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Structural change and social security: semi-subsistence farming in Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria
Jana FritzschResults drawn from the project "Sustainability of semi-subsistence farming systems in New Member States and Acceding Countries (S-FARM)", Contract No. 150652-2006 F1SC-DE
European Network for Rural DevelopmentSeminar "Semi-subsistence farming in the EU: current situation and future prospects"Sibiu, Romania, October 13-15, 2010
The views expressed are purely those of the presenter. She is not acting on behalf of the European Commission and the following information may not in any circumstance be regarded as stating a position of the European Commission.
J. Fritzsch, European Network for Rural Development, Seminar, October 13-15, 2010, Sibiu, Romania 2
Structure of talk
1. Need for structural change
2. S-FARM project
3. Characteristics of semi-subsistence farm households
4. Future prospects
5. Conclusions
J. Fritzsch, European Network for Rural Development, Seminar, October 13-15, 2010, Sibiu, Romania 3
1. Need for structural change
Share of agricultural holdings ≤ 4 ESU in 2007
80.5% in Poland
98.3% in Romania
95.6% in Bulgaria
Source: Eurostat.
J. Fritzsch, European Network for Rural Development, Seminar, October 13-15, 2010, Sibiu, Romania 4
1. Need for structural change
Share of agricultural holdings operated by farmers ≥ 55 years in 2007
35.1% in Poland
66.8% in Romania
70.1% in Bulgaria
Source: Eurostat.
J. Fritzsch, European Network for Rural Development, Seminar, October 13-15, 2010, Sibiu, Romania 5
1. Need for structural change
Share of agricultural holdings operated by farmers with only practical experience in 2005
61.5% in Poland
92.6% in Romania
94.7% in Bulgaria
Source: Eurostat.
J. Fritzsch, European Network for Rural Development, Seminar, October 13-15, 2010, Sibiu, Romania 6
2. S-FARM project
Financed and coordinated by EC JRC IPTS, AGRILIFE Unit(SUSTAG Action) executed by IAMO and its partners from WAW (Poland), USAMVB (Romania), UNWE (Bulgaria), and Graham Dalton (UK)
Research questions:
– What characterises semi-subsistence farm households in Central and South-eastern Europe?
– Which development strategies could promote them most?
Jana Stefan Gertrud Jarmila Sergio
Fritzsch Wegener Buchenrieder CurtissGomez y Paloma
J. Fritzsch, European Network for Rural Development, Seminar, October 13-15, 2010, Sibiu, Romania 7
2. S-FARM project
Semi-subsistence farm household (SFH): household operating a farm of size 1 to 4 ESU marketing part of its agricultural production
Surveys in Poland (N=158), Romania (N=153), and Bulgaria (N=178) in 2007 referring to year 2006
Cluster analysis and multiobjective linear programming model
J. Fritzsch, European Network for Rural Development, Seminar, October 13-15, 2010, Sibiu, Romania 8
-2
-1
0
1
2
Diversifiers (N=150) Pensioners (N=83)Farmers (N=153) Job-starters (N=103)
3. Characteristics of SFHs – Typology of householdsDependency ratio
Highest level of formal education in household
Agricultural qualification of farmer
Age of farmer
Farmer's experience as farm manager
Share of net non-farm income in net household income
Proportion of agricultural output for own useCredit balance of household in year 2006
Economic size of farm
Farmland used
Share of crops in total agricultural output
Number of agriculturalgoods produced
Share of social payments in net household income
Source: Own calculation with data from project survey.
J. Fritzsch, European Network for Rural Development, Seminar, October 13-15, 2010, Sibiu, Romania 9
3. Characteristics of SFHs - Viability
Note: Viability=net household income / living expendituresSource: Own calculation with data from project survey.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Diversifiers
Pensioners
Farmers
Job-starters
Viable households Non-viable households
J. Fritzsch, European Network for Rural Development, Seminar, October 13-15, 2010, Sibiu, Romania 10
3. Characteristics of SFHs - Income
Diversifiers Pensioners Farmers Job-starters SampleNet household income (EUR)of which
3,486 1,969 5,413 2,895 3,438
non-farm 2,350 0 0 1,069 1,233social payments
483 1,439 403 589 718
subsidies 0 0 1,707 100 85
Source: Own calculation with data from project survey.
J. Fritzsch, European Network for Rural Development, Seminar, October 13-15, 2010, Sibiu, Romania 11
3. Characteristics of SFHs - Budget
Diversifiers Pensioners Farmers Job-starters SampleNet household income
3,486 1,969 5,413 2,895 3,438
per member 1,059 734 1,633 898 1,096
Household living expenditures
4,323 2,960 5,244 5,556 4,409
per member 1,327 1,090 1,523 1,456 1,388
Source: Own calculation with data from project survey.
Household income and living expenditures (EUR) in 2006
Poverty lines in 2006 (Davidova 2010):Poland 1,867 EUR Romania 828 EUR Bulgaria 1,022 EUR
Mean consumption expenditure per adult equivalent in 2005 by Eurostat:Poland 3,530 EUR Romania 1,541 EUR Bulgaria 1,798 EUR
J. Fritzsch, European Network for Rural Development, Seminar, October 13-15, 2010, Sibiu, Romania 12
3. Characteristics of SFHs - Farming
Diversifiers Pensioners Farmers Job-starters SampleAgricultural output
3,343 2,212 6,692 4,599 4,258
Variable costs 590 450 1,680 1,111 883
Own used agricultural output
2,375 1,230 2,655 1,641 1,016
per member 708 486 737 464 588
Source: Own calculation with data from project survey.
Agricultural output, variable costs and own use (EUR) in 2006
J. Fritzsch, European Network for Rural Development, Seminar, October 13-15, 2010, Sibiu, Romania 13
3. Characteristics of SFHs – Intentions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Diversifiers Pensioners Farmers Job-starters
Perc
ent o
f hou
seho
lds
Reduce farming Continue as at present Make investments in farming
Source: Own calculation with data from project survey.
Future intentions for the farm
J. Fritzsch, European Network for Rural Development, Seminar, October 13-15, 2010, Sibiu, Romania 14
4. Future prospects
J. Fritzsch, European Network for Rural Development, Seminar, October 13-15, 2010, Sibiu, Romania 15
4. Future prospects
Source: Simulation results.
Simulated annual credit balance of households in year 2016Bas
e
Farm
deve
lopmen
t
Self-em
ploym
ent
Early r
etirem
ent
PL: Diversifiers
PL: Pensioners
PL: Farmers
PL: Job-starters
RO: Diversifiers
RO: Pensioners
RO: Farmers
RO: Job-starters
BG: Diversifiers
BG: Pensioners
BG: Farmers
BG: Job-starters
0
J. Fritzsch, European Network for Rural Development, Seminar, October 13-15, 2010, Sibiu, Romania 16
5. Conclusions
Semi-subsistence is a multi-faceted phenomenon.
Structural change is possible but semi-subsistence will not diminish in the short term.
Policy support needs to be finely targeted to household type.– Farmers: farm investment support accompanied by extension
service
– Diversifiers: no target group for farm investment or diversification support
– Pensioners: social policy
– Job-starters: general and agricultural training, farm investment support accompanied by extension service
J. Fritzsch, European Network for Rural Development, Seminar, October 13-15, 2010, Sibiu, Romania 17
Publications:
Final report: http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=3599
IAAE 2009 poster paper:http://purl.umn.edu/51444
Thank you very much!