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Further information on page 5
Statistical spotlightEuropean Parliamentary Research Service 11/12/2013
Author: Giulio Sabbati Contact: [email protected] 130690REV1 Page 1 of 6
Ageing population: projections 2010 - 2060 for the EU270
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1. EU27 population by age and sex Data source: Eurostat (demo_pjangroup, proj_10c2150p) and UN
Toal: 500 million Total: 517 million
PopulationEU27 China Japan India Russia USA
2010 2060 2010 2060 2010 2060 2010 2060 2010 2060 2010 2060
80+ 5% 12% 1% 7% 6% 19% 1% 3% 3% 5% 4% 8%65 - 79 13% 18% 7% 21% 17% 18% 4% 12% 10% 17% 9% 15%15 - 64 67% 56% 74% 57% 64% 50% 65% 66% 72% 61% 67% 60%0 - 14 16% 14% 18% 15% 13% 13% 30% 18% 15% 17% 20% 18%Total (million) 500 517 1 360 1 313 127 103 1 206 1 644 144 115 312 418
2010 2060
15 - 64
65 - 79
80+
0 - 14
Age
0500000010000000150000002000000025000000 0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 25000000
55%
18%
14%
14%
58%
17%
10%
15%
25 1515 55 250Millions of persons0500000010000000150000002000000025000000 0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 25000000
65%
14%
6%
15%
69%
12%
16%
25 1515 55 250Millions of persons
3%
Ageing of the European Union (EU) population has a major impact on so-ciety and in terms of economics. A de-creasing birth rate and an increase in life expectancy are expected to trans-form the shape of the EU’s age pyra-mid and also raise the median age.In the 50 years from 2010 to 2060, the population aged 65 or over as a pro-portion of the working age population (aged 15-64) will almost double, rising from one older person for every four workers to one for every two. Persons active in the labour force will face an increasing tax burden and higher so-cial contributions in order to support their elders. Alternatively, older citi-zens will need to accept lower levels of support and services or a higher pen-sion age. This spotlight highlights the major changes projected to take place in the five decades from 2010. It looks at the age profile of the EU population and shows the expected evolution in life expectancy, median age and labour force in Member States. Finally it shows the implications of an ageing society on social expenditure on old-age pen-sions, healthcare and long-term care.
Further information on page 5
Statistical spotlight Ageing population: projections 2010 - 2060 for the EU27
Author: Giulio Sabbati Contact: [email protected] 130690REV1 Page 2 of 6
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3. Median age (years) Data source: UN
2010 2060
CY
PL
PT
MT
BG
CZ
GR
SI
IE
AT
LV
UK
FR
DK
China
Russia
USA
SK
RO
ES
HU
LT
IT
DE
EU27
LU
EE
NL
BE
FI
SE
Japan
India
34.6
38.0
37.1
34.2
38.0
41.0
40.2
42.4
39.5
41.8
41.5
34.3
41.8
41.2
39.8
40.0
40.6
37.2
38.5
40.2
39.9
38.7
43.3
44.3
40.1
38.9
40.5
40.8
41.1
42.0
40.7
44.9
25.5
49.2
46.4
40.3
50.1
53.8
55.1
52.4
53.0
50.0
51.8
51.1
43.1
49.1
47.7
44.3
44.0
43.2
53.0
53.1
54.0
50.7
49.2
53.6
54.0
49.3
47.0
47.1
46.9
45.4
45.1
42.4
57.6
32.2
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
2060 - 2010
2010
USAIndia
RussiaJapanChina
SEDK
FIFRBEUKNLLVEEATLUIE
EU27SI
DEGR
ITCZLT
BGHUMTESPTROPLSKCY
Changes in median age
2. EU27 life expectancy at birth Data source: EC
Year
s
EU27
90
85
80
752010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
65
70
75
80
85
90At birth - Women
At birth - Men
20602055205020452040203520302025202020152010
Female
Male
Year
s
90
85
80
75
70
65
2060
65
70
75
80
85
90
Women
MenROBGLVH
ULTSKPLEECZ
DKIESIMT
UK
EU27PTBED
E
NL
CYELLUATFISEITFRES
84.6
89.1
2010
65
70
75
80
85
90
WomenMen
ROBGLVHULTSKPLEECZ
DKIESIMT
UK
EU27PTBED
E
NL
CYELLUATFISEITFRES
Year
s
82.5
76.7
65
90
85
80
75
70
ES FR IT SE FI AT LU EL CY NL
DE
BE PT EU27
UK
MT SI IE DK
CZ EE PL SK LT HU LV BG RO
Further information on page 5
Statistical spotlight Ageing population: projections 2010 - 2060 for the EU27
Author: Giulio Sabbati Contact: [email protected] 130690REV1 Page 3 of 6
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64.1%69%
2060
2010
HUMTIT
LT
ES
RO
SK
PL
ELLV
IEBG EE BE FR EU27
LU
CZ
PT
SI
FI
CY
UKDE
ATSEDKNL
Employment rate
80%
70%
60%
50%
EU27
Employment rate
2060
2010
LUATNL
CY
MT
DE
CZ
SI
DKRO
UKBE SE IT FI FR
EU27
PL
BG
HU
PT
EL
IESK
EELTLVES
Unemployment rate
25%20%15%10%5%
9.7%6.5%
EU27
Unemployment rate
2010
2060
6. Employment and unemployment rate (15-64) Data source: EC5. Labour force (15-64) Data source: EC
In 1 000s
2010 2060
IE 2 088 2 650
SK 2 710 1 872
PL 17 923 11 694RO 9 563 5 632
CZ 5 204 4 264
MT 174 152
NL 8 714 7 806
LT 1 624 1 072
SI 1 022 842
HU 4 285 3 288
ES 23 014 22 599
EE 672 487
LV 1 138 672
DK 2 884 2 863BG 3 476 2 079
EU27 238 763 214 366
FI 2 648 2 493
PT 5 270 4 397
EL 5 151 4 521
IT 24 718 24 161
AT 4 254 3 942
DE 41 306 28 572
CY 413 511LU 235 288
UK 30 976 35 359FR 29 616 31 413
BE 4 853 5 362SE 4 832 5 375
4. Old-age dependency ratio (65+/(15-64)) Data source: EC
In the EU27, in 2010 there were four people of working age for each person 65 years or older. In 2060 there will be
only two.
2010 2060SK
CY
DE
RO
MT
LT
HU
UK
LV
BG
ATBE
PT
EL
IE
PLLU
CZ
NL
SI
ES
EE
DK
FR
FI
SE
IT
EU27
Number of people of working age for each person 65 years or older
Statistical spotlight Ageing population: projections 2010 - 2060 for the EU27
Author: Giulio Sabbati Contact: [email protected] 130690REV1 Page 4 of 6
Further information on pages 5 and 6
Country codes: Austria (AT), Belgium (BE), Bulgaria (BG), Cyprus (CY), Czech Republic (CZ), Denmark (DK), Estonia (EE), Finland (FI), France (FR), Germany (DE), Greece (EL), Hungary (HU), Ireland (IE), Italy (IT), Latvia (LV), Lithuania (LT), Luxembourg (LU), Malta (MT), Netherlands (NL), Poland (PL), Portugal (PT), Romania (RO), Slovakia (SK), Slovenia (SI), Spain (ES), Sweden (SE), United Kingdom (UK), European Union (EU27). Extraction date: data were extracted in November 2013. At the moment of preparation data were available only for the EU27.
Notes
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Percentage of GDP
9. Public expenditure on long-term care Data source: EC
2010
2060
DK SE NL FI BE FR IT
EU27 AT D
E EL SI LT IE LU CZ ES HU LV MT PL RO BG EE PT SK CYUK0
2
4
6
8
10 cHANGE 2010-2060
2010
CYSKPTEEBGROPLMTLVHUESCZLUIELTSIELDEATEU27ITUKFRBEFINLSEDK
4.5%
3.9%
3.8%
2.5%
2.3%
2.2%
1.9%
1.8%
1.6%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
.8%
.8%
.8%
.7%
.7%
.7%
.6%
.5%
.5%
.3%
.3%
.2%
2.0%
8.2%
6.2%
7.7%
4.8% 4.9%
4.3%
3.0% 3.4%
2.8% 3.0%
2.6% 2.8%
2.4% 2.5% 2.8%
1.5% 1.6%
1.5%
1.1% 1.
7%1.
7%1.
4%0.
9%0.
9%0.
6% 0.6%
0.3%
2.7%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
10%
8. Public expenditure on healthcare Data source: EC
2010
2060
0
2
4
6
8
10 cHANGE 2010-2060
2010
CYROLVLUBGPLHULTEEMTFISISKBEESELITCZNLEU27UKPTIEATDKSEFRDE
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
DE FR SE DK AT IE UK
EU27 N
LCZ IT EL ES BE SK SI FI M
T EE LT HU PL BG LU LV RO CYPT
8.0%
8.0%
7.5%
7.4%
7.4%
7.3%
7.2%
7.1%
7.0%
6.9%
6.6%
6.5%
6.5%
6.3%
6.2%
6.1%
6.0%
5.4%
5.2%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
4.3%
3.8%
3.7%
3.7%
2.6%
7.2%
9.7%
9.6%
8.3% 8.6% 9.
3%8.
5%
8.4%
8.5%
8.2% 8.
8%7.
3% 7.6% 7.9%
7.3%
8.5%
7.4%
7.2%
8.6%
6.4%
5.8% 6.
5% 7.0%
5.0%
4.8%
4.3% 4.
8%3.
0%
8.5%
Percentage of GDP
7. Public pension expenditure
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Change 2010- 2060
LVPLEEIT
DKPTFRSEEL
BGUK
EU27ATDECZHU
FILT
NLES
ROIE
SKMTBESI
CYLU
Change in gross public pension expenditure over 2010-2060 (in % of GDP)
SK
CY
DE
RO
MT
LT
HU
UK
LV
BG
AT
BE
PT
EL
IE
PL
LU
CZ
NL
SI
ES
EE
DK
FR
FI
SE
IT
EU27
5.2
8.7
2.6
3.7
5.5
3.5
2.8
1.5
-3.8
1.1
2.0
5.6
0.2
1.0
4.1
-2.2
9.4
2.7
3.6
7.1
3.6
-1.1
-0.6
0.5
3.2
0.6
-0.9
1.6
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
In the EU27, public pension expenditure is forecast to increase by 1.6 p.p. from 11.3% to 12.9% of GDP.
Data source: EC
Change in percentage points (p.p.) of GDP 2010 - 2060
1% of EU GDP amounts to €131 billion.
In comparison, the EU’s budget commitments for
2014 total €143 billion.
Statistical spotlight Ageing population: projections 2010 - 2060 for the EU27
Author: Giulio Sabbati Contact: [email protected] 130690REV1 Page 5 of 6
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Further information
The graphs represent life expectancy at birth for the EU27 and individual Member States (MS). The line chart represents the change in life expect-ancy both for men and women in the period 2010-2060 for the EU27. The two bar charts show data for MS and EU27 for the year 2010 (blue chart) and 2060 (orange chart). The source of these data is a document from the European Commission (EC). An explanation of the life expectancy projec-tion for 2060 is given in the document at pages 25 and 47.
The two pyramid graphs represent the EU27 female and male population for the years 2010 and 2060. The percentage is the share that each age group (0-14, 15-64, 65-79 and 80+) represents of the total female and male population. Data source for the EU27 is Eurostat and in the metadata doc-ument) under “Statistical concepts and definitions” is the explanation of how Eurostat made the forecast for 2060. EU27 total population is reported in the table underneath. Other countries are reported for comparison purposes, using data from the United Nations (UN). For an explanation of the basis for the UN projection, see page 2 of this metadata document.
2. EU27 life expectancy at birth
1. EU27 population by age and sex
The graph shows the changes in median age from 2010 to 2060 for MS. Data for the EU27 represent the average of the 27 MS as calculated by the author. Median age is the age that divides a population into two numeri-cally equal groups; this means that half the people are younger than this age and half are older. The estimate for 2060 is based on the “Constant-fer-tility” assumption, for which an explanation can be found at page 35 of the following UN document. Some other major countries are also presented for comparison.
4. Old-age dependency ratio (65+/(15-64))
The graph represents the demographic old-age dependency ratio, or the ratio of people aged 65 or above relative to those aged 15-64. This indica-tor shows how many working-age people there are for every person aged over 65 years, that is how many people are needed to finance one old-age pensioner. In other words, in the EU27 for every person aged over 65 we have four working-age people in 2010 (the index is 26%) and two in 2060 (index is 52.5%).
3. Median age (years)
6. Employment and unemployment rate (15-64)
The two radar charts show the employment and unemployment rate for the 27 MS and EU in 2010 and 2060. Employed persons comprise persons aged 15-64 years who during a reference week worked for at least one hour for pay or profit or family gain or were temporarily absent. Unem-ployed persons comprise persons aged 15-64 years old who were not em-ployed, were currently available for work and were actively seeking work. Projections for the 2060 rates have been made by the EC based on trends in employment patterns of women, older workers and young people. Fur-ther information on the 2060 rates and what influences the changes can be found in the EC document at page 63.
The table shows the number of people aged 15-64 that make up the la-bour force for the years 2010 and 2060. The labour force, also called the ac-tive population, is the part of the population aged 15-64 that is employed or unemployed. The arrows in the middle show the direction of change in this value for each MS.
5. Labour force (15-64)
The graph gives the change in percentage points (p.p.) of public pension expenditure expressed as a percentage of GDP. “Public pensions are those
7. Public pension expenditure
Statistical spotlight Ageing population: projections 2010 - 2060 for the EU27
Author: Giulio Sabbati Contact: [email protected] Page 6 of 6
Extraction date: data were extracted in November 2013. This document provides a general statistical overview: Members requiring more detailed statistical information or a more in-depth analysis are welcome to contact the Library.Disclaimer and Copyright: This document is a summary of published information and does not necessarily represent the views of the author or the European Parliament. The document is exclusively addressed to the Members and staff of the European Parliament for their parliamentary work. Links to information sources within this document may be inaccessible from locations outside the European Parliament network. Copyright © European Parliament, 2013. All rights reserved. http://www.library.ep.ec; http://libraryeuroparl.wordpress.com
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Long-term care refers to services or assistance on a daily basis over a pe-riod of time for people who are not independent. The services may include supported living arrangements or care in a nursing home or at home.The graph shows the value of this expenditure in terms of GDP for the year 2010 (blue bar) and 2060 (red bar). For an explanation on how the projec-tion has been arrived at, see page 195 of the EC document. The following table gives the values for expenditure on long-term care for the countries not shown in the graph:
BG EE PT SK CY2010 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
9. Public expenditure on long-term care
schemes that are statutory and that the general government sector ad-ministers. Public pension schemes affect public finances as they are con-sidered to belong to the general government sector in the national ac-count system”. More explanation of the pension projection is provided in the EC document at page 88.For example, the EU27 is facing an increase of 1.6 p.p. in spending on pub-lic pensions as a share of GDP; that means expenditure will rise from 11.3% of GDP in 2010 to 12.9% in 2060.The calculation of 1% of GDP is based on 2013 Eurostat data. EU budget data come from the adopted 2014 budget.
The clustered bar chart shows public expenditure in terms of GDP for the year 2010 (blue) and 2060 (red). For example, in the EU27 public expendi-ture on healthcare is at 7.1% of GDP in 2010; it will increase by 1.4 p.p. by 2060, reaching a level of 8.5% of GDP.
8. Public expenditure on healthcare
For an explanation of how this change has been calculated see page 157 of the EC document.
