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Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technology
Robert SocolowPrinceton UniversityPrinceton, NJ, USA
In-Session Workshop on MitigationSBSTA 21
December 9, 2004Buenos Aires
This talk is based on a paper of the same title, by Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow, published in the August 13, 2004, issue of Science, 305 (5686), pp. 968-972,
and its Supporting Online Material.
20542004
14
7
Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year
1954
0
Historical emissions
1.9
2104
Past Emissions
20542004
14
7
Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year
1954
0
Historical emissions
1.9
2104
Stabilization Triangle
Currently
projected path
Flat path
The Stabilization Triangle
OInterim Goal
20542004
14
7
Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year
1954
0
Stabilization Triangle
Currently
projected path
Flat path
Historical emissions
1.9
2104
Easier CO2 target
~850 ppm
Tougher CO2 target
~500 ppm
Targets
O
The Interim Goal and the Stabilization Triangle
The Interim Goal: The Same Emissionsin 2054 as Today
The interim goal is on the path to stabilization below doubling (450-550 ppm).
2054 emissions are projected to be twice those of today, if carbon emissions are ignored.
The Interim Goal is Within Reach
Reasons for optimism:
•The world today has a terribly inefficient energy system.
•Carbon emissions have zero economic cost.
•Most physical plant has a lifetime of less than 50 years.
20542004
14
7
Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year
1954
0
Currently
projected path
Flat path
Historical emissions
1.9
2104
14 GtC/y
7 GtC/y
Seven “wedges”
Wedges
O
What is a “Wedge”?
A “wedge” is an activity reducing the rate of carbon build-up in the atmosphere that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 Gt(C)/yr.
1 GtC/yr
50 years
Total = 25 Gigatons carbon
Energy Efficiency &Conservation
Fuel SwitchForests & Soils
CO2 Captureand Storage
Nuclear Fission
Stabilization Triangle
2004 2054
7 GtC/y
14 GtC/y
Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven Wedges
Renewable Electricity and Fuels
Humanity Already has the Tools
• READINESS: All wedge technologies are already deployed somewhere at commercial scale.
• PORTFOLIO: No single wedge technology can do the whole job, or even half the job.
• CHOICE: Not every wedge technology is needed.
Efficiency and Conservation Efficiency and Conservation
transport buildings
industry power
lifestyle
Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge:
2 billion cars at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.
Wind ElectricityWind Electricity
Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge:
Two million 1 MW windmills.
Today: 40,000 (2%)
Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany
(Danish Wind Industry Association)
Power with Carbon Capture and StoragePower with Carbon Capture and Storage
Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy
Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge:
Carbon capture and storage at 800 GW coal power plants.
Carbon StorageCarbon Storage
Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge:
3500 Sleipners
A flow of CO2 into the Earth equal to the flow of oil out of the Earth today
Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA
Start now to gain experience with the permitting of storage sites.
BiofuelsBiofuels
Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge:
Two billion 60 mpg cars running on biofuels
250 million hectares of high-yield crops (one sixth of world cropland).
Usina Santa Elisa mill in Sertaozinho, Brazil (http://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/searchpix.cgi?getrec=5691971&display_type=verbose&search_reverse=1_
Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge:
Eliminate tropical deforestation
and
Rehabilitate 400 million hectares (Mha) temperate or 300 Mha tropical forest
Natural StocksNatural Stocks
Photo: SUNY Stonybrook
Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge:
Conservation tillage on all cropland..
Forests Soils
Photo: Brazil: Planting with a jab planter. FAO
Other Wedges
ELECTRICITY • Natural gas for coal• Nuclear power• Power from photovoltaics (PV)
FUELS• Synthetic fuel from coal, natural gas, and biofuels, with carbon
capture and storage• Hydrogen from coal and natural gas, with carbon capture and
storage• Hydrogen from nuclear energy • Hydrogen from wind or PV
METHANE MANAGEMENT• landfill gas, cattle, rice, natural gas
Consensus Building at COP-10
Advocates of particular wedges agree:
1. The best wedges for one country may not be the best for another.
2. It is too soon to pick “winners.”
3. The environmental and social costs of scale-up need attention.
4. Subsidy of early stages is often desirable.
5. At later stages, markets help to choose the best wedges.
Can a consensus in favor of early action be built on stabilization wedges?
