Strengthening Costing and Financing of SDG 4.2 in the Asia ......2019 2022 2026 2030 15,472 16,874 18,278 19,399 31.1 30.3 28.2 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

112-13 July 2021 at 1:30 pm – 3:30 pm (Bangkok time/ GMT+7)

Strengthening Costing and Financing of SDG 4.2 in the Asia-Pacific Region

UNESCO BangkokKyungah Kristy Bang, Programme Officer

2

Outline


Regional efforts to expand quality ECE

Current Status of ECE in the Asia-Pacific Region

Strengthening Costing and Financing of SDG 4.2 in Asia-Pacific Region

Next steps to increase financial investments in ECE in the Region


Access to Early Childhood Education in the Asia-Pacific Region

0102030405060708090

100

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 World Arab States Central and Eastern Europe Central Asia East Asia and the Pacific Latin America and the Caribbean North America and Western Europe South and West Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

Gross enrolment ratio, pre-primary (%) across region and in Asia-Pacific

Source: UIS

v ECE has expanded in Asia-Pacific, yet there are regional disparities exist.

Current Status of ECE in the Asia-Pacific Region (1/3)


Early Childhood Education Finance in the Asia-Pacific Region

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2%

Minim

um benchm

arkMinimum benchmark

Government expenditure on pre-primary education as % of GDPGov

ernm

ent e

xpen

ditu

re o

n pr

e-pr

imar

y ed

ucat

ion

as %

of g

over

nmen

t edu

catio

n ex

pend

iture

Mongolia

Vietnam

Maldives

Republic of KoreaNew ZealandLao PDR

Australia

Timor Leste

Malaysia

◆ High-Income● Uppr-Middle Income

▲ Lower-Middle Income

Government expenditure on ECE in Asia-Pacific region (2018 and most recent year)

v ECE remains a chronically underfunded sub-sector in the Asia-Pacific region.

Source: UIS

Thailand

Nepal

Japan


4

1.2%

24.7%

18.3%

55.8%

ECE Primary Secondary Post-Secondary12-13 July 2021 at 1:30 pm – 3:30 pm (Bangkok time/ GMT+7)

Early Childhood Education Finance in the Asia-Pacific Region

1.8%

31.3%

23.4%

43.5%

0.9%

34.4%

17.3%

47.5%

v Donors spend less than 1% on pre-primary education, which is the lowest level across region.

Africa Central and South AmericaAsia

Source: OECD CRS Database

Proportion of donors’ aids to education sector by sub-educational level (2018)


5


Regional efforts to expand quality ECE (1/3)

International Efforts Regional Efforts2013 First Regional Policy Forum (Seoul, Republic of Korea)

2015 Education 2030 Agenda (SDG 4)

2016 Second Regional Policy Forum (Putrajaya, Malaysia)-> Putrajaya Declaration

2018 Third Regional Policy Forum (Kathmandu, Nepal)-> Kathmandu Statement of Action

2019 Regional guidelines on innovative financing mechanisms and partnerships for early childhood care and education (ECCE)

2020 Virtual Regional Workshop on Education Costing and Financing2022 Fourth Regional Policy Forum (Tashkent, Uzbekistan)

By 2030 ensure that all girls and boys have access to quality early childhood development, care and pre-primary education so that they are ready for primary education

SDG 4.2


Regional efforts to expand quality ECE (2/3)Asia-Pacific Regional Policy Forum on Early Childhood Care and Education

To provide a platform for high-level policy-makers of Asia-Pacific countries to share knowledge and discuss strategies to expand access to and improve the quality of comprehensive ECCE.

Regional action plan to operationalize and monitor SDG target 4.2

Prioirty Area

I. FinancingII. Education sector planningIII. Equity in access for allIV. Quality improvementV. Monitoring 4.2 indicators

[Action Plan]• Recognize importance of investments in young children.• Increase financial investments.• Priotize targeted investment for marginalized children.• Adopt innovative financing policies.• Encourage development partners to increase assistance.• Promote public-private partnership.• Build an effective and transparent accountability system.

Kathmandu Statement of ActionPutrajaya Declaration


Regional efforts to expand quality ECE (3/3)

Regional guideline on innovative financing:

Guideline on innovative ECE financing mechanisms and

partnerships that can provide solutions to overcoming

the financing challenges currently hindering the

achievement of Target 4.2.

• To mobilize domestic as well as international financing.• To include innovations in service delivery as well as in

resource mobilization.• To involve multilateral management and partnerships with

private entities.• To generate substantial and stable flows of funds for

development.• To help to enhance the efficiency of financial flows.


UNESCO – Korea Funds-in-Trust (KFIT) Project:

Strengthening costing and financing of SDG 4.2 in the Asia-Pacific Region

How much would it cost to achieve SDG4 Target 4.2 (universal pre-primary) in the Asia Pacific Region?


Strengthening Costing and Financing of SDG 4.2 in Asia-Pacific Region

To strengthen national capacities for systematic review and analysis of costing and financing of

SDG4.2 to ensure that national education sector plans become truly sector-wide.

Member States in the region will have increased government investment in ECE and expanded partnerships with all relevant stakeholders for equitable access to quality ECE.

Project Objective

Outcome

o National ECE Costing and Financing Modelso Regional and national workshops to strength financial capacities.

Activities

Three pilot cases from low-middle income countries in

APCambodiaBhutanKiribati


Methodology to develop ECE Costing Model

Summary of ECE statisticsAccess and

Quality Targets from SDG 4.2 indicators and

national targets

Economic Variables

Estimation Results

• ECE-aged populationPupils

• GER, pre-priamry• Enrollments by PP school types• Marginalized pupils

Human and Physical resources• Teachers needed• Classrooms needed• Teaching/learning materials needed

Financial requiremnets

• Financial source(Government, donor, household.)• Total expenditures

Population

Population• ECE-aged populationECE enrollment• GER by age and gender• Enrollments by PP school type

Economic conditions• GDP and GDP growth• International aid trends

Costing Modelfor SDG 4.2

Historical data and Scenario Setting Estimation for 2030

National Education system

Expenditure framework

• Recurrent costs• Non-recurrent costs• Investment

Number of existing resources• # of teaching/non-teaching staff• # of PP school

Data sources

UIS, WB EduStat, OECD Stat, and national education statistic document(Ex: Cambodian Education Statistics & Indicators Preschool and General education)


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030Epidemic Period 1 1Remediation Period 1 1 1Post-pandemic 1 1 1 1 1 1

Ø Set scenarios and assumputions to estimate financial impacts

<ECE provision> <Teaching> <Sanitation facility> <Cost and Finance>

• Length of school closure• Length of epidemic period• Length of remediatoin

period• % of pupils affected by

school closures• Drup-out ratio during

epidemic situation

• Additional teacher training during school closure and remediation

• Annual unit cost of teacher training

• # of students per additional sanitation facility

• Unit cost of sanitation facility

• % of sanitation facilities need to be repaired

• GDP scenario• Unit cost for quantile

measures• Unit cost for remediation

measures• Unit cost after epidemic

period• Financial supports to non-

government PP school.

To estimate financial impacts of COVID-19 on ECE provision


Cambodia Pre-Primary Education Cost and Finance Simulation Model (1/5)

0102030405060708090

100

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GER Prospect

40.7％(Without any additional

intervention)

51.8%(National Target)

---- Cambodia’s Education 2030 RoadmapTarget

Cambodia needs to scale up investments to ECE section to achieve the national access targets (51.8 % from Cambodia’s Education 2030 Roadmap) and the international access targets (100 %: universal access from SDG 4.2).

GER of pre-primary education(Historical trends and its propspect)

%

Access Target

Targets Baseline 2019 2030 TargetTarget of Cambodian Education 2030 Roadmap (National Target)

25.1%51.8 %

Target of Sustainable Development Goal 4.2 (International Target) 100 %

---- SDG 4.2. Target

100%(SDG 4.2 Target)

Target of Cambodian Education 2030 Roadmap

International Benchmark

Government expenditure for education (as % of GDP)

2.5 % 4 %

Government expenditure for PP education (as % of government educational expenditure)

9 % 10 %

Financial Target


Cambodia Pre-Primary Education Cost and Finance Simulation Model (2/5)ECE ProvisionRequired number of physical and human resources to achieve national and SDG 4.2 scenarios.

Access target and Required numbr of PP school buildings

Req

uire

d nu

mbe

r ofP

P sc

hool

bui

ldin

gs GER

, pre-primary (3-5 aged children) R

equi

red

# of

PP

scho

ol te

ache

rs

Quality Target (PTR:25) and Required numbr of pre-primary teachers

National Target SDG 4.2 Target National Target SDG 4.2 Target

8,8899,853

10,75511,507

38.5%42.1%

46.9%51.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2019 2022 2026 2030

Public PP Private PP Community PP GER

8,889

12,930

17,782

22,215

38.5%

55.2%

77.6%

100.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2019 2022 2026 2030

15,47216,874

18,278 19,399

31.1 30.328.2

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2019 2022 2026 2030

Teaching staff Non-teaching staff PTR

15,472

22,144

30,219

37,44931.1 30.3

28.2

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2019 2022 2026 2030

Pupil-Teacher Ratio (PTR

)


Cambodia Pre-Primary Education Cost and Finance Simulation Model (3/5)Financial Requirements to Achieve ECE targets in Cambodia (Pre-COVID-19 Estimation)

Financial requirements would rise to US$ 133.5 million for national target and US$ 306.6 million for SDG 4.2 target in 2030.Government needs to scale up its spending on Pre-Primary Education to compensate the financial shortfall, especially if the government provided free pre-primary education by 2030.

Costs to achieve ECE targets

Milli

on (U

SD$)

Milli

on (U

SD$)

Expenditure framework by stakeholders (USD$ million)

132.3

92.4 108.8

133.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2022 2026 2030Recurrent (salaries) Recurrent (non-salaries) Capital investment

185.1

235.9

306.6

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2022 2026 2030

32.219.7

2.692.4

108.8

133.5

60.2

89.1

130.9

5.2%

7.1%

9.0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2022 2026 2030

Government Donor Household Shortfall % of government Edu Ex.

126.1

157.9

205.2

185.1

235.9

306.6

59.178.0

101.3

5.2%

7.1%

9.0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2022 2026 2030



Cambodia Pre-Primary Education Cost and Finance Simulation Model (4/5)Financial Requirements to achieve ECE targets in Cambodia during COVID-19 pandemic

Expenditure framework by stakeholders (USD$ million)

Ø During the COVID-19 pandemic, costs to ECE sector would be increased (ex: new sanitation facilities, additional training for remediation measures, and/or re-enrolment strategy) .

Ø Given estimations the government lose national income due to low GDP growth rate, the budget to ECE would be decreased and shortfall would be US$ 10.3 million for national target and US$ 232.6 million for SDG 4.2 target in 2030.

Milli

on (U

SD$)

Pre-COVID 19 Projection

Costs to achieve ECE targets (USD$ million)

Milli

on (U

SD$)

119.3 138.0 141.3

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2022 2026 2030

Reccurent Cost Capital Cost Additional Cost for COVID-19 measures

240.5

301.5 324.3

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2022 2026 2030

182.3

227.3232.6

240.5

301.5324.3

58.174.2

91.7

5.2%

7.1%

9.0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2022 2025 2027

92.4108.8

133.5

185.1

235.9

306.6


60.052.7

19.9119.3

138.0 141.3

59.385.3

121.3

5%

7%

9%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2022 2026 2030

Government Donor Household Shortfall % of government Edu Ex.


Cambodia Pre-Primary Education Cost and Finance Simulation Model (5/5)To compensate for financial shortfall

Ø To compensate for financial shortfall, government need to increase government expenditure on education as % of GDP or government education expenditure on pre-primary education as % of education expenditure by 2030.

23.1%

15.4%

11.5%9.2%

7.7%6.6% 5.8% 5.1% 4.6% 4.2% 3.8% 3.6% 3.3%

27.5%

18.3%

13.8%

11.0%9.2%

7.9% 6.9% 6.1% 5.5% 5.0% 4.6% 4.2% 3.9%

46.0%

34.5%

27.6%

23.0%

19.7%17.2%

15.3%13.8%

12.5%11.5% 10.6% 9.9%

40.4%

32.3%

26.9%

23.1%

20.2%18.0%

16.2%14.7%

13.5%12.4% 11.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0%

National Target (Pre-COVID19 Projection) National Target (COVID-19 Projection)

International Target (Pre-COVID19 Projection) International Target (COVID-19 Projection)

% o

f gov

ernm

ent e

duca

tion

expe

nditu

re o

n PP

Government expenditure on Education (% of GDP)

in 2030 (USD million)Projected

budget

Financial Requirem

ents ShortfallNational Target

(Pre-COVID19 Projection) 130.9 133.5 - 2.6National Target

(COVID-19 Projection) 121.3 141.3 - 19.9SDG Target

(Pre-COVID19 Projection) 101.3 306.6 - 205.2SDG Target

(COVID-19 Projection) 91.7 324.3 - 232.6

Required amount of government expenditure to comensate for shortfall.

National Target(9 % of Edu Ex.)

National Target

(2.5 % og G

DP)

Financial shortfall in case the government allocate 2.5 % of GDP to educationa and 9 %

of educational expenditure to ECE in 2030


Next steps to increase financial investments in ECE in Asia-Pacific RegionLimitations of the Model

Without comprehensive data, calculated projections will not be reliable. Adequate and quality data are essential.

To address financial challenges to achieve SDG 4.2 and National ECE targets

→ Strength data collection capacities to monitor SDG 4.2 indicators adequately and effectively.

• Identify most disadvantaged area and/or population at regional and national level, then priortize targeted financial investments for marginalized children.

• Explore and adopt alternative and innovative financing policies and mechanisms to support governments' limited fiscal capacity.

• Develop costing and financing tools with reliable national data and apply estimation results to policy development.

• Sensitize all relevant stakeholders to compensate national income lose and increased educational costs during epidemic and remediation period of COVID-19.


Thank youLearn more: www.unesco.org/education

@UNESCO

http://www.unesco.org/education

Documents

Strengthening Costing and Financing of SDG 4.2 in the Asia ......2019 2022 2026 2030 15,472 16,874 18,278 19,399 31.1 30.3 28.2 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000