Space Weather and Manned SpaceflightSpace Weather and Manned Spaceflight

28 April 201028 April 2010

11Neal ZappNeal Zapp

22A.S. Johnson, A.S. Johnson, 11K. Lee, K. Lee, 22T. Bevill, T. Bevill, 22Dan Fry, Dan Fry, 22Nic Stoffle, Nic Stoffle, 22Audrey Dunegan, Audrey Dunegan, 22Janet Barzilla,Janet Barzilla, 2 2Joel Joel Flanders, Flanders, 22Eliseo Gonzalez,Eliseo Gonzalez, 2 2T. Lin, T. Lin, 33R. Gaza, R. Gaza, 33D. Zhou, D. Zhou, 33Yvonne Roed Yvonne Roed 22Clif Amberboy, Clif Amberboy, 22Lollie Lopez.Lollie Lopez.

11NASA Johnson Space Center, SF2, Houston, TX 77058 U.S.A.NASA Johnson Space Center, SF2, Houston, TX 77058 U.S.A.22Lockheed-Martin Space Operations, Houston, TX 77258 U.S.A.Lockheed-Martin Space Operations, Houston, TX 77258 U.S.A.

33Universities Space Research Association, Houston, TX 77058 U.S.A.Universities Space Research Association, Houston, TX 77058 U.S.A.

OVERVIEWOVERVIEW

Operational space radiation protectionOperational space radiation protection What’s a SRAG?What’s a SRAG? Crewed space operationsCrewed space operations

Shift in directionShift in direction Crewed explorationCrewed exploration Tech. DevelopmentTech. Development MarsMars

Primary needs & workPrimary needs & work Validation and verificationValidation and verification Solar ForecastingSolar Forecasting MeasurementsMeasurements Unification of NASA voiceUnification of NASA voice

ExposureExposure ReferenceReference

SRAGSRAG

Est. 1962, Continuous manned program supportEst. 1962, Continuous manned program support Mercury: Mercury: console, dosimetryconsole, dosimetry

Gemini: Gemini: console, dosimetryconsole, dosimetry

Apollo: Apollo: console, dosimetryconsole, dosimetry

Apollo-Soyuz: Apollo-Soyuz: console, dosimetryconsole, dosimetry

Skylab: Skylab: console, dosimetry, equipment design (film vault)console, dosimetry, equipment design (film vault)

Shuttle: Shuttle: consoleconsole, , dosimetry dosimetry

NASA-Mir: NASA-Mir: console, dosimetryconsole, dosimetry

ISS: ISS: console, dosimetry, equipment designconsole, dosimetry, equipment design

Constellation:Constellation: Orion system managerOrion system manager GFE hardware provider GFE hardware provider Operations Operations (console, dosimetry)(console, dosimetry)

Physicists, Health Physicists, Engineers, Programmers, I/T ProfessionalsPhysicists, Health Physicists, Engineers, Programmers, I/T Professionals (4 FTE, 20 WYE – 3 USRA)(4 FTE, 20 WYE – 3 USRA) FacilitiesFacilities

MPSR – SRAG ConsoleMPSR – SRAG Console SRDL – Dosimetry lab, flight hardware controlled storage, wet labSRDL – Dosimetry lab, flight hardware controlled storage, wet lab ROSA – MPSR backup/mult.vehicle support, training, server roomROSA – MPSR backup/mult.vehicle support, training, server room Cesium photon source – Calibration/characterizationCesium photon source – Calibration/characterization 44

Operational ConcernsOperational Concerns

Crew health and performanceCrew health and performance Direct – exposureDirect – exposure Indirect – vehicle/suit systemsIndirect – vehicle/suit systems

Nominal exposures significantly greater than Nominal exposures significantly greater than terrestrial rad-workers or air crewsterrestrial rad-workers or air crews

RisksRisks Loss of missionLoss of mission Protracted loss of crew (REID)Protracted loss of crew (REID)

• Risk management / mitigation

• Time, Distance, Shielding

• Planning/Re-planning

• Manipulation of local shielding

• Primary Limitations• Solar forecasting• Environmental dynamics

Surgeon/BME

Flight Director

MPSR

MCCISPX ServersTelemetered

ISS Data

Operational Displaysand Tools

SWPC

Outside Data

• Notification of SEPs for hardware concerns • Time intervals of SEP

exposure risk • Maintain status of mission exposure trends• Evaluate EVAs for Exposures (ALARA)• During Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEPs) Advise Surgeon on Magnitude of events Time intervals of SEP Exposure Risk Recommendations regarding Crew Shelter• Training for SRAG Operations and Hardware

AFTAC

Crew• ASCAN Training• Flight Hardware Training

Console InterfacesConsole Interfaces ISSISS

• Artificial Event Detection and Notification

Alerting

InternationalPartners• Data sharing• Alerting• Coordinated contingency response

Telemetry

66

SPACE RADIATION ANALYSIS GROUP

SRD Lab Workload in 2008Mission Launch Date Total Number

of OSL/TL/CR-39

STS-122 02/07/2008 336

STS-123 03/11/2008 336

STS-124 05/31/2008 336

STS-126 11/14/2008 380

ISS Expd 16/1E 02/07/2008 48

ISS Expd 16-17/1JA

03/11/2008 576

ISS Expd 17/1J 05/31/2008 48

ISS Expd 18/17S 10/12/2008 83

ISS Expd 18/ULF2 11/14/2008 788

Matroshka , Space Icchiban, DOSIS, Accelerator Calibrations 200-300 detectors per year

TOTAL 3000+100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

May

08

Aug 07

Sep 0

6

Mar

06

Oct 0

5

Apr 05

Oct 0

4

Oct 0

3

Apr 04

Nov 02

Jun 0

2

Apr 02

Dec 0

1

Aug 01

Jul 0

1

Apr 01

Dec 0

0

Do

se R

ate

ISS

20

00

-20

08

(G

y/d

ay)

SM LAB Airlock

Launch Date

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

CHeCS NOD2OP2

NOD2S5

COL_EDRCOL_EPM

LAB1_D3

LAB1_PD2

LAB1_OS0LAB1_OS6

SM-P242

SM-P442

SM-W14

SM-P307

A/L1 AD3

A/L1 OF3

TESSSM-P339

SM-P327

NOD1S1_02

NOD1OP2

OS

L/T

L D

ose

Ra

te

Gy/

da

y)

ISS RAM Locations

ISS 15/13A.1 (08/08/07-03/26/08); ISS 16-17/1J/A (03/11/08-11/30/08)

NOD1P4_03

SRAG Operational Radiation SRAG Operational Radiation MeasurementsMeasurements

77

Analysis MethodsAnalysis Methods

• Configuration-managed, industry-standard sector analysis modules• Production tools derived from HRP Pro-Engineer-based products• Rapid, precise evaluation of large structures/assemblies• Systems engineering – performance does NOT dictate mass

88

LEO Means PhasingLEO Means Phasing

ExplorationExploration

Cumulative Dose - January 20th, 2005 SPE

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

6:14 8:38 11:02 13:26 15:50 18:14 20:38 23:02

GMT Time (January 20th, 2005)

Cu

mu

lati

ve D

ose (

mG

y-E

q)

ISS

Free Space

““Holes”, ConcernsHoles”, Concerns

???? ???? ????

STS-116 Launch EVA 1 IngressEVA 2 Egress

ForecastingForecasting

SRAGs “Holes”, ConcernsSRAGs “Holes”, Concerns

SEP forecastingSEP forecasting OnsetOnset Peak (by energy)Peak (by energy) Evolution/Temporal ProfileEvolution/Temporal Profile

SEP forecastingSEP forecasting OnsetOnset Peak (by energy)Peak (by energy) Evolution/Temporal ProfileEvolution/Temporal Profile

X-Ray flares: correlations

CMEs : exacerbation, potential lunar EVA impact

Magnetic Storms : exacerbation

Type “N” emission signatures : correlations

10 cm burst: correlations

Team inexperienceTeam inexperience

SEP forecastingSEP forecasting OnsetOnset Peak (by energy)Peak (by energy) Evolution/Temporal ProfileEvolution/Temporal Profile

SPE ForecastingSPE Forecasting NWRA / GMU CollaborationNWRA / GMU Collaboration All-Clear WorkshopAll-Clear Workshop MSFC CollaborationMSFC Collaboration InnocentiveInnocentive

Look for multi-disciplinary approachLook for multi-disciplinary approach Challenge submitted and ran for 60 days.Challenge submitted and ran for 60 days. 579 potential solvers looked at problem579 potential solvers looked at problem Focused on active regionsFocused on active regions

SPE Dose ProjectionSPE Dose Projection UTENN collaborationUTENN collaboration Neural Network analysisNeural Network analysis

SPE Spectral AnalysisSPE Spectral Analysis NRL collaborationNRL collaboration Generation of spectral fits from 10 MeV to 1 Generation of spectral fits from 10 MeV to 1

GeVGeV Higher fidelity dose estimationHigher fidelity dose estimation Transition to real-time operationsTransition to real-time operations

(D. Falconer, et al.)

(M. Georgoulis)

(Townsend et al.)

In-House AnalysisIn-House Analysis

Expand Expand Leverage information technology Leverage information technology

resourcesresources Database structure for ease of data Database structure for ease of data

retrievalretrieval Combine with robust numerical Combine with robust numerical

techniquestechniques Time-dependent spectral fitting – Time-dependent spectral fitting –

spectral hardening / softeningspectral hardening / softening Realistic vehicle geometry modelsRealistic vehicle geometry models Realistic human modelsRealistic human models Radiation transportRadiation transport

Robust Historical Analysis Robust Historical Analysis (1967 – present)(1967 – present) Distribution of spectral characterDistribution of spectral character Distribution of SPE doseDistribution of SPE dose Time dependent dose for mission Time dependent dose for mission

planningplanning

All-Clear WorkshopAll-Clear Workshop

LWS TR&TLWS TR&T Collaborative effortCollaborative effort

SRAGSRAG SWPCSWPC CoRACoRA CIRESCIRES

Lays a foundationLays a foundation NeedsNeeds Performance metricsPerformance metrics Initial developer feedbackInitial developer feedback

Shows a focusShows a focus Measurements (details)Measurements (details) Community approachCommunity approach Spans power grids to space explorationSpans power grids to space exploration

Future Space Weather Ops

Ensure Data Availability

Develop Forecasting Capability

All-Clear Forecasting Workshop

Subcontract Predictive Tool Development

Assess current state of forecasting models and

input data needs.Data Stream Development

Data Requirements

SOMD/SMD/OCE Involvement

(REM)

Two-Fold ConsiderationTwo-Fold Consideration

1616

Scientific DescriptionScientific Description

Operational DescriptionOperational Description

• Important differences• Don’t need to be an expert on any particular model to interpret indicators• Ops description is robust in architecture, redundant in function, and is

documented, validated, and verified according to customer requirements• No “cool” points• In-mission is the wrong time to learn something new

EnsemblesEnsembles

UnifiedUnified AgencyAgency EffortEffort

Space Weather Working GroupSpace Weather Working Group Foster cross-directorate communication on space weather issuesFoster cross-directorate communication on space weather issues Unify agency-wide space weather needsUnify agency-wide space weather needs Leverage agency resourcesLeverage agency resources Extra-agency collaboration/communicationExtra-agency collaboration/communication

Working Group(OCE / OCHMO)Working Group

(OCE / OCHMO)

Space Operations

Space Operations

ExplorationExploration

ScienceScience Agency CentersAgency Centers

Crew Health and Safety Impact

Crew Health and Safety Impact

Hardware ImpactHardware Impact

Observational Data Needs

Observational Data Needs

Risk MitigationRisk Mitigation

Technical AuthoritiesTechnical Authorities

AeronauticsAeronautics

Support Infrastructure

Support Infrastructure

Requirements CoordinationRequirements Coordination

External ResearchExternal

Research

““Take Homes”Take Homes” Scientific significanceScientific significance somewhat different than somewhat different than ops utilityops utility

Flares Flares andand CMEs CMEs vs.vs. ESPEs ESPEs

Model Model validationvalidation and and verificationverification is is necessarynecessary for implementation for implementation as operational tools. as operational tools. NotNot achievable as an achievable as an ad-hocad-hoc process. process.

VERYVERY exciting times – emergence of real forecasting ability exciting times – emergence of real forecasting ability Relatively strong (but not exclusive) focus on magnetic observations of Relatively strong (but not exclusive) focus on magnetic observations of

active regionsactive regions

Models Models largely dependent on largely dependent on current/archive datacurrent/archive data Model development CANNOT be de-coupled from asset viabilityModel development CANNOT be de-coupled from asset viability

Single-focus efforts are Single-focus efforts are notnot attractive. attractive. CollaborativeCollaborative efforts efforts containing both “containing both “developerdeveloper” and “” and “useruser” involvement are critical to ” involvement are critical to any meaningful success.any meaningful success.

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. of the end.

But it is, perhaps the end of the beginning.But it is, perhaps the end of the beginning.

- Winston Churchill- Winston Churchill

srag.jsc.nasa.gov

Contact InformationContact Information