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Special Assessment
Single Point of Disruption on Natural Gas Infrastructure
Amir Najafzadeh, Senior Engineer, System AnalysisSPPDecember, 2016
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY2
• Generation impacted by fuel supply interruption: Pipeline segment outages Disruption of LNG transport operations Natural gas storage disruptions – 600+ facilities
• Aliso Canyon outage affecting generation capacity
• Argonne National Laboratory analysis on critical or significant Underground Natural Gas Storage, pipeline and Liquefied Natural Gas
Assessment Scope and Drivers
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY3
I• Identify key
natural gas infrastructure facilities
• Determine the amount of generation capacity impacted
Development Approach
II• Evaluate the
resource adequacy impacts
• Consider contribution of dual-fuel generation
III• Conduct an
assessment leveraging available power system studies
IV• Provide
actionable recommendations
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY4
• Approximately 30 members participating on the Advisory Group
• Various sectors represented: National Laboratories US and Canadian Natural Gas Associations Regional and FERC Staff Power pools, and utilities Independent System Operators and Regional Transmission Organizations
Advisory GroupComposition
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY5
1. Underground Natural Gas Facilities2. Pipeline Disruption Major Pipeline Cluster of Units
3. Compressor Source of Fuel4. LNG Facilities
Identify key natural gas infrastructure facilities
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY6
• Resource Adequacy• Power System Analysis (Deliverability and Capacity Transfer)• Existing Assessments Larger PCs/BAs Cross boundary PC/BA affected ERO-RAPA and NERC to form a question set
Analysis Method
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY7
• Comprehensive assessment of natural gas facilities and their impacts on electric sector
• Provide actionable recommendations
End Goal
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY8
Pipelines, Storage, and LNG Facilities
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY9
Schedule
- NERC BOT- Publish Report
- Draft report provided to PC/OC
May 2017March 2017
- Review PCs/TPsExisting Studies
Nov 2016
- Finalize scope - Form advisory group - Acquire data from Argonne
National Laboratory
Sep 2016
Report Development
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY10
Amir NajafzadehSenior Engineer, System Analysis404-446-9677 office | 404-330-4137 [email protected]
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY11
• The US used about 25 Tcf in 2014
• Over 550 active Natural Gas Storage (NGS) facilities
• 15 NGS facilities with over 2 million Mcf/d deliverability
By the Numbers
-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%
- 2 4 6 8
10 12
GW
Natural Gas Capacity Growth (Year 5)
Capacity Growth Percentage Growth
• 10-15 NGS facilities identified for closer evaluation by NERC and Argonne National Labs (i.e., potential Aliso Canyon-like impacts)
• Over 30 GW of natural gas capacity growth within 5 years
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY12
Underground Natural Gas Storage Facilities