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SUB-NATIONAL FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION PROJECTIONS
THE CASE OF ANDALUSIA
Silvia Bermúdez, Juan A. Hernández & Joaquín PlanellesAndalusian Statistical Office
Index
Andalusia in Context Nationality versus Place of Birth Demographic Phenomena Main Results
Index
Andalusia in Context Nationality versus Place of Birth Demographic Phenomena Main Results
Andalusia in Context
1. Andalusia is located in Europe
Andalusia in Context
1. Andalusia is located in Europe
2. It is a part of Spain
Andalusia in Context
1. Andalusia is located in Europe
2. It is a part of Spain
3. It is down south of Iberian Peninsula
Andalusia in Context
17 Regions
Big within Spanish context:
1st in terms of population. 8 million, 18% share
2nd in terms of size, 17% share
Andalusia in Context
50 Provinces
(8 in Andalusia)
8.112 municipalities (770 in Andalusia)
Andalusia in Context
Madrid and the Coast
2 out of 6 half-million cities
Andalusia in Context
Madrid and the Coast
2 out of 6 half-million cities
… And immigrants follow the very same pattern
Index
Andalusia in Context Nationality versus Place of Birth Demographic Phenomena Main Results
Nationality vs Place of birth
1. Andalusian population projection have traditionally distinguished 3 variables….
Origin of
individuals
Nationality vs Place of birth
2. The choice of the definition is mainly based on data availability & plausibility of identifying demographic clusters
Long term convergence?
Second generations
How many “origin” groups?
Different patterns for fertility, ¿mortality? & mobility converge on the long term
Not considered separately
5 groups based on the place of birth with unique population structures & demographic behaviours
Further questions…. we have assumed…
Nationality vs Place of birth
Nationality vs Place of birth
1. Born in Spain
Nationality vs Place of birth
2. Born in Africa
Male thing, labor ages
Nationality vs Place of birth
3. Born in Latin America
Female thing, labor ages
Nationality vs Place of birth
4. Born in UE15
Retirement thing
Nationality vs Place of birth
5. Other
Balanced, labor ages.
Index
Andalusia in Context Nationality versus Place of Birth Demographic Phenomena Main Results
Demographic Phenomena
1. Changes in fertility patterns are similar to other European Regions
Though changes were more drastic and they began later
Demographic Phenomena
1. Immigrant fertility is greater and it starts sooner
Demographic Phenomena
1. Immigrant fertility is greater and it starts sooner
… But immigrant population is heterogeneous
Demographic Phenomena
1. Immigrant fertility is greater and it starts sooner
… But immigrant population is heterogeneous
Demographic Phenomena
2. Mean life duration has experienced a dramatic change in Andalusia
Demographic Phenomena
2. Mean life duration has experienced a dramatic change in Andalusia
… So we assumed those trends to continue in the future
Demographic Phenomena
2. It was impossible to record differential place of birth mortality patterns
Strong positive
correlation income vs
health status
Demographic Phenomena
3. Migration analysis and modeling issues
• Most volatile phenomena
• Difficult to deal with when forecasting
• Migration data presents lower quality than other phenomena
• Difficult coverage of targeted population
• Sub-phenomena based on the flow direction & geographical scope
• Internal & External, In & out migrations
Demographic Phenomena
3. Migration sub-phenomena decomposition
As many times as birth groups selected
Index
Andalusia in Context Nationality versus Place of Birth Demographic Phenomena Main Results
Main Results
1. Population will continue growing in the coming years, due to its natural growth potential
Nonetheless, population is likely to fall in the long run
Main Results
2. Despite expected increase in fertility, births are likely to fall
Main Results
2. Despite expected increase in fertility, births are likely to fall
Despite expected reduction in mortality, casualties are likely increase
Main Results
3. Ageing. Baseline
Main Results
3. Ageing. Low growth
Main Results
3. Ageing. High growth
Main Results
3. Population is ageing
Main Results
3. Population is ageing
… But should we use static indicators of ageing?
Dynamic indicators may be required to compare the so called “senior groups” in a
context of continuousImprovement of Life Expectancy & Disability-
free life expectancy rates
Main Results
4. Foreign-born population is likely to increase in the future.
Main Results
4. Foreign-born population is likely to increase in the future.
… But in the long term, immigrant population will get older too.
Main Results
5. Data access.
http://www.iea.junta-andalucia.es/proyecc