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Energy storage in a competitive market: the Business Case and Challenges
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Energy Storage in a Competitive Market:
the Business Case and Challenges Alberta Innovates Energy Storage Symposium
November 19, 2013
Special thanks to the Climate Change and Emissions
Management Corporation (CCEMC) for their financial
support
Legal notice
2
This presentation contains certain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and “forward-looking
information” within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation (collectively, “forward-looking statements”), including statements about Suncor’s growth strategy and
expected future production, operating and financial results that are based on Suncor’s current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions that were made by Suncor in
light of its experience and its perception of historical trends. Some of the forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as “objective”, “targets”, “estimates”,
“anticipated”, “plans”, “vision”, “strategy”, “expects”, “proposed”, “intention”, “continue”, “may”, “outlook”, “opportunity” and “projected” and similar expressions. Forward-looking
statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve a number of risks and uncertainties, some that are similar to other oil and gas companies and some that are
unique to Suncor. Users of this information are cautioned that actual results may differ materially as a result of, among other things, assumptions regarding expected synergies
and reduced operating expenditures; volatility of and assumptions regarding oil and gas prices; assumptions regarding timing of commissioning and start-up of capital projects;
assumptions contained in or relevant to Suncor’s current corporate guidance; fluctuations in currency and interest rates; product supply and demand; market competition; risks
inherent in marketing operations (including credit risks); imprecision of reserves and resources estimates and estimates of recoverable quantities of oil, natural gas and liquids
from Suncor’s properties; the ability to access external sources of debt and equity capital; the timing and the costs of well and pipeline construction; assumptions regarding the
timely receipt of regulatory and other approvals; the ability to secure adequate product transportation; changes in royalty, tax, environmental and other laws or regulations or the
interpretations of such laws or regulations; applicable political and economic conditions; the risk of war, hostilities, civil insurrection, political instability and terrorist threats;
assumptions regarding OPEC production quotas; risks associated with existing and potential future lawsuits and regulatory actions.
Although Suncor believes that the expectations represented by such forward-looking statements are reasonable, there can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to
be correct. Suncor’s Earnings Release, Quarterly Report and Management’s Discussion & Analysis for the first quarter of 2011 and its most recently filed Annual Information
Form/Form 40-F, Annual Report to Shareholders and other documents it files from time to time with securities regulatory authorities describe the risks, uncertainties, material
assumptions and other factors that could influence actual results and such factors are incorporated herein by reference. Copies of these documents are available without charge
from Suncor at 150 6th Avenue S.W., Calgary, Alberta T2P 3Y7, by calling 1-800-558-9071, or by email request to [email protected] or by referring to the company’s profile on
SEDAR at www.sedar.com or EDGAR at www.sec.gov. Except as required by applicable securities laws, Suncor disclaims any intention or obligation to publicly update or revise
any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is the calculation of that rate at which the business is expected to grow over a period of time, taking into account the effect of annual
compounding. Planned net capacity is Suncor’s planned production capacity on a calendar day basis, which takes into account regular planned maintenance on an annual
basis. Target first oil is the indicative timing of the start up and commission of new capital projects, when oil production is first anticipated.
Reserves and contingent resource information presented herein is presented as Suncor’s working interest (operating and non-operating) before deduction of royalties, and
without including any royalty interests of Suncor, and is at December 31, 2010. For more information on Suncor’s reserves and contingent resources, please see Suncor’s current
Annual Information Form dated March 3, 2011 available at www.sedar.com. Contingent resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be
potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but which are not currently considered to be commercially
recoverable due to one or more contingencies. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce the contingent resources.
Legal notice
3
The contingent resource estimates provided herein are a best estimate and are considered to be the best estimate of the quantity that will actually be recovered. It is equally likely
that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the best estimate. The best estimate of potentially recoverable volumes is generally prepared
independent of the risks associated with achieving commercial production. There are numerous uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities and quality of these proved and
probable reserves and contingent resources, including many factors beyond our control.
In general, estimates of economically recoverable reserves from these assets are based upon a number of variable factors and assumptions, such as historical production from
the properties, the assumed effect of regulation by governmental agencies, pricing assumptions, the timing and amount of capital expenditures, future royalties, future operating
costs and yield rates for production of SCO from bitumen, all of which may vary considerably from actual results. The accuracy of any reserve and resource estimate is a matter of
engineering interpretation and judgment and is a function of the quality and quantity of available data, which may have been gathered over time and include geological
assessments including drilling and laboratory tests. These estimates also consider current production capacity and upgrading yields, current mine plans, operating life and
regulatory constraints. Our actual production, revenues, royalties, taxes and development and operating expenditures with respect to our reserves will vary from such estimates
and such variances could be material. Production performance subsequent to the date of the estimate may justify revision, either upward or downward, if material. For these
reasons, estimates of the economically recoverable reserves attributable to any particular group of properties, and classification of such reserves based on risk of recovery,
prepared by different engineers or by the same engineers at different times, may vary substantially.
Estimates of contingent resources have not been adjusted for risk based on the chance of development. Such estimates are not estimates of volumes that may be recovered and
actual recovery is likely to be less and may be substantially less or zero. There is no certainty as to the timing of such development. There is no certainty that all or any portion of
the contingent resource will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources. For movement of resources to reserves categories, all projects must have an
economic depletion plan and may require, among other things: (i) additional delineation drilling and/or new technology for unrisked contingent resources; (ii) regulatory approvals;
and (iii) company approvals to proceed with development.
Certain natural gas volumes have been converted to barrels of oil equivalent (boe) on the basis of one barrel to six thousand cubic feet. Boes may be misleading, particularly if
used in isolation. A conversion ratio of one barrel of crude oil or natural gas liquids to six thousand cubic feet of natural gas is based on an energy equivalency conversion method
primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not necessarily represent value equivalency at the wellhead.
© 2011 Suncor Energy. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda
• Who are Suncor and Teck
• Why look at Energy Storage?
• The Process of Assessment
• The Project
• CCEMC funding
• Who benefits from Energy Storage
• Challenges
• Next Steps
• Questions
4
Who are Suncor and Teck?
• Canada’s largest integrated energy company
• Market Cap: $50B, 14,000 employees
• Canadian company on the Global 100 Most Sustainable Corporations List
(#81)
• Named to Dow Jones Sustainability World Index for 13 consecutive years
• Industry leading investments in Renewable Energy: 6 wind projects in
operation, 2 ON projects in advanced permitting stage; own and operate
Canada’s largest ethanol facility.
• Developed innovated tailings management approach called TRO (Tailings
Reductions Operation); significant investment underway
• Triple bottom line vision of sustainable development; must provide economic
prosperity, promote social well-being and preserve healthy environment
5
Suncor Energy
Who are Suncor and Teck?
• Canada’s largest diversified resource company; committed to sustainability
• Market Cap: $16B, 14,000 employees
• Top Canadian company on the Global 100 Most Sustainable Corporations
List
• Named to Dow Jones Sustainability World Index for the past 3 years; ranked
in the top 2% of mining companies worldwide
• Long-term commitment to renewable energy: 2030 goal to develop or source
a cumulative 100 megawatts (MW) of alternative energy generation
• Ongoing work in battery technology R&D
6
Teck Resources
Why look at Energy Storage?
• Suncor and Teck have a strong commitment to renewable energy, including
existing assets and a stated commitment to the development of future
projects.
• Energy Storage is strategically important to Suncor/Teck
– Opportunity to support existing renewable energy projects and enable
future investment in intermittent Renewable Energy in AB
• Suncor and Teck made a commitment in 2011 to look at Energy Storage
opportunities
• Looked at a number of storage technologies (CAES, pumped hydro, natural
gas back up generation, batteries)
7
Why look at Energy Storage?
• Only Canadian jurisdiction with a wholesale competitive energy market
• Highest proportion of installed wind capacity relative to total capacity of any
Canadian jurisdiction at 7.5%, and large number of projects queuing to
interconnect.
• Current AESO studies indicate that system reliability can be maintained up to
1200 MW of wind and perhaps 1500 MW. AESO expects to reach 1400 MW
this year.
– As wind penetration continues to grow, one of the solutions being
considered is wind curtailment
• In 2012 wind generation saw a 40% discount to pool price. Wind is the only
form of generation that sees a discount.
8
Why Alberta?
Why look at Energy Storage?
• Batteries can integrate directly with intermittent RE facilities and offer fast
generation or load response at relatively high efficiently rates vs. other forms
of energy storage
• Batteries enable the integration of additional intermittent generation such as
wind and solar, provide firming
• Batteries have the ability to provide faster and more accurate regulating
reserve services than other forms of generation
– increase market efficiency and grid stability
– improve utilization of transmission system
• Batteries can provide both real and reactive power
• Battery storage was the right solution for Suncor / Teck’s portfolio at this time
for a demonstration project
9
Why battery storage?
The Process of Assessment
• Engaged with Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) in Spring 2012 to
identify regulatory and market hurdles
– Identify necessary revisions to market framework to connect battery to grid
and provide services
– Appropriate tariffs
– Technical requirements to qualify to provide services
• Submitted a System Access Service Request (SASR) to initiate system
studies for the interconnection of the project with AESO in December 2012
• Supportive of the AESO’s ongoing efforts
10
Interconnection
The Process of Assessment
• Completed comprehensive review of available technologies and leading
technology providers
• Included a full range of technologies from conventional to flow, and varied
chemistries.
• Visited manufacturing facilities and operating sites
• Issued RFP in Fall 2012 and received proposals from numerous vendors and
completed comprehensive review
• Conclusion: Lithium-Ion
• Long history as a proven technology in various applications
• Fast reacting with high efficiency (~85%+) vs. other battery technologies
• Scalable electrochemistry
11
Technology Selection
The Project
• Wintering Hills Wind Power Project,
owned by Suncor and Teck, operated
by Suncor
• Located 30 km Southeast of
Drumheller AB, in Wheatland County
• 88 MW total wind generation capacity
• Battery Energy Storage System
(BESS) will be located near the
substation and tied in on the
distribution side
12
Project Site
Project Site
The Project
• 3 MW / 6 MWhr lithium-ion battery integrated behind the fence at the existing wind project in Alberta
• Connected to the 34.5 kV wind farm collector system
Project Objectives:
1) Support the integration of increased renewable energy capacity
2) Support the reduction of GHG emissions
3) Use pilot to test the viability of regulating reserve/arbitrage markets and the storage concept
4) Demonstrate the benefits of fast response Regulating Reserves to reduce the cost of Ancillary Services and improve grid management
5) Improve the utilization of renewable energy assets by storing off-peak energy
13
Wintering Hills Battery Storage Pilot
CCEMC Funding
• Climate Change and Emissions Management Corporation (CCEMC) included
Energy Storage projects in their Renewable Energy Call for Proposals in
2012
• The Project was awarded $ 9.2 MM in funding from the CCEMC as part of
the Renewable Energy Project Call for proposals
• The Project is currently in the Contribution Agreement Stage
This project is an “enabling project.” As the technology matures and is
validated, the ability to store energy will be a major contributing factor to
the reduction of GHG emissions.
14
Who benefits from Energy Storage?
15
FEOC
Price fidelity
Renewable integration
Time Shifting
Energy Market
Supply surplus
curtailment minimization
Reducing T & D losses
Wind firming
Operating Reserves
More efficient use of
Renewable off-peak
generation
Generation Transmission and
Distribution (T&D) End Use Customer Society
VAR support
Improving T&D
Utilization factor
Load following
Deferral of T&D
T&D support and
congestion relief
FEOC
Price fidelity
Improved power
quality
Reliable back-up
power
Energy
management
Peak shaving
Increased/Improved
availability of
ancillary services
Reduced need for
peak generation
capacity
Lower GHG and
other emissions
Challenges
• Early battery technologies were not designed for stationary grid applications
• No precedent to follow - expect to be the first in a deregulated, energy-only,
competitive market in the world
• Utility scale - has challenges in scaling up, in permitting, market framework
• The effects of cycling and depth of discharge based on operation is not fully
understood.
16
Design and Operating Maturity
Challenges
• Alberta lags other jurisdictions in terms of developing market framework for energy storage integration
• No rate base to rely on - must earn a return in a competitive energy market
• The only other source of revenue is ancillary services but current framework is constraining
• Need an ancillary services framework that permits all potential suppliers of service to participate. Recognition of fast response, highly accurate reserves can lower transmission costs to load.
• Reduction in minimum size requirements to qualify to participate in ancillary services markets.
• Require an energy neutral dispatch signal
• Require an interconnection standard
17
Revisions to Regulatory and Market Framework
Challenges
• Energy storage technologies are still emerging, battery installations are still
small compared to conventional generation. Limited economies of scale
• Installed costs are expected to decrease with increased adoption (similar to
wind and solar)
• Preliminary economic analysis indicates that energy arbitrage is inadequate -
other sources of revenue are required
• Ancillary services is the alternate source of revenue and will require revisions
to the AESO framework
18
Project Economics
Next Steps
• Sign contribution agreement with the CCEMC
• Confirm BESS design
• Award contract to preferred technology vendor
• Begin detailed engineering and system integration design
• Engage in further discussions with the appropriate regulatory bodies
• Work with AESO to secure ability to connect and operate the project
– Participation in stakeholder sessions
– Reform framework to be FEOC
• Develop an dispatch strategy that guides the management of depth of discharge and cycle life
• Participate in the development of an Energy Storage GHG protocol
19
Thank You
Thank You
20