South Korea Oct 2010 Walter Derzko V3

8/8/2019 South Korea Oct 2010 Walter Derzko V3

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Topics & Format

9.45am Part 1-Designing and using Smart Technologies-45 min with questions

10.30 Break

11.30 am Part 2-Opportunity recognition as a process ,the Opportunity Clinic -60 minutes with questions

12.30 Lunch

2:15pm Part3 -Designing winning business models

and the cognitive/ thinking skills to accelerateopportunity recognition -45 minutes with questions

3.00 Break

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy

Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667


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As we go through this

presentation..think about 4 things

1) What one item did I find fascinating about smarttechnologies? Whats my one take-away idea?

2) What one/two items/ideas can I apply in my business /workplace today?

3) What item/idea do I find terrifying or frightening?

4) What item/idea do I find interesting and would likemore information on?




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New Emerging Business Opportunities;What makes us rich?

Part 1-Designing and Using

Smart Technologies

by

Walter DerzkoSmart Economy

TorontoWalter Derzko; Smart Economy



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Insights come from past 35 years

Lateral Thinker-in-residence-McLuhan Programin Culture and Technology, SGS, U of Toronto

Director Idea Lab at the Design Exchange (DX)Toronto

Lecturer-Certificate Program in Entrepreneurshipand Innovation, U of T

Senior Fellow Strategic Innovation Lab, S-Lab,

OCADU, Toronto Lecturer- MA program in Strategic Foresight andInnovation, OCAD University in Toronto




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StrategicInnovationLab (sLab)A research centre

for strategic foresightand innovation atOCAD University,Toronto, Canada


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Master of Design inStrategic Foresightand Innovation

Canadas firststrategic foresight

graduate program


8/146Walter Derzko; Smart Economy; Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667. [email protected]

Smart Technologies in the Smart

Economy

6 Overview Topics

What is a smart technology?

Definition Framework & Categories

Examples

Impacts and Consequences of Smart Technologies

Roadmaps


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Nanotech? Biotech ?Info ?

Nanotech? Biotech ?Infotech ?/Convergence?

Whats the common denominator?

Not technology thats important, new

designer capabilities

Things become smarter; more intelligent Changing landscape

New ground rules


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Definition

What Makes a Object / System Smart?

Generally speaking, if a system /machine/artifact does something that we think an

intelligent person can do, we consider that

object to be smart.


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Misnomers

Smart Car ? Intelligent orStylish?

Various adjectives: smart,intelligent, active, dynamic,

wise

The WV "Golf Gti 53 plus 1" has radarand laser sensors to "read" the road

and send the details back to its

computer brain.

Drivers Wanted to.Drivers Optional
http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/golfgti300606_228x175.jpg


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How do I know if I have

a smart technology?

You can't paint all

products with the

same "smart" brush.

Recognizing that some products or

technologies are smarter then others, we

have developed an intelligence scale todistinguish between levels of

smartness" or intelligence.


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IntelligenceLevel (1)

Adapting: Modifying Behavior to Fit theEnvironment


Sensing: Bringing Awareness toEveryday Things


Inferring: Drawing Conclusions fromRules and Observations


Learning: Using Experience to ImprovePerformance


Anticipating: Thinking and Reasoning aboutWhat to Do Next


Self-creating, Able to reproduce itself


Self-organizing

Ability for components to self-organize


Self-sustaining(A)

Ability to replicatecomponents


Self-sustaining(B)

Ability to process information


Self-sustaining(C)

Ability to steadily consumeenergy from the environment

2005-2006 Walter Derzko


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Intelligence Level (1)

Adapting: Modifying Behaviour to Fit the Environment

Adaptive networks, GPS, directory services,collaborative filtering, humanized interfaces,

Basic adapting objects i.e smart clothes


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Sensing: Bringing Awareness to Everyday Things

Sensors, embedded systems (smart badges,smart bricks, smart bridges, smart levees,)

smart environments, smart materials (smart

cement, packaging), smart cameras, smartdoors


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Intelligence Level (3)Inferring: Drawing Conclusions from Rules & Observations

Expert systems, knowledge bases, inferenceengines, fuzzy logic, basic AI

Darpa Grand Challenge --Driverless Car Race-front end logistics


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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy , Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667. [email protected]


Learning: Using Experience to Improve Performance

Subfields of Advanced AI; Case BasedReasoning (CBR), neural nets, genetic

programming,

intelligent agents , AUVs, exoskeletons

ll l ( )
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy. Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667 [email protected]


Anticipating: Thinking & Reasoning about What to Do Next

goal-directed systems, robots, artificial lifesoftware,

Smart mind-controlled wheelchair


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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy, Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]

Intelligence Level (6) Self-Organizing: Self-generating

at the cellular or nano level

Self-organizing systems, complex awareness,cognition, self-reproduction and self-healing,

if injured


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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy, Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667;

[email protected]

Tetrad Automobile & Infrastructure1) What gets

Enhanced?2) What gets

Retrieved?

Brought Back

3) What gets

Obsolesced?

Left Behind?

4) At the extreme,

What gets Flippedor Reversed?
http://www.enterstageright.com/archive/articles/0702/070802gridlock.jpghttp://www.ausbcomp.com/~bbott/WINRR/w10msfa.maphttp://www.smugmug.com/photos/64104930-D.jpg


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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy Toronto, Canada 416-829-9667; [email protected]

Smart Technology Impacts?

Pervasive, Ubiquitous

Disruptive (think computers & secretaries)


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Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy Blog



Pervasive, Ubiquitous

Disruptive

As great as the emergence of writing,language & the PC

Look for obvious & hidden 2 & 3 effects

Creeping up silently on society


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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy; Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]


Pervasive, Ubiquitous, Disruptive

As great as the emergence of writing, language &the PC



What controls /regulations do we have overadoption?

Erroneous assumption that everything will be

positive


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Pervasive, Ubiquitous Disruptive As great as the emergence of writing, language & the PC Look for obvious & hidden 2 & 3 effects


What controls do we have over adoption? Erroneous assumption that everything will be positive Google smart technology July 27, 2006> 300 Million hits ;

Oct 20, 2010 > 15,300 hits in 24 hours No standards, no regulations , fragmented market


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Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]


Pervasive, Ubiquitous Disruptive

As great as the emergence of writing, language & the PC



What controls do we have over adoption?

Erroneous assumption that everything will be positive

Google smart technology July 27, 2006> 300 Million hits

No standards, regulations yet

Not in the public mindset yet

Lack of public discourse,

Very few media sources have grasped the social significanceyet

How will the Smart Economy evolve?


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Thought Leaders

12th Micro-Machine Summit in Beijing, China April,2006

17 Countries/Regions

Australia

Canada

China

The Netherlands

EC France

Germany

India S. Korea

Nordic

Mediterranean

Singapore

Switzerland Taiwan United Kingdom United States

SpainGreece Portugal Italy

(.like the World Cup for MEMS)

Denmark Norway Finland Sweden


Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]


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14th Micromachine Summit 2008 April 30 - May 3, 2008, Daejeon, Korea

SOUTH KOREA

Chief Delegate Young-Ho Cho

Delegates Jong-Uk Bu, Sang-Rok Lee, Yong-Soo Oh,

Observers Il Doh

Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667

http://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.html


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Micromachine Summit 2010 (16th) April 28 - April 30, 2010,

Dortmund, Germany

Micromachine Summit 2009 (15th) May 5 - May 8, 2009,

Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Micromachine Summit 2008 (14th) April30 - May 3, 2008,

Daejeon, Korea

Micromachine Summit2007 (13th) April 27 - 29, 2007, Venice, Italy


Thought Leaders

Source: http://www.micromachinesummit.org/

Walter Derzko; Smart EconomyToronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]
http://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2010/2010.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2010/2010.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2009/Summit2009.pdfhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2009/Summit2009.pdfhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2007-Venice/home.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2007-Venice/home.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2009/Summit2009.pdfhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2009/Summit2009.pdfhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2009/Summit2009.pdfhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2009/Summit2009.pdfhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2010/2010.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2010/2010.html


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EC Roadmap


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A mite next to a gear set

produced using MEMS

Courtesy: Sandia National Laboratories,

SUMMiTTM Technologies,

www.mems.sandia.gov

A larger MEMS object

Courtesy: 12th Micro-Machine Summit in

Beijing, China April,2006

4t Wave of IT: Forrester
mailto:[email protected]://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Nanogearandbug.jpgmailto:[email protected]


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Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy BlogToronto, Canada 416-819-9667

4t Wave of IT: Forrester

Source: Philips Medical Systems (7th FWP refers to the European Union's Seventh Framework Program)


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N B ildi Bl k


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Walter Derzko; Smart EconomyToronto, Canada 416-8199667; [email protected]

Nano Building Blocks17 Nano-related Terms to Learn

Nanoparticles

Nanocomposites

Nanocapsules

Nanoporous materials

Nanofibres Thin Films and Surface

Layers

NanoparticulateCoatings

Nano plumbing

Pristine Fullerenes

Fullerene derivatives

Carbon Nanotubes (SWNT& MWNT)

Carbon Nanohorns

Quantum Dots(20 nm wide and 8 nm in height)

Nano-onions

Dendrimers

Nanowires Nanomagnets


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Imagine, its now October, 2025

New Technologies?

New Capabilities?


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Dilemma ?

We are trying to plan for:

Technologies that have not been invented

Jobs that dont exist yet

Problems that we cant anticipate yet

Applications that we have yet to imagine

Risks that we cant quantify yet

Viable systems that havent been designed yet

and Creative and Systems type thinking, that mostpeople are not use to doing

T l & St t i


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Walter Derzko; The Smart EconomyToronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]

Tools & Strategies

Incorporate Science and Technology Horizon

Scanning

Decision-making & Opportunityspotting

Design Issues Management processes Policydevelopment

Organize Scenario planning workshops &Technology Roadmaps to handle uncertainty

Joint Foresight Exercises within industry &

government on NanoBioSmartTech convergence Conduct Opportunity Audits & Clinics jump on

competition


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Remember.Homework..make amental/written note about 4 things


2) What one/two items/ideas can I apply in my business /workplace today?


4) What item/idea do I find interesting and would likemore on?



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The End-Part 1 of 3

Thank you for your attention

Happy to answer any questions

Visit the Smart Economy bloghttp://www.smarteconomy.typepad.com

Watch for the upcoming books onOpportunities and smart technologies .

Follow-ups; call Walter Derzko at 416-

819-9667 or [email protected] [email protected]
http://www.smarteconomy.typepad.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.smarteconomy.typepad.com/


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New Emerging Business

Opportunities;What makes us rich?Part 2 -The Opportunity Clinic

By

Walter Derzko

Smart EconomyToronto



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The Opportunity Clinic

How to become more opportunity savvy?

Approaches to opportunity recognition

Examples of Opportunity Scenarios



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Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667

Definition

An opportunity is a course of action that ispossible and obviously worth pursuing.

Not a high risk speculation but somethingworth pursuing and obvious in its benefits

Problems -> solutions

Opportunities -> benefits


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Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667

More quotes about Opportunities

Just before it comes into existence, everybusiness is an opportunity that someone hasseen

An opportunity is as real an ingredient inbusiness as raw materials, labor or finance-butit only exists when you can see it.

Often Negative image-opportunism


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Chance favors the prepared mind

L Pasteur

Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667; [email protected]


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Myths about Opportunities &

Recessions

Opportunities occur only in boom times

Most of the worlds millionaires andbillionaires made their fortunes in

recessionary/ depression periods over the last

200 years, according to Malcolm Gladwell in

Outliers


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Myth

Opportunities occur only in boom times

Sir Richard Branson thinks that the next generation of self-madebillionaires will emerge from the wreckage of this recession.

Sir Richard said: "There are a lot of Richard Bransons that will come out ofthe next three or four years."

The Virgin founder says that the depth of the recession and its impact ononce-impregnable industries has given entrepreneurs their best

opportunity in generations.

"Fortunes are made out of recessions..A lot of entrepreneurs get going

in the economic depths because the barriers to entry are lower," he said

--Branson says recession is time of opportunity The Times. London (UK): Mar 9, 2009. pg. 36

O t iti h i d t t
http://proquest.umi.com.myaccess.library.utoronto.ca/pqdlink?RQT=318&pmid=34402&TS=1245119941&clientId=12520&VInst=PROD&VName=PQD&VType=PQDhttp://proquest.umi.com.myaccess.library.utoronto.ca/pqdlink?RQT=572&VType=PQD&VName=PQD&VInst=PROD&pmid=34402&pcid=42132211&SrchMode=3http://proquest.umi.com.myaccess.library.utoronto.ca/pqdlink?RQT=572&VType=PQD&VName=PQD&VInst=PROD&pmid=34402&pcid=42132211&SrchMode=3http://proquest.umi.com.myaccess.library.utoronto.ca/pqdlink?RQT=318&pmid=34402&TS=1245119941&clientId=12520&VInst=PROD&VName=PQD&VType=PQD


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Opportunities happens in downturns too-even more

soBusinesses formed Innovations launched

Strategic shifts made Disruptors surged

Source: Scott Anthony

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Microsoft_wordmark.svghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:University_of_Phoenix.svghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Southwest_Airlines_Logo.svghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NCR_corporation_logo.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/35/Ipod_1G.png


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The Opportunity Clinic

What new insightsdo you get from thiscartoon aboutopportunities?

List as many aspossible

Record is 26



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Insights from thecartoon aboutOpportunities?

Business Offering

(concrete idea)

Generic Concept

(concept behind theidea)

How do I leverage thisconcept even more?

Fisherman is using the

wrong bait?

Sell him the right bait How do I attract

opportunities to come tome? vs. me looking forthem?

How can I become even

more opportunitysensitive? Alert? Anopportunity magnet?

Fisherman was late forthe fishing season?

Sell him a calendar andreminder service

Opportunity windowtiming is critical

Oppn windows open/close

Do I have a portfolio ofOppn Windows for eachbusiness cycle phase?


The

Opportunity

Clinic


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Opportunity is a matter of perception


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Opportunities exist everywhere


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Opportunities exist everywhere,

even at the bottom of a recession

O t iti i t h


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How do you findopportunities in

a no-growth or

a slow-growth

economy?

Unstated main

concern ofupcoming G8-20

summit

Opportunities exist everywhere

f f


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Definition of an Opportunity Space

If an opportunity falls within our opportunityspace, then we can act upon it.

Opportunity space includes all the changes,decisions and choices that we can make, as

well as the assets we are using and actions we

can take.

f f (


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Definition of an Opportunity Space (or

Opportunity Bubble)

I can make changes in these areas.

These are the decisions I can make.

These choices are up to me.

I can take actions of this sort.

I have the use of these assets.

Personal, department, corporate, national,international


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d ?


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My Opportunity Space today?

(Continued )An opportunity to:Make contacts

Provide contacts

Make new friends

Arrange further consulting work or in-house training

Learn about different types of industries

Learn about the business climate in different industries inSouth Korea

Recommend or praise a colleague with potential for

reciprocityUse a captive audience to try new ideas or approaches

Find out which promotions were most effective in bringingparticipants to the seminar


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HBR June 2008

Plan A , but

no Plan B or

Plan C



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What do these businesses have in common?



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Nostalgia Opportunity Window-- Class Exercise #1

Think of other nostalgia examples of up-scaled /adult versionsfrom fond memories that you had/ remember as a child?

What did you enjoy as a child that could be turned into an adultversion and a resulting business opportunity?


Problem solving vs Paradox unraveling


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Problem-solving vs Paradox-unravelingOpportunity Windows

Traditional Problem Solving Paradigm; look

for solutions

Clash

Values

Beliefs

EmotionsAssumptions

Paradox, Anomaly, Contradictions; design

new systems



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Paradox Opportunity Window

Tertec in Markham OntarioDivested their non-core video kiosk business in previousrecession.

Had 40 experienced staff and CNC machines

Dilemma? Do I Frame as problem? (optimize ROI) or as aparadox?

How to I get the CNC equipment off my balance sheet but stillretain the benefits of these assets for my business?



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Cast Away / Left Behind Opportunities

Opportunities that are ignored or discarded bythe mainstream players who are pursuing

dominant trends (see Trends Opportunities)

Situation Opportunities

Unique or repeating situations or events thatpresent opportunities



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Shortage Opportunities

Products or service or staff shortages thatpresent opportunities to fill gap or design

substitutes

Core Technology Transfer Opportunities

Shifting core technology capabilities from anobvious but recession-prone application to a

less obvious, but more profitable one



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Variable / Dynamic Value Opportunities

Opportunities that change in value fordifferent customers depending on a significant

attribute that they value

Paradox Opportunities

Opportunities that result from your ability tountangle and offer a solution to a vexing

industry paradox, anomaly or contradiction



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Synergy Opportunities

Combining previously un-associatedcomponents, attributes or features that offer

greater value combined than separate

Bundling Opportunities/Un-BundlingOpportunities

Opportunities resulting from players couplingor uncoupling their product or service offering


Taxonomy for Opportunity Recognition


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Taxonomy for Opportunity Recognition(SARASVATHY, DEW., VELAMURI, & VENKATARAMAN, 2003)

Sarasvathy Suggested three Views of Entrepreneurship/Opportunity Processes

Allocative Discovery

Creativity

Synthesis with Literature Becomes

Recognized or Scanned (look for)

Discovered (find)

Enacted or Designed (make or do)

Choice of Model

Recognized (Ardichvili, Cardozo, & Ray, 2003)

Discovered (Fiet, 2002; Fiet, Clouse, & Norton, 2004)

Enacted (Sarasvathy, 2001; Sarason, Dean, & Dillard, 2006)



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Source: Ed Leach; Dalhousie University



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Source: Ed Leach; Dalhousie University


Opportunity Recognition Process?


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Opportunity Recognition Process?

Search, scan

Discover

Design or enact

Copy Transfer


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Opportunity Playbook


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What if an entrepreneur or CEO had a playbook or menu

of Opportunity windows, patterns or scenarios that they

could use to spot, discover or design new opportunityspaces for their business ideas, products or services?

That how the Opportunity Clinic idea was born

-Traditional MBA programs cover about 12 opportunity

scenarios or windows (see next slide)

-The Opportunity Clinic has over 400 opportunity

scenarios in its database

-45 opportunity windows selected for recession/post

recession & challenging economic times

-Opportunity-45 scenario to drive your business in challengingeconomic times by J Wiley & Sons

Opportunity Playbook



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Why we miss Opportunities?


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Why we miss Opportunities?

1. We fail to see opportunities that are worthwhile to purse-we are just not looking, ignore significant information,ignore the unexpected, too content, too busy with day-to-day problems.

2. Strong commitment but we gaze in the wrong direction-

missing opportunity sensitive areas (OSA) (operations &TQM vs Business models)

3. Looking in right direction but we cannot identify theopportunity window, because we are looking at it in thewrong way (perception or bias issue)

4. We see the opportunity but cannot immediately see all thevalue and benefits

5. We see the opportunity but misjudge risks andoverestimate benefits

Strategies to become more


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Strategies to become more

Opportunity Savvy?

1. Decide to spend some time and thinking effort in adeliberate search for opportunities or to design them.

2. Use a scanning approach ( Opportunity Clinic), which allowsyou to broaden the direction of search, (looking at severalgeneric opportunity windows or scenarios) instead of being

too eager to pursue one direction in depth (ice fisherman)3. When some opportunity comes into view, make an effort to

look at it in different ways (lateral thinking), before movingon.

4. Spend some time in a deliberate search for benefits in a

situation, instead of expecting them to be self-evident

Examples of Opportunity Clinic scenarios


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Examples of Opportunity Clinic scenarios

from this recession

Water-soluble or Hydrated fullerenes (C60) Fullerenes discovered in 1985 by Robert Curl, Harold Kroto and

Richard Smalley. Won Nobel prize in chemistry in 1996

Supposed silver bullet in medicine

Hype subsided, because pristine natural or synthetic C60 notvery water soluble

Water-soluble or hydrated fullerenes (HyFN-C60) invented byUkrainian scientists in 1997

14 years of R&D, plus clinical trials

Anti-viral, anti-bacterial, high anti-oxidant, anti-malignant etc

About to be released as Fullerene Water Solution (FWS) drinkon Ukrainian market as a natural food supplement


k d


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Hydrated fullerene C60HyFn is a stable, highly

hydrophilic, supra-molecular complex consisting of

60 fullerene molecule enclosed into the first

hydrated shell that contains 24 water molecules:

C60@(H2O)24. This hydrated shell is formed as a result

ofdonor-acceptor interaction between lone-electron

pairs of oxygen, water molecules and electron-

acceptor centers on the fullerene surface.Meanwhile, the water molecules which are oriented

close to the fullerene surface are interconnected by a

three-dimensional network of hydrogen bonds. The

size of C60HyFn is 1.61.8 nm.

The maximal concentration of 60 in the form ofC60HyFn achieved by 2010 is 4 mg/mL.

[35] [36][37][38]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fullerene

Wikipedia

Opportunity Windows
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charge-transfer_complexhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charge-transfer_complexhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charge-transfer_complexhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lone_pairhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lone_pairhttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cb/C60FWS.jpghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lone_pairhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lone_pairhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charge-transfer_complex


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Opportunity Windows Left behind Opportunity Windows

Human applications to non-human or animal applications(chickens)

Human Application to agriculture applications (wheat, otherplants)



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Opportunity Windows


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Opportunity Windows Core Capability Transfer Opportunity Windows

Organic applications (prevent or mitigate blood clots inveins- anti-atherosclerotic effect)

to inorganic applications (prevent biofilms that cause rustingin oil pipelines and water pipelines)

Membrane without C60

treatment

Membrane with C60

treatment

Source: March 5, 2009 issue ofJournal of Membrane Sciences


Development of C60 nanomaterials


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Development of C60 nanomaterials.- Synthesis of new nanosized composition on the bases of metal, dielectric andsemiconducting materials.

- Development and research of bio-nanocomposites.

Physical and chemical research of C60 nanostructures.

- Research of physical and chemical properties of nanostructural materials, and inthe first place fullerenes in hydrated state.

- Research of structural organization of water and water solutions. Cluster nature ofwater.

- Research of behavioral peculiarities of physical and chemical processes inheterogeneous media, structured by hydrated fullerenes.

- Research of behavior peculiarities in water solutions of substances at their smalland super small concentrations.

- Research of the heat-conduction process in media containing nanostructuralmaterials.

- Research of photocatalytic processes in presence of nanomaterials in differentmedia.

Source: http://www.ipacom.com/index.php/en/researches



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C60 Nanostructures for medicine.

- Research of the efficiency and application of hydrated fullerenes for prevention

and treatment ofinfectious diseases and diseases of ear, throat and nose.- Research of the efficiency and application of hydrated fullerenes for childrens

diseases.

- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes in clinical treatment ofsurgical

diseases.

- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes in clinical treatment ofwomen's

diseases.- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes for lesions of internal organs in

case ofalcoholism and toxicomania.

- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes in geriatric practice.

- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes in sports medicine.

- Research and application hydrated fullerenes in balneology.



C60 Nanostructures in sports.

- Enhancement of exercise tolerance in sportsmen and their sport results without use of


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Enhancement ofexercise tolerance in sportsmen and their sport results without use of

dopes, stimulators, anabolics, etc.

- Improvement ofadaptive abilities in sportsmen under stress conditions.

C60 Nanostructures for cosmetics, perfumery and personal hygiene products.- Research and application of nanostructures with bioantioxidative and structure-

organizing properties as components that significantly improve consumer properties of

cosmetic and perfumery products.

- Protection of gentle components of such products and prolongation of their shelf

life.

- Creation of brand new cosmetic and perfumery products and personal hygieneproducts with health-improving properties.

C60 Nanostructures for pharmacology.

- Development of medicinal forms of hydrated fullerenes for parenteral, oral, intranasal

and other ways of administration.

- Efficiency enhancement of existing pharmaceuticals due to incorporation of hydrated

fullerenes into their composition.

- Development and creation of new vaccines and serums with decreased allergenic and

side effects.


C60 Nanostructures for food.


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- Research and application of nanostructures with bio-antioxidative and structure-

organizing properties as components that significantly improve consumer properties of

food.

- Protection of gentle components of food products and prolongation of their shelf life.

- Substitution by hydrated fullerenes ofhazardous conserving agents and stabilizers for

food products.

C50 Nanostructures for agriculture.

- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes in agriculture for accelerated

germination and growing of plants.

- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes for enhanced plant resistance to

disease-producing agents.

C60 Nanostructures in veterinary medicine.

- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes for prevention ofanimal diseases,including viral ones.

- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes to enhance reproductive qualities,

viability and quality of life of elite animals.

- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes for animals in sports.



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Basic Biological research of C60 nanostructures.

- Toxicological research of nano-materials.- Development ofbiocompatible materials on the basis of nano-structural composites.

- Research of biochemical reactions and biological processes in heterogeneous water

media, structured by hydrated fullerenes.

- Research of the biological role of cluster water structures.

- Research of the influence of specific cluster organization of water on increasing of

biological system stability against unfavourable environmental factors, including action ofdifferent electromagnetic fields and ionizing radiation.

- Research of the use of nano-particle solutions as components ofnutrient medium for

microorganisms growth, producers of specific antibiotics, vitamins, proteins, etc.; and as

components ofbiological test-systems for biomedical analyses.

- Research of the use perspectives of hydrated fullerenes for preservation, including

cryoconservation, of different biological material (biomolecules, cells, blood and itscomponents, organs and tissues).

- Research of the influence of hydrated fullerenes on the processes of aging and their

ability to slow down such kinds of processes.



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Common sources of technology


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gy

foresight errors and miscalculations

The early hype error. In the short term, marketers, promoters and eagerinventors seem to overestimate the impacts of any new technology and in the longterm underestimate such impacts and consequences (see the Gartner Hype curve)

The replacement hype error- the belief that new technology will replace theexisting incumbent technology & that this will happen relatively fast. In realitycompeting technologies often coexist over a long period of time (i.e. Radio & TV)

The enhancement error- The belief that new technology will only solve oldproblems & supplement existing technological systems. Instead new technologies,especially platform or core technologies often lay the groundwork for entirely newsystems and new resulting systemic problems. (ie the electric motor for therailway, the car for the roadway infrastructure, the PC for the Internet, nanotech &

biotech for our bodies "intra-structure" (the Human Genome project and HapMap,and SNP's ), the impacts of which we do not fully understand yet.



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Source: http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1447613




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gy


The panacea error-The mistaken belief that new technology willfunction as a panacea for various social problems

The patterning and sense-making error- The difficulty of seeingnew important links between seemingly unrelated and differentfields of technology, especially in cases where this novelcombination of fields is precisely what will offer major accelerateddevelopment opportunities

The social impacts error- Often people who have tried to predictthe future have become bogged down in the actual technology andneglected the economic and social aspects.




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gy


The prisoners of our times error- That without realizing it, people tend to beprisoners of the spirit of their times ( Zeitgeist), erroneously believing that the bigissues of today will also be the big issues of tomorrow

The decision criteria error- The belief that only rational economic considerationsare the only factors behind that choice of one technology over another. However,

for many people, seemingly irrational considerations determine such choices

The information gap error- The information on which science and technology(S&T) foresight studies are based on is often insufficient. Technology developmentis not linear, transparent or fully predictable, with surprise developments comingout of left field such as the secret work that is done in the military or a new startupworking in stealth mode before it goes public with a breakthrough.

(We have a list of over 100 thinking errors or cognitive biases in the OpportunityClinic Workshop)



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The End Part 2



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New Emerging Business Opportunities;

What makes us rich?Part 3-Designing WinningBusiness Models

By

Walter Derzko

Smart Economy

Toronto



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Companies that arent able to

systematically rejuvenate their

business model will struggle tosurvive and thrive

Source: http://www.alexosterwalder.com/


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Over 15 definitions in the


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academic literature



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Business model innovation matters and it isa top priority of CEOs


Operating Margin Growth in Excess of


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Competitive Peers

compound annual growth rate over five years

[Source: IBM, CEOs are expanding the innovation horizon: important implications for CIOs]

Benefits Cited by Business Model Innovators


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percent of respondents

[Source: IBM, Global CEO Study 2006]


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Source: http://www.alexosterwalder.com/


Definition


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Definition

A business model describes

the rationale of how an

organization creates, delivers,

and captures value


The Business Model Canvas


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Finance

ClientsInfrastructure Offer

The business model describes

the rationale of how an

organization creates, deliversand captures value

The canvas elaborates the

business model through nine

basic building blocks that cover

the four main areas of a

business: clients, offer,

infrastructure, and financial

viability.

The business model is a blueprint for a

strategy to be implemented through

organizational structures, processes,

and systems Source: http://www.alexosterwalder.com/

The Nine Building Blocks of the Osterwalder Business Model


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Clients

Client Segments

An organization serves one or several client segments

Channels

Value propositions are delivered to clients through

communication, distribution, and sales channels

Customer/Client Relationships

Client relationships are established and maintained with

each customer segment

Value Propositions

Solve client problems and satisfy client needs with value

propositions


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INFRASTRUCTURE

Key Resources

Key resources required to offer and deliver the value propositions ...

Key Activities

by performing a number of key activities

Key Partnerships

Key partnerships are formed to acquire some resources and perform some

activities

Financial Viability

Revenue Streams

Revenue streams result from value propositions offered toclients

Cost Structure

All the infrastructure elements result in costs



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Acquisitions Business ModelBusiness Innovations and To-be Model

Version 5 July 10 , 2009


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1. Present the Acquisitions as-is business model

2. Elaborate the proposed innovations

3. Present the Acquisitions to-be business model

For the innovations to the business model:

The challenges

The proposed actions

The benefits

The changes to the business modelFor the business model:

Description of the canvas and the components of

the business model (in the annex)

Objectives

Information provided


Procurement As-isSERVICES RELATIONSHIPS CLIENTSKEY

RESOURCESKEY

PARTNER


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CHANNELS

REVENUE STREAMSCOST CENTRES

RESOURCESPARTNER

KEYACTIVITIES

Suppliers- goods & services

OGDs- own authority- delegated authority

Treasury Board

IT Service Branch

Staff

Instruments

IT tools

CommodityClassification

Authorities

Data

Staff

Inter-departmental

committeesAccount executives

Events

1-800 service

Government ofCanada

OGDsOthergovernments

SMEs

AcquisitionsStewardship

Contracting- Specialized- Complex- Standard- Custom- Common- Unique- Low-dollar value- Routine

Commodity

Expert Services

Create & administer contracts &instruments

Advise clients

Analyse data and trends

Marketing & communications

Training

Vendor registration

Operations staff

Phone, fax, e-mail

IT tools and web sites

Electronic interfaces

E-tenderingCanadian Commercial Corp.

Appropriations

Fees

Salary and O&M

IT transfer

IT maintenance & development

CHALLENGESSERVICES RELATIONSHIPS CLIENTSKEY

RESOURCESKEY

PARTNER


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Commodity

Expert Services

CHANNELS


RESOURCESPARTNER

KEYACTIVITIES

o Standardize our terminology to

describe procuremento Re-balance workload, with

clients taking responsibility forroutine procurement

o Support clients that lackcapacity or capability to doroutine procurement

o Emphasize PWGSCs increased

focus on value added, complexprocurement

INNOVATIONSSERVICES RELATIONSHIPS CLIENTSKEY

RESOURCESKEY

PARTNER


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Focus Contractingservice on addedvalue service

- Enterprise- Complex- Standard

Implementclassification ofprocurement basedon Dynamic BaselineModel

Create a client-procurement supportservice bundle

- Commodity

management- Routine procurement

Align delegatedauthorities with clientcapability

Clients haveresponsibility forroutineprocurement

Full cost recovery forroutine procurementsupport service

CHANNELS


RESOURCESPARTNER

KEYACTIVITIES

BENEFITSSERVICES RELATIONSHIPS CLIENTSKEY

RESOURCESKEY

PARTNER


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Focus Contractingservice on addedvalue service

- Enterprise- Complex- Standard

Implementclassification ofprocurement basedon Dynamic BaselineModel

Create a client-procurement supportservice bundle

- Commodity

management- Routine procurement

Align delegatedauthorities with clientcapability

Clients haveresponsibility forroutineprocurement

Full cost recovery forroutine procurementsupport service

CHANNELS


RESOURCESPARTNER

KEYACTIVITIES

o A common reference forprocurement across the GC

o Client focus is on lower dollar androutine procurements, where timeto delivery is important

o PWGSC focus is on highercomplexity and risk, where weprovide key added value

o For clients who do not havecapacity for routine procurement, asupport service will be in place

o Full cost recovery for work we dounder the routine procurementsupport service.

Procurement To-beSERVICES RELATIONSHIPS CLIENTSKEY

RESOURCESKEY

PARTNER


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Contracting- Enterprise

- Complex

- Standard

Procurement support- Commodity management

- Routine procurement

Expert services

Staff

Instruments

IT toolsExpandeddelegation ofauthority

Data standards &reporting


GC depts &Agencies- Routine procurement

Treasury Board

IT Service Branch


CHANNELS


RESOURCESPARTNER

KEYACTIVITIES

Appropriations

Fees

Routine procurement

Procurement As-isSERVICES RELATIONSHIPS CLIENTSKEY

RESOURCESKEY

PARTNER


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CHANNELS


RESOURCESPARTNER

KEY

ACTIVITIES


OGDs- own authority- delegated authority

Treasury Board

IT Service Branch

Staff

Instruments

IT tools


Authorities

Data

Staff

Inter-departmental

committeesAccount executives

Events

1-800 service

Government ofCanada

OGDsOthergovernments

SMEs



Commodity

Expert Services


Advise clients



Training

Vendor registration

Operations staff

Phone, fax, e-mail

IT tools and web sites

Electronic interfaces

E-tenderingCanadian Commercial Corp.

Appropriations

Fees

Salary and O&M

IT transfer


Procurement To-beSERVICES RELATIONSHIPS CLIENTSKEY

RESOURCESKEY

PARTNER


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Contracting- Enterprise

- Complex

- Standard

Procurement support- Commodity management

- Routine procurement

Expert services


GC depts &Agencies- Routine procurement

Treasury Board

IT Service Branch


Government ofCanada

GC Depts &Agencies

Othergovernments

SMEs

Staff

Inter-departmentalcommittees

Account executivesEvents

Support centres

Bi-Annual Conference

Communities ofPractice


Advise clients



Training

Vendor registration

Information sharing (communities)

Operations staff

Phone, fax, e-mail

Acquisitions portal

E-bidding

Canadian Commercial Corp.

Appropriations

Fees

Routine procurement

Salary and O&M

IT transfer


Support centres

CHANNELS


RESOURCESPARTNER

KEY

ACTIVITIES

Staff

Optimizedinstruments andIT tools

Expandeddelegation ofauthority

Data standards &reporting

Shortcomings?


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Shortcomings?

Business Model Canvas doesnt elicit whichstrategic decisions need to be made about the

business

Business Model Canvas doesnt account forindustry dynamics

Does not deal with risk and uncertainty



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Hierarchy of Business Model Domain

P i


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Perspectives


Hierarchy of Business Model DomainPerspectives


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Perspectives


Strategic business decisionsin each domain


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in each domain


Strategic business decisionsin each domain


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in each domain


Industry Systems Dynamics


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y y y


Source: Doug Reid, SFI OCAD 2010

Industry Systems Dynamics


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y y y



Mapping


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Mapping

Industry

SystemDynamics


Source: Doug Reid,

SFI OCAD 2010

System Dynamics Simulations


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Source: Doug Reid, SFI

OCAD 2010

Simulations and Policy Decisions


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y



Eight generic approaches to

C ti it & I ti


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Creativity & Innovation

Accident, chance, serendipity> too random Analysis, number-crunching >incremental improvements

Brainstorming or Think out of the box >No structure> low hitrate for radical ideas- 4.5%

Games & Puzzles > Warm-up; Practice but not practical Mentors, hang around creative people > random

Linear, step-by-step formula approach >easy for trainers toteach, but not the way the brain works

Direct deliberate teaching & use of thinking (cognitive) skillsjust like we teach +, -, x. /, in math > most efficient & effective

Parallel Thinking approach i.e. Six Hats

Creative/Cognitive Thinking skills for

design


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design

Real life examples

Designing a new tennis racket

Designing a new concept for a plate

Designing an new health care business model


Example of Concept Challenge

C d J&J M N l L b G l h


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Case study: J&J-McNeal Labs; Guelph

What do we take

for granted?

Provocation

Stepping Stone

Opportunity Idea

Concept or Solution

People do

not pay

attention to

expiry dates

onmedication

Escape

Bottle pays

Attention

Label Changes

color

Bottle Changes

color

Need for QC?



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p p g

What do we take

for granted?

Provocation

Stepping Stone

Opportunity Idea

Concept or Solution

People do

not pay

attention to

expiry dates

onmedication

Reversal

Expiry date pays

attention to people

Color-coded

Exp Date

Industry Wide

Std

SensorsSmart Meds

Cabinet



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p p g

What do we take

for granted?

Provocation

Stepping Stone

Opportunity Idea

Concept or Solution

People do

not pay

attention to

expiry dates

onmedication

Distortion

People encouraged

to pay attention

to exp dates

Contest

DisposalSend in/drop off

win



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p p g

What do we take

for granted?

Provocation

Stepping Stone

Opportunity Idea

Concept or Solution

People do

not pay

attention to

expiry dates

onmedication

Exaggeration

Exp date size of

city hall clock

Phone Alert

Reminder Service

Package

Beeps

New Promotion

vehicle?

noticeable



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What do we take

for granted?

Provocation

Stepping Stone

Opportunity Idea

Concept or Solution

People do

not pay

attention to

expiry dates

onmedication

Wishful thinking

Wouldnt it be nice

if meds pay attentionto own exp dates

Meds change

Color at 60%

potency

Meds

self-destruct

Classic Strategy and Unknowns


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Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * 416-819-9667

Strategy is about making decision, choices Classic decision theory (French 1988)

distinguishes between 3 sets of conditions

Decision-making under certaintyDecision-making under risk

Decision-making under uncertainty

Many people incorrectly use the 2 terms (risk& uncertainty) interchangeably

Classic Strategy and Unknowns


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Classic decision theory (French 1988) distinguishes

between 3 sets of conditionsDecision-making under certaintyDecision-making under riskDecision-making under uncertainty

Decision-making under deep/severe uncertainty Decision-making under ambiguity Decision-making under equivocality Decision-making under complexity

Decision-making under dichotomy Decision-making under anomaly, contradiction orparadox

Decision-making under info glut


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AmbiguityEquivocality Uncertainty

Complexity

No

definition

Multiple

Definitions

One definition,

with some

confidence or

predictability

One definition,

With certainty

But with many

Related elements

Information /Knowledge Matrix

from the Opportunity Clinic


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from the Opportunity Clinic

Lack of..

Variety of../

Diversity of

Information Knowledge

Uncertainty Ambiguity

Complexity Equivocality

Acquire

Restrict

Analysis Interpretation


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Unknowns?

Uncertainty?

Ambiguity?

Dichotomy?

Complexity?

Contradiction.

Anomaly or Paradox?

Equivocality?

Info glut?

Sense-making Framework


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Knowledge ProblemIndetermination

Strategy/tactics/Cognitive skills toaddress problem

Tools methods toaddress problem

1.0 Ambiguity

( lack of any framework),

No Definitions

1.0 Interpret, Classify,Clarify; assemble

diverse expert networks;face-2-face; asking theright questions, keyissues ? keyuncertainties? divergentfollowed by convergent

thinking, lateral thinking;

re-frame, enact,hypothesize, test

1.0

2x2 matrix or multi

scenario building,contradiction maps,create novel frameworks,system dynamicsmodeling, tech road-maps, 6 thinking hats,viable systems modelingVSM,

Sense-making Framework


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Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-

819-9667

Knowledge ProblemIndetermination

Strategy/tactics/Cognitive skills toaddress problem

Tools methods toaddress problem

2.0 Uncertainty ( lack ofdata or even which

questions to ask to findthe information), OneDefinition with somecertainty or predictability

2.0 Interpret, Classify,Certify, Verify:

assemble broad flexiblenetworks, face-2-face,asking right questions,convergent thinking,lateral thinking; get info;infer, assume or

predict, be flexible,buffer from critics

2.0 gap analysis ,technology road-maps.

generic technologyevolution maps, DSS,DBMS, tagging,folksonomies,taskonomy

Real Applications?


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Starting and Managing a Business in Challenging

Economic Times

by Walter Derzko

The following five one to two day-long sessions

are based on over 25 years of research from the

Opportunity Clinic and the book Opportunity-45 scenarios to drive your business in

challenging times by Walter Derzko


Session 1-Dealing with Unknowns & Risks in your BusinessParticipants will explore and learn how to deal with the seven

common types of unknowns facing every business (uncertainty,


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yp g y ( y

ambiguity, equivocality, complexity, dichotomy, anomaly/paradox

and infoglut) and explore strategies and tactics with coping anddealing with each. Each participant will also map the 6 types of

changes that exist in the external business environment and the

likely effect on their business success.

Session 2-Opportunity Recognition and spotting, discovering or

designing emerging Opportunity Windows

Challenging economic time and turbulence present both

challenges/threats and unique one-in-a-life time opportunities for

each business. This session will explore common opportunityscenarios that we can expect to see in the next one to three year

and how the seize the resulting opportunity windows and lessen

the possible threats of each


Session 3-Business Model makeover

Business owners will learn how to evaluate their existing business

models and fine tune and adapt them to changing threats and


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models and fine tune and adapt them to changing threats and

opportunities discovered in session one and two

Session 4-Anticipatory Management

Participants will explore 8 remote but possible wild card scenarios that

could either wreck or rocket their business forward, depending on your

mindset, anticipatory management prowess and preparatory skills

Session 5 Creating a Business Playbook for challenging economic times

Business owners will create their own flexible and customized Playbook

of business strategic decisions, strategies and tactics based on the

output of the first four sessions-risks and uncertainties, changes and

business drivers, threats and opportunities, and wildcard mitigation

tactics

Recap


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2) What one/two items/ideas can I apply in my

business / workplace today?


4) What item/idea do I find interesting and would like

more information on?


The End-Part 3 of 3


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Thank you for your attention Happy to answer any questions

Visit the Smart Economy bloghttp://www.smarteconomy.typepad.com

Watch for the upcoming books onOpportunities and smart technologies .

Follow-ups; call Walter Derzko at 416-819-9667 or email

[email protected] [email protected]
http://www.smarteconomy.typepad.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.smarteconomy.typepad.com/

Documents

South Korea Oct 2010 Walter Derzko V3