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Status of the RCM climate change simulations. ERA40 driven MPIM-RCM. ERA40 driven MPIM-RCM. Max 3-day precip (mm) MPIM RCM and ECA Data. Evaluation of RCM simulations with HOAPS satellite data. Biases of all ERA40 and GCM driven RCM simulations over sea investigated – see poster 27 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Status of the RCM climate change simulations
ERA40 driven MPIM-RCM
ERA40 driven MPIM-RCM
Max 3-day precip (mm) MPIM RCM and ECA Data
Evaluation of RCM simulations with HOAPS satellite data
Biases of all ERA40 and GCM driven RCM simulations over sea investigated – see poster 27Liquid + ice water, water vapour, precipitation, net longwave radiation, sensible and latent heat flux.
All results soon on RT3 webpage
From RT3:
● Validated set of RCMs
● Weights for RCMs
● Suggestions how to use the weights for climate change runs
RT2B1 GCM-RCM Matrix
Global modelRegional model
METO-HC MPIMET IPSL CNRM NERSC CGCM3Total number
METO-HC 1950-2100*** 1950-2100 4MPIMET 1950-2100 1950-2050* 2
CNRM 1950-2050 1
DMI 1950-2050* 1950-2100 2ETH 1950-2050 1KNMI 1950-2100 1ICTP 1950-2100 1
SMHI 1950-2050*1950-2050* (50km)
1950-2100 3
UCLM 1950-2050 1
C4I 1950-2100*1950-2050*(A2)
2
GKSS** 1950-2050* 1Met.No** 1950-2050* 1CHMI** 1950-2050* 1OURANOS** 1950-2050* 1Total (1950-2050)
7 7 2 3 2 1 22
*: non-contractual runs**: affiliated partners without obligations***: 3 simulations with the perturbed physics METO-HC GCM
Institute Runs completed resp. expected date
Runs transferred to the RCM database resp. expected date
METO-HC HC pert. phys. (3 runs): completed
MPI-M Forcing:?
Transferred
End 2008 (latest Aug. 2009)MPI-M MPI-M Forcing: completed Transferred
CNRM Completed Transferred
DMI CNRM Forcing:? Partly
ETH Completed Transferred
KNMI Completed Transferred
ICTP Completed Transferred
SMHI NERSC Forcing: Completed ?
UCLM Completed Transferred
Status of obligatory 25km scenario simulations
The RT2B1 Quick-Look Analysis
Objectives of the ”Quick look analysis”:
To monitor the scenario simulations progress and quality of the RT2B RCM scenario simulations
To provide very fast first information on the results of the RCM scenarios
The quick look analysis is focusing on trends and variability
Variables: 2m Temperature, Precipitation, EvaporationAreas: 8 Prudence Regions
Yearly and Seasonal meansAnnual cycle for each decade
The „Quick-Look“ Analysis has recently been extended: Separate land and water driving GCM‘s Inclusion of the gridded RT5 observational dataset
Plots on the ENSEMBLES RT3 webpage will be updated soon!
MPIM RCM, T and P changes for DJF
MPIM RCM, T and P changes for JJA
JJA mean warming wrt 1961-1990
Erich Fischer (2008)
4 ENSEMBLES RCMs: MPI, ETH, KNMI, C4I 8 PRU RCMs
IAC ETH
Daily temperature variability in JJA wrt 1961-1990
Erich Fischer (2008)
4 ENSEMBLES RCMs: MPI, ETH, KNMI, C4I 8 PRU RCMs
IAC ETH
JJA diurnal temperature range wrt 1961-1990
Erich Fischer (2008)
4 ENSEMBLES RCMs: MPI, ETH, KNMI, C4I 8 PRU RCMs
IAC ETH
From RT2B1:
Set of transient simulations for SRES A1B scenario for 1950 to 2050 (22), some extended until 2100 (10)
Data at DMI data base
In RT2B:
From RT2B1 and RT3:
matrix with RCM data and RCM weights available (incl suggestion for their use)
Joint pdfs will be calculated for use in RT6 …
Assessment of impacts through eg the calculation of indices
Assessment of changes in climate, extremes Assessment of changes in climate, extremes and associated sectoral impacts using high and associated sectoral impacts using high
resolution regional climate model scenarios for resolution regional climate model scenarios for the Eastern Mediterraneanthe Eastern Mediterranean
Giannakopoulos C.(1), E. Kostopoulou(1), K.Tolika(2), C.Anagnostopoulou(2), P.Maheras(2), K.Tziotziou(1)
(1) Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Greece
(2) Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece
MethodMethod
Within the framework of the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project several RCMs runs have been produced at a high horizontal resolution (25km).
The control run represents the base period 1961-1990 and is used here as reference for comparison with future predictions for periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 based on A1B SRES scenario
Aim is to examine climatic changes in both mean (temperature, precipitation) and extremes (number of heat wave days, number of tropical nights, drought length) in order to identify areas that are likely to undergo large amount of climate change
Summer Maximum temperatures, Summer Maximum temperatures, KNMI RCMKNMI RCM
In summer, maximum temperatures increase by 1.8-2.2oCfor the 2021-2050 simulation and by 4-6oCfor 2071-2100
Greece and North Africa will have a more intense heating during 2021-2050 whereas Turkey will have equally intense
heating during both periods
No of tropical nights : Tmin>20No of tropical nights : Tmin>20ooC C KNMI RCMKNMI RCM
Tropical nights increase more in costal areas
1-2 more months with warm nights around the islands and North Africa for 2021-2050
2.5-3 more months with warm nights around the islands and North Africa for 2021-2050
Dry spell length Dry spell length KNMI RCMKNMI RCM
for the 2021-2050 simulation increases of about 7% (of about 10 days more) are apparent
for the 2071-2100 the increase varies between 12% (about 15 days more) in the east part and 25% (about 1 month more) in
the west part of the island.