8/6/2019 struture analogy2

1/21

Presented by:-

Ankita Solanki

Devendra Sharma

Sneha Tirpude

Swarnika Tigga

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

2/21

Forecast by analogy met ss mes t t

t ifferent inds f enomena s ares t e

samemodel of ehavior. For example,one

ay topredict the sales of anewproduct isto chooseanexistingproduct which "looks

like" thenewproduct in terms of the

expecteddemandpattern for sales of the

product.

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

3/21

It seems natural touseanalogies when

makingdecisions or forecastingas y

definition they contain informationabout

howpeoplehavebehaved in similarsituations in thepast. Onebehavioral

scientist asserted that wemayexplain

humanbehavior byassuming that decision

aremadebyanalogywithprevious cases .

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

4/21

Theuseof analogy is not a recent

phenomenon; For e.g. analogies were

commonlyused for economic andbusiness

forecasting in the 1930s.Most of thedecisionmadeearly in Vietnam

war werebasedon structuredanalogies.

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

5/21

More recently theuseof analogies has

becomeapopular solution topredict the

cost of softwaredevelopment project.

In the field studyof 589 organization,61% ofthosewho reported forecasting the cost of

S/W projects kept dataonprevious projects

andpredicted the cost of newprojects by

analogy.Weexpects theanalogies wouldbeuseful in

forecastingdecision in conflict situation that

are quiet difficult to forecast.

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

6/21

Two ofwhichinvolves experts analyzinganalogies.

1. The administrator describes the targetsituation, &

2. Selects experts;

3. The each experts identify & describe

analogies,

4. The expert rate similarity;

5. The administrator derives forecasts.

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

7/21

Theadministrator prepares anaccurate,comprehensive & brief description.

Todo so, theadministrator should seekadviceeither fromunbiasedexperts orfromexperts withopposingbiases.

It should includea list of possibleoutcomes for the target situation tomakeforecastingeasier.

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

8/21

Theadministrator recruits experts whoare likely toknowabout situation that are similar to the targetsituation.

Theadministrator shoulddecidehoware likely toknowabout situation that are similar to the target

situation. Theadministrator shoulddecidehowmanyexperts to

recruit basedonhowmuchknowledge theyhaveabout analogous situation, the variability in responseamongexperts, & the importanceof obtainingaccurate forecasts.

rawingupon the researchon thedesirablenumberof forecasts to combine;one should seek thehelpofat least fiveexperts.

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

9/21

Asks theexperts todescribeas manyanalogies asthey canwithout considering theextent of thesimilarity to the target situation.

4. RATE SIMILARITY Asks theexperts to list similarities anddifferences

between their analogies & the target situation, &then to rate the similarityof eachanalogy to thetarget.

It is better providinga scaleagainst which theexperts can rate the similarityof their analogies. Askthem tomatch their analogies outcomes with targetoutcomes.

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

10/21

Topromote logical consistencyandreplicability, theadministrator shoulddecideon the rules toderivea forecast

fromexperts analogies. Many rules arereasonable touse.

For example,one could select theanalogythat theexpert ratedas most similar to thetarget andadopt theoutcome impliedby

that analogyas the forecast.

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

11/21

TO FORECAST CONFLICTS

OUTCOME

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

12/21

ARTISTS PROTEST:Members of a richnations artistsunionoccupiedamajor gallery & demandedgenerousfinancial support from their government. What will bethe final resolutionof theartists sit-in? (6options)

DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL:Anappliancemanufacturer

proposed toa supermarket chainanovel arrangementfor retailing its wares. Will themanagement of thesupermarket chainagree to theplan? (3 options)

55% PAY PLAN:Professional sports players demandeda55% shareof gross revenues & threatened togoonstrike if theowners didnt concede. Will therebea

strike & if so,how longwill it last? (4 options) NURSES DISPUTE:Angrynurses increased their pay

demand & threatenedmore strikeactions afterspecialist nurses & junior doctors receivedbigincreases. What will theoutcomeof their negotiationsbe? (3 options)

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

13/21

PERSONAL GRIEVANCE:Anemployeedemandedameetingwithamediator whenher jobwas downgradedafter her newmanager re-evaluated it. What will theoutcomeof themeetingwith themediator be? (4 options)

TELKO TAKEOVER: Anacceptable telecommunication

provider,after rejectinga sellers mobilebusiness offer,madeahostilebid for thewhole corporation. Howwill the stand-offbetween the companies be resolved? (4 options)

WATERDISPUTE: Troops fromneighboringnations moved totheir commonborder and thedownstreamnations threatenedtobomb theupstreamnations newdam. Will theupstreamneighbor agree to releaseadditional water &, if not,howwill

thedownstreamnations government respond? (3 options) ZENITH INVESTMENT:Under political pressure,a large

manufacturer evaluatedan investment inexpensivenewtechnology. Howmanynewmanufacturingplants will itdecide to commission? (3 options)

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

14/21

Questionnaires asked toexpert consists of

following questions:

Describeeachanalogous situation

Describe their sourceof knowledgeabout it

List similarities anddifferences compared to

the target conflict

Provideanoverall similarity rating

(whereno similarity=0.high similarity= 10)

theoutcome closest to theoutcomeof their

analogy

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

15/21

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

16/21

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

17/21

The structuredanalogies method is useful only in casesinwhichexperts can thinkof analogies. The limitationscanbeovercome inmany situations by identifyingpeoplewith relevant expertise. While this maybedifficult toknow inadvance,one cangaugepeoplesexpertise from their responses- i.e. ,did theyprovideanalogies, if so,howmany; & did theyhavedirectexperience?

Using structuredanalogies is more costlyand timeconsuming.

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

18/21

For our structuredanalogies method, the twokey criteria for identifyinganexpert werethenumber of analogies generatedand thepresenceof direct knowledgeabout thoseanalogies.

The forecasts from the structuredanalogy,for this case studies was found tobe 75%accurate.

Given the importanceof forecasts inconflicts situationand inother arenas, suchimprovement couldhave considerablebenefits.

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

19/21

Thank you!

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

20/21

8/6/2019 struture analogy2

21/21