Sri Lanka Political Weather Analysis - June 2015

Political Weather Analysis- June 2015 Social Scientists' Association

1 Political Weather Analysis (PWA) -June 2015

INTRODUCTION

Political Weather Analysis (PWA) aims to provide a Polaroid snapshot of Sri Lankans position and

opinion on current political developments. PWA is a survey conducted among 1,500 households

across all the electoral districts in the country. The survey was conducted during the first week of

June 2015, with the participation of about 80 highly trained field researchers. The respondents for

the survey were randomly selected, and interviews were conducted using the face to face interview

technique, with the help of a structured questionnaire.

PWA is the first of a series of surveys aimed to be implemented by the Social Scientists Association

in order to capture public opinion on the political changes that the country is currently experiencing.

PWA thereby envisages providing a catalyst for the general public to voice their concerns on the on-

going politics and government policies in the country, in addition to informing the current political

discourse which is generally confined to a limited group, with the concerns and interests of the

general public.

This report aims to provide the top-line results of the survey.



METHODOLOGY

Using a multi-staged stratified random sampling technique, the survey approached a total of 1500

households, across 44 electorates, in 22 electoral districts in the country. The survey was

administered through the face-to-face interviewing method, using a structured questionnaire. The

questionnaire was limited to 35 questions, and field researchers were given extensive training on the

questionnaire, as well as on the field methods, in order to maintain a high quality throughout the

survey. The survey questionnaire was translated to Sinhala and Tamil languages and field

researchers of the respondents ethnic group were used to administer the questionnaire. Using this

rigorous sampling and field methodology, the survey captured the opinions of individuals from all

major ethnic communities Sinhala, Tamil, Muslim and Up-Country Tamil- and from all major

religious groups in the country Buddhist, Hindu, Islam, Catholic and Christian.

This methodology ensured that the national level findings are limited to a + or 3% error margin.

District Electorate Sample Size

1 Colombo Maharagama, Dehiwela/ Mount Lavinia, Colombo Central/ Maradana 61

2 Gampaha Kelaniya, Attangalle 61

3 Kalutara KudaWaskaduwa, Beruwala 60

4 Kandy Paathadumbara, Senkadagala 70

5 Badulla Haliela, Mahiyanganaya 66

6 NuwaraEliya Kotmale, Ambagamuwa 75

7 Kurunegala Wariyapola, Polgahawela 70

8 Anuradhapura Kekirawa, Kala Wewa 70

9 Puttalam Naththandiya, Puttalam 75

10 Jaffna Jaffna, Manipai 60

11 Monaragala Bibila, Siyambalanduwa 40

12 Kegalle Dedigama, Lenagala 71

13 Ratnapura Rathgama, Nivitithigala 70

14 Matale Raththota 30

15 Vavuniya Vavuniya 32

16 Matara Weligama, Deniyaya 70

17 Hambanthota Tissamaharama, Beliatta 70

18 Galle Ambalangoda, Rathgma 69

19 Ampara Samanthurai, Pothuvil, Digamadulla 57

20 Batticaloa Kaththankudy, Padirippu 80

21 Mannar Mannar 30

22 Polonnaruwa Polonnaruwa, Minneriya 70

1357



KEY FINDINGS

When asked to assess their familys economic situation compared to one year ago, 37.5% of the

respondents say that it has improved, while 38% claim that it has remained unchanged. The

positive evaluation of the familys economic condition is markedly higher among the minority

ethnic communities.

Almost half of the participants, when thinking of the countrys current political environment, feel

that they are more free compared to last year. Another 37% believe that there is no difference in

this regard. However, only 9% of the participants state that they feel less free in the current

political environment, compared to one year ago. While a majority of Sinhalese feel that there is

no change in the status quo, an overwhelming number of minority ethnic communities (Tamil

82%, Muslim 68%, Up Country Tamil 72%) state that the political environment today allows

them more freedom, compared to a year ago.

In general, a majority express their satisfaction with the performance of the present

government, under President Mithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe.

However, one third of the respondents state that they are dissatisfied. While overwhelming

numbers of the minority ethnic communities express their satisfaction (Tamil 83%, Muslim 87%,

Up Country Tamil 84%), with the performance of the present government with regard to

development, the Sinhala community express mixed reactions, with 42% claiming to be satisfied,

and 46% claiming they are dissatisfied.

Interestingly, the survey indicates that 71% of the respondents are unaware of arguably the

most significant achievement of the Mithripala Sirisena government, which was to pass the 19th

Amendment to the Constitution. This lack of awareness is higher among the Sinhala community

(79%) compared to minority communities, while more Tamils seem to have developed an

awareness (28%).

Those who claim to be aware of the 19th Amendment seem to have noticed the limits imposed

on the president, such as the limit to the number of terms an individual can hold the office of

President, the limit to the duration of the term of the office of the President and the reduction

of presidential immunity. In addition, 12.5% who are aware of the 19th Amendment mention the

establishment of Independent Commissions as a feature of it.

75% of those who were aware of the passage of the 19th Amendment believe that it will have a

positive impact on the future of the country. An overwhelming majority of all ethnic groups who

are aware of the passage of the 19th Amendment share this positive view. However, 9.1% of the



respondents believe it will have a negative impact on the future of the country. This opinion is

mainly entertained by the Sinhala community.

When asked to comment on the level of media freedom in the country compared to one year

ago, 60% of the respondents claimed that the situation has improved, and that there is greater

media freedom today. While 50% of Sinhalese respondents hold this positive view, the

percentage of minorities who are of this view is significantly higher (Tamil 79%, Muslim 69%, Up

Country Tamil 80%).

According to the survey findings, 43% of the respondents claim that there has been a certain

decline in the cost of living when compared to a year ago, while another 25% claim that the cost

of living in the country has remained unchanged. This figure is markedly higher among the

minority communities with 66% of Tamils, 57% of Muslims and 52% of Up Country Tamils

reporting a favourable change over the last year. However, only 35% of the Sinhala respondents

hold a similar view.

The survey indicates that 20% of all respondents believe that there has been a movement in a

positive direction in terms of infrastructure development, with a further 28% claiming that the

status quo has remained unchanged in this regard. 31% report that they cannot be satisfied with

the level of infrastructure development happening currently, as against a year ago. It appears

that a sizable number of the minority ethnic communities (53% of Tamils, 35% of Muslims and

27% Up Country Tamils) believe that there is greater infrastructure development today rather

than a year ago, while only 10% of Sinhalese share this view.

Almost 50% of the respondents report that the Rule of Law in the country has taken a positive

turn compared to the previous year, while another 25% claim that there has been no change in

the situation. While 41% Sinhalese note this improvement in the Rule of Law, more than 50% of

all minority communities (Tamil 71%, Muslim 58%, Up Country Tamil 56%) share the same view.

40% of the respondents claim that Sri Lankas Foreign Relations have improved compared to one

year ago. However, 33% claim that they are unaware of the countrys foreign relations.

Interestingly, only 33% of Sinhalese subscribe to this view, while 55% of Tamils, 44% of Muslims

and 53% of Up Country Tamils make this positive claim.

Regardless of ethnicity, 49% of respondents are of the belief that the interests of their particular

ethnicity is better served now compared to one year ago. Another 27% claim that the situation

remains unchanged in this regard. However, only 33% of Sinhalese feel that the interests of their

community are more ensured now compared to a year ago, whereas a very significant

component of the minority participants (Tamils 79%, Muslims 79% , Up Country Tamils 61%)



opine that their interests are more ensured now compared to the previous year. Mention must

also be made of the fact that 35% of Sinhalese feel that the situation is unchanged.

A similar view may be observed in relation to the respondents stance regarding the extent to

which the interests of their particular religious communities have been ensured today compared

to a year ago, with 51% responding in the affirmative. 29% state that things are unchanged,

while only 37% of Buddhists state that the interests of their religious community are better

ensured today. A much higher proportion of respondents among the minority religious

communities (68% of Hindus, 80% of Muslims, 57% of Catholics and 65% of Christians) feel the

same way.

A reasonable portion of the population (41%) states that the well-being of the army is better

ensured today compared to one year ago, while 22% feel that nothing has changed. There is no

significant difference in this view across ethnic communities, as the data indicates that 41% of

Sinhalese, 35% of Tamils, 43% of Muslims and 39% of Up Country Tamils share the view.

When asked whether relationships between ethnic communities will improve under Maithripala

Sirisenas presidency, 68% were hopeful it would, while 15% claim that things will remain the

same in future. This optimism is not shared in equal measure among the Sinhala community

(42%) as compared to minority communities (Tamil 74%, Muslim 84%, Up Country Tamil 87%).

As per the survey findings 84% of the participants agree that the government should intervene

more to ensure the rights of the minority. While 79% (which is the lowest percentage) of the

Sinhalese respondents are of this view, 90% of the Tamil community, 89% of the Muslim

community and 88% of the Up Country Tamil community feel the same way.

Similarly, 90% of the respondents agree that the government needs to do more to ensure

livelihood security of war affected individuals in the North and East of the country. There is very

little difference to be observed among ethnic communities on this issue with 89% of Sinhala,

90% Tamils and 89% Muslims and 97% Up Country Tamil expressing their agreement.

When asked whether they agree with the statement After the conclusion of the war, the

interests of the Sinhala community has been ignored, a very small number of participants (16%)

agreed, while 68% of the respondents disagreed. Interestingly, it is the Sinhala community who

disagrees most (71%) about the interests of the Sinhala community being undermined after the

war.



TOPLINE RESULTS



1) I would like to begin this discussion by asking your assessment about the current economic

condition of your family. Do you think your familys economic condition has improved or worsened

compared to a year ago?

Ethnic Breakdown

3.4

34.1

38.5

16.7

6.3

1.0

Much better A little better Has not changed A little worse Much worse DK/NR

2.8 4.2 5.7 3.4

26.6

57.1

38.0

49.1

41.5

23.6

44.9

31.0

19.5

13.1 8.2

12.1 8.2

2.1 1.9 1.3 .0 1.3 .0 %

25%

50%

75%

100%

Sinhala Tamil Muslim UC Tamil

Much better

A little better

Has not changed

A little worse

Much worse

DK/NR



2)Thinking of the countrys current political environment, do you feel more free or less free now

compared to one year ago?

Ethnic Breakdown

8.5

39.2 37.0

8.1

1.2

6.0

25

50

Much more free Little more free No difference Little less free Not free at all DK/NR

5.2 9.4

19.0 18.1

28.5

71.9

48.7 54.3

46.1

15.1

25.3

19.0

11.3

2.1 1.3 2.6 1.5 .5 .0

1.7 7.4

1.0 5.7 4.3

%

25%

50%

75%

100%


Much more free

Little more free

No difference

Little less free

Not free at all

DK/NR



3)Looking at the development of the country in general, could you tell me whether you are satisfied

or dissatisfied with the performance of the present government under President Maithripala Sirisena

and Prime Minister RanilWickramasinghe?

Ethnic Breakdown

11.4

45.2

24.8

8.8 9.7

25

50

Very Satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied

Very Dissatisfied DK

6.4 11.5

28.5 26.7

35.5

71.4

58.9 58.6

34.3

8.3 3.8

7.8

12.9

1.6 1.3 .0

10.9 7.3 7.6 6.9

%

25%

50%

75%

100%


Very Satisfied

Somewhat satisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied

DK



4) How aware are you of the 19th Amendment, which was passed recently?

Ethnic Breakdown

3.2

17.3

71.6

7.9

25

50

75

100

Very much aware Somewhat aware Not aware DK/NR

5.2 9.4 19.0

18.1

17.3

23.6

14.1 11.2

79.2

46.1

66.0 62.1

1.1

26.2

10.9

25.9

%

25%

50%

75%

100%


Very much aware

Somewhat aware

Not aware

DK/NR



5) If you are very much aware or somewhat aware of the 19th Amendment, could you tell me three

features of the 19th amendment?

26.0 25.0

17.2

4.9 5.7

12.5

0%

25%

50%

Limiting Presidential Term Limit

Reducing the duration of the

Presidential term

Reducing Presidential Immunity

President can only dissolve

Parliament after 4.5 years

30 Ministers / 40 Deputy Ministers

Establishing Independent Commissions



6) If you are aware of the 19th amendment, what impact do you think it will have on the future

of the country?

Ethnic Breakdown

75.5

9.1 4.4

10.9

25

50

75

100

Will have positive impact

Will have negative impact

Will have no impact DK/ NR

73.3

82.0 77.8

75.0

10.8

.0

13.9 8.3

5.7 2.0 2.8 .0

10.2 16.0

5.6

16.7

%

25%

50%

75%

100%


Will have positive impact

Will have negative impact

Will have no impact

DK/ NR



7) How do you assess the level of media freedom in the country compared to last year?

Ethnic Breakdown

13.2

46.6

21.1

5.2

.9

13.1

25

50

Greatly Improved

Improved Same as before Deteriorated Greatly Deteriorated

Dont know/ Cant Say

9.7 13.5

22.8 26.7

41.3

66.1

46.8

54.3

27.0

7.8

14.6

6.0 7.1 1.6 2.5

.0 1.1 .5 .6 .0

13.8 10.4 12.7

12.9

%

25%

50%

75%

100%


Greatly Improved

Improved

Same as before

Deteriorated

Greatly Deteriorated

Dont know/ Cant Say



8) Compared to last year, what do you think of the Cost of Living today?

Ethnic Breakdown

2.7 6.3

10.1 6.0

32.3

60.2%

47.5 47.4%

24.6

17.8

29.1 27.6 25.3

10.5 7.6

18.1 12.3

1.6 1.3 .0 2.8 3.7 4.4 .9

%

25%

50%

75%

100%


Great Deal of Relief

Some Relief

Same as before

Some difficulty

Great deal of difficulty DK/NR

4.3

39.3

24.5

20.5

8.5

2.9

25

50

Great Deal of Relief

Some Relief Same as before Some difficulty Great deal of difficulty

DK/NR



9) Compared to last year, do you think the Infrastructure Developments in the country has improved

or deteriorated?

Ethnic Breakdown

1.9

18.3

28.0 31.1

12.5

8.3

25

50

Greatly Improved

Improved Same as before Deteriorated Greatly Deteriorate

DK/NR

1.1 3.7

5.1

.9

8.2

30.4

26.7 27.5

25.1

35.4

26.7

38.4

7.9

19.0

29.3

16.6

1.6 1.9

12.9

8.2

11.5

8.2

3.4

%

25%

50%


Greatly Improved

Improved

Same as before

Deteriorated

Greatly Deteriorate

DK/NR



10) Compared to last year, what do you think has happened to the Rule of Law in the country?

Ethnic Breakdown

8.7

40.5

25.2

7.3

2.6

15.7

25

50

Greatly Improved


DK/NR

6.4 9.9

21.5

6.9

35.1

62.3

37.3

50.0

28.4

12.0

21.5

27.6

10.0 3.7

1.3 .9 3.3

1.6 1.9

.0

16.8

10.5

16.5 14.7

%

25%

50%

75%

100%


Greatly Improved

Improved

Same as before

Deteriorated


DK/NR



11) Compared to last year, do you think the countrys Foreign Relations, in general, has improved or

deteriorated?

Ethnic Breakdown

9.1

30.4

16.1

9.7

1.5

33.2

25

50

Greatly Improved


DK/NR

6.1 8.3

20.3 19.0

27.4

47.4

24.1

34.5

18.9

12.0 12.7

6.9

13.5

3.6 1.9 .9 2.0 1.0 .0 .0

32.2

27.6

41.1 38.8

%

25%

50%


Greatly Improved

Improved

Same as before

Deteriorated


DK/NR



20) Compared to last year, do you think the interests of your ethnic community have been ensured? If

not have they been undermined?

Ethnic breakdown

4.0

9.9 15.2 15.5

29.7

69.3 64.6

56.9

35.0

8.9 7.6

25.0

18.7

2.6 5.1 1.7 2.5 2.6 .0 .0

10.0 6.8 7.6

.9 %

25%

50%

75%

100%


Greatly Ensured

Ensured

Same as before

Undermined

Greatly Undermined

DK/NR

7.1

41.7

27.3

13.4

2.0

8.5

25

50

Greatly Ensured Ensured Same as before Undermined Greatly Undermined

DK/NR



21) Compared to last year, do you think the interests of your religious community have been

ensured? If not have they been undermined?

Ethnic Breakdown

7.8

43.8

29.8

9.9

1.5

7.1

25

50

Greatly Ensured Ensured Same as before Undermined Greatly Undermined

DK/NR

4.1

14.6 17.9

7.6 5.0

33.3

64.6 62.3

50.6

60.0

38.8

13.8

8.0

27.8 30.0

14.0

2.1 3.7 5.1

.0 1.9 .0 1.2 1.3 5.0

8.0 5.0 6.8

7.6

.0 %

25%

50%

75%

100%

Buddhist Hindu Islam Catholic Christian Non RC

Greatly Ensured Ensured Same as before Undermined Greatly Undermined DK/NR



22) Compared to last year, do you think the government has shown more interest or less interest

towards the well-being of the military?

Ethnic breakdown

8.0

33.1

22.5

11.4

2.7

22.3 25

50

Shows much more interest

Shows more interest

Same as before Shows less interest

Shows much less interest

DK/NR

9.2

1.6 5.1

12.9

32.7 34.4

38.6

26.7

23.2

19.3 20.9

24.1

14.6

8.3

3.8 2.6 3.7 1.0 1.3 .0

16.6

35.4

30.4 33.6

%

25%

50%


Shows much more interest Shows more interest Same as before

Shows less interest Shows much less interest DK/NR



23) In your opinion, do you think the relationships between ethnic communities will improve or

deteriorate, under the leadership of President Sirisena?

Ethnic Breakdown

12.3

44.1

15.9

10.9

2.6

14.2

25

50

Will Greatly Improve

Will improve Will remain the same

Will Deteriorate Will Greatly Deteriorate

DK/NR

5.9

19.8 24.1

32.8 37.4

55.2 60.1

55.2

20.8

7.8 5.1 6.9

15.9

.5 3.2 .0 3.7

.0 .6 .9

16.3 16.7

7.0 4.3

%

25%

50%

75%

100%


Will Greatly Improve Will improve Will remain the same

Will Deteriorate Will Greatly Deteriorate DK/NR



24.1) Government should intervene more to ensure equal rights of minority communities.

Ethnic Breakdown

40.1

44.3

9.4

.7

5.5

25

50

Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree DN/ NR

27.4

66.1 60.1

67.2

53.0

24.0 29.1 31.9

14.1

.0 .6 .0 1.1

.0 .0 .0 4.4

9.9 10.1

.9 %

25%

50%

75%

100%





24.2) More work needs to be done, by the government, to ensure the livelihoods of the war affected

communities in the North and East

Ethnic Breakdown

43.8

46.9

3.7

.2

5.3

25

50


33.8

71.9

53.2

62.1 56.6

18.2

36.1 35.3

5.4 1.0

.0 .0 .2

.0 .6 .0

4.0 8.9 10.1

2.6

%

25%

50%

75%

100%





24.3) After the conclusion of the war, the interests of the Sinhala community has been ignored.

Ethnic Breakdown

1.5

14.3

46.4

22.8

15.1

25

50


1.7 .5 1.3 1.7

17.6 9.9

3.2

11.2

58.4

18.8

24.7 29.3

13.1

44.3 38.0 40.5

9.2

26.6 32.9

17.2

%

25%

50%

75%

100%



Social Scientists' Association - No.12, Sulaiman Terrace, Colombo 05, Sri Lanka.Tel: +94-11-2501339 / +94-11-2504623 | Fax: +94-11-2586400

E-mail: [email protected]

Documents

Sri Lanka Political Weather Analysis - June 2015