Specht frid1220

Extreme Natural Events and their effect on the coastal zone

is it all our fault?

Alison Specht and Brett Stubbs

Southern Cross University

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the work

• a review of Extreme Natural Events (ENEs) in the central east coast of Australia

• a case study of a damaging ENE

• the perceptions of the tourism industry about ENEs, the support received and their preparedness.

• [www.crctourism.com.au/CRCBookshop/Documents/70092Specht_ExtNatEvents_WEB.pdf]

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this talk

• ENEs - the major ones in this region

• a case study - lessons to be learnt

• from susceptibility to resilience

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this talk

• ENEs - the major ones in this region



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what are the major ENEs

• how to find out?

– written reporting…• were the events reported?

• can we get the records?

– reporting depends on people: i. were there some people there to notice, and

ii. was the event damaging enough to warrant reporting?

– has sufficient time elapsed given the duration of reporting to discern trends…

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that being so…

• existing reports:

– e.g. Chapman et al. (1982), Granger & Hayne (2000), the Macquarie Book of Events, web sites (BOM, EMA), etc.

– corroborated by original records

– if couldn’t get corroboration (and this was not infrequent), then left event out

• newspapers of the time

• lots of sloppy reporting discovered

• still not exhaustive

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-> a list of events (118 to March 06)

25January

1951

NE NSW, SEQld

Cyclonic conditions with heavy seas and torrentialrain swept through the northern NSW area.Flooding resulted in Lismore with 500 peopleevacuating their homes. The most newsworthy wasthe effect on holidaymakers, who were washed andblown out of tents at the various beach resorts and,because of floodwater, were unable to return home.The Pacific Highway was blocked at Tyagarah,Giant waves swept sand from around the surfclubhouse at Brunswick Heads and at Byron waveswere breaking right into the Clubhouse there. Thewaves altered the course of the Brunswick River.Heavy rains in the SE Qld area resulted in low levelflooding and evacuations in the Sunshine Coastarea, with one life lost at Currumundi Lake, nearCaloundra.

Northern Star 27January 1951, p. 4;Northern Star 29January 1951, p. 4;Granger & Hayne(2000) A. 21.

14 June1952

NE NSW Violent weather lashed eastern NSW on the 14th and15th June, considerable damage reported aroundSydney and the south coast. There were heavy rainsin the Clarence with minor flooding and strongwinds on the north coast. A Ôcyclonic galeÕ resultingin huge seas destroyed all but two of the seventeenboats moored at the Byron jetty. Fishermen estimatethe loss in boats and equipment at £30,000. Thefishing industry was effectively eradicated in onenight. Blame was placed on inadequate weatherwarnings, which mainly come from Sydney. Asmost of the ÔweatherÕ in northern New South Walesis allied to Queensland, warnings from Brisbanewere claimed to be more appropriate, as warningsfrom Sydney were inaccurate and too late to be ofuse.

Daily Examiner, 16June 1952, p.1 & 3;Northern Star, 16June 1952, p. 4;Daily Examiner, 17June 1952, p.1; MBE(1983) p. 575.

the ENEs considered: cyclones, floods,

extreme electrical & wind storms

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some stats• cyclones

– 51 over last 116 years

– average of 4.4 per decade (compared with 12.8 per decade in Cairns)

– neither increase nor decrease, major periods of absence apparent.

• floods

– 87 over 167 years

– average of 1 every 2 years

– neither increase nor decrease: few during the early 1900s

• extreme storms (reported)

– 101 between 1952 and 2006

– 1 every year

– increasing? or is this a reporting phenomenon.

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this talk

• ENEs - the major ones in this region - how might they change in the future?



a severe storm on 26.10.2003

common in the region in this season

(max 100 km hr-1)

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just a little storm… ($20 mil)

• blackout in 3,300 homes on the Sunshine Coast,

• tree, powerline, and roof damage widespread, 90 homes damaged in Samford-Mt Nebo area,

• hail destroying sheds, crops, netting between Stanthorpe and Warwick, costs estimated at $1 million,

• 400 homes at the Gold Coast damaged, Indy car race stopped at 14 laps, SES called to 772 homes, Qantas jet written off,

• 100 animals killed at Currumbin bird sanctuary alone, including rare species. 14 pelicans, 12 kangaroos but no koalas (there are good biological reasons for this).

• etc.

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why so much damage?

• the hazard is unchangeable

• the risk presented by that hazard depends on exposure and vulnerability

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vulnerability

• in the last 100 years more people and greater infrastructure in the coastal zone

• it is no longer just the cow that is affected…

• the intensity, if not number of these events (and others such as droughts and fires) are expected to increase with climate change -> increasing vulnerability

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reduce exposure

reduce riskIn Oct 03 some warning would have assisted, as would some preparedness.

1. Beware the Katrina syndrome.

2. Have some planning, have some leadership, and abide by the regulations thus set down.

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this talk

• ENEs - the major ones in this region - how might they change in the future?



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moving towards resilience

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8 point program: Awareness, Exposure, Warning, Organisational structure, Staff, Mitigation, Media and Recovery.


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without knowledge, wise planning, and an appropriate response to

known threats it IS all our fault.

we would like to thank Tourism Qld., Qld EPA, Brisbane BOM , Helen Saenger, Lee Dorahy, Nicole Harry, Greg

Luker, Sumith Pathirana, and the CRC Tourism.