Freedom HouseResearch in advance of the South African Elections

March 2014

ALL DATA GATHERED OVER MXIT SOCIAL NETWORK by Pondering Panda

www.ponderingpanda.com

Research objectives

• To better understand the reasons behind the voting behavior of younger South Africans

• To better understand the constraints that are preventing South Africans from becoming actively involved in their country’s governance between elections

This research examines these topics:• Voting intention• Civic education• Civic engagement• Community interaction

Survey ran from 17 - 24 March 2014

Total number of respondents was 1,288, all between the ages of 18-34.

Study information

• Respondents who selected “Yes, I am definitely voting” in Q2 are referred to as “Voters”

• Respondents who selected “No, I’m not voting” in Q2 are “Non-voters”

• Respondents who selected “I’m still thinking about it” in Q2 are “Undecided voters”

The circle indicates a significant value

Demographics

50%50%

18 - 24 25 - 340

102030405060708090

100

4753

Black White Coloured Indian/Asian0

102030405060708090

10081

9 82

RaceAge

% %

Gender

Total market (n=1288)

Demographics (continued)

KwaZulu N

atal

Gauteng

Eastern

Cape

Weste

rn Cape

Free St

ate

North W

est

Limpopo

Mpumalanga

Northern

Cape0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

22 2114 11 8 8 7 5 3

Province

%

Total market (n=1288)

Note: This graph provides an overview of respondents across South Africa

Purchase intent: Family Bundle concepts Voting Intention

Just over half of respondents said they would be voting in the general elections. There appears to be a high level of apathy towards voting, as the percentage of non-voters and undecided voters was relatively high. Coloured respondents were least likely to vote.

Total market (n=1288)

Q2. The general elections are on May 7th this year. Are you planning to vote?

53%34%

13%

Yes, I am definitely voting (n=684)No, I'm not voting (n=434)I’m still thinking about it (n=169)

KwaZulu Natal was the province with the highest percentage of respondents claiming they would be voting, whilst Limpopo had the lowest percentage.

VotersNon-voters

Undecided Voters No significant differences

were found between 18-24 year olds and 25-34 year olds with regard to their voting intentions.

Purchase intent: Family Bundle concepts Civic Education

Voters were more confident in their voting knowledge than were undecided voters. This lack of election and voting knowledge could discourage undecided voters from actually voting. There is a need to identify the most beneficial way to provide undecided voters with the information they would need leading up to the general elections.

Only respondents who are “Voters” & “Undecided voters” (n=854)

Q3. Now thinking about the day of the elections, do you know exactly what you have to do to actually vote (such as where to go and what to do)?

%

Voters (n=684) Undecided voters (n=169)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

80

58

20

42

No, I would like to know more

Yes, I have all the information I need

Older respondents (86%) were more confident in their voting knowledge, than younger, 18-24 year olds (63%).

Mobile phones with access to the internet and mobile applications were the most common way of learning about elections and voting. Voters were more likely to watch TV, compared with undecided voters.

Only respondents who are “Voters” & “Undecided voters”, excluding “None of the above” (n=836)

Q4A. If you wanted to find out more about the elections and how to vote, where do you think you would be most likely to find out more? Note: ranked according to the average

%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

18 2016 15

10 9 7 6

1913 14

8 915

11 11

Voters (n=675)

Undecided Voters (n=161)

Obtaining information from TV skewed towards older, colored and male respondents.

Blacks and females were more likely to use their phones for information.

Among voters and undecided voters, accessing the Internet and apps through one’s mobile phone was the preferred source of information, suggesting that this could be the best tool for communicating with younger South Africans.

Only respondents who are “Voters” & “Undecided voters”, excluding “None of the above” (n=823)

%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2621

1813

7 9 8

1915 16

20 18

7 5

Voters (n=666)

Undecided Voters (n=157)

Q5A. If you had a choice, how would you really like to get information about the elections?Note: ranked according to the average

3 out of 5 respondents did not understand “proportional representation”. This suggests a poor understanding and knowledge of the democratic system among the target market. Please note that some respondents might understand the concept, but be unfamiliar with the phrase.

Total market (n=1288)

Q6. Thinking about how South African elections work, do you know what proportional representation is?

40%

60%

Yes, I know what that is (n=509)

No, I have no idea (n=779)

No significant differences were found between 18-24 year olds and 25-34 year olds with regard to their understanding of “proportional representation”.

Voters and undecided voters were more likely to claim that they knew what proportional representation was, compared to non-voters. Those who claimed to know, were more likely to be male.

Total market (n=1288)

Q6. Thinking about how South African elections work, do you know what proportional representation is?

Voters (n=684) Non-voters (n=434) Undecided voters (n=169)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

45

28

45

55

72

55

No, I have no idea

Yes, I know what that is

%

Purchase intent: Family Bundle concepts Civic Engagement

A majority of respondents say they participate in various activities, in an attempt to make their voices heard by government. This suggests that civic engagement is fairly prevalent in South Africa. However, there was still a significant proportion of respondents who didn’t do anything from a civic engagement point-of-view. Social media emerged as the most popular medium used to make one’s voice heard.

Total market (n=1288)

Q7. What have you yourself done in the last year or so, to make your voice heard?

%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

36

21 2113

9 8 7 10

28

Females, white and colored respondents were more likely to have done nothing.

Civic engagement was lowest among non-voters. Overall, voters appeared to play a more active civic role, and were more likely to participate in various civic activities, such as chatting on social media and attending political group meetings.

Total market (n=1288)

Q7. What have you yourself done in the last year or so, to make your voice heard?

%

I haven’t done anything

Something else

Call the presidential hotline

Sign a document to protest (a petition)

Protest or march in the streets

Go on community radio to get heard

Attend a political group meeting

Go to the municipality to complain or attend a meeting

Chat on social media (like Facebook, Mxit and Twitter)

0 10 20 30 40 50

27

17

11

7

3

15

17

22

37

41

9

5

5

8

8

12

13

32

21

8

7

10

11

16

28

25

39

Voters (n=684)Non-voters (n=434)Undecided voters (n=169)

Purchase intent: Family Bundle concepts Community Interaction

There was poor awareness of MPs and MPLs, with more than half of respondents claiming not to be aware that they had these representatives. Lack of awareness was highest among black respondents and females.

Total market (n=1288)

Q8. Do you know that your area has an MP representing you in parliament? & Q10 Do you know that your area has an MPL representing you for your province?

%

Knowledge of MPs Knowledge of MPLs0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

47 45

53 55

No, I didn’t know we had someone like that

Yes, I knew that

Awareness of MPs and MPLs was similar among voters, non-voters and undecided voters.

Of those respondents who claimed to be aware of their respective MPs and MPLs, the majority said that these individuals didn’t visit or speak in their community. This suggests there is limited community interaction occurring.

Total market, excluding respondents who were not aware of their MPs/ MPLs

%

Voters (n=337) Non-voters (n=196)

Undecided voters (n=77)

Voters (n=342) Non-voters (n=168)

Undecided voters (n=72)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

43

19

4956

17

38

45

63

3130

58

42

1218 19

1425 20

Can't rememberNo, they didn'tYes, they did

MPs (n=610) MPLs (n=583)

Q9A. & Q11A. And, in the last year or so, did your MP/MPL visit or speak in your community?

Purchase intent: Family Bundle concepts Insights

Insights

Voting Intention• There was a significantly low propensity to vote among younger South Africans, with only

half of respondents claiming they were definitely voting in this year’s general elections.

• This low propensity to vote was most prevalent among coloured respondents, although it is unclear as to why they are reluctant to vote.

Civic Education• Respondents who were definitely voting appeared confident that they had all the

information they needed to vote. However, undecided voters were less confident, suggesting there is a need to provide these respondents with all the relevant election and voting information, as a way of encouraging them to vote.

• Respondents indicated that they would like to receive information about the elections on their mobile phones, via the Internet and through mobile apps. This is supported by the fact that many respondents claimed that they use social media (like Facebook, Mxit and Twitter) as a means of making their voices heard.

Insights (continued)

Civic Education (continued) • Nearly 2 in 3 respondents did not know what “proportional representation” meant,

suggesting a high level of ignorance of the democratic process. This presents an opportunity to find a way of effectively educating younger South Africans in this regard.

• Even though younger South Africans claim to have sufficient information on voting, there is a clear knowledge gap that exists.

Community Interaction• More than half of respondents were not aware that they had MPs and MPLs representing

their area. Among those who were aware, there appears to be limited community interaction occurring between these representatives and the public.

• This lack of awareness further compounds the gap in young South Africans’ knowledge of the elections and voting.

Insights (continued)

Civic Engagement • Despite the apparent voting apathy and lack of knowledge, respondents claim to be

engaging in civic activities, with voters being particularly active in making sure their voices are heard.

• Non-voters are less likely to participate in civic activities. This may be the result of some people feeling as though neither their vote, nor their voice will make a difference.

Conclusion• Overall, there appears to be high voter apathy, exacerbated by the apparent knowledge

gap surrounding the elections and ignorance of some of the building blocks of the democratic process.

• There is a need for an educational program targeted towards younger South Africans, to educate people and provide them with access to all the relevant election and voting information.

• Mobile phones and mobile applications appear to be the best way for communicating this type of information effectively.

For more information on this study or other Freedom House research on South Africa, please contact Cathal

Gilbert, Project Director gilbert@freedomhouse.org