Specific Examples of Modelling Work Using Specific Examples of Modelling Work Using Scottish IO DataScottish IO Data

Grant Allan, Peter McGregor, Nikos Pappas, Kim Swales and Karen Turner

Fraser of Allander Institute, CPPR and Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde

Applications of the Scottish IO tables (1)Applications of the Scottish IO tables (1)

• IO multiplier and ‘attribution’ analysis– Attribution to final demand by commodity or type of consumer– IO variables: output, income, GDP– Extended IO: employment, pollution

• Recent/current IO projects:– Seafish: contribution of fishing to UK economy (inter-regional)– Scotecon: environmental ‘trade balance’; waste IO – Contribution of the ‘Old Firm’ to the Scottish economy

Applications of the Scottish IO tables (2)Applications of the Scottish IO tables (2)

• IO as a database for CGE analysis– Extend to SAM accounts (income transfers)– Investment demands and labour market data

• Recent/current projects:– ESRC & Scottish Executive: demographic and population change– ESRC Devolution and Constitutional Change Research programme – ESRC and EPSRC funded research: energy-economy-environment

The Scottish IO tablesThe Scottish IO tables

• Industry-by-industry analytical IO tables

• Contrast with UK

• Issues:– Accuracy of and comparability of entries over time, particularly for smaller

sectors (e.g. fish processing!)– But, improvements in construction and balancing of tables

– Sectoral disaggregation – 128 IOC (based on SIC)– Consistency/compatibility with UK national and other regional data and inter-

regional trade– Geographical disaggregation within Scotland

Sectoral disaggregation Sectoral disaggregation

• E.g. Environmental accounting• Turner (2003) pilot study with SEAWG – CO2 accounts• Problems:

– Availability of environmental data, particularly at regional level – Consistency and compatibility economic and environmental data –

disaggregation– Common issue in literature, particularly wrt electricity (IOC 85)

• Another issue for green accounting – resource requirements for cleaning – Allan et al (2004): application of full Leontief (1970) pollution model– Identification of cleaning sectors (IOC 119)– ‘Green’ GDP accounting

Experimental Scottish IO data Experimental Scottish IO data

• Electricity (IOC85) disaggregated by generation type– Pilot CO2 accounts– ESRC and EPSRC ‘KLEM’ models– EPSRC – FAI surveys– Additional disaggregation – stages of supply process (SIC 2003 on)

• Imports from RUK and ROW disaggregated by commodity– General problem inter-regional trade data– But also UK regional data in general! (availability and compatibility)– Scotland better served than UK (particularly analytical IO tables)

Conclusions Conclusions

• Scottish IO tables– Regular reporting of analytical IO tables! (and FTE employment)– Key issue for modelling – Responsiveness of Scottish Executive in terms of investigating

extensions/developments of current IO accounts

• Issues– Accuracy of data, particularly in small sectors– Sectoral disaggregation– Consistency and compatibility with UK national and other regional

data– Inter-regional interaction