africa to the SADC went mainly to Zambia, followed by
Zimbabwe and Malawi. Volumes of NPK fertilizers to Zambia were from a high base during the first half
of the ten year period (2006-2010) under observation attaining a peak in 2008 at approximately 97 802
tons. Volumes of NPK fertilizers to Zimbabwe were also from a high base during the first half of the ten
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Africa 168764 198244 201700 178697 156328 128924 113752 81572 61744 49531
Americas 274 784 475 315 1392 622 803 1479 688 1267
Asia 81 201 184 89 257 186 101 54 259 334
Europe 0 5 202 56 14 25 43 99 33 166
Oceania 0 87 62 0 59 111 99 141 101 479
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Vo
lum
e in
To
ns
Years
Figure 11: Export volumes of Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) fertilizer to regions of the world, 2006 - 2015
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Angola 641 695 4908 0 20 946 5138 4040 234 149
Democratic Republic of the Congo 1216 16 261 2837 1570 1381 1489 2518 1763 4631
Malawi 17844 56163 31420 40460 12976 111 200 6072 212 7
Mozambique 2461 4756 2549 2878 4500 1212 331 644 3114 396
Zambia 76664 64140 97802 61773 71084 64713 55136 21829 8530 8943
Zimbabwe 68777 71952 62893 67605 53431 43047 44597 35817 31091 12900
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Vo
lum
e in
To
ns
Years
Figure 12: Volume of Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium to SADC, 2006 - 2015
16
year period (2006-2010) under observation attaining a peak in 2007 at approximately 71 952 tons.
Exports to Malawi were also from a high base during the first half of the ten year period (2006-2010)
under observation attaining a peak in 2007 at approximately 56 163 tons. There was a 4.8% increase in
export volumes of NPK fertilizers from South Africa to Zambia in 2015 as compared to the 2014
marketing season.
6.4 Potassium Chloride
Figure 13 presents export volumes of potassium chloride from South Africa to the world during the past
decade. Most of the exports of potassium chloride from South Africa went to Africa, followed by very
minimal exports of potassium chloride to Europe between 2006 and 2015 Exports to Africa were from a
high base during the first half of the ten year period (2006-2010) under review attaining a peak in 2015
at 25 824 tons while exports to Europe were only active between 2009 and 2010 of the period under
observation. There was a 183.6% increase in export volumes of potassium chloride from South Africa
to Africa in 2015 as compared to the 2014 marketing season.
Source: Quantec EasyData
Figure 14 presents export volumes of potassium chloride from South Africa to Africa particularly the
SADC region over the past decade. Export volumes of potassium chloride from South Africa to SADC
went mainly to Zimbabwe, followed by Zambia and Angola. Exports to Zimbabwe were from a high
base during the first half of the ten year period (2006-2010) attaining a peak in 2006 at approximately
22 595 tons. Export volumes of potassium chloride to Zimbabwe experienced a dramatic decline
between 2007 and 2012 to low volumes of about 255 tons. However, exports of potassium chloride to
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Africa 24880 19766 9551 21831 6954 7618 1304 9672 9105 25824
Europe 0 0 0 15 1000 0 0 0 0 0
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Vo
lum
e in
To
ns
Years
Figure 13: Export volumes of Potassium Chloride to the world, 2006 - 2015
17
Zimbabwe have been on the rise during the past three years recording increase of 1203% and
increasing sharply by 391.7% in 2015 compared to 2014 season. Exports to Zambia attained a peak in
2010 at approximately 10 125 tons. There was an 864.3% increase in export volumes of potassium
chloride from South Africa to Zambia in 2015 as compared to the 2014 marketing season.
Source: Quantec EasyData
6.5 Potassium Sulphate
Figure 15 shows export volumes of potassium sulphate from South Africa to the world between 2006
and 2015.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Angola 0 0 178 0 0 300 336 8268 4118 2372
Democratic Republic of the Congo 0 10 5 0 0 9 28 0 4 32
Mozambique 0 61 1507 116 43 473 261 90 256 232
United Republic of Tanzania 0 0 0 1512 1008 0 0 0 0 142
Zambia 2055 7933 35 7044 3660 4128 2 353 1050 10125
Zimbabwe 22595 11759 7583 1575 1986 2638 255 619 1981 9430
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Vo
lum
e in
To
ns
Years
Figure 14: Export volumes of Potassium Chloride to SADC member states, 2006 - 2015
18
Source: Quantec EasyData
It is clear from Figure 15 that export volumes of potassium sulphate to the world went mainly to Africa,
followed by minimal export volumes to Europe. Export volumes of potassium sulphate to Africa were
from a high base during the first half (2006-2010) of the ten year period under review attaining a peak in
2006 at approximately 10 559 tons. During the second half of the same period (2011-2015) under
review, export volumes of potassium sulphate to Africa reached a maximum of approximately 4 110
tons in 2011. Europe only managed to import potassium sulphate from South Africa in 2009 and 2010
at an export quantity of 762 and 68 tons respectively. There was an 8.6% increase in export volumes of
potassium sulphate from South Africa to Africa in 2015 as compared to 2014 marketing season.
Figure 16 below illustrates export volumes of potassium sulphate from South Africa to the SADC region
over the past ten years. The major export market for potassium sulphate from South Africa to SADC
was Zimbabwe, followed by to a lesser extent Zambia, Mozambique and Malawi. On average, South
Africa exported 3 365 tons of potassium sulphate to Zimbabwe over the past decade. Exports of
potassium sulphate from South Africa to Zimbabwe attained a peak in 2006 at approximately 10 020
tons in the first half of the ten year period (2006-2010). During the second half of the ten year period
(2011-2015), exports of potassium sulphate to Zimbabwe were from a low base attaining a maximum of
about 3 223 tons in 2011. There was a decrease of 25.6% in export volumes of potassium sulphate
from South Africa to Zimbabwe in 2015 as compared to 2014 marketing season.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Africa 10559 8291 3774 3316 2430 4110 2251 3525 2783 3022
Europe 0 0 0 762 68 0 0 0 0 0
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Vo
lum
e in
To
ns
Years
Figure 15: Export volumes of Potassium Sulphate to the world, 2006 - 2015
19
Source: Quantec EasyData
6.6 Superphosphate
Figure 17 presents export quantities of superphosphate fertilizers from South Africa to the world during
the past decade. The only export market for superphosphate fertilizer during the past decade was
Africa, mainly the SADC region. On average, South Africa exported 6 346 tons of superphosphate
fertilizer to Africa over the past decade. Export volumes of superphosphate from South Africa to Africa
were from a high base during the first half of the ten year period (2006-2010) attaining a peak in 2006
at export quantity of approximately 18 712. There was a 72.3% decrease in export quantity of
superphosphate fertilizer from South Africa to Africa in 2015 as compared to 2014.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Malawi 84 0 0 0 790 150 3 7 32 0
Mozambique 1 26 27 0 98 0 348 656 25 50
Zambia 188 111 82 1206 555 399 123 1088 174 491
Zimbabwe 10020 7889 3664 1840 423 3223 1621 1424 2033 1512
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Vo
lum
e in
To
ns
Years
Figure 16: Export volumes of potassium Sulphate to SADC member states, 2006 - 2015
20
Source: Quantec EasyData
Export volumes of superphosphate fertilizer from South Africa to the SADC region are shown in Figure
18 below.
Source: Quantec EasyData
Most of superphosphate fertilizer exports from South Africa to SADC went to Zimbabwe, followed by
minimal exports to Malawi Mozambique and Zambia. On average, South Africa exported 2 581 tons of
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Africa 18712 305 577 10732 11658 5880 4096 5216 4921 1364
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Vo
lum
e in
To
ns
Years
Figure 17: Export volumes of Superphosphate to the world, 2006 - 2015
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Malawi 196 114 407 208 223 60 0 0 32 0
Mozambique 150 126 3 25 39 17 205 100 139 108
Zambia 17943 64 30 0 30 1037 0 0 0 219
Zimbabwe 409 0 132 3487 10267 2183 1038 1623 3818 273
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Vo
lum
e in
To
ns
Years
Figure 18: Export volumes of Superphosphate to SADC member states, 2006 - 2015
21
superphosphate fertilizer to Zimbabwe over the past ten years. Export volumes of superphosphate
fertilizers to Zimbabwe were from a high base during the second half of the ten year period (2011-2015)
attaining a peak in 2010 at approximately 10 267 tons. Exports to Malawi and Mozambique were very
low and not more than 700 tons per annum. There was a 92.9% decrease in exports of superphosphate
fertilizers from South Africa to Zimbabwe in 2015 as compared to 2014.
7. IMPORT VOLUMES OF FERTILIZERS
7.1 Urea
Import volumes of Urea fertilizers from the world into South Africa over the past ten years are shown in
Figure 19. Most of the Urea fertilizers from the world into South Africa over the past decade were
mainly from Asia, followed by minimal import volumes from Europe and Africa. On average, South
Africa imported 625 179 tons of Urea fertilizer from Asia over the past ten years. Imports of Urea
fertilizers from Asia into South Africa were from a low base during the first half of the ten year period
(2006-2010) attaining a maximum of 656 694 tons in 2010 while the imports were from a high base
during the second half of the ten year period (2011-2015) attaining a peak in 2014 at an import volume
of approximately 865 600 tons. Imports from Europe and Africa were very intermittent over the same
ten year period under review. There was a 30.2% decrease in import volumes of Urea from Asia into
South Africa during 2015 as compared to 2014.
22
Source: Quantec EasyData
Figure 20 presents import volumes of Urea fertilizers from Western Asia into South Africa during the
past decade. Saudi Arabia was the major supplier for Urea fertilizers imported by South Africa, followed
by Qatar between 2006 and 2015 marketing season. On average, South Africa imported 262 864 tons
of Urea fertilizers from Saudi Arabia over the past ten years. Imports from Saudi Arabia into South
Africa attained a peak in 2007 at approximately 336 054 tons. On average, South Africa imported 230
559 tons of Urea fertilizers from Qatar over the past decade. Imports from Qatar into South Africa
attained a peak in 2012 at approximately 281 547 tons. There was a 10.8% decrease in import volumes
of urea fertilizers from Saudi Arabia into South Africa during 2015 as compared to 2014. There was a
1.5% decline in import volumes of urea fertilizers from Qatar into South Africa during 2015 as compared
to 2014 marketing season.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Africa 5851 3226 6753 125 144 63 65 0 32 151
Asia 492227 560634 539208 509315 656694 679573 745813 598290 865600 604431
Europe 37731 97146 73859 7615 21951 94207 54818 47606 39308 58170
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
Vo
lue
in T
on
s
Years
Figure 19: Import volumes of Urea fertilizers from the world, 2006 - 2015
23
Source: Quantec EasyData
7.2 Limestone Ammonium Nitrate (LAN)
Figure 21 presents import volumes of Limestone Ammonium Nitrate (LAN) fertilizers from the world into
South Africa between 2006 and 2015 marketing seasons. The major supplier of LAN fertilizers from the
world into South Africa was Europe, followed by minimal import volumes from Asia, Americas and
Africa to a lesser extend over the past decade. On average, South Africa imported 87 544 tons of LAN
fertilizers from Europe over the past ten years. Imports from Europe into South Africa attained a peak in
2008 and again in 2013 at approximately 151 046 and 146 828 tons respectively. There was a 41.6%
decline in import volumes of LAN fertilizers from Europe into South Africa during 2014 as compared to
2013 followed by another 36% decline in 2015. Within Europe, the major supplier region of LAN is the
European Union. Figure 22 below disaggregates the region.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Qatar 237973 204069 234262 175277 201145 243469 281547 262787 234337 230719
Saudi Arabia 253189 336054 261459 277477 327638 279318 310552 191792 206714 184444
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
Vo
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Years
Figure 20: Import volumes of Urea Fertilizers from Western Asia, 2006 - 2015
24
Source: Quantec EasyData
Figure 22 shows import volumes of Limestone Ammonium Nitrate (LAN) fertilizers from the European
Union into South Africa over the past ten years. The major supplier of LAN fertilizers from European
Union into South Africa was from the Netherlands, followed by Belgium, Germany and recently Latvia
over the past ten years. In 2015, Netherlands, Belgium and Latvia accounted for 87% of all LAN
imports to South Africa from Europe.. On average, South Africa imported 29 879 tons of LAN fertilizers
from the Netherlands over the past ten years. Import volumes of LAN fertilizers from the Netherlands
into South Africa attained a peak in 2011 at approximately 77 610 tons, while import volumes of LAN
fertilizers from Germany attained a peak in 2013 at approximately 60 205 tons. There was a 15%
decline in import volumes of LAN fertilizers from Netherlands into South Africa during 2015 as
compared to 2014. Imports from Netherlands and Germany have been declining over the past three
years.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World 55532 66083 164462 25652 104834 131625 35020 145957 87813 58465
Africa 0 0 0 0 0 1811 0 0 0 0
Americas 0 0 13200 0 0 22 0 0 0 0
Asia 0 0 216 200 325 7424 0 3330 2024 3895
Europe 55532 66083 151046 25452 104509 122368 35020 142628 85790 54570
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
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Years
Figure 21: Imports volumes of Limestone Ammonium Nitrate (LAN) fertilizers from the world, 2006 - 2015
25
Source: Quantec EasyData
7.3 Mono-Ammonium Phosphate (MAP)
Import volumes of Mono-Ammonium Phosphate (MAP) fertilizers from the world into South Africa are
depicted in Figure 23. Most of the import volumes of MAP fertilizers from the world into South Africa
during the period under scrutiny were mainly from Europe, followed by Asia and minimal import
volumes from Americas and Africa. On average, South Africa imported 43 755 tons of MAP fertilizers
from Europe over the past decade. Imports from Europe into South Africa attained a peak in 2015 at
approximately 88599 tons, while imports from Asia into South Africa attained a peak also in 2015 at
approximately 98 224 tons. There was 21.2% increase in export volumes of MAP fertilizers from Europe
into South Africa during 2015 as compared to 2014.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Europe 55532 66083 151046 25452 104509 122368 35020 142628 85790 54570
Belgium 42142 35364 20230 17828 12510 14777 7907 7704 6306 13817
Germany 2850 0 970 3150 1370 2122 176 60205 23844 450
Spain 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17350 0 0
Greece 0 16500 0 0 1980 16500 0 3600 0 0
Latvia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16470 4466
Netherlands 10400 11401 0 4474 67082 77610 26937 37568 34181 29140
Romania 0 0 40968 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000
Vo
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To
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Years
Figure 22: import volumes of Limestone Ammonium Nitrate (LAN) from EU, 2006 - 2015
26
Source: Quantec EasyData
Figure 24 illustrates import volumes of Mono-Ammonium Phosphate (MAP) fertilizers from Western
Europe into South Africa over the past ten years.
Source: Quantec EasyData
The major supplier of MAP fertilizers from Western Europe into South Africa over the past ten years
was the Russian Federation. On average, South Africa imported 33 974 tons of MAP fertilizers from
Russian Federation over the past decade. Imports from Russian Federation into South Africa were from
a high base during the second half of the ten year period (2011-2015) under review attaining a peak in
2015 at approximately 88 591 tons. Between 2006 and 2009, import volumes of MAP fertilizers from
the Russian Federation into South Africa were low and not more than 30 000 tons per annum. There
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Africa 4000 0 0 0 0 0 42758 12600 1528 65512
Americas 61454 9440 9670 5045 18 0 20913 5961 0 8392
Asia 15928 53613 78542 7270 3852 68898 14227 5502 95357 98224
Europe 39365 5670 5290 24627 14204 56789 61536 68383 73087 88599
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Vo
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To
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Years
Figure 23: Import volumes of Mono-Ammonium Phosphate from the world, 2006 - 2015
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Russian Federation 26015 2430 3361 0 13596 56242 61530 68378 19601 88591
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
Vo
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Years
Figure 24: Import Volumes of Mono-Ammonium Phosphate from Eastern Europe, 2006 - 2015
27
was a 351.9% increase in import volumes of MAP fertilizers from the Russian Federation into South
Africa during 2015 as compared to 2014.
7.4 Potassium Sulphate
Import volumes of potassium sulphate from the world into South Africa over the past ten years are
shown in Figure 25. The major supplier of potassium sulphate fertilizers from the world into South Africa
was Europe, followed by the Americas and Asia over the same period under examination. On average,
South Africa imported 22 651 tons of potassium sulphate fertilizers from Europe over the past ten
years. Imports from Europe into South Africa attained a peak in 2013 at approximately 43 513 tons,
while imports from the Americas into South Africa attained a peak in 2012 at approximately 32 460
tons. Imports from Asia into South Africa attained a peak in 2014 at approximately 34 519 tons. It is
also clear from Figure 25 that there was a 15.8% decline in import volumes of potassium sulphate from
Europe into South Africa during 2015 as compared to 2014.
Source: Quantec EasyData
Import volumes of potassium sulphate from European Union into South Africa over the past decade are
illustrated in Figure 26. Most of potassium sulphate fertilizer imports from the European Union into
South Africa were from Germany, followed by Belgium over the past ten year period under review. On
average, South Africa imported 16 260 tons of potassium sulphate fertilizers from Germany over the
past decade. Imports from Germany into South Africa attained a peak in 2008 at approximately 30 339
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Americas 29901 24570 13182 20151 20131 21806 32460 3423 3376 3000
Asia 50 49 1065 0 2887 5060 5042 3532 34519 13695
Europe 10207 14145 32360 3858 23157 25754 23098 43513 27373 23045
05000
100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000
Vo
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To
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Years
Figure 25: Import volumes of Potassium Sulphate from the world, 2006 - 2015
28
tons, while imports from Belgium into South Africa attained a peak in 2013 at approximately 13 888
tons. There was a 23.6% decline in import volumes of potassium sulphate fertilizers from Germany into
South Africa during 2015 as compared to 2014.
Source: Quantec EasyData
7.5 Potassium Chloride
Import volumes of potassium chloride from the world into South Africa during the past ten years are
depicted in Figure 27.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Belgium 2476 1626 1054 2838 12371 1855 7243 13888 3336 5182
Germany 7534 11878 30339 1016 9936 22846 14779 26645 21323 16299
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Vo
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Years
Figure 26: Import volumes of Potassium Suplate from European Union member states, 2006 - 2015
29
Source: Quantec EasyData
The major supplier for potassium chloride fertilizers from the world into South Africa is Europe, followed
by Asia, Americas and minimal import volumes from Africa. On average, South Africa imported 106 501
tons of potassium chloride fertilizers from Europe between 2006 and 2015 marketing seasons. Import
volumes of potassium chloride from Europe into South Africa were from a high base during the first half
of the ten year period (2006-2010) under review attaining a peak in 2008 at approximately 150 728
tons. Imports from Asia into South Africa attained a peak in 2006 at approximately 150 728 tons. There
was a 12.7% increase in import volumes of potassium chloride from Europe into South Africa during
2015 as compared to 2014.
Figure 28 presents import volumes of potassium chloride fertilizers from the European Union into South
Africa over the past ten years. Most of the potassium chloride fertilizers from the European Union into
South Africa were mainly from Germany, followed by very minimal imports from Lithuania over the
same period under scrutiny. On average, South Africa imported 82 709 tons of potassium chloride
fertilizers from Germany between 2006 and 2015 marketing season. Imports from Germany into South
Africa were from a high base during the first half of the ten year period (2006-2015) under review
attaining a peak in 2007 at approximately 110 613 tons. There was a 3.2% increase in import volumes
of potassium chloride fertilizers from Europe into South Africa during 2015 as compared to 2014.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Africa 0 0 0 0 800 0 196 285 557 0
Americas 18654 28306 13604 60238 78732 90719 95421 112213 134410 135362
Asia 130887 112725 107050 18910 97564 82728 60755 59270 128413 108816
Europe 106881 114414 150728 60420 90324 93672 94938 102318 118132 133181
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Vo
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Years
Figure 27: Import volumes of Potassium Chloride from the world, 2006 - 2015
30
Source: Quantec EasyData
7.6 Superphosphate
Figure 29 presents import volumes of superphosphate fertilizers from the world into South Africa over
the past decade. The major supplying market for superphosphate fertilizers from the world into South
Africa was Asia, followed by very minimal imports from Africa and Europe over the same period under
review. On average, South Africa imported 23 532 tons of superphosphate fertilizers from Asia between
2006 and 2015 marketing seasons. Imports from Asia into South Africa attained a peak in 2008 at
approximately 58 698 tons. There were no imports of superphosphate fertilizers from Africa into South
Africa between 2006, 2007 and 2009. There was a 41.4% decrease in import volumes of
superphosphate fertilizers from Asia into South Africa during 2015 as compared to 2014.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany 101629 110613 106987 55885 47833 85321 75715 72535 83960 86614
Lithuania 0 0 9900 98 0 0 16804 0 22220 0
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Vo
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Years
Figure 28: Import volumes of Potassium Chloride from European Union member states, 2006 - 2015
31
Source: Quantec EasyData
Import volumes of superphosphate fertilizers from Western Asia into South Africa during the past ten
years are indicated in Figure 30. The major supplying market for superphosphate fertilizers from
Western Asia into South Africa was Israel. On average, South Africa imported 21132 tons of
superphosphate fertilizers from Israel between 2006 and 2015. Imports from Israel into South Africa
attained a peak in 2008 at approximately 51 948 tons. During the second half of the ten year period
(2006-2010), imports from Israel into South Africa were low and not more than 21 000 tons per annum.
There was a 42.4% decline in import volumes of superphosphate fertilizers from Israel into South Africa
during 2015 as compared to 2014.
Source: Quantec EasyData
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Africa 0 0 14000 0 7176 4051 11610 1000 2200 5860
Asia 37399 15608 58698 9072 19308 19812 17887 21631 22643 13264
Europe 0 1919 288 0 0 500 2700 0 0 5500
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Vo
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Years
Figure 29: Import Volumes of Superphosphate from the world, 2006 - 2015
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Israel 37399 15608 51948 6214 17624 19812 17887 20119 15684 9030
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Vo
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Years
Figure 30: Import volumes of Superphosphate from Western Asia, 2006 - 2015
32
8. SWOT Analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats)
Strengths
Financial leverage – ability for farmers to use debt to expand business and increase profits;
Customer loyalty- customers are loyal to manufacturers/blenders according to additional
service provided;
Customer services manufacturers/blenders often supply technical assistance;
Brand name- consumers place value in the brand name.
Opportunities
Online market- online markets offers the industry to expand by reaching much broader
audience;
Innovation – space remains for innovations to produce unique products or service that meet
customer needs;
Loosening regulations- South Africa ‘s fertilizer industry operates in a free market;
New markets- a great opportunity are the African countries and exports to India, Japan and
Columbia.
Weaknesses
High debt burden – A total growth in total farm debt;
Out-dated technology- South Africa’s infrastructure that is used to produce primary fertiliser
materials is very old and very expensive to replace;
Weak supply chain - a highly concentrated fertiliser supply chain.
Threats
Volatile currency- price differences are also caused by factors such as the volatile exchange
rate;
Natural factors - seasonal variations are caused by regional droughts and short term
fluctuations in the financial position of the farm sector;
Intense competition- the South African fertilizer market face stiff competition from overseas
countries;
Volatile revenue - fertilizer is a vitally important determinant of the profitability; and
Political risk - policy uncertainty and political will to invest in fertilizer exploration and capacity
expansion programmes.
33
9. ROLE PLAYERS IN THE FERTILZER INDUSTRY
Table 4: Key Stakeholders
Fertilizer industries
Type of fertilizers
Physical Address
Postal Address
Telephone number
Email address
8.1 Kynoch Liquid, Granular and water soluble fertilizers
Ross street Johannesburg 2125 South Africa
011 317 2000 [email protected]
8.2 Sasol Granular and Liquid fertilizers
1 Sturdee Avenue Rosebank Johannesburg(SA) 2196
P.O Box 5486 Johannesburg(SA) 2000
011 441 3111
8.3 Omnia (Nutriology-Nutrilogie)
Liquid, Granular and specialty fertilizers
Omonia house Epsom Downs office park 13 Sloane st Bryanston
P.O .Box 69888 Bryanston 2021
011 709 8888 [email protected]
8.4 Profert Granular and Liquid fertilizers
43 Ross street Potchefstroom North West (SA) 2531
018 293 3530 [email protected]
8.5 TRIOMF Granular, Liquid and Specialty fertilizers
TRIOMF road Potchefstroom 2531 North West (SA)
P.O Box 505 Potchefstroom 2520
086 187 4663/ 018 285 1291
8.6 Nutri-flo Granular and Liquid fertilizers
P.O Box 242 Umhlali 4390
032 947 0211 [email protected]
8.7 Greenlands
2 Michelin street, N.W 7 Vanderbijlpark 1911
P.O Box 6852 Vanderbijlpark 1900
016 986 0130 [email protected]
8.9Nitrophoska (PTY) Ltd
Liquid, Granular and other fertilizers
Showgrown, George 6529,SA Western Cape
P.O Box 1138 George 6530
044 873 6221/ 044 873 6261
8.10 Jara Liquid and Granular fertilizers
5167 Russel street George 6529 SA Western Cape
044 514 3185
34
10. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The following organizations are acknowledged:
9.1 Quantec Easy Data
www.easydata.co.za
9.2 Grain SA
www.grainsa.co.za
9.3 Fertilizer Association of Southern Africa (FERTASA)
www.fertasa.co.za
9.4 Statistical and Economic Analysis, DAFF
www.daff.gov.za
