Sterlite, 30th January 2013

7/29/2019 Sterlite, 30th January 2013

1/13

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

EBITDA 2,327 2,310 0.7 2,527 (7.9)

% margin 21.8 22.5 (78)bp 22.9 (115)bp

Source: Company, Angel Research

Sterlite Industries (Sterlite) reported disappointing 3QFY2013 results. Both, the

top-line as well as the net profit were lower than expected, mainly due to

lower-than-expected performance from the Copper segment.

The companys net

sales growth was mainly driven by increase in Aluminium and Zinc segment

revenues. Aluminium and Zinc segment revenues grew 3.9% and 11.4% yoy to

`832cr and `4,182cr, respectively.

On the operating front, Sterlites EBITDA

was flat yoy at `2,327cr; EBITDA margin was at 21.8% (below our estimate of

22.8%) as higher profitability from other segments was offset by lower profitability

from Copper and Power segments. Copper segments profitability was below our

estimate as its EBIT declined 50.8% yoy due to lower Tc/Rc charges and lower

by-product realizations. The adjusted net profit increased by 2.7% yoy to

`1,254cr, which was below our estimate of `1,524cr.

Balco has received stage-II forest

clearance for its coal mine which will result in significant cost savings once it is

operational. Sterlite expects to commence production from 1QFY2014 which we

feel is being optimistic considering that the land acquisition process and signing of

mining lease could potentially delay the production.

We expect Sterlite to benefit from the expansion of

Zinc-Lead smelting capacity during FY2013-14 although its Aluminium segments

profitability is expected to remain under pressure. Considering the ongoing process

of group restructuring by the promoter, Vedanta Resources, the valuation of Sterlite

will mirror the valuation of the consolidated company - Sesa Sterlite. On account of

ban on mining in Goa, we had drastically cut Sesa Goas iron ore volume estimatesfor FY2014.

% chg 24.2 35.3 4.2 6.9

% chg 34.7 (4.3) 13.7 9.0

OPM (%) 26.5 24.0 22.8 23.8

P/E(x) 7.9 7.3 6.9 6.4

P/BV(x) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7

RoE(%) 12.9 11.0 11.3 11.2

RoCE(%) 11.5 11.3 9.5 9.6

EV/Sales (x) 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.2 3.5 3.4 2.9


CMP `113

Target Price -

Investment Period 12 months

Stock Info

Sector

Net Debt (`cr) (9,000)

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 53.3

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 9.4

FII / NRIs / OCBs 27.4

Indian Public / Others 9.9

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 7.3 16.0 22.2

STLT 14.9 (5.7) (39.8)

52 Week High / Low 138/89

Base Metals

Market Cap (` cr) 38,059

Beta 1.4

Avg. Daily Volume 655,898

Face Value (`) 1

BSE Sensex 19,991

Nifty 6,050

Reuters Code STRL.BO

STLT@IN

Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6821

[email protected]

Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6841

[email protected]

Performance Highlights

3QFY2013 Result Update | Base Metals

January 29, 2013


2/13

Sterlite Industries | 3QFY2013 Result Update

January 29, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:3QFY2013 Performance (Consolidated)

- Consumption of Raw Material 5,023 4,905 2.4 5,105 (1.6) 15,163 14,193 6.8(% of Net Sales) 47.0 47.9 46.3 46.9 47.0

- Power& Fuel 1,008 1,000 0.7 1,216 (17.1) 3,339 2,804 19.1

(% of Net Sales) 9.4 9.8 11.0 10.3 9.3

- Staff Costs 475 413 15.0 451 5.2 1,376 1,191 15.6

(% of Net Sales) 4.4 4.0 4.1 4.3 3.9

- Other expenses 1,906 1,678 13.6 1,803 5.7 5,444 4,690 16.1

(% of Net Sales) 17.8 16.4 16.4 16.8 15.5

(% of Net Sales) 78.7 78.0 77.8 78.4 75.7

Other operating Income 45 57 (21.5) 74 (38.8) 176 156 12.7

EBITDA margin (%) 21.8 22.5 22.9 22.2 24.8

Interest 227 201 13.1 178 27.6 646 612 5.6

Depreciation 538 461 16.7 522 3.1 1,578 1,327 18.9

Other Income 859 807 6.4 848 1.3 2,655 2,450 8.4

Exceptional Items (63) (307) 302 83 (41) (302.4)

(% of Net Sales) 22.1 21.0 26.2 23.3 24.6

Tax 356 505 (29.6) 511 (30.4) 1,200 1,624 (26.1)

(% of PBT) 15.1 23.4 17.7 15.9 21.8

Minority Interest 585 466 25.6 579.3 1,742 1,611 8.1

Share of profit/(loss) in associate (226) (264) (60.7) (453) (612) (25.9)

Net income margin (%) 11.1 8.9 15.8 12.8 11.8


Exhibit 2:3QFY2013 Actual vs Angel estimates

Net sales 10,692 11,288 (5.3)

EBITDA 2,327 2,531 (8.1)

EBITDA margin (%) 21.8 22.8 (104)bp

Adj. net profit 1,254 1,524 (17.7)



3/13


January 29, 2013 3

Sterlite reported disappointing 3QFY2013 results. Both, the top-line as well as net

profit were lower than expected, mainly due to lower-than-expected performance

from the Copper segment. The companys net sales grew 4.3% yoy to `10,692cr.

The growth was mainly driven by increase in Aluminium and Zinc segment

revenues. Aluminium and Zinc segment revenues grew 3.9% and 11.4% yoy to

`832cr and `4,182cr, respectively. On the operating front, Sterlites EBITDA was

flat yoy at `2,327cr; EBITDA margin was at 21.8% (below our estimate of 22.8%)

as higher profitability from other segments was offset by lower profitability from

Copper and Power segments. Copper segments profitability was below our

estimate as its EBIT declined 50.8% yoy due to lower Tc/Rc charges and lower

by-product realizations. The company reported an exceptional item relating to

forex loss of `63cr, compared to a forex loss of `307cr in 3QFY2012. The interest

costs during the quarter rose by 13.1% yoy to`

227cr and other income grew by6.4% yoy to `859cr. However, tax rate decreased to 15.1% compared to 23.4% in

3QFY2012, thereby leading the adjusted net profit to increase by 2.7% yoy to

`1,254cr, which was below our estimate of `1,524cr. The reported net profit

increased 30.4% yoy to `1,191cr.

During 3QFY2012, copper cathode production at the Tuticorin smelter increased

9.0% yoy to 92k tonne. Metal mined from the Australian mines increased by 8.0%yoy to 6k tonne. Copper segment revenues increased marginally by 1.0% yoy to

`5,164cr during the quarter.

Copper Tc/Rcs decreased by 22.0% yoy to USc12.4/lb. The company reported cost

of production of USc10.8lb in 3QFY2013 compared to USc2.4/lb in 3QFY2012.

The Copper business had an exceptional item of `92cr related to forex loss.

Consequently, the Copper segments PAT decreased by 58.0% yoy to `147cr in

3QFY2013. The adjusted PAT of the segment, excluding the exceptional item,

decreased by 49.0% to `239cr during the quarter.


4/13


January 29, 2013 4

Exhibit 3:Copper segments EBIT stood at `160cr


Aluminium segment EBIT improves to `9cr

During the quarter, Balcos Aluminium production was flat at 62kt and its revenue

increased by 4.0% yoy to `832cr manly due to higher premium. The cost of

production of Aluminium at Balco increased by 10.0% yoy to `1,08,000/tonne on

account of higher coal prices. Coal prices were higher due to higher alumina costs

and tapering of coal linkages. However, the Aluminium segment posted a positive

EBIT of `9cr in 3QFY2013 mainly because of a better product mix.

Sterlites associate, Vedanta Aluminium also reported a loss of `766cr in2QFY2013 (Sterlites share of loss `226cr) compared to loss of `893cr in

3QFY2012. The lower loss in 3QFY2013 was mainly due to higher production

and better premiums.

Exhibit 4:Aluminium segments EBIT improves to `9cr


215188

158

194

298 291 309 326

273

201

277

160

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(%)

(`cr)

EBIT (LHS) EBIT margins (RHS)

163

50

126 119

195

159

21(23)

234

43

9

(5.0)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(%

)

(`c

r)



5/13


January 29, 2013 5

Zinc-Lead segments EBIT declines by 8.4% yoy

Refined Zinc production for 3QFY2013 declined by 10.0% yoy to 171kt tonne.

Refined Lead production grew by 11.0% to 32kt and refined silver production

increased by 103.0% to 117k tonne during the quarter.

The cost of production for Zinc (excluding royalty) stood at US$829/tonne in

3QFY2013 compared to US$785/tonne in 3QFY2012. Overall, the EBIT of the

Zinc-Lead segment (including international Zinc business) increased by 10.0% yoy

to `1,634cr.

Exhibit 5:Zinc segments EBIT stood at `1,634cr


Balcos coal block clears another milestone

Balco has received stage-II forest clearance for its coal mine which will result in

significant cost savings once it is operational. Sterlite expects to commence

production from 1QFY2014 which we feel is being optimistic, considering that the

land acquisition process and signing of mining lease could potentially delay the

production.

1,447

9051,003

1,430

2,185

1,8131,6501,486

1,705

1,4021,512

1,634

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(%)

(`cr)



6/13


January 29, 2013 6

Investment rationale

Sterlite had commissioned a 100ktpa Lead

smelter at Rajpura Dariba in 1QFY2012, the full benefits of which will be

witnessed in FY2013. Moreover, expansion at the Silver-rich Sindesur Khurd mine

is expected to result in robust Lead and Silver sales volume growth in FY2013 and

FY2014.

During 2QFY2013, the Goa

government had imposed a ban on iron ore mining in Goa until further review.

Later, Ministry of Environment and Forest Clearances (MOEF) also suspended

environment clearances to all functional mining leases in Goa. Sesa Goa operated

several mines in the region with an annual production of 12mn tonne. While we

believe the ban could be temporary, there are chances of iron ore production cap

by the government/MOEF which could affect Sesas production going forward. This

is likely to be a key overhang on the stock in our view.

Outlook and Valuation

We expect Sterlite to benefit from the expansion of Zinc-Lead smelting capacity

during FY2014-15. While we expect the Aluminium segments profitability to

remain under pressure, the current stock price factors these concerns.

Considering the ongoing process of group restructuring by the promoter, Vedanta

Resources, the valuation of Sterlite will mirror the valuation of the consolidated

company - Sesa Sterlite.

Exhibit 6:SOTP valuation of Sterlite (` cr)

Sterlite Industries EV/EBIDTA 4.0 5,364 100% 5,364

Balco EV/EBIDTA 4.0 1,340 51% 683

Vedanta Aluminium EV/EBIDTA 4.0 (10,208) 100% (10,208)

Hindustan Zinc (20% holding company discount) EV/EBIDTA 5.0 62,989 65% 28,616

Sterlite Energy FCFE 1.0 331 100% 331

Tasmania Copper mines P/BV 1.0 1,009 100% 1,009

International Zinc EV/EBIDTA 4.0 6,484 100% 6,484

MALCO BV 100% 1,712

Sesa Goa EV/EBIDTA 4.0 595 100% 595

Cairn India (20% holding company discount) DCF 72,847 59% 29,984

Source: Angel Research


7/13


January 29, 2013 7

Exhibit 7:EPS Angel forecast vs consensus

FY2013E 16.3 17 (4.0)

FY2014E 17.8 19.3 (7.8)Source: Angel Research

Exhibit 8:EV/EBITDA band

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 9:P/E band


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Feb-07Sep-07Apr-08Nov-08Jun-09 Jan-10Aug-10Mar-11Oct-11May-12Dec-12

(`cr)

2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x 10.0x

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Feb-07 Sep-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 Jun-09 Jan-10 Aug-10Mar-11 Oct-11May-12 Dec-12

(`)

4.0x 8.0x 12.0x 16.0x


8/13


January 29, 2013 8

Exhibit 10:P/BV band


Exhibit 11:Recommendation summary

Hindalco 115 - Neutral 22,179 - 7.7 7.4 0.6 0.6 7.1 6.3 8.8 8.4 5.8 5.6

Nalco 47 44 Reduce 12,525 (5) 23.7 14.8 1.0 1.0 13.0 8.1 4.3 6.8 1.4 4.6

HZL 127 149 Buy 54,020 17 8.6 7.8 1.7 1.4 5.1 3.7 21.1 19.8 17.7 17.7

Source: Angel Research

Company background

Sterlite is India's largest non-ferrous metals and mining company. The company

produces Zinc, Lead and Silver through its 65%-owned subsidiary, Hindustan Zinc

(HZL) which has a Zinc production capacity of 1.1mn tonne. HZL contributes

~80% to Sterlites consolidated EBITDA. Sterlite also produces Aluminium (capacity

- 0.7mn tonne). It also has world-class Copper smelting and refining operations

(capacity - 0.4mn tonne). In February 2011, Sterlite, through its wholly owned

subsidiary, Sterlite Infra, acquired 100% stake in Namibian Skorpian Mines

(Skorpian) for a cash consideration of US$707mn. Skorpion mines has reservesand resources of 8.7mn tonne of Zinc and Lead. During January 2012, Vedanta

Resources (Sesa Goas and Sterlites promoters) announced a plan to merge Sesa

Goa with Sterlite. The merger has been approved by the shareholders of both the

companies and it is currently awaiting various court approvals.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Feb-07 Sep-07 Apr-08Nov-08 Jun-09 Jan-10 Aug-10Mar-11 Oct-11May-12Dec-12

(`)

0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x


9/13


January 29, 2013 9

Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)

Gross sales 22,774 25,614 32,276 43,116 46,620 49,852

Less: Excise duty 1,629 1,204 1,847 1,937 3,730 3,988

Other operating income - 182 - - - -

% chg (14.4) 16.7 23.3 35.3 4.2 6.9

Total Expenditure 16,440 18,207 22,379 31,316 33,107 34,928

Net Raw Materials 10,634 12,139 14,370 18,844 20,759 22,106

Other Mfg costs 5,050 5,214 6,877 10,859 10,546 10,896

Personnel 756 854 1,132 1,612 1,801 1,926

Other - - - - - -

% chg (40.2) 37.6 24.3 22.5 (0.8) 11.8

(% of Net Sales) 22.2 26.4 26.5 24.0 22.8 23.8

Depreciation& Amortisation 701 750 1,030 1,830 2,143 2,483

% chg (45.0) 43.0 22.6 14.4 (4.9) 10.6

(% of Net Sales) 18.9 23.2 23.1 19.5 17.8 18.4

Interest & other Charges 397 292 351 852 883 1,006

Other Income 2,154 1,506 2,522 3,163 3,517 3,761

(% of PBT) 37.4 21.7 27.4 30.6 34.2 33.6

Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -

% chg (32.4) 20.5 32.4 12.6 (0.7) 9.1

Extraordinary Inc/(Expense) 55 (297) (57) (473) - -

Tax 855 1,233 1,812 2,111 1,850 2,466

(% of PBT) 14.7 18.6 19.8 21.4 18.0 22.0

Add: Share of earnings of asso. (154) 59 (285) (772) (579) (490)

Less: Minority interest (MI) 1,267 1,724 1,995 2,161 2,359 2,273

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -

% chg (21.3) 14.1 27.7 2.7 5.0 9.0

(% of Net Sales) 16.5 16.1 16.7 12.7 12.8 13.0

% chg (21.3) (3.8) 20.8 8.5 5.0 9.0

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with

previous year numbers


10/13


January 29, 2013 10

Balance Sheet (Consolidated)

Equity Share Capital 142 168 336 336 336 336Reserves& Surplus 25,471 36,844 41,099 45,720 50,565 55,844

Share Warrants - - - - - -

Minority Interest 6,813 8,410 10,291 12,199 14,558 16,831

Total Loans 7,014 9,260 10,948 14,473 14,973 15,473

Deferred Tax Liability 1,408 1,552 2,179 2,208 2,208 2,208

Other Long term liabilities - - 3,530 5,728 5,728 5,728

Long term Provisions - - 8,299 8,930 8,930 8,930

Gross Block 15,387 18,179 31,125 37,226 43,726 51,726

Less: Acc. Depreciation 5,155 5,913 9,727 11,755 13,898 16,380

Capital Work-in-Progress 6,979 11,084 9,919 12,092 10,092 8,092

Goodwill - - - - - -

Investments 16,206 20,304 12,904 17,623 17,623 17,623

Long term loans and adv. - - 33,918 43,442 43,442 43,442

Other Non Current Assets - - 6,051 6,806 6,806 6,806

Deferred tax assets - - 52 - - -

Cash 5,505 3,338 9,502 8,539 12,527 16,751

Loans & Advances 2,715 10,499 9,575 9,964 9,964 9,964

Other 3,416 3,674 7,147 6,316 7,308 7,815

Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -




11/13


January 29, 2013 11

Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)

Profit before tax 5,816 6,460 9,133 9,872 10,275 11,208

Depreciation 701 750 1,030 1,830 2,143 2,483Change in Working Capital 1,244 (7,316) (319) 552 (1,360) (310)

Others (1,421) (1,483) (3,708) (5,464) - -

Direct taxes paid 855 1,233 1,735 2,383 1,850 2,466

Share of loss from Asso. (285) (772) (579) (490)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (5,340) (6,898) 5,349 7,396 (4,500) (6,000)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments 88 (4,098.3) 7,553 805 - -

(Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and adv. - - - - - -

Others - - (9,696) (1,320) - -

Issue of Equity - 7,653 - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 1,939 2,246 2,563 3,046 500 500

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 248 449 (502) (1,311) (642) (700)

Others (1,128) (2,201) (457) (1,073) - -

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 3,051 (2,167) 1,698 (460) 3,987 4,225




12/13


January 29, 2013 12

Key Ratios

P/E (on FDEPS) 9.2 9.5 7.9 7.3 6.9 6.4P/CEPS 7.6 8.0 6.2 5.4 5.0 4.5

P/BV 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7

Dividend yield (%) 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8

EV/Sales 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7

EV/EBITDA 5.1 5.1 4.2 3.5 3.4 2.9

EV / Total Assets 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3

EPS (Basic) 12.3 11.9 15.0 14.4 16.3 17.8

EPS (fully diluted) 12.3 11.9 14.3 15.5 16.3 17.8

Cash EPS 14.8 14.1 18.2 21.0 22.7 25.2

DPS 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1

Book Value 90.4 110.1 123.3 137.0 151.4 167.1

EBIT margin 18.9 23.2 23.1 19.5 17.8 18.4

Tax retention ratio (%) 85.3 81.4 80.2 78.6 82.0 78.0

Asset turnover (x) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

ROIC (Post-tax) 12.0 11.2 12.1 11.3 10.2 9.8

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 5.6 2.9 2.8 5.3 4.9 -

Leverage (x) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -

Operating ROE 12.2 12.2 12.2 11.9 10.4 9.8

ROCE (Pre-tax) 10.6 11.8 11.5 11.3 9.5 9.6

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 13.9 16.3 15.9 15.7 13.0 13.1

ROE 14.6 12.7 13.0 11.9 11.3 11.2

Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0

Inventory / Sales (days) 50 41 49 43 43 43

Receivables (days) 15 8 19 19 19 19

Payables (days) 41 53 52 39 39 39

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 44 83 105 71 71 73

Net debt to equity 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 (0.0)

Net debt to EBITDA 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.2 (0.1)

Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 10.1 19.6 20.0 9.4 8.7 8.4

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence some ratios may not be

comparable with previous year ratios


13/13


J 29 2013 13

Disclosure of Interest Statement Sterlite Industries

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Research Team Tel: 022 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make

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risks of such an investment.

Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make

investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this

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Documents

Sterlite, 30th January 2013