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www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S.
For Washington Association of Money Managers April 18, 2013 | Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, Administrator
U.S. Shale Gas
2 Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013
An average well in shale gas and other continuous resource plays has steep decline curves
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013 3
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0 5 10 15 20
Haynesville
Eagle Ford
Woodford
Marcellus
Fayetteville
million cubic feet per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
1
0%
50%
100%
0 5 10 15 20
Cumulative production = EUR
Oil production by monthly vintage of wells in the Williston Basin – production grows with continued drilling
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013 4
million barrels per day
Source: DrillingInfo history through December 2012, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2013 forecast
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
Domestic production of shale gas has grown dramatically over the past few years
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013 5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Rest of US
Marcellus (PA and WV)
Haynesville (LA and TX)
Eagle Ford (TX)
Bakken (ND)
Woodford (OK)
Fayetteville (AR)
Barnett (TX)
Antrim (MI, IN, and OH)
shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day
Sources: LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of March 2013 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play.
Shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 to reach half of U.S. output
6
U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Associated with oil Coalbed methane
Tight gas
Shale gas
Alaska
Non-associated onshore
Non-associated offshore
Projections History 2011
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
Projections History
Industrial
Electric power
Commercial
Residential
Transportation
33%
14%
6%
32%
12%
33%
19%
3%
31%
13%
*Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. **Includes pipeline fuel.
Gas to liquids 2%
Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Growth of natural gas in transportation, excluding pipeline use, led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel)… marine and rail to come?
8
U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu
Note: Gas to liquids includes heat, power, and losses. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
Light-duty vehicles
2011 History Projections
95% 52%
23% 25%
26%
67%
5% 2%
Buses
Freight trucks
Gas to liquids
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013 9
U.S. natural gas imports and exports
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
trillion cubic feet
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2020 2030 2040 -4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2020 2030 2040
Reference case High resource case
Exports to Mexico
Exports to Canada
Lower 48 states LNG exports
Alaska LNG exports
Imports from Canada
LNG imports
Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020
10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
Projections History 2011
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net imports
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013
U.S. Tight Oil
11 Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013
Domestic production of tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years
12
tight oil production for select plays million barrels per day
Source: Drilling Info (formerly HPDI), Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through December 2012
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Eagleford (TX) Bakken (ND & MT) Spraberry (TX Permian) Wolfcamp (TX Permian) Bonespring (TX Permian) Yeso (TX Permian) Glorieta (TX Permian) Niobrara_Codell (CO, WY) Monterey (CA) Granite Wash (TX & OK) Woodford (OK) Austin Chalk (TX & LA) Barnett (TX)
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013 13
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
U.S. tight oil production leads growth in domestic production
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 and Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2013
million barrels per day
Projections History 2011
Alaska
Tight oil
Other lower 48 states onshore
Lower 48 states offshore
STEO April 2013 U.S. crude oil projection
Projections History 2011
Alaska
Tight oil
Other lower 48 states onshore
Lower 48 states offshore
Reference case High resource case
Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption is lower primarily due to more stringent CAFE standards
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013 14
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
light-duty vehicle liquids consumption million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
AEO2012
AEO2013
U.S. dependence on imported liquids depends on both supply and demand
15
U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 and Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net imports 37%
Projections History
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013
Petroleum Exports
-8%
32% STEO forecast for 2014
2014
40%
2012
Global tight oil production comparisons
16
Source: Preliminary International Energy Outlook 2013 and BP Energy Outlook 2030, www.bp.com/energyoutlook
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2010 2020 2030
Australia China Russia Argentina Mexico Canada United States
million barrels per day
BP Energy Outlook 2030 IEO2013 DRAFT
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013
Uncertainties that could slow global growth of shale gas and tight oil
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013 17
• Resource quantities and distribution
• Surface vs. mineral rights
• Risk appetite of industry participants
• Infrastructure and technology
• Environmental constraints
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1949 1956 1963 1970 1977 1984 1991 1998 2005 2012
U.S. petroleum product exports exceeded imports in 2011 for first time in over six decades
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013 18
annual U.S. net imports of total petroleum products, 1949 – 2012 million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly and Annual Energy Review
net product exporter
exports
imports
net imports
U.S. and Saudi Arabian crude oil and petroleum liquids production
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013 19
million barrels per day
Note: Volumes for 2012 and 2013 are projected. Refinery gain for Saudi Arabia is estimated as one half of U.S. refinery gain on a percentage basis
Source: EIA, This Week in Petroleum, Dec 19, 2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
refinery processing gain
other liquids
natural gas liquids
crude oil
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013 20
• Transforming data operations Essential to radically improve our data collection and management processes. EIA
must improve business processes, employing common, maintainable IT systems and platforms and incorporating smarter ways of using third-party data
• Increasing analytical impact A key part of our mission is to bring context and meaning to the information we convey.
To do this, we must modernize our core modeling tools to improve our energy outlooks and increase the availability of resources for analyses beyond our current product slate
• Improving the customer experience EIA must ensure that its customers have access to critical information how and when
they need it. We need to re-imagine the way we disseminate our data and analysis and leverage technology to meet evolving customer needs
• Enabling our mission To hire, motivate, and retain the best and brightest. We need to give them the
technological and developmental tools they need to grow and succeed, and maintain an environmental of openness and collaboration
• Finding and adapting the best of what others are doing Both inside and outside of government
EIA’s strategic priorities
Increasing demand for current market analysis from EIA
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013 21
• Gas markets – LNG exports and impact on domestic prices over time
• Oil and gas production data (federal lands vs. rest), forecasts, and reserves
• Crude and product markets, refining and midstream changes – Types of refining capacity in different regions (crude preferences)
– Rail transportation
– Jones Act tanker availability
– Refinery availability and outage analysis including regional price impacts
– Exports of refined products and impact on domestic prices
– Disposition of increased domestic tight light crude production
• Renewable Fuels Standard / RINS / cellulosic ethanol
• Growth of natural gas use in transportation
• International disruptions and ongoing sanctions-related analyses
Thomas Fanning Chairman, President and CEO
Southern Company
Aldo Flores-Quiroga Secretary General
International Energy Forum
Hans Rosling Chairman
Gapminder
Keynote Speakers
For more information
Adam Sieminski , WAMM, April 18, 2013 23
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo
Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly
Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual