OPA Meeting21 September 2005, 9:00 – 10:00 amp ,

Ci il E i i D t t U i it f T tSTABILITY OF PRICE AND POWER PRODUCTION OF

CLEANER ELECTRICITY IN ONTARIO

Civil Engineering Department, University of Toronto

OptimisationBest Efficiency – Free Spinning Reserve - Stability

Prof. Stan Pejovic, Ph.D., P.Eng.E-mail: stan.pejovic@utoronto.ca

pejovics@asme.orgWebsite: http://fon.fon.bg.ac.yu/~cane/

Good morningGood morning.My name is Stan PejovicMy name is Stan Pejovic.

I am formerly Prof of MechanicalI am formerly Prof. of Mechanical Engineering, U. of Belgrade, and now part-time professor. and research associate at th U i it f T tthe University of Toronto.

We'd thank you for allowing us theWe'd thank you for allowing us the opportunity to express our views here today. y

• Who am I ? • Education of expertsEducation of experts • Optimisation and Supply mix

• Spinning reserveP i iti• Priorities

• Price and price variation• Computer programs

Nuclear plants• Nuclear plants• Nuclear/coal combined with pumped-storage• Hydro power and pumped storage plantsHydro power and pumped storage plants • Role with renewable energy

• Who am I?• Who am I?

Some of my designs

My first transient analysisMy first transient analysis"Nikola Tesla" Thermal Power Plant

(Total 2800 MW)

My recent transient analysis20022002

• Big Hanaford Combined Cycle Plant• Centralia, Washington, USg

Single Stage Pump-Turbine heads:zero up to 782 m

Progress in Pumping Head of Pomp TurbinesProgress in Pumping Head of Pomp-Turbines

My design

Pumped Storage Plant Bajina BastaMy First Experience

2 Pump

pe e ce

4x90 MW 4x150 m3/s 2 Pump

Turbine

M tMy project600 MW Motor

Generator

600 MW

Feasibilityunits

Each

Feasibility study.to

300 MWto.Trial operation

8

Pumped Storage Plant Bajina Basta2 Pump-Turbine Motor-Generator units Each 300 MW2 Pump Turbine Motor Generator units Each 300 MW

Requirements for New Graduatesend

EExperts• New graduates, particularly Masters or PhD • Should have 10 to 15 years of design experience• Should have 10 to 15 years site experience • Able to select and read journals and textbooks. j• When few experts, learning time should be

increased

– Number of accidents and errors must be reduced– Education costs millions, accidents cost billions …

and can endanger livesand can endanger lives

• Planned multidisciplinary transfer of know-Planned multidisciplinary transfer of knowhow

• Assignment facing the electricity sector• Assignment facing the electricity sector and universities in Ontario and CanadaPi t l d i i h ld h l d• Pivotal decisions should have already been made.

Ontario and Canadian (US) universities areOntario and Canadian (US) universities are not teaching students

to design– to design – to maintain

to operate– to operate electric plants and auxiliary systems of big

l tpower plants

OPTIMISATIONOPTIMISATION

Characteristic Production CostsWhen units operate with lowest costs, contributed spinning reserve is the difference between possible

l d d t i t f tioverload and current point of operation:

Spinning reserves of all running generators form total system reserve

Up-to-date Spinning ReserveUp to date Spinning Reserve

• Storage and pumped storage hydro plantsStorage and pumped storage hydro plants are today economical and reliable solutions; lowest costssolutions; lowest costs.

G t i h d d ti• Generators running hydrogen production will eventually be solution for clean fuel

t d i istorage and spinning reserve. (But when?)

When all units generate at the best efficiency costs are ~minimum ~lowest price $/kWhcosts are ~minimum – ~lowest price $/kWh

Difference between power at high efficiency and design (rated)efficiency and design (rated) power is the cheapest (free) spinning reserve.

Turbine VibrationOn-Line measured operating point and

Vib ti h t i ti ( 22 M h 1995)Vibration characteristic (on 22 March 1995)

250

300m

)Severe VibrationsStrong Vibrations

120100

150

200

mpl

itude

( Normal Vibrations

7030

0

50

0 50 100 150 200

Am

0 50 100 150 200Power (MW)

When bearing vibrations are close to prescribed limits (120 mμ), operation is acceptable, but only under close monitoring and supervision; if this limit is exceeded, g p ; ,accidents should be expected

agingoftimeteExposurera =

Unit Exposure Rate and Exposure

timerealteExposurera

Rate Measured On-Line

3

4

te (-

)

This difference is proportional

1

2

Exp

osur

e R

at to the real measured vibrations

00 50 100 150 200

Power (MW)

E

( )

,...) , ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(

sticscharacteriFluidcontentAironCondensatiCorosionerosionFatigueStressQualityTypennHQFATEE sRR σ=

Profit Water Losses and Profit On-LineUS$/h Profit, Water Losses and Profit On-Line

50006000

US$/h

ProfitWater Loses

Profit lossesWater or

200030004000

Water LosesFuel losses

-10000

1000

-20001000

0 50 100 150 200Power (MW)Power (MW)

When all units generate at the best efficiency (or the lowest costs) total costs are not minimum.!

Each generator has its lowest price.

The lowest costs of the whole system means that some generators will operate only few hundred hours per year andper year and

some will not operate at all, pbut system must have them as a reservereserve

The FutureThe FutureO t i k t t b d t d th• Ontario market must be adapted as the Power Pool to eliminate any risk to investment in any generation source.

• Electricity from all existing and new generating facilities should be regulated to the following ends:the following ends:– Prices to reflect true cost of generation,– And of reserve capacity,

And public need for stable production– And public need for stable production,– And affordable power with stable prices,– And with a continual emphasis on

ti d d t ticonservation and adaptation

Immediate PrioritiesImmediate Priorities

• Peak generators• Speed no load generators• Stand by generators• Renewable energy production

T i i li• Transmission lines• Energy conservation• Production optimization• Production optimization

Need for ReserveNeed for Reserve

• As Banks must carry a credit reserves• As Banks must carry a credit reserves to avoid financial instability and runs…S d ti t• So power production must carry an operational reserve.– This cannot be paid for in the same way as

power consumed!– If not put in place, the system will fail again

and again….

Stable ProductionStable Production

• Reserve in capacity spinning reserves

stand-by reserves

Reserve energy is not directly productive, and thus

Cannot be charged in same way as consumption!

We must pay for car insurance but

Neither car owners nor insuranceNeither car owners nor insurance companies want accidents or claims

Ontario must be insured with running and spinning no load reservespinning no-load reserve

orwe will all have to pay billions forwe will all have to pay billions for

blackouts

What is “spinning no load” reserve?p g

Minimal spinning reserveMinimal spinning reserve

=Uncontrolled drop of the biggest generatorUncontrolled drop of the biggest generator

or

the biggest power plant which could be dropped

or

power transmitted by uncertain transmission linepower transmitted by uncertain transmission line.

Existing resources ▐ include Required Capacity ▬▬which must be above consumption ▬▬ plus spinning reserve ▬▬ and plus stand by reserve ▬▬

Basic data from Shane Pospisil, Sep. 28, 2004

Without explicit consideration of production and spinning reserves

stability in the generation system cannot be achieved.

Instability create huge economic and y gsocial consequences.

BLACKOUT becomes inevitable

MW

Dinorwig and Ffestiniog pumped storage plants - UKResponse 22-05-02 17:42

300

MW

Jump 170 MWTwo units600 MW

50 Hz300

Frequency

Jump 40 MW

49,50 Spinning no load

I 1 1 i 900 MW90 MW

,

17.0 time (hour) 17.3

In 1.1 min 900 MWjump 5 units

210 MW jump in few seconds; 920 MW in few minutes

Spinning reserveSpinning reserve• Hydrogen (ready?)y g ( y )

• HydroelectricHydroelectric

• Pump storage• Pump-storage

PRICE AND PRICE VARIATION

Even at the highest consumption, available power must exceed demand. Key units must be ready:Key units must be ready:

• some to cover existing demand,others for stand by to• others for stand-by to

quickly cover unpredictable malfunctions, and both forecast and random peaks.NB: Reserve units do not generate revenue through electrical sales!

Spinning reserveSpinning reserve

• Hydrogen is candidate for replacing gasoline.Hydrogen is candidate for replacing gasoline.• Excess power generate hydrogen and oxygen.• Various institutions are studying technologies forVarious institutions are studying technologies for

generating hydrogen in large-scale amount. • Hydrogen as a fuel cannot be a cheap andHydrogen as a fuel cannot be a cheap and

economical storage of electricity as the efficiency of transformation cycle (electricity surplus – hydrogen – electricity peak energy) is at the level of 40% or even less.

Hydrogen Highway is expected to be up andHydrogen Highway is expected to be up and running by the 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games, which will take place in Vancouver and Whistler.

Hydrogen Highway is part of long-range plan to assist Canada in moving toward greater use of h d f l ll i hi l d hhydrogen fuel cells in vehicles and other power-generation applications.

Pumped storage is the most widespread energy storage system in use on power

networks.

It i li ti f Ad tIts main applications are for

energy management,

Advantages

100% CLEANgy goptimisation,

frequency control, and provision of free reserve

Highest efficiencyFree spinning reserve

Stabilityprovision of free reserve. Stability“No blackouts”

Pumped Storage

• Excellent operational flexibility• In standby mode, can cover peaks of demand • By operating-in-air-either spin-pump or spin-y p g p p p p

generate improves loading performance. • In reserve modes, uses less than 1% of rated

power • Quickly change to pump or generate. • Can swing power-output widely in a few sec.• Can operate as part-load-reserve machines. p p

Pumped Storagep g

• Works as reserve to track unexpected pdemand or generator failures

• Responds automatically to frequency withResponds automatically to frequency with no operator intervention

• Contributes to quality of electric power• Contributes to quality of electric power(frequency and voltage)

• Improves reliability of system.

GenerationC ti

P(MW)

Consumptiona Hydro run-of-river generatorsa Hydro run of river generatorsb Thermal and nuclear plantsc Peakers: Storage plants & g

pumped-storage plantsd Pumping / storage

1 Run-of-river plants (a&b)2 Peakers (c)

0 12 24 h

Spinning reserveSpinning reserveHydrogen production must be y g pequal to the spinning reserve

When the biggest generator system fail production of hydrogen is automatically reduced

blackout prevented.

Future 10 – 20 years?

Minimum spinning reserve

880 MW = 1 Darlington's generator

OROR

3920 MW = Nanticoke

Darlington 3524MW (4 U)

Nanticoke3920 MW (8 U)

Darlington Nuclear Generating Station

4-unit station total output of 3,500 MW20% of Ontario’s electricity needs

Nanticoke,OPG coal-fired station

8x500 MW total 4,000 MW30+ year-old generating station30+ year old generating station

R i t t t i th k t lRequirement to operate in the marketplace with many starts and stops …caused equipment to break down.

Darlington 3524 MW (4 U)Nanticoke3920 MW (8 U)

What to choose as spinning reserve?

3920 MW (8 U)p g

US Transmission System OperationUS Transmission System Operation and Interconnection

Criterion for running a system is often called the

"n-1" criterion.

Operation is based on the premise that no single event (such as the loss of a line or a generator or an electric plant) should lead to the cascading uncontrolled failure of a large portion of the systemuncontrolled failure of a large portion of the system.

Transmission GridTransmission Grid

• High capacity transmission line to connectHigh capacity transmission line to connect the various provincial grids.

• Would be great benefit• Would be great benefit• Parallel to any other improvements in

d ti d tenergy production and storage

MaintenanceMaintenance

• List of equipmentList of equipment• List of failure

I ti ib ti d th• Inspection, vibrations and many other tests

• Planning of job and safety

ProductionProduction

• OptimisationOptimisation• Control center

L l t l f h l t• Local control of each plant• Data acquisition• On line information• On line managementOn line management• Off line analyses

MarketMarket

• Expert engineersExpert, engineers• Management

O ti• Operation• Control• Customers• FundsFunds• Stakeholders

SystemSystem

M i tMarket Maintenance

Production Library

On-Line Management gand Control

AppendixAppendix

Clean water

A l f d i ki tA glass of drinking water

Good news NIAGARA FALLS, ON, Sept. 14 /CNW/

Ni T lNiagara TunnelOntario Power Generation beginsOntario Power Generation begins

Niagara Tunnel project OPG today announced start of constructionOPG today announced start of construction

on its $985 illi 1$985-million, 10.4-kilometre Niagara Tunnel project new, clean electricity by late 2009.

The EndThe End

Prof. Stanislav Pejovic, Ph.D., P.Eng.1411 - 300 Webb Drive, Mississauga, ON, L5B 3W3,

Tel: (905) 896-1253, Cell: 416-270-8126E-mail: pejovics@asme.org,

Website: http://fon.fon.bg.ac.yu/~cane/