Multiple Benefits of Short

Lived Climate Pollutant

Mitigation for Latin America

and the Caribbean

Johan C.I. Kuylenstierna Director, Stockholm Environment Institute York Centre

johan.kuylenstiernaUK@sei-international.org

UNEP/WMO Integrated

Assessment of Black

Carbon and

Tropospheric Ozone

Johan Kuylenstierna, Stockholm

Environment Institute, SEI, Scientific

Coordinator and lead author

Drew Shindell, NASA-GISS, Chair;

Vice-Chairs: Frank Raes, Joint

Research Centre, EC; V. Ramanathan,

Scripps Institution of Oceanography;

Kim Oanh, AIT; Luis Cifuentes,

Catholic University of Chile

Coordinating lead authors: David

Streets, Argonne National Laboratory;

David Fowler, CEH; Lisa Emberson,

SEI; Martin Williams, Kings College

London

50 Contributors, over 100 reviewers

UNEP/WMO Coordinators: Volodymyr

Demkine, UNEP / Liisa Jalkanen, WMO

Climate and Clean Air Coalition to reduce

Short-Lived Climate Pollutants

There is a lot of scientific and political interest – Why?

What are short-lived climate pollutants?

Multiple benefits of reducing SLCPs:

• Reduce air pollution - Protect health and crops

• Slow down near-term global warming, reduce

regional impacts of climate change

• Relatively short-lived in the atmosphere

• Act as air pollutants (except HFCs)

• One of the causes of global warming

Black carbon

Methane

Tropospheric ozone

some Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs )

Stratospheric O3

deposition

O3

strato

sp

he

re

tro

po

sp

he

re

8 – 15 km

chemical destruction

NOX CH4 CO VOCs

chemical production

Tropospheric Ozone – formed from precursor emissions

Lifetimes in the atmosphere

HFCs Average of mix: 15 years

Air pollution: unfinished business on the sustainable development agenda

• about3 billion people cook and heat using open fires

• around 2 million people die each year prematurely from

illness attributable to indoor air pollution Source: WHO statistics

About 1.2 –Urban (3.7 – urban plus rural) million premature

deaths each year due to outside air pollution.

Outdoor air pollution

Indoor air pollution

Progress towards global

environmental goals

(UNEP GEO-5)

“little or no progress”

“Indoor air pollution from particulate matter continues to

have major health impacts, particularly on women and

children.”

“Some progress” : Despite some

progress, outdoor air pollution

continues to have serious impacts on

the environment & human health.

Ground level ozone is increasing

Source: UNEP GEO-5, HTAP

Due to methane

and other

precursors

Reducing ground level ozone:

• protects public health

• reduces ozone damage to crops

Impact of the Tropospheric Ozone on Crop yields

Exposure of wheat to ozone in Pakistan

Filtered „Clean‟ air Air with

ambient

ozone

Global and regional temperature changes relative to

2009 projected under the Assessment reference

scenario for different global regions

LAC vulnerable to warming

Black carbon measures

• addressing emissions from incomplete

combustion

- BC, OC, methane, CO, NMVOCs

Methane measures

• reducing methane emissions

A package of 16 measures can substantially reduce

emissions and achieve multiple benefits

• No technical breakthroughs

• These measures already implemented in many countries

• Cost-effective

• Mitigation measures ranked by net climate impact (using GWP) of emission

changes

• Considering CO, CH4, BC, OC, SO2, NOX, NMVOCs, and CO2

• Picked the top measures – about 90% of warming benefit

The measures aiming at reducing methane emissions

Intermittent aeration -paddy Recovery from oil and gas

Recovery from livestock manure /change feed Recovery from landfill

Recovery from wastewater

Coal mine methane capture Reducing pipeline leakage

The measures aiming to reduce black carbon

emissions

Improved biomass stoves Modern coke ovens Remove big smokers / DPF

Cooking with clean fuel

Pellet biomass heating stoves

Improved brick kilns

Coal briquettes replacing coal Reduce agricultural burning Reduce flaring

Effect of measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to

Reference emissions in 2030

9 BC measures fully implemented in 2030 7 Methane measures fully implemented in 2030

Result for Global Temperature Change:

CO2 and SLCP measures are complementary strategies

Source: UNEP/WMO (2011). Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and

Tropospheric Ozone. UNEP, Nairobi

The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures

The Impact of Methane measures implemented in LAC on global

temperatures

The share of global temperature reduction from black carbon measures

The Impact of BC measures implemented in LAC on global temperatures

Regional Warming Benefits Comparison of regional mean warming over land (˚C) - change in 2070

compared with 2005 for the reference scenario and the SLCP

measures scenario.

Benefits of Reduced Warming rate in Latin America and

the Caribbean

Halving the rate of near term warming in LAC will:

- Reduce the melting rate of glaciers

- Reduce the change to agriculture implied by increased temperature (e.g. coffee)

- Reduce changes in distribution of different species, vegetation types, reducing biodiversity loss

- Allow more time for vulnerable communities to adapt

Time series estimates of glacier mass balance in

different regions of the world (from Kaser et al., 2006).

Panel a. shows mass balance normalized to the glacierized area in each

region (specific mass balance), a measure of the relative response of

each region, while Panel b. shows change in total mass balance,

reported in millimetres of sea-level equivalent (SLE)

National action against air pollution

can slow down global warming

Slowing down near-term global warming is important – not just focus on end of Century temperature

16 measures reduce global warming up to 2040 0.4/0.5oC relative to baseline almost halving of temperature rise; 0.7oC reduction in Arctic

Glacier lake outburst floods

Why slow down near term global warming?

• Bursting glacier lakes;

• increasing heat waves

• Melting arctic land ice, ice caps, sea level rise

• Allow vulnerable communities to adapt

• Reduce biodiversity impacts

Cannot replace CO2 reductions – we need both –

1. Reducing short-lived climate forcers: slow down near-term global warming

2. CO2 reductions for long term climate protection

Near-term framing

In Latin America and the Caribbean

about 39,000 premature deaths

would be avoided each year

HEALTH IMPACTS: Implementing the Black

Carbon measures avoids about 2.4 million

premature deaths globally each year

CROP YIELD BENEFITS:

About 32 (range 21-57) million tonnes yield loss avoided

in 2030 A. Methane measures

reduces air pollution & saves lives P

CROP YIELD BENEFITS:

About 32 (range 21-57) million tonnes yield loss avoided

in 2030 B. Black Carbon measures

reduces air pollution & saves lives P

Crop Benefits in Different Countries

SLCPs as a way to achieve development

goals (MDGs and Beyond)

Issue of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants is closely

linked to many MDGs - pressing needs in LAC:

• Health

• Sustainable energy access

• Food security

• Urban development: waste, sanitation/

sewerage, and sustainable transport

• Adverse climate change impacts

GROUP 1: Cost Savings or Low Cost

e.g. Recovery and utilization of vented gas during oil production;

Replacement of traditional brick kilns with more efficient kilns

GROUP 2: Moderate Cost,

e.g. Coal mines: oxidation of ventilation methane

GROUP 3: High Cost,

e.g. Applying Euro VI/6 standards to vehicles

How much does it cost?

Costs of implementing 16 measures

Black carbon measures

• Improved stoves

• Upgraded brick kilns

Methane measures

• Recovery from fossil fuel production

(coal mines; gas distribution)

• Waste / landfill management

How much does it cost?

Costs of implementing 16 measures

50% of black carbon and methane emission reductions:

Low cost or no-cost Recovery of methane, better fuel

efficiency

• Addressing SLCPs is a development issue – countries reducing emissions

will benefit from improved health (avoid 2.4 million premature deaths; 40 000

in LAC+INDOOR!), crop yields (avoid > 30 million tonnes loss; approx. 5.5

million in LAC) every year

• 16 identified measures, implemented by 2030, would reduce global warming

by 0.5oC (0.2-0.7oC) in 2050 halving the rate of warming projected by the

Reference Scenario

• Substantial regional climate benefits: e.g. in the reduce warming by about

0.5 oC in LAC (range 0.2-0.7oC by 2050), reducing climate impacts over this

period

• Near-term measures would improve the chance of not exceeding 2oC

target, but only if CO2 is also addressed, starting now (complementary

strategies; not alternatives)

• The identified measures are all currently in use in different regions around

the world; much wider and more rapid implementation is required to achieve

the full benefits

• Many measures achieve cost savings over time.

Conclusions

‘An Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and

Tropospheric Ozone’

http://www.unep.org/dewa/Portals/67/pdf/BlackCarbon_SDM.pdf

‘Near-term Climate and Clean Air Benefits: Actions for

Controlling Short-Lived Climate Forcers’

http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/SLCF/

The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures

The share of global temperature reduction from black carbon measures

Regional Climate Changes: Preventing Disturbance of

Rainfall Patterns Change in atmospheric forcing at 2030 relative to the reference

case in the two models.

• Dark areas: where the biggest energy change to the

atmosphere occurs

• This drives regional weather pattern changes

Observed (left) and modelled (right) surface BC

concentrations (ng/m3) (Koch et al., 2009a).

• showing rather sparse measurements but reasonable

correlation between model and measurement Source: Koch et

al., 2009a

Black carbon and ozone concentrations (daily averages)

measured from March 2006 to February 2008 at the GAW-

WMO Global station "Nepal Climate Observatory - Pyramid"

at 5 097 m above mean sea level near Mt. Everest

showing values comparable with polluted

areas during several pre-monsoon day Source: Bonasoni et al.,

2010

550 ng m-3

Impact of the Measures on Health and

Crop yields

• Models give PM2.5 and ozone concentrations for health and crop

yield impact assessment

• Concentration-response relationships from literature used to

evaluate global impacts

Exposure of wheat to ozone

in Pakistan Clean air

Air with

ambient

ozone

Warming in different latitude bands due to O3 and

aerosols only following the reference scenario for

emission projections from 2010 to 2030 and then

assuming constant emissions at 2030 levels thereafter

• Largest projected increases in Arctic

Crop Benefits in Different Countries

Temperature changes over 20th Century

Source: NASA GISS

Effect of measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to 2005

9 BC measures reduce ̴80% of BC

Reference: CH4 increases 7 CH4 measures reduce ̴25% of CH4 (2005); or ̴ 40% relative to 2030

BC measures reduce CO

Health Benefits by Country

Annual average surface temperature change (ºC) from

implementing all measures

• Dark areas: where the biggest temperature benefit occurs

Effect of measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to 2005

Relative to 2005 9 BC measures fully implemented in 2030 reduce approximately: • 80% of BC emissions •. 80% of OC emissions • 65% of CO emissions • 40% of NOx emissions

7 Methane measures fully implemented in 2030 reduce approximately: 25% of methane relative to 2005 emissions or 40% of methane relative to projected 2030