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1
FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
SpendTrend® Special Report
Update | Coronavirus Impact on Consumer Spending
SpendTrend® Special Report
All data is Fiserv proprietary data and includes only actual card-based forms of payment. SpendTrend is a macroeconomic indicator that reports aggregated year-over-year same store sales activity for card-based payments. SpendTrend from Fiserv does not represent Fiserv financial performance. © 2020 Fiserv. All rights reserved.
August 14, 2020
2
FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
SpendTrend® Special Report
Executive Summary
The easing of U.S. lockdown measures, a broad “opening up”
of the economy, and consumers increasingly getting out and
about, drove a sharp rebound in spending trends across many
sectors from April through June. In recent weeks, however,
we’ve seen some flattening of spending momentum.
Our proprietary SpendTrend analysis shows that the YoY decline in
consumer spending improved from -12.3% in July, to -10.2% through the
first five days of August, as we move further into the spending rebound
that began in the second half of April. Sectors that remain in positive
growth territory include Building Materials, Electronics and Furniture.
Sectors demonstrating relatively level spending trends include Dining,
Grocery, and Gas Stations. Sectors seeing declining growth momentum,
albeit after very strong rebounds, include Clothing and Luxury. While
growth trends in Entertainment and Travel are currently stable, they
remain at very depressed levels.
Within payment types, recent trends in behavioral changes have shown
notable movements in the past several months. From a cash usage
standpoint, ATM transaction activity continues its gradual rebound. At the
same time, the share of cash usage at the point of sale has declined
over 870 basis points since January and has seen ebbs and flows since
May. Conversely, the use of mobile wallets for in-app and e-commerce
purchases saw a sharp increase from March to May, and – while we saw
trends level off for June and the first part of July – we’ve seen another
upturn in recent weeks, as various lockdowns get reinstated.
As we indicated previously, the broader coronavirus narrative appears to
be impacting consumer spending patterns. Of note, we suspect that the
ample headlines on spiking coronavirus case growth may be driving a
leveling off of consumer mobility and slowing of reopening plans, which,
in turn, could be having a secondary impact on consumer spending
velocity. That said, more recent declining levels of U.S. case growth and
hospitalizations, and seemingly improving mortality rates, may bode well
for consumer confidence and spending going forward.
3
FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
SpendTrend® Special Report
3
U.S. Commerce Trends Through August 5
4
FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
SpendTrend® Special Report
2.1%0.2%
4.3% 2.8%1.7% 1.3% 2.1% 2.6% 1.9% 2.5% 2.4%
3.5% 3.5%1.8%
-17.4%
-34.4%
-21.5%
-14.2%-12.3%
-10.2%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
2019 2020
Monthly SpendTrend Trajectory
While still in negative territory, the trajectory for overall U.S. spending continues to steadily improve
YoY Sales Growth
Source: SpendTrend. Note: Data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis. 1. August 1-5.
1
5
FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
SpendTrend® Special Report
Source: SpendTrend. Note: Data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis.
5
YoY Transaction Growth
(7-day moving average)
Average Ticket
(7-day moving average)
Food, Beverageand Grocery
Grocery transactions have
spiked and dipped in recent
weeks, but remain down
slightly year-over-year as
consumers shop less often.
Ticket sizes continue to slowly
moderate from their March
and April highs, but remain
above pre-crisis levels as
basket size has increased.$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
$50
$52
$54
$56
$58
$60
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
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$49
-7%
Average ticket (black
line; right axis)
Transaction growth
(orange line; left axis)
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FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
SpendTrend® Special Report
Source: SpendTrend. Note: Data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis.
6
YoY Transaction Growth (7-day moving average)
Ex-QSR begins February 1.
Dining Out and Restaurants
The Dining sector rebound
appears to have plateaued in
recent weeks, apart from a
short-lived spike for the
Fourth of July holiday. This
flattening may be due to
news of increasing
coronavirus cases around the
country.-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
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Ex-QSR
-8%
-31%
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FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
SpendTrend® Special Report
Source: Fiserv. SpendTrend. Note: Data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis. 1. February 1-14. 2. February 15-28. 3. March 1-15. 4. March 16-31. 5. April 1-14. 6. April 15-30. 7. May 1-12. 8. May 13-31. 9. June 1-16. 10. June 17-30. 11. July 1-15. 12. July 16-31.
Dining Out and Restaurants Category Breakdown
YoY Sales Growth
Weakest No Growth Strongest
SpendTrend® Special Report
Every dining subcategory has
substantially improved since the
early days of the pandemic. In
June, several categories
benefited from indoor dining
reopening, but dipped again in
July as restrictions were
reinstated. Since then, those
categories have resumed their
steady upward climb.
1H
Feb1
2H
Feb2
1H
Mar3
2H
Mar4
1H
Apr5
2H
Apr6
1H
May7
2H
May8
1H
Jun9
2H
Jun10
1H
Jul11
2H
Jul12
1-5
Aug
Casual
Dining0% 5% -12% -77% -77% -72% -67% -59% -50% -40% -44% -44% -41%
Family
Dining2% 4% -10% -72% -75% -69% -62% -53% -45% -38% -42% -41% -39%
Fast
Casual3% 4% -3% -43% -42% -26% -25% -20% -16% -14% -13% -15% -12%
QSR 9% 8% 6% -21% -20% 0% 6% 8% 9% 7% 11% 11% 13%
Upscale
Dining1% 7% 1% -88% -89% -89% -86% -80% -71% -59% -60% -60% -57%
Total
Restaurants3% 5% -5% -49% -40% -34% -29% -22% -16% -16% -15% -16% -14%
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FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
SpendTrend® Special Report
Source: SpendTrend. Note: Data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis.
8
Building Materials and Garden Supply YoY Transaction Growth (7-day moving average)
The sector remains well
above pre-crisis levels,
thanks to continued stay-at-
home dynamics that are
supercharging seasonal
gardening and home
improvement activity.
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
28%
32%
36%
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19%
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FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
SpendTrend® Special Report
Source: SpendTrend. Note: Data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis.
9
Electronics and Appliances YoY Transaction Growth (7-day moving average)
Electronics remain elevated
after seeing a second breakout
in late June. This puts the
sector’s momentum above
levels seen over the previous
two months as the effects of
stimulus / savings linger, and
demand drivers shift from work-
from-home to school-from-
home.-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
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12%
Potential lift from
stimulus payments
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FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
SpendTrend® Special Report
10
Gas Stations
Recent demand trends for
gas have leveled off in recent
weeks, likely due to
flattening mobility trends and
the fact that consumers are
taking fewer short / regular
trips (e.g. work, school, etc.)
due to lingering restrictions
in place.
Source: SpendTrend, Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. Note: SpendTrend data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis. The Dallas Fed Mobility Index measures the deviation from normal mobility behaviors induced by COVID-19.
YoY Transaction Growth
(7-day moving average)
Dallas Fed Mobility Index
(7-day moving average)
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
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Dallas Fed Mobility Index
(black line; right axis)
Transaction growth
(orange line; left axis)
-9%
-47
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FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
SpendTrend® Special Report
Source: SpendTrend. Note: Data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis.
11
Clothing
YoY Transaction Growth (7-day moving average)
After a deep swoon into
March, Clothing saw a sharp
three-month rebound in
demand, possibly due to
consumers “freshening up”
their summer wardrobes.
With that behind us, the
sector’s momentum has
cooled off slightly in the last
several weeks.-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
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-22%
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FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
SpendTrend® Special Report
Source: SpendTrend. Note: Data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis.
12
Furniture
YoY Transaction Growth (7-day moving average)
Furniture spending velocity is
now solidly above pre-crisis
levels, but has leveled off
following a strong run, driven
by stimulus payments and
consumers refreshing their
living spaces.
6%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
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Potential lift from
stimulus payments
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FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
SpendTrend® Special Report
13
Luxury Goods
The Luxury category has
been on a multi-month
rebound since its March
lows, possibly due to pent
up demand, a rebounding
stock market and consumers
spending some of their
shelter-in-place savings.
S&P 500
(7-day moving average)
YoY Transaction Growth
(7-day moving average)
Source: SpendTrend, Refinitiv. Note: SpendTrend data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis.
2,300
2,500
2,700
2,900
3,100
3,300
3,500
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
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-6%
S&P 500
(black line; right axis)
Transaction growth
(orange line; left axis)
3,275
14
FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
SpendTrend® Special Report
Source: SpendTrend. Note: Data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis.
14
Entertainment and Leisure YoY Transaction Growth (7-day moving average)
After improvement in early
June, activity has plateaued
possibly because only a
limited number of consumers
are comfortable gathering in
public places and restrictions
remain in place.
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
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-58%
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FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
SpendTrend® Special Report
Source: SpendTrend. Note: Data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis.
15
Travel
YoY Transaction Growth (7-day moving average)
Similar to Entertainment
and Leisure, the rebound in
Travel has plateaued in
recent weeks, possibly on
the news of increasing
coronavirus case growth.
-68%
-100%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
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FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
SpendTrend® Special Report
16
Additional Analysis
17
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SpendTrend® Special Report
Source: Fiserv. 1. Measured as U.S. cash transactions as a percent of total at Clover merchants.
Cash Usage at the Point of Sale
Our Cash-Free Future Is Getting Closer
The New York Times
Will The Pandemic Spell The Real Death
Of Cash?
PYMNTS.com
Coronavirus Pandemic Causing Shortages
In Everything From Cash To Manufacturing
Supplies
CBSN Pittsburgh
Cash Usage Decrease1 (14-day moving average)
SpendTrend® Special Report
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23-M
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4-A
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16-A
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28-A
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10-M
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873 bps ↓decrease in cash usage
since the start of 2020…
but appears to be
bouncing along the bottom
18
FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
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SpendTrend® Special Report
Mobile Wallet In-App / E-Commerce Activity
Mobile Wallet (In-App / E-Commerce) Share of Transactions1
(7-day moving average)
SpendTrend® Special Report
Mobile Wallet In-App /
E-Commerce activity increased
as brick and mortar stores
closed, and consumers shifted to
delivery and pick-up. The trend
appeared to plateau and then
decrease as restrictions eased,
but have recently resumed the
upward trend as new restrictions
emerge.
Source: Fiserv. 1. Measured as Mobile E-commerce transactions as a percent of overall transactions. Mobile E-commerce transactions include transactions performed through mobile wallets such as Masterpass, Visa Checkout, Walmart Pay®, Apple Pay®, Samsung Pay® and Google Pay®, but excludes face-to-face contactless near field communications (NFC) transactions conducted via methods such as Apple Pay®, Samsung Pay® or Google Pay®.
7-J
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~2x ↑increase in penetration of mobile
wallet in-app / e-commerce
transactions since mid-March
19
FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
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SpendTrend® Special Report
ATM Transaction Trends
ATM withdrawals immediately
declined as lockdowns took hold
due to less need for cash, but
have steadily improved since the
April trough. Average withdrawal
amounts have also steadily
increased, possibly due to
stimulus payments and some
banks increasing withdrawal
limits.
Source: Fiserv. Note: ATM withdrawal transactions includes STAR® and Accel® network transactions. 1. February 1-14. 2. February 15-28. 3. March 1-15. 4. March 16-31. 5. April 1-15. 6. April 16-30. 7. May 1-15. 8. May 16-31.9. Jun 1-15. 10. Jun 16-30. 11. Jul 1-15. 12. Jul 16-31.
SpendTrend® Special Report
-6%
-2%
-7%
-49%
-50%
-44%
-41%
-36%
-28%
-22%-20%
-18%
$126
$128$128
$126
$129 $129
$131
$129
$137
$132
$135
$133
1H Feb 2H Feb 1H Mar 2H Mar 1H Apr 2H Apr 1H May 2H May 1H Jun 2H Jun 1H Jul 2H Jul
YoY Growth – Number of Transactions
Average Withdrawal Amount
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
20
FORTUNE World's Most Admired Companies®
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SpendTrend® Special Report
Spending by Type
While Nondiscretionary spend
(as a percent of total) peaked
in the second half of March as
consumers focused on the
essentials, Discretionary spend
has come back as stores open
up. Meanwhile, Services
remain depressed as some
tend to be driven more by
“high-contact” activity.
Sales Mix by Spending Type
SpendTrend® Special Report
Source: Fiserv. 1. January 1-15. 2. January 16-31. 3. February 1-14. 4. February 15-28. 5. March 1-15. 6. March 16-31. 7. April 1-15. 8. April 16-30. 9. May 1-15. 10. May 16-31. 11. Jun 1-15. 12. Jun 16-30. 13. Jul 1-15. 14. Jul 16-31.
Discretionary Nondiscretionary Services
1H Jan 2H Jan 1H Feb 2H Feb 1H Mar 2H Mar 1H Apr 2H Apr
1H May 2H May 1H Jun 2H Jun 1H Jul 2H Jul Aug 1-7
1 2 3 4 5 7 8
9
6
121110 1413
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SpendTrend® Special Report
P2P Trends
P2P payment activity for Gen Z has
remained slightly stronger than it was
prior to the mid-April stimulus. Timing
of spending patterns are also
generally the same.
Source: Fiserv.
SpendTrend® Special Report
Source: Fiserv.
Dollar Amount Growth by Selected Generations – YoY Growth
Transaction Count Growth by Amount Range – YoY GrowthSimilarly, transaction growth across
all size ranges has maintained
greater momentum post the stimulus
payments.
1-Jan 25-Jan 18-Feb 13-Mar 6-Apr 30-Apr 24-May 17-Jun 11-Jul 4-Aug
GenZ BoomerStimulus payments arrive
1-Jan 25-Jan 18-Feb 13-Mar 6-Apr 30-Apr 24-May 17-Jun 11-Jul 4-Aug
$1,000-$2,000 All TransactionsStimulus payments arrive
22
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SpendTrend® Special Report SpendTrend® Special Report
Bank Account Activity
The rate of overdrafts decreased as
consumers spent less through May, but
increased slightly as commerce resumed.
Consumer Accounts with Deposits – YoY GrowthAs lockdowns occurred, cash and check
deposits stagnated, but as restrictions
eased they have started to increase.
Small business account opening peaked in
mid-April ahead of the Paycheck Protection
Program, but has tapered off somewhat in
recent months.
Source: Fiserv.
Consumer Accounts Entering Overdraft – YoY Growth
New Small Business Accounts – YoY Growth
March 16-31 April May June July
3,100 bps
deceleration
1,000 bps
acceleration
March 23-31 April May June July
ACH Cash & Check
1,800 bps
acceleration
March 23-31 April May June July
6,200 bps
deceleration127,000 bps
acceleration
23
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SpendTrend® Special Report
Same Store figures include activity (amount of USD sales volumes or transactions) for merchant locations that
are open and have activity in both comparison time periods. They are not reflective of overall Fiserv activity.
Same Store Dollar Volume growth reflects the percent change in the USD amount of same store sales (net of
returns) in the current period compared to the same period in the prior year. Same Store Transaction growth
reflects the percent change in the number of same store transactions (net of returns) in the current period
compared to the same period in the prior year.
Same Store Average Ticket is derived by dividing the total USD amount of Same Store Sales for a specified
period by the total number of Same Store Transactions for that same period.
Same Store Sales Data includes sample data which we believe generally reflects current trends but does not
include all data available to Fiserv and specifically excludes Salem platform, Bank of America proprietary
platform, and Bank of America TSYS platform activity.
All data contains Credit, Debit and EBT transactions.
All charts show year-over-year (YoY) growth rates for same time period in previous year. Growth rates are not
seasonally adjusted.
Cash Usage at the Point of Sale includes transactions conducted at Clover Point of Sale terminals.
Mobile Wallet (in-app/e-commerce) includes transactions performed through mobile wallets such as Masterpass,
Visa Checkout, Walmart Pay, Apple Pay, Samsung Pay and Google Pay, but excludes face-to-face contactless
near field communications (NFC) transactions conducted via methods such as Apple Pay, Samsung Pay or
Google Pay.
P2P is person-to-person cash transfer services initiated with bank accounts at select financial institutions.
How to Read SpendTrend
All growth rates compare current performance to that of the same period prior year. We believe year-over-year
growth better reflects organic spending patterns. 7-day moving averages reflect the mean of the prior seven (7)
days.
We do not adjust for seasonality. We believe that seasonality adjustments are best made by the users of our
reports.
Our analysis is based on normalized POS activity from Fiserv’s proprietary systems. Our data includes only
card-based payments and checks where appropriate. Key differences between SpendTrend and other available
reports:
Government and network association reports are often based on surveys and estimates rather than actual POS
activity.
Government and network association reports often make sequential growth comparisons (i.e. April 2020 vs.
March 2020 instead of April 2020 vs. April 2019).
Government and network association reports make adjustments for assumptions and seasonality.
Terms and Conditions
The following terms and conditions (“Terms of Use”) apply to persons who are authorized to receive or obtain possession (“Rec ipient”) of this SpendTrend® report which was
prepared by First Data Merchant Services LLC (“First Data”), an affiliate of Fiserv, Inc. (referred to collectively as “Fiserv”) and governs Recipient’s use of the SpendTrend report
(including any portions or derivations thereof) and any articles, text, data, information, and other materials and services related thereto or included herein (collectively, “SpendTrend
report”). If Recipient is a subscriber to SpendTrend report, the terms of the subscriber agreement are in addition to and sha ll control to the extent there is any conflict with the terms
herein. Recipient agrees to be bound by, and to use the SpendTrend report in compliance with, the Terms of Use and all applicable laws, regulations, and rules. These Terms of Use
may be amended from time to time by Fiserv without notice and it is the Recipient’s responsibility to review the Terms of Use on www.spendtrend.com for updates, if any. If you have
any questions regarding the Terms of Use or the SpendTrend report, please contact Fiserv SpendTrend at [email protected].
1. Recipient is permitted to review, use, report, summarize, and print copies of the SpendTrend report solely for Recipient’s internal use as set forth in these Terms of Use. Except as
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