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Southeast Asian Economic Outlook 2010:
Kiichiro Fukasaku OECD Development Centre
DeFine Annual Meeting Paris, 10-12 October 2010
Southeast Asian Economic Outlook An overview of SAEO 2010
•Near-term macroeconomic prospects
•Medium-term growth projections
•Regional Integration Landscape
2
Part I: Regional Economic Monitor
•Transport Infrastructure and Regional Integration
Part II: Thematic
Focus
Key Messages from SAEO 2010 (Transport Infrastructure and Regional Integration)
3
• Transport infrastructure development is central to promoting ASEAN integration and reducing gaps among and within its member countries.
• Indonesia’s transport infrastructure is less developed than that of other middle-income ASEAN members but a number of steps are being taken to improve the situation.
• New financing method can promote private infrastructure investment in Southeast Asia (> PPP/revenue bonds in Thailand)
AFTA >>> AEC
East Asia FTA (ASEAN+3)
CEPEA
(ASEAN+6)
Trans-Pacific Strategic EPA
(TPP/ P4)
ASEAN-EU FTA
Regional Integration Landscape ASEAN with Important Partners
4
2010 - 2015
Closer Integration in ASEAN and East Asia
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1993 1998 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Progress in Tariffs Reduction (Average tariff rate under AFTA, %)
Source: SAEO 2010
Share of Intra-regional Trade (Percentage of total trade)
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1990 1995 2000 2005 2009
ASEAN ASEAN+3 ASEAN+6
FDI Inflows in ASEAN, China and India (USD Billion)
Source: SAEO 2010 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
China India ASEAN-10
Trade in ASEAN Priority Sectors (USD Billion, 2006-2008 Average)
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
EX (blue) IM (red) Source: SAEO 2010
ASEAN-6* China
•IDN, MYS, PHL, SGP, THA , VNM (2006-7 av.) 7
Turning the Region’s Diversity into Opportunities
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0
Viet Nam
The Philippines
Thailand
Singapore
Myanmar
Malaysia
Lao PDR
Indonesia
Cambodia
Brunei Darussalam
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Viet Nam
The Philippines
Thailand
Singapore
Myanmar
Malaysia
Lao PDR
Indonesia
Cambodia
Brunei Darussalam
GDP per capita in 2009 (e) (US $ PPP)
Population in 2009 (p) (Million)
Sources: ASEAN Secretariat; IMF; (p) Preliminary; (e) Estimates
8
ADB Projections for 2010-2020 (a)
* In 2008 USD; (a) Energy, transport, telecom, water and sanitation; Source: ADBI (2010)
Country Estimated Investment Needs (USD Billion)*
Total Investment per Capita (USD)*
Cambodia 13 918
Indonesia 450 1,981
Laos 11 1,833
Malaysia 188 6,962
Myanmar 22 438
Philippines 127 1,407
Thailand 173 2,566
Viet Nam 110 1,273
ASEAN (8) 1,095 2,172
China 4,368 3,297
India 2,173 1,906
9
Asian Highway Network Private Investment
in National Transport Projects (USD Million)
Source: SAEO 2010 based on UNESCAP (Jan 2010) Source: World Bank
10
2000-04 Average
2005-08 Average
Indonesia 32 378
Malaysia 735 492
Philippines 189 133
Thailand 188 0
Viet Nam 4 191
ASEAN economies have emerged strongly from the global crisis, but development is likely to be uneven across countries and sectors, unless necessary measures are taken:
Foster regional and sub-regional connectivity through infrastructure development (> transport infrastructure);
Support new growth areas in ASEAN priority sectors;
Institute a credible medium-term fiscal framework to support rebalancing growth
Conclusions
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